A workplace organisational intervention to improve hospital nurses' and physicians' mental health: study protocol for the Magnet4Europe wait list cluster randomised controlled trial.

INTRODUCTION: The increasing burden of mental distress reported by healthcare professionals is a matter of serious concern and there is a growing recognition of the role of the workplace in creating this problem. Magnet hospitals, a model shown to attract and retain staff in US research, creates positive work environments that aim to support the well-being of healthcare professionals. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Magnet4Europe is a cluster randomised controlled trial, with wait list controls, designed to evaluate the effects of organisational redesign, based on the Magnet model, on nurses' and physicians' well-being in general acute care hospitals, using a multicomponent implementation strategy. The study will be conducted in more than 60 general acute care hospitals in Belgium, England, Germany, Ireland, Norway and Sweden. The primary outcome is burnout among nurses and physicians, assessed in longitudinal surveys of nurses and physicians at participating hospitals. Additional data will be collected from them on perceived work environments, patient safety and patient quality of care and will be triangulated with data from medical records, including case mix-adjusted in-hospital mortality. The process of implementation will be evaluated using qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the Ethics Committee Research UZ/KU Leuven, Belgium; additionally, ethics approval is obtained in all other participating countries either through a central or decentral authority. Findings will be disseminated at conferences, through peer-reviewed manuscripts and via social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN10196901.

Hospital nurse staffing and patient outcomes in Chile: a multilevel cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Unrest in Chile over inequalities has underscored the need to improve public hospitals. Nursing has been overlooked as a solution to quality and access concerns, and nurse staffing is poor by international standards. Using Chile's new diagnosis-related groups system and surveys of nurses and patients, we provide information to policy makers on feasibility, net costs, and estimated improved outcomes associated with increasing nursing resources in public hospitals. METHODS: For this multilevel cross-sectional study, we used data from surveys of hospital nurses to measure staffing and work environments in public and private Chilean adult high-complexity hospitals, which were linked with patient satisfaction survey and discharge data from the national diagnosis-related groups database for inpatients. All adult patients on medical and surgical units whose conditions permitted and who had been hospitalised for more than 48 h were invited to participate in the patient experience survey until 50 responses were obtained in each hospital. We estimated associations between nurse staffing and work environment quality with inpatient 30-day mortality, 30-day readmission, length of stay (LOS), patient experience, and care quality using multilevel random-effects logistic regression models and zero-truncated negative binomial regression models, with clustering of patients within hospitals. FINDINGS: We collected and analysed surveys of 1652 hospital nurses from 40 hospitals (34 public and six private), satisfaction surveys of 2013 patients, and discharge data for 761 948 inpatients. Nurse staffing was significantly related to all outcomes, including mortality, after adjusting for patient characteristics, and the work environment was related to patient experience and nurses' quality assessments. Each patient added to nurses' workloads increased mortality (odds ratio 1·04, 95% CI 1·01-1·07, p<0·01), readmissions (1·02, 1·01-1·03, p<0·01), and LOS (incident rate ratio 1·04, 95% CI 1·01-1·06, p<0·05). Nurse workloads across hospitals varied from six to 24 patients per nurse. Patients in hospitals with 18 patients per nurse, compared with those in hospitals with eight patients per nurse, had 41% higher odds of dying, 20% higher odds of being readmitted, 41% higher odds of staying longer, and 68% lower odds of rating their hospital highly. We estimated that savings from reduced readmissions and shorter stays would exceed the costs of adding nurses by US$1·2 million and $5·4 million if the additional nurses resulted in average workloads of 12 or ten patients per nurse, respectively. INTERPRETATION: Improved hospital nurse staffing in Chile was associated with lower inpatient mortality, higher patient satisfaction, fewer readmissions, and shorter hospital stays, suggesting that greater investments in nurses could return higher quality of care and greater value. FUNDING: Sigma Theta Tau International, University of Pennsylvania Global Engagement Fund, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing's Center for Health Outcomes, and Policy Research and Population Research Center. TRANSLATION: For the Spanish translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Valuing hospital investments in nursing: multistate matched-cohort study of surgical patients.

