A machine-learning prediction model to identify risk of firearm injury using electronic health records data.

IMPORTANCE: Firearm injuries constitute a public health crisis. At the healthcare encounter level, they are, however, rare events. OBJECTIVE: To develop a predictive model to identify healthcare encounters of adult patients at increased risk of firearm injury to target screening and prevention efforts. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Electronic health records data from Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) were used to identify healthcare encounters of patients with fatal and non-fatal firearm injuries, as well as healthcare visits of a sample of matched controls during 2010-2018. More than 170 predictors, including diagnoses, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood characteristics were identified. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a split sample design were used to train and test a model that predicted risk of firearm injury within the next 3 years at the encounter level. RESULTS: A total of 3879 firearm injuries were identified among 5 288 529 KPSC adult members. Prevalence at the healthcare encounter level was 0.01%. The 15 most important predictors included demographics, healthcare utilization, and neighborhood-level socio-economic factors. The sensitivity and specificity of the final model were 0.83 and 0.56, respectively. A very high-risk group (top 1% of predicted risk) yielded a positive predictive value of 0.14% and sensitivity of 13%. This high-risk group potentially reduces screening burden by a factor of 11.7, compared to universal screening. Results for alternative probability cutoffs are presented. DISCUSSION: Our model can support more targeted screening in healthcare settings, resulting in improved efficiency of firearm injury risk assessment and prevention efforts.

City-Level Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes and Youth Body Mass Index Percentile.

Importance: Levying excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) distributors, which are subsequently passed on to consumers, is a policy implemented to reduce the high prevalence of cardiometabolic disease and generate public health funding. Taxes are associated with lower SSB purchases and consumption, but it is unknown whether they are associated with weight-related outcomes in youth. Objective: To determine the association of SSB excise taxes with youth body mass index (BMI) trajectories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study was conducted from 2009 to 2020, including 6 years before tax implementation and 4 to 6 years after tax implementation. The California cities of Albany, Berkeley, Oakland, and San Francisco, which implemented SSB excise taxes, were compared against 40 demographically matched control cities in California. Participants included Kaiser Permanente members aged 2 to 19 years at cohort entry (baseline) with continuous residence in selected cities with at least 1 pretax and 1 posttax BMI recorded in their electronic health record. Data analysis was performed from January 2021 to May 2023. Exposure: Implementation of SSB excise taxes. Main Outcomes and Measures: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention age-specific and sex-specific BMI percentiles and percentage of youth with overweight or obesity before tax implementation through 4 to 6 years after implementation were compared with control cities. Statistical analysis was conducted using the difference-in-differences (DID) method. A sensitivity analysis used the synthetic control method. Results: A total of 44 771 youth (mean [SD] age at baseline, 6.4 [4.2] years; 22 337 female [49.9%]) resided in the cities with SSB taxes; 345 428 youth (mean [SD] age, 6.9 [4.2] years; 171 0168 female [49.5%]) resided in control cities. There was a -1.64-percentage point (95% CI, -3.10 to -0.17 percentage points) overall difference in the mean change of BMI percentile between exposure and control cities after SSB tax implementation. There was no significant overall difference in the percentage of youth with overweight or obesity or youth with obesity compared with control cities. All DID estimates were significant for youth residing in exposure cities in terms of BMI percentile (age 2-5 years in 2017, -2.06 percentage points [95% CI, -4.04 to -0.09 percentage points]; age 6-11 years in 2017, -2.79 percentage points [95% CI, -4.29 to -1.30 percentage points]), percentages of youth with overweight or obesity (age 2-5 years, -5.46 percentage points [95% CI, -8.47 to -2.44 percentage points]; age 6-11 years, -4.23 percentage points [95% CI, -6.90 to -1.57 percentage points]), and percentages of youth with obesity (age 2-5 years; -1.87 percentage points [95% CI, -3.36 to -0.38 percentage points]; age 6-11 years, -1.85 percentage points [95% CI, -3.46 to -0.24 percentage points]). Compared with control cities, changes in mean BMI percentiles were significant for male (-1.98 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.48 to -0.48 percentage points), Asian (-1.63 percentage points; 95% CI, -3.10 to -0.16 percentage points), and White (-2.58 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.11 to -1.10 percentage points) youth. Compared with control cities, White youth in exposure cities had improvements in the percentage with overweight or obesity (-3.73 percentage points; 95% CI, -6.11 to -1.35 percentage points) and the percentage with obesity (-2.78 percentage points; 95% CI, -4.18 to -1.37 percentage points). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, SSB excise taxes were associated with lower BMI percentile among youth. Policymakers should consider implementing SSB excise taxes to prevent or reduce youth overweight and obesity and, ultimately, chronic disease, particularly among children younger than 12 years.

