Applications of systems modelling in obesity research.

Obesity is a complex system problem involving a broad spectrum of policy, social, economic, cultural, environmental, behavioural, and biological factors and the complex interrelated, cross-sector, non-linear, dynamic relationships among them. Systems modelling is an innovative approach with the potential for advancing obesity research. This study examined the applications of systems modelling in obesity research published between 2000 and 2017, examined how the systems models were developed and used in obesity studies and discussed related gaps in current research. We focused on the applications of two main systems modelling approaches: system dynamics modelling and agent-based modelling. The past two decades have seen a growing body of systems modelling in obesity research. The research topics ranged from micro-level to macro-level energy-balance-related behaviours and policies (19 studies), population dynamics (five studies), policy effect simulations (eight studies), environmental (10 studies) and social influences (15 studies) and their effects on obesity rates. Overall, systems analysis in public health research is still in its early stages, with limitations linked to model validity, mixed findings and its actual use in guiding interventions. Challenges in theory and modelling practices need to be addressed to realize the full potential of systems modelling in future obesity research and interventions.

Cyclosporin A effects during primary and secondary activation of human umbilical cord blood T lymphocytes.

OBJECTIVE: Cyclosporin A (CsA), effective in prophylaxis and treatment of graft-vs-host disease (GVHD) after human allogeneic transplantation, blunts T-cell responses by inhibiting nuclear factor of activated T cells-1 (NFAT1) activation. This laboratory has shown that NFAT1 protein expression is severely reduced in human UCB (umbilical cord blood) T cells. Since UCB is increasingly used as a hematopoietic stem cell source in allogeneic transplantation, it is important to determine whether CsA sensitivity in UCB differs from that of adult T cells. METHODS: Surface flow cytometric analysis, intracellular cytokine staining, flow cytometric analysis of cell death, and thymidine incorporation were used in this study to determine T-cell activation and effector functions during primary and secondary stimulation in the presence of CsA. RESULTS: Although we observed differential CsA sensitivity of T-cell activation marker (CD69, CD45RO, CD25) upregulation comparing UCB and adult, we did not observe any significant difference in CsA sensitivity of T-cell effector functions. Importantly, we observed reduced IFN-gamma and TNF-alpha expression in UCB T cells both in primary and secondary stimulation, as well as increased rates of activation-induced cell death (AICD). CONCLUSION: Thus, our studies do not support the previous hypothesis that reduced GVHD observed after UCB transplantation is attributable to increased CsA sensitivity of UCB T cells. Rather, reduced UCB T-cell cytokine production and increased AICD may be important cellular mechanisms underlying these favorable rates of GVHD in UCB transplant recipients.

Predictive value of lesions for relapses in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Recent studies have suggested that enhancing lesions on contrast-enhanced T1-weighted MR images are predictive of impending exacerbations in cases of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis. We examined whether enhancing lesions, new enhancing lesions, and new hypointense lesions ("black holes") could accurately predict exacerbations in a cohort of 50 patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis within a time frame of up to 6 months. METHODS: Data were obtained from 50 patients with relapsing-remitting disease. All patients underwent monthly MR imaging and clinical examinations for a period of 12 months. Putative predictors of clinical relapse were defined from enhancing lesions, new enhancing lesions, and new black hole outcomes, and their operating characteristics were studied. RESULTS: Overall, the positive predictive values (PV+) of enhancing lesions, new enhancing lesions, or new black holes for an exacerbation did not exceed 0.25 and the negative predictive values (PV-) were all near 0.9. The best predictor for new enhancing lesions was the occurrence of new enhancing lesions in each of the previous 3 months (PV+: 0.79 [95% confidence interval, 0.651-0.900]; PV-: 0.83 [95% confidence interval, 0.751-0.887]). Similarly, new black holes were predicted best by the occurrence of new black holes in each of the previous 2 months (PV+: 0.54 [95% confidence interval: 0.372-0.697]; PV-: 0.85 [95% confidence interval, 0.790-0.896]). CONCLUSION: None of the MR markers could predict an impending relapse with any reasonable degree of precision. Rather, the absence of MR markers is associated with a more favorable clinical course (ie, fewer relapses).

New hypointense lesions on MRI in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis patients.

BACKGROUND: Preliminary observational studies with multiple sclerosis (MS) patients have reported strong correlations between an increase in hypointense lesion load (black holes) on T1-weighted spin echo images, and an increase in disability. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the relationship of hypointense lesions to the clinical course of disease among 50 relapsing-remitting MS patients in the controlled setting of a randomized clinical trial. METHODS: Fifty patients with relapsing-remitting disease were enrolled in a randomized double-blind two-arm (cladribine vs. placebo) clinical trial of 1-year duration. All patients had monthly clinical evaluations and MRIs over the course of the trial. Multivariate techniques were used to identify predictors of clinical severity from information on exacerbations, MRIs, baseline clinical parameters, and demographics. RESULTS: At baseline, clinical severity is weakly related to counts of black holes, with rank correlations between counts and clinical scores (EDSS and SNRS) of absolute magnitude 0.3. Rates of appearance of new black holes over the course of the trial are higher for patients with more severe disease at baseline (EDSS > or = 4) than for the less severe patients. Changes in clinical severity over the course of the trial are best predicted by baseline neurologic scores and numbers of exacerbations, with black holes adding no further improvement in prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Numbers of exacerbations seem more critical to short-term clinical outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS, as reflected by patients' clinical scores, rather than black holes. Various imaging methods and MRI indices capture complementary information relating to MS disease processes. The determination of which processes are affected by different drugs should lead to more effective treatment of MS patients.

Hypointense and hyperintense lesions on magnetic resonance imaging in secondary-progressive MS patients.

Cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is widely used to monitor disease activity in clinical trials in multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study is to examine lesion burden as determined from hypointense regions on postcontrast T1-weighted scans (or black holes), and lesion burden on conventional T2-weighted scans, from a cohort of secondary progressive MS patients who participated in a placebo-controlled, randomized, double-blind cross-over trial assessing the therapeutic efficacy of cladribine. T2 lesion volumes and black hole volumes are approximately normal distributed when log-transformed, and are highly correlated (adjusted R2 = 0.63). Changes in clinical scores could be predicted with a reasonable degree of precision from baseline scores and changes in T2 lesion volumes (adjusted R2 values 0.52-0.7). Stratification schemes for clinical trials should include the acute proportion of the disease (enhancing T1 lesions), degree of permanent damage (black holes), and T2 lesion volume.