Modeling net ecosystem carbon balance and loss in coastal wetlands exposed to sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion.

Coastal wetlands are globally important stores of carbon (C). However, accelerated sea-level rise (SLR), increased saltwater intrusion, and modified freshwater discharge can contribute to the collapse of peat marshes, converting coastal peatlands into open water. Applying results from multiple experiments from sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense)-dominated freshwater and brackish water marshes in the Florida Coastal Everglades, we developed a system-level mechanistic peat elevation model (EvPEM). We applied the model to simulate net ecosystem C balance (NECB) and peat elevation in response to elevated salinity under inundation and drought exposure. Using a mass C balance approach, we estimated net gain in C and corresponding export of aquatic fluxes ( F AQ $$ {F}_{\mathrm{AQ}} $$ ) in the freshwater marsh under ambient conditions (NECB = 1119 ± 229 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 317 ± 186 gC m-2  year-1 ). In contrast, the brackish water marsh exhibited substantial peat loss and aquatic C export with ambient (NECB = -366 ± 15 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 311 ± 30 gC m-2  year-1 ) and elevated salinity (NECB = -594 ± 94 gC m-2  year-1 ; FAQ  = 729 ± 142 gC m-2  year-1 ) under extended exposed conditions. Further, mass balance suggests a considerable decline in soil C and corresponding elevation loss with elevated salinity and seasonal dry-down. Applying EvPEM, we developed critical marsh net primary productivity (NPP) thresholds as a function of salinity to simulate accumulating, steady-state, and collapsing peat elevations. The optimization showed that ~150-1070 gC m-2  year-1 NPP could support a stable peat elevation (elevation change ≈ SLR), with the corresponding salinity ranging from 1 to 20 ppt under increasing inundation levels. The C budgeting and modeling illustrate the impacts of saltwater intrusion, inundation, and seasonal dry-down and reduce uncertainties in understanding the fate of coastal peat wetlands with SLR and freshwater restoration. The modeling results provide management targets for hydrologic restoration based on the ecological conditions needed to reduce the vulnerability of the Everglades' peat marshes to collapse. The approach can be extended to other coastal peatlands to quantify C loss and improve understanding of the influence of the biological controls on wetland C storage changes for coastal management.

Migration and transformation of coastal wetlands in response to rising seas.

Coastal wetlands are not only among the world's most valued ecosystems but also among the most threatened by high greenhouse gas emissions that lead to accelerated sea level rise. There is intense debate regarding the extent to which landward migration of wetlands might compensate for seaward wetland losses. By integrating data from 166 estuaries across the conterminous United States, we show that landward migration of coastal wetlands will transform coastlines but not counter seaward losses. Two-thirds of potential migration is expected to occur at the expense of coastal freshwater wetlands, while the remaining one-third is expected to occur at the expense of valuable uplands, including croplands, forests, pastures, and grasslands. Our analyses underscore the need to better prepare for coastal transformations and net wetland loss due to rising seas.

Assessing coastal wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast: Gaps and opportunities for developing a coordinated regional sampling network.

Coastal wetland responses to sea-level rise are greatly influenced by biogeomorphic processes that affect wetland surface elevation. Small changes in elevation relative to sea level can lead to comparatively large changes in ecosystem structure, function, and stability. The surface elevation table-marker horizon (SET-MH) approach is being used globally to quantify the relative contributions of processes affecting wetland elevation change. Historically, SET-MH measurements have been obtained at local scales to address site-specific research questions. However, in the face of accelerated sea-level rise, there is an increasing need for elevation change network data that can be incorporated into regional ecological models and vulnerability assessments. In particular, there is a need for long-term, high-temporal resolution data that are strategically distributed across ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients. Here, we quantify the distribution of SET-MH stations along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast (USA) across political boundaries (states), wetland habitats, and ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients (i.e., gradients in temperature, precipitation, elevation, and relative sea-level rise). Our analyses identify areas with high SET-MH station densities as well as areas with notable gaps. Salt marshes, intermediate elevations, and colder areas with high rainfall have a high number of stations, while salt flat ecosystems, certain elevation zones, the mangrove-marsh ecotone, and hypersaline coastal areas with low rainfall have fewer stations. Due to rapid rates of wetland loss and relative sea-level rise, the state of Louisiana has the most extensive SET-MH station network in the region, and we provide several recent examples where data from Louisiana's network have been used to assess and compare wetland vulnerability to sea-level rise. Our findings represent the first attempt to examine spatial gaps in SET-MH coverage across abiotic gradients. Our analyses can be used to transform a broadly disseminated and unplanned collection of SET-MH stations into a coordinated and strategic regional network. This regional network would provide data for predicting and preparing for the responses of coastal wetlands to accelerated sea-level rise and other aspects of global change.

Structural instability, multiple stable states, and hysteresis in periphyton driven by phosphorus enrichment in the Everglades.

Periphyton is a key component of the Everglades ecosystems. It is a major primary producer, providing food and habitat for a variety of organisms, contributing material to the surface soil, and regulating water chemistry. Periphyton is sensitive to the phosphorus (P) supply and P enrichment has caused dramatic changes in the native Everglades periphyton assemblages. Periphyton also affects P availability by removing P from the water column and depositing a refractory portion into sediment. A quantitative understanding of the response of periphyton assemblages to P supply and its effects on P cycling could provide critical supports to decision making in the conservation and restoration of the Everglades. We constructed a model to examine the interaction between periphyton and P dynamics. The model contains two differential equations: P uptake and periphyton growth are assumed to follow the Monod equation and are limited by a modified logistic equation. Equilibrium and stability analyses suggest that P loading is the driving force and determines the system behavior. The position and number of steady states and the stability also depend upon the rate of sloughing, through which periphyton deposits refractory P into sediment. Multiple equilibria may exist, with two stable equilibria separated by an unstable equilibrium. Due to nonlinear interplay of periphyton and P in this model, catastrophe and hysteresis are likely to occur.