The Effect of City-Level Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Longitudinal HbA1c and Incident Diabetes in Adults With Prediabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Prediabetes, which is a condition characterized by higher-than-normal blood glucose levels that are under the threshold for diabetes, impacts over one-third of U.S. adults. Excise taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are a proposed policy intervention to lower population consumption of SSBs and generate revenue to support health-related programs, thus potentially delaying or preventing the development of diabetes in individuals with prediabetes. We leveraged data from Kaiser Permanente in California to examine the impact of SSB taxes in California on individual-level mean HbA1c levels and rates of incident diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared two outcomes, mean HbA1c levels and rates of incident diabetes, among a matched cohort of adults with prediabetes who lived and did not live in SSB excise tax cities, using outcomes collected in the 6 years prior and 4 years following SSB tax implementation. We used multivariable linear mixed effects models to analyze longitudinal mean HbA1c and discrete-time survival models for incident diabetes. RESULTS: We included 68,658 adults in the analysis. In adjusted models, longitudinal mean HbA1c was 0.007% (95% CI 0.002, 0.011) higher in the tax cities compared with control individuals; while the estimated difference was statistically significant, it was not clinically significant (HbA1c <0.5%). There was no significant difference in the risk of incident diabetes between individuals living in tax and control cities. CONCLUSIONS: We found no clinically significant association between SSB taxes and either longitudinal mean HbA1c or incident diabetes among adults with prediabetes in the 4 years following SSB tax implementation.

Prevalence of Adolescents Meeting Criteria for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The American Academy of Pediatrics endorses metabolic and bariatric surgery (MBS) as a safe and effective treatment of severe obesity in children with class 3 obesity or with class 2 obesity and qualifying comorbidities. The study objective was to determine eligibility and characteristics of adolescents who qualify for MBS based on American Academy of Pediatrics guidelines. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study analyzed electronic health record data of 603 051 adolescents aged 13 to 17 years between January 1, 2018, and December 31, 2021. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention criteria were used to define obesity classes 2 and 3. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate the factors associated with meeting MBS eligibility criteria. RESULTS: Of the 603 041 adolescents evaluated, 22.2% had obesity (12.9% class 1, 5.4% class 2, and 3.9% class 3). The most frequently diagnosed comorbid conditions were gastroesophageal reflux disease (3.2%), hypertension (0.5%), and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (0.5%). Among adolescents with class 2 obesity, 9.1% had 1 or more comorbidities qualifying for MBS, and 4.4% of all adolescents met the eligibility criteria for MBS. In multivariable modeling, males, Black and Hispanic adolescents, and those living in more deprived neighborhoods were more likely to meet MBS eligibility criteria. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, 1 in 23 adolescents met the eligibility criteria for MBS. Demographic and social determinants were associated with a higher risk for meeting these criteria. The study suggests that the health care system may face challenges in accommodating the demand for MBS among eligible adolescents.

Adverse childhood experiences screening in healthcare settings: A focus on pediatric primary care.

