Social contact and the perceived impact of social distancing on health outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic among community dwelling older adults taking part in the OPAL cohort study.

BACKGROUND: During the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing and reduced social contact may have affected older adults' health. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the perceived impact of social distancing on older adults' health and explore the association between social contact and health outcomes. DESIGN: Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses of the OPAL cohort study. SUBJECTS: Community dwelling older adults. METHODS: We sent questionnaires to participants of an existing cohort study (n = 4328). Questions included the amount and type of social contact, and how often they went outside. Participants rated the impact of social distancing on their health. Sociodemographic factors and quality of life were available from previous questionnaires. We examined quality of life prior to and during the pandemic and explored the cross-sectional relationship between social contact and health using logistic regression. RESULTS: There were 3856/4328 (89%) questionnaires returned. EQ-5D scores changed little compared to pre-pandemic scores but 25% of participants reported their overall health had worsened. The telephone was the most used method of contact (78%). Video calls were used least with 35% of participants not using them or having no access to them. 13% of respondents never went outside. Lower levels of contact were associated with increased risk of reporting worse health (Odds ratio (OR) 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.08)). Those experiencing financial strain and who spent less time outside experienced the largest increase in risk of reporting perceived worsened overall health. Those reporting a strain to get by financially were 4 times more likely to report worsened health than those who described themselves as quite comfortably off (OR 4.00 (95% CI 1.86-8.16)). Participants who reported never going outside were twice as likely to report worsened health compared to those who went outside daily (OR 2.00 (95% CI 1.57-2.54)). CONCLUSIONS: Less contact with other people was associated with perceived worsening in overall health. Although many older people reported using online technology, such as video calls, a substantial proportion were not using them. Older people facing financial strain were more likely to report worsened health, highlighting the impact of social inequalities during the pandemic. Going outside less was also associated with perceived worsened health.

Development and validation of a prediction model for self-reported mobility decline in community-dwelling older adults.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to develop and validate two models to predict 2-year risk of self-reported mobility decline among community-dwelling older adults. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We used data from a prospective cohort study of people aged 65 years and over in England. Mobility status was assessed using the EQ-5D-5L mobility question. The models were based on the outcome: Model 1, any mobility decline at 2 years; Model 2, new onset of persistent mobility problems over 2 years. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator logistic regression was used to select predictors. Model performance was assessed using C-statistics, calibration plot, Brier scores, and decision curve analyses. Models were internally validated using bootstrapping. RESULTS: Over 18% of participants who could walk reported mobility decline at year 2 (Model 1), and 7.1% with no mobility problems at baseline, reported new onset of mobility problems after 2 years (Model 2). Thirteen and 6 out of 31 variables were selected as predictors in Models 1 and 2, respectively. Models 1 and 2 had a C-statistic of 0.740 and 0.765 (optimism < 0.013), and Brier score = 0.136 and 0.069, respectively. CONCLUSION: Two prediction models for mobility decline were developed and internally validated. They are based on self-reported variables and could serve as simple assessments in primary care after external validation.