BACKGROUND: There are known clinical benefits associated with investments in nursing. Less is known about their value. AIMS: To compare surgical patient outcomes and costs in hospitals with better versus worse nursing resources and to determine if value differs across these hospitals for patients with different mortality risks. METHODS: Retrospective matched-cohort design of patient outcomes at hospitals with better versus worse nursing resources, defined by patient-to-nurse ratios, skill mix, proportions of bachelors-degree nurses and nurse work environments. The sample included 62 715 pairs of surgical patients in 76 better nursing resourced hospitals and 230 worse nursing resourced hospitals from 2013 to 2015. Patients were exactly matched on principal procedures and their hospital's size category, teaching and technology status, and were closely matched on comorbidities and other risk factors. RESULTS: Patients in hospitals with better nursing resources had lower 30-day mortality: 2.7% vs 3.1% (p<0.001), lower failure-to-rescue: 5.4% vs 6.2% (p<0.001), lower readmissions: 12.6% vs 13.5% (p<0.001), shorter lengths of stay: 4.70 days vs 4.76 days (p<0.001), more intensive care unit admissions: 17.2% vs 15.4% (p<0.001) and marginally higher nurse-adjusted costs (which account for the costs of better nursing resources): $20 096 vs $19 358 (p<0.001), as compared with patients in worse nursing resourced hospitals. The nurse-adjusted cost associated with a 1% improvement in mortality at better nursing hospitals was $2035. Patients with the highest mortality risk realised the greatest value from nursing resources. CONCLUSION: Hospitals with better nursing resources provided better clinical outcomes for surgical patients at a small additional cost. Generally, the sicker the patient, the greater the value at better nursing resourced hospitals.

Evaluating the Costs and Outcomes of Hospital Nursing Resources: a Matched Cohort Study of Patients with Common Medical Conditions.

BACKGROUND: Nursing resources, such as staffing ratios and skill mix, vary across hospitals. Better nursing resources have been linked to better patient outcomes but are assumed to increase costs. The value of investments in nursing resources, in terms of clinical benefits relative to costs, is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are differential clinical outcomes, costs, and value among medical patients at hospitals characterized by better or worse nursing resources. DESIGN: Matched cohort study of patients in 306 acute care hospitals. PATIENTS: A total of 74,045 matched pairs of fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries admitted for common medical conditions (25,446 sepsis pairs; 16,332 congestive heart failure pairs; 12,811 pneumonia pairs; 10,598 stroke pairs; 8858 acute myocardial infarction pairs). Patients were also matched on hospital size, technology, and teaching status. MAIN MEASURES: Better (n = 76) and worse (n = 230) nursing resourced hospitals were defined by patient-to-nurse ratios, skill mix, proportions of bachelors-degree nurses, and nurse work environments. Outcomes included 30-day mortality, readmission, and resource utilization-based costs. KEY RESULTS: Patients in hospitals with better nursing resources had significantly lower 30-day mortality (16.1% vs 17.1%, p < 0.0001) and fewer readmissions (32.3% vs 33.6%, p < 0.0001) yet costs were not significantly different ($18,848 vs 18,671, p = 0.133). The greatest outcomes and cost advantage of better nursing resourced hospitals were in patients with sepsis who had lower mortality (25.3% vs 27.6%, p < 0.0001). Overall, patients with the highest risk of mortality on admission experienced the greatest reductions in mortality and readmission from better nursing at no difference in cost. CONCLUSIONS: Medicare beneficiaries with common medical conditions admitted to hospitals with better nursing resources experienced more favorable outcomes at almost no difference in cost.

A Methodology For Studying Organizational Performance: A Multistate Survey of Front-line Providers.