BACKGROUND: Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) screening in healthcare settings is emerging as one of the tangible responses to address the consistent evidence linking ACEs with health. Kaiser Permanente Southern California (KPSC) began ACEs screening in pediatric primary care in 2018 and has developed screening and referral processes based on continued feedback from stakeholders as well as data driven assessment. OBJECTIVE: We give an overview of the state of ACEs screening in pediatric healthcare settings, challenges facing pediatric providers, and suggestions to address them. We then describe the development of our ACEs screening and referral process within KPSC as an example of how a large healthcare system has implemented and adapted ACEs screening from pilot testing, to phased expansion, to complete implementation. PARTICIPANTS AND SETTING: Children aged 2-18 years old who were members of KPSC 2018-2023. RESULTS: We present data on the tailored screening and referral workflows we have developed, rates of positive screens and referrals, and how the initiation of ACEs screening may affect the rates of visit to behavioral health as a treatment option. We also integrate qualitative data to demonstrate the perspective of parents, with the goal of understanding what might help or hinder receipt of behavioral health treatment after ACEs screening. CONCLUSIONS: We close with future directions for ACEs screening in healthcare settings and considerations for pediatric healthcare providers who may want to begin ACEs screening or adapt their screening and referral processes.

Trends in firearm injury in a southern California health care system from 2010 to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Firearm injury is a significant public health concern in the United States. METHODS: Data on fatal and nonfatal firearm injuries were obtained from a cohort of N = 7,473,650 members of Kaiser Permanente Southern California, a large integrated healthcare system between 2010 and 2020. Age-adjusted rates of combined fatal and nonfatal firearm injury per 100,000 members were calculated by year, with the 2010 US census as the reference population. Trends were evaluated using Poisson or negative binomial regression. RESULTS: There was an increasing trend in overall firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system (p < .0001), primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries (p < .0001). Self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time (p = .01). Injuries among youth showed no significant change. CONCLUSION: There was an increasing trend in firearm injuries between 2010 and 2020 among adults in this large integrated healthcare system, primarily driven by non-self-inflicted firearm injuries; however, self-inflicted injuries decreased during this time. Injuries among youth showed no significant change.

Higher body mass index after intrapartum antibiotic exposure in children persists over 10-years.

Exposure to intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis to reduce perinatal group B streptococcal disease was associated with increased childhood body mass index (BMI) persisting to age 10 years compared to no exposure (Δ BMI at 10 years: vaginal delivery 0.14 kg/m2 , caesarean 0.40 kg/m2 ).

Association of High Normal Body Weight in Youths With Risk of Hypertension.

Importance: Ample evidence links obesity to hypertension in youths. However, the association of high normal body mass index (BMI) with obesity and the interaction with different weight trajectories are not well understood. Objective: To examine the hypertension risk associated with high normal BMI for age and different weight trajectories in youths. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study assessed 801 019 youths aged 3 to 17 years in an integrated health care system in Southern California from January 1, 2008, to February 28, 2015, with a maximum follow-up of 5 years from January 1, 2008, to February 28, 2020. Data analysis was performed from 2018 to 2022. Exposures: Youths were compared by first available (baseline) sex-specific BMI for age and change in the distance to the median BMI for age during the 5-year follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazards regression models with age as a time scale to assess hypertension risk (based on 2017 Blood Pressure Guidelines by the American Academy of Pediatrics from 3 consecutive independent visits), adjusted for sex, race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline year, and birth year. Results: A total of 801 019 youths (mean [SD] age, 9.4 [4.6] years; 409 167 [51.1%] female]; 59 399 [7.4%] Asian and Pacific Islanders, 65 712 [8.2%] Black, and 427 492 [53.4%] Hispanic) were studied. Compared with youths with a baseline BMI for age in the 40th to 59th percentiles, the adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for hypertension within a maximum of 5 years was 1.26 (95% CI, 1.20-1.33) for youths between the 60th and 84th percentiles if they maintained their BMI for age. With every 1-unit annual increase in the distance to the median BMI for age, the aHR increased by 1.04 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05). The aHR was 4.94 (95% CI, 4.72-5.18) in youths with a baseline BMI for age in the 97th percentile or higher who maintained their body weight. Weight gain increased the risk associated with baseline BMI for age in the 97th percentile or higher with an aHR of 1.04 (95% CI, 1.04-1.05) per 1-unit annual increase in the distance to the median BMI for age. The risk associated with weight change was higher in youths living with low to high normal weight and overweight than in youths living with severe obesity. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of youths, high normal body weight above the 60th percentile of BMI for age was associated with increased risk of hypertension. Weight gain was associated with further increases in hypertension risk. Further research is needed to evaluate the wide range of body weight considered normal in youths and the health risks associated with high normal weight.

