The next generation of iron fertilization experiments in the Southern Ocean.

Of the various macro-engineering schemes proposed to mitigate global warming, ocean iron fertilization (OIF) is one that could be started at short notice on relevant scales. It is based on the reasoning that adding trace amounts of iron to iron-limited phytoplankton of the Southern Ocean will lead to blooms, mass sinking of organic matter and ultimately sequestration of significant amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) in the deep sea and sediments. This iron hypothesis, proposed by John Martin in 1990 (Martin 1990 Paleoceanography 5, 1-13), has been tested by five mesoscale experiments that provided strong support for its first condition: stimulation of a diatom bloom accompanied by significant CO2 drawdown. Nevertheless, a number of arguments pertaining to the fate of bloom biomass, the ratio of iron added to carbon sequestered and various side effects of fertilization, continue to cast doubt on its efficacy. The idea is also unpopular with the public because it is perceived as meddling with nature. However, this apparent consensus against OIF is premature because none of the published experiments were specifically designed to test its second condition pertaining to the fate of iron-induced organic carbon. Furthermore, the arguments on side effects are based on worst-case scenarios. These doubts, formulated as hypotheses, need to be tested in the next generation of OIF experiments. We argue that such experiments, if carried out at appropriate scales and localities, will not only show whether the technique will work, but will also reveal a wealth of insights on the structure and functioning of pelagic ecosystems in general and the krill-based Southern Ocean ecosystem, in particular. The outcomes of current models on the efficacy and side effects of OIF differ widely, so data from adequately designed experiments are urgently needed for realistic parametrization. OIF is likely to boost zooplankton stocks, including krill, which could have a positive effect on recovery of the great whale populations. Negative effects of possible commercialization of OIF can be controlled by the establishment of an international body headed by scientists to supervise and monitor its implementation.

Mesoscale iron enrichment experiments 1993-2005: synthesis and future directions.

Since the mid-1980s, our understanding of nutrient limitation of oceanic primary production has radically changed. Mesoscale iron addition experiments (FeAXs) have unequivocally shown that iron supply limits production in one-third of the world ocean, where surface macronutrient concentrations are perennially high. The findings of these 12 FeAXs also reveal that iron supply exerts controls on the dynamics of plankton blooms, which in turn affect the biogeochemical cycles of carbon, nitrogen, silicon, and sulfur and ultimately influence the Earth climate system. However, extrapolation of the key results of FeAXs to regional and seasonal scales in some cases is limited because of differing modes of iron supply in FeAXs and in the modern and paleo-oceans. New research directions include quantification of the coupling of oceanic iron and carbon biogeochemistry.

The global carbon cycle: a test of our knowledge of earth as a system.

Motivated by the rapid increase in atmospheric CO2 due to human activities since the Industrial Revolution, several international scientific research programs have analyzed the role of individual components of the Earth system in the global carbon cycle. Our knowledge of the carbon cycle within the oceans, terrestrial ecosystems, and the atmosphere is sufficiently extensive to permit us to conclude that although natural processes can potentially slow the rate of increase in atmospheric CO2, there is no natural "savior" waiting to assimilate all the anthropogenically produced CO2 in the coming century. Our knowledge is insufficient to describe the interactions between the components of the Earth system and the relationship between the carbon cycle and other biogeochemical and climatological processes. Overcoming this limitation requires a systems approach.

Biogeochemical Controls and Feedbacks on Ocean Primary Production

Changes in oceanic primary production, linked to changes in the network of global biogeochemical cycles, have profoundly influenced the geochemistry of Earth for over 3 billion years. In the contemporary ocean, photosynthetic carbon fixation by marine phytoplankton leads to formation of approximately 45 gigatons of organic carbon per annum, of which 16 gigatons are exported to the ocean interior. Changes in the magnitude of total and export production can strongly influence atmospheric CO2 levels (and hence climate) on geological time scales, as well as set upper bounds for sustainable fisheries harvest. The two fluxes are critically dependent on geophysical processes that determine mixed-layer depth, nutrient fluxes to and within the ocean, and food-web structure. Because the average turnover time of phytoplankton carbon in the ocean is on the order of a week or less, total and export production are extremely sensitive to external forcing and consequently are seldom in steady state. Elucidating the biogeochemical controls and feedbacks on primary production is essential to understanding how oceanic biota responded to and affected natural climatic variability in the geological past, and will respond to anthropogenically influenced changes in coming decades. One of the most crucial feedbacks results from changes in radiative forcing on the hydrological cycle, which influences the aeolian iron flux and, in turn, affects nitrogen fixation and primary production in the oceans.