Factors Associated With Firearm Injury Among Pediatric Members of a Large Integrated Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Few studies have tested multiple socio-ecological risk factors assocated with firearm injury among pediatric populations and distinguished self-inflicted from non-self-inflicted injury. To address this gap, the current study examined demographic, individual psychosocial, and neighborhood variables as risk factors for firearm injury among a large cohort of children and adolescents. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study. Data were obtained from the electronic health records of a large integrated healthcare system. The cohort included children <18 years with at least one clinical encounter between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2018. Poisson regression was used to examine demographic (age, gender, race and ethnicity, Medicaid status), psychosocial (depression, substance use disorder, medical comorbidities), and neighborhood education variables as potential risk factors for non-self-inflicted and self-inflicted firearm injuries. RESULTS: For non-self-inflicted injury, the highest relative risk was found for children age 12-17 years old compared to 0-5 year olds (RR = 37.57); other risk factors included male gender, Black and Hispanic race and ethnicity (compared to White race), being a Medicaid recipient, lower neighborhood education, and substance use disorder diagnosis. For self-inflicted injury, only age 12-17 years old and male gender were associated with increased risk. CONCLUSIONS: These results reinforce the established higher risk for firearm injury among adolescent males, highlight differences between self-inflicted and non-self-inflicted injuries, and the need to consider demographic, psychosocial, and neighborhood variables as risk factors to inform interventions aimed to reduce firearm injuries among children and adolescents.

Disparities in weight changes during the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown in youths.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluates whether changes in weight among school-aged youth in California due to the COVID-19 lockdown vary by social constructs of race/ethnicity and associated social factors. METHODS: Including 160,472 youth aged 5 to 17 years enrolled at Kaiser Permanente Southern California, mixed effects models stratified by age group were fitted to estimate changes in distance from the median BMI-for-age from March 2020 to January 2021 (lockdown) compared with the same period before the pandemic. RESULTS: Excess pandemic weight gain was higher among Black and Hispanic youth aged 5 to 17 years than among White and Asian youth; this difference was most pronounced in those aged 5 to 11 years. In youth aged 5 to 11 years, the distance from the median BMI-for-age increased by 1.72 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.61-1.84) in Hispanic and 1.70 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.47-1.94) in Black youth during the lockdown compared with 1.16 kg/m2 (95% CI: 1.02-1.29) in non-Hispanic White youth. The excess weight gain was also higher in youth with fewer neighborhood parks and those with state-subsidized health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic lockdown led to a gain of excess body weight, particularly for Black and Hispanic youth; this weight gain varied by social factors associated with race and ethnicity.

Assessment of Screening for Adverse Childhood Experiences and Receipt of Behavioral Health Services Among Children and Adolescents.

Importance: Screening for adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in primary care settings has been increasing as a response to the overwhelming and consistent evidence of the deleterious associations between ACEs and later physical and mental health. However, there is little empirical guidance on the appropriate implementation of ACEs screening in pediatric primary care. Objective: To test the use of a pilot intervention for ACEs screening and referral on the receipt of behavioral health care for children and adolescents within a large integrated health care delivery system. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in a large integrated health care system serving Southern California. Child and adolescent members of the target health care system younger than 18 years between July 1, 2018, and November 30, 2021, who received a positive screening for ACEs at the pilot clinic were included. This pilot clinic implemented an intervention that included additional screening questions and incorporated social workers into the process of evaluation and referral for behavioral health needs following ACEs screening. Exposures: ACEs screening. Main Outcomes and Measures: Visit to a behavioral health care service within 90 days of a positive ACEs screen determined as a score of 1 or higher and behavioral symptoms. Results: The cohort consisted of 4030 children (mean [SD] age, 9.94 [4.55] years) with positive ACEs screening, 48% adolescents (11-17.99 years), approximately equal gender (51% females), 73% Hispanic, and 33% with Medicaid insurance. After the intervention, children were more likely to have a behavioral health services visit within 90 days of the screening than before the intervention (from 4.33% to 32.48%; incidence rate ratio, 7.50; 95% CI, 1.55-36.2). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, the implementation of a new ACEs screening and referral process was associated with increased receipt of behavioral health services among children with a positive ACEs screening. This could be useful strategy for other health care systems responding to state and local mandates to screen and provide care for children with ACEs.

Ambient Air Pollutant Exposures and COVID-19 Severity and Mortality in a Cohort of Patients with COVID-19 in Southern California.

Rationale: Ecological studies have shown air pollution associations with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outcomes. However, few cohort studies have been conducted. Objectives: To conduct a cohort study investigating the association between air pollution and COVID-19 severity using individual-level data from the electronic medical record. Methods: This cohort included all individuals who received diagnoses of COVID-19 from Kaiser Permanente Southern California between March 1 and August 31, 2020. One-year and 1-month averaged ambient air pollutant (particulate matter ⩽2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter [PM2.5], NO2, and O3) exposures before COVID-19 diagnosis were estimated on the basis of residential address history. Outcomes included COVID-19-related hospitalizations, intensive respiratory support (IRS), and ICU admissions within 30 days and mortality within 60 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Covariates included socioeconomic characteristics and comorbidities. Measurements and Main Results: Among 74,915 individuals (mean age, 42.5 years; 54% women; 66% Hispanic), rates of hospitalization, IRS, ICU admission, and mortality were 6.3%, 2.4%, 1.5%, and 1.5%, respectively. Using multipollutant models adjusted for covariates, 1-year PM2.5 and 1-month NO2 average exposures were associated with COVID-19 severity. The odds ratios associated with a 1-SD increase in 1-year PM2.5 (SD, 1.5 µg/m3) were 1.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.32) for COVID-19-related hospitalization, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.20-1.47) for IRS, and 1.32 (95% CI, 1.16-1.51) for ICU admission; the corresponding odds ratios associated with 1-month NO2 (SD, 3.3 ppb) were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.06-1.17) for hospitalization, 1.18 (95% CI, 1.10-1.27) for IRS, and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.11-1.33) for ICU admission. The hazard ratios for mortality were 1.14 (95% CI, 1.02-1.27) for 1-year PM2.5 and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.98-1.16) for 1-month NO2. No significant interactions with age, sex or ethnicity were observed. Conclusions: Ambient PM2.5 and NO2 exposures may affect COVID-19 severity and mortality.

Ambient air pollution and COVID-19 incidence during four 2020-2021 case surges.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposure may make people more vulnerable to COVID-19 infection. However, previous studies in this area mostly focused on infection before May 2020 and long-term exposure. OBJECTIVE: To assess both long-term and short-term exposure to air pollution and COVID-19 incidence across four case surges from 03/1/2020 to 02/28/2021. METHODS: The cohort included 4.6 million members from a large integrated health care system in southern California with comprehensive electronic medical records (EMR). COVID-19 cases were identified from EMR. Incidence of COVID-19 was computed at the census tract-level among members. Prior 1-month and 1-year averaged air pollutant levels (PM2.5, NO2, and O3) at the census tract-level were estimated based on hourly and daily air quality data. Data analyses were conducted by each wave: 3/1/2020-5/31/2020, 6/1/202-9/30/2020, 10/1/2020-12/31/2020, and 1/1/2021-2/28/2021 and pooled across waves using meta-analysis. Generalized linear mixed effects models with Poisson distribution and spatial autocorrelation were used with adjustment for meteorological factors and census tract-level social and health characteristics. Results were expressed as relative risk (RR) per 1 standard deviation. RESULTS: The cohort included 446,440 COVID-19 cases covering 4609 census tracts. The pooled RRs (95% CI) of COVID-19 incidence associated with 1-year exposures to PM2.5, NO2, and O3 were 1.11 (1.04, 1.18) per 2.3 µg/m3,1.09 (1.02, 1.17) per 3.2 ppb, and 1.06 (1.00, 1.12) per 5.5 ppb respectively. The corresponding RRs (95% CI) associated with prior 1-month exposures were 1.11 (1.03, 1.20) per 5.2 µg/m3 for PM2.5, 1.09 (1.01, 1.17) per 6.0 ppb for NO2 and 0.96 (0.85, 1.08) per 12.0 ppb for O3. CONCLUSION: Long-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were associated with increased risk of COVID-19 incidence across all case surges before February 2021. Short-term PM2.5 and NO2 exposures were also associated. Our findings suggest that air pollution may play a role in increasing the risk of COVID-19 infection.

The longitudinal associations of physical activity, time spent outdoors in nature and symptoms of depression and anxiety during COVID-19 quarantine and social distancing in the United States.

Stressors associated with COVID-19 pandemic stay-at-home orders are associated with increased depression and anxiety and decreased physical activity. Given that physical activity and time spent outdoors in nature are associated with improved mental health, we examined the longitudinal association of these variables during the pandemic. Over 20,000 adults who participated in the U.S. Kaiser Permanente Research Bank, did not report COVID-19 symptoms, and responded to an online baseline and 3 follow-up surveys over approximately 3 months formed the cohort. Physical activity was assessed from a modified survey, time spent outdoors was assessed from one question, and anxiety and depression scores were assessed from validated instruments. Almost 60% were women, 82.8% were non-Hispanic white, and more than 93% of respondents were over the age of 50. Less in-person contact with friends and visiting crowded places was highly prevalent (>80%) initially and decreased somewhat (>70%). Participants in the lowest physical activity category (no physical activity) had the highest depression and anxiety scores compared to each successive physical activity category (p < 0.001). Spending less time outdoors was associated with higher depression and anxiety scores. This effect was greater for participants in the younger age categories compared with older age categories. The effect of less time spent outdoors on anxiety (p = 0.012) and depression (p < 0.001) scores was smaller for males than females. Results suggest that physical activity and time outdoors is associated with better mental health. People should be encouraged to continue physical activity participation during public health emergencies.

Classification system of graft tears following superior capsule reconstruction.

OBJECTIVE: Superior capsule reconstruction (SCR) is a treatment option for irreparable massive rotator cuff tears (MRCT). The purpose of this study is to describe a classification system for graft integrity and tear location. METHODS: Patients who underwent SCR at a single institution were included. Pre-operative age, gender, prior surgery, Hamada grade, and Goutallier stage were recorded. An MRI was performed postoperatively to assess graft integrity and tear location. RESULTS: 53 patients met inclusion criteria. Mean age was 60.1 ± 7.9 years. A post-operative MRI was performed in 42 (80%) patients at a mean of 14 ± 7 months (range, 6-40 months). MRIs demonstrated an intact graft in 16 (38%) shoulders. Of the 26 graft tears, 14 (54%) were from the glenoid, 5 (19%) mid-substance, 6 (23%) from the tuberosity, and 1 (3.8%) had complete graft absence. CONCLUSION: Graft tears are common following SCR. We describe four different graft tear locations and submit a classification system that can be used in future studies to better compare outcomes based on graft integrity and tear location. Clinical correlation with graft integrity and graft tear location needs to be further investigated.

Self-Reported Physical Activity and Asthma Risk in Children.

BACKGROUND: Increased physical activity (PA) may protect against asthma but PA can trigger asthma symptoms. OBJECTIVE: To investigate relationships between moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) assessed during routine care visits and incident asthma. METHODS: For this retrospective cohort, 542,486 children between 2 and 17 years from 2010 to 2017 were included who had an MVPA assessment (exercise vital sign) during routine care visits. The association of MVPA and asthma was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression models as a function of age, with MVPA and body mass index (BMI) being time-varying factors, adjusted for race and ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and air pollution. RESULTS: The mean MVPA was 5.4 (standard deviation: 4.4) hours/week. Crude asthma incidence density rate (IDR) was highest in children with <1 hour/week of MVPA (IDR: 9.07, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 8.79, 9.36) and lowest in children engaging in 4 to 7 hours/week of MVPA (IDR: 6.55, 95% CI: 6.33, 6.77). In adjusted models, an increase in MVPA was associated with lower asthma risk in children reporting 0 hour/week of MVPA (hazard ratio: 0.981, 95% CI: 0.973, 0.990). In children with ≥8 hours/week of MVPA, an increase in MVPA was associated with higher asthma risk (1.005, 95% CI: 1.002, 1.009). There was no significant BMI by MVPA interaction. CONCLUSION: Increasing MVPA in children with low activity levels is associated with lower asthma risk; children reporting high levels of activity may experience greater asthma risk as their activity levels increase further. Understanding the role of PA in the development of asthma and assessing MVPA during routine care visits in children may help to develop targeted interventions and guide asthma management.

Near-roadway air pollution associated with COVID-19 severity and mortality - Multiethnic cohort study in Southern California.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution exposure has been associated with increased risk of COVID-19 incidence and mortality by ecological analyses. Few studies have investigated the specific effect of traffic-related air pollution on COVID-19 severity. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the associations of near-roadway air pollution (NRAP) exposure with COVID-19 severity and mortality using individual-level exposure and outcome data. METHODS: The retrospective cohort includes 75,010 individuals (mean age 42.5 years, 54% female, 66% Hispanic) diagnosed with COVID-19 at Kaiser Permanente Southern California between 3/1/2020-8/31/2020. NRAP exposures from both freeways and non-freeways during 1-year prior to the COVID-19 diagnosis date were estimated based on residential address history using the CALINE4 line source dispersion model. Primary outcomes include COVID-19 severity defined as COVID-19-related hospitalizations, intensive respiratory support (IRS), intensive care unit (ICU) admissions within 30 days, and mortality within 60 days after COVID-19 diagnosis. Covariates including socio-characteristics and comorbidities were adjusted for in the analysis. RESULT: One standard deviation (SD) increase in 1-year-averaged non-freeway NRAP (0.5 ppb NOx) was associated with increased odds of COVID-19-related IRS and ICU admission [OR (95% CI): 1.07 (1.01, 1.13) and 1.11 (1.04, 1.19) respectively] and increased risk of mortality (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.03, 1.18). The associations of non-freeway NRAP with COVID-19 outcomes were largely independent of the effect of regional fine particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide exposures. These associations were generally consistent across age, sex, and race/ethnicity subgroups. The associations of freeway and total NRAP with COVID-19 severity and mortality were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Data from this multiethnic cohort suggested that NRAP, particularly non-freeway exposure in Southern California, may be associated with increased risk of COVID-19 severity and mortality among COVID-19 infected patients. Future studies are needed to assess the impact of emerging COVID-19 variants and chemical components from freeway and non-freeway NRAP.