BACKGROUND: Rigorous measurement of organizational performance requires large, unbiased samples to allow inferences to the population. Studies of organizations, including hospitals, often rely on voluntary surveys subject to nonresponse bias. For example, hospital administrators with concerns about performance are more likely to opt-out of surveys about organizational quality and safety, which is problematic for generating inferences. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to describe a novel approach to obtaining a representative sample of organizations using individuals nested within organizations, and demonstrate how resurveying nonrespondents can allay concerns about bias from low response rates at the individual-level. METHODS: We review and analyze common ways of surveying hospitals. We describe the approach and results of a double-sampling technique of surveying nurses as informants about hospital quality and performance. Finally, we provide recommendations for sampling and survey methods to increase response rates and evaluate whether and to what extent bias exists. RESULTS: The survey of nurses yielded data on over 95% of hospitals in the sampling frame. Although the nurse response rate was 26%, comparisons of nurses' responses in the main survey and those of resurveyed nonrespondents, which yielded nearly a 90% response rate, revealed no statistically significant differences at the nurse-level, suggesting no evidence of nonresponse bias. CONCLUSIONS: Surveying organizations via random sampling of front-line providers can avoid the self-selection issues caused by directly sampling organizations. Response rates are commonly misinterpreted as a measure of representativeness; however, findings from the double-sampling approach show how low response rates merely increase the potential for nonresponse bias but do not confirm it.

Effect of Changes in Hospital Nursing Resources on Improvements in Patient Safety and Quality of Care: A Panel Study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence shows hospitals with better nursing resources have better outcomes but few studies have shown that outcomes change over time within hospitals as nursing resources change. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether changes in nursing resources over time within hospitals are related to changes in quality of care and patient safety. RESEARCH DESIGN: Multilevel logistic response models, using data from a panel of 737 hospitals in which cross-sections of nurse informants surveyed in 2006 and 2016, were used to simultaneously estimate longitudinal and cross-sectional associations between nursing resources, quality of care, and patient safety. MEASURES: Nursing resources included hospital-level measures of work environments, nurse staffing, and nurse education. Care quality was measured by overall rating of care quality, confidence in patients managing care after discharge, confidence in management resolving patient care problems; patient safety was measured by patient safety grade, concern with mistakes, and freedom to question authority. RESULTS: After taking into account cross-sectional differences between hospitals, differences among nurses within hospitals, and potential confounding variables, changes within hospitals in nursing resources were associated with significant changes in quality of care and patient safety. Improvements in work environment of 1 SD decrease odds of unfavorable quality care and patient safety by factors ranging from 0.82 to 0.97. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements within hospitals in work environments, nurse staffing, and educational composition of nurses coincide with improvements in quality of care and patient safety. Cross-sectional results closely approximate longitudinal panel results.

Comparison of the Value of Nursing Work Environments in Hospitals Across Different Levels of Patient Risk.

IMPORTANCE: The literature suggests that hospitals with better nursing work environments provide better quality of care. Less is known about value (cost vs quality). OBJECTIVES: To test whether hospitals with better nursing work environments displayed better value than those with worse nursing environments and to determine patient risk groups associated with the greatest value. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: A retrospective matched-cohort design, comparing the outcomes and cost of patients at focal hospitals recognized nationally as having good nurse working environments and nurse-to-bed ratios of 1 or greater with patients at control group hospitals without such recognition and with nurse-to-bed ratios less than 1. This study included 25 752 elderly Medicare general surgery patients treated at focal hospitals and 62 882 patients treated at control hospitals during 2004-2006 in Illinois, New York, and Texas. The study was conducted between January 1, 2004, and November 30, 2006; this analysis was conducted from April to August 2015. EXPOSURES: Focal vs control hospitals (better vs worse nursing environment). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Thirty-day mortality and costs reflecting resource utilization. RESULTS: This study was conducted at 35 focal hospitals (mean nurse-to-bed ratio, 1.51) and 293 control hospitals (mean nurse-to-bed ratio, 0.69). Focal hospitals were larger and more teaching and technology intensive than control hospitals. Thirty-day mortality in focal hospitals was 4.8% vs 5.8% in control hospitals (P < .001), while the cost per patient was similar: the focal-control was -$163 (95% CI = -$542 to $215; P = .40), suggesting better value in the focal group. For the focal vs control hospitals, the greatest mortality benefit (17.3% vs 19.9%; P < .001) occurred in patients in the highest risk quintile, with a nonsignificant cost difference of $941 per patient ($53 701 vs $52 760; P = .25). The greatest difference in value between focal and control hospitals appeared in patients in the second-highest risk quintile, with mortality of 4.2% vs 5.8% (P < .001), with a nonsignificant cost difference of -$862 ($33 513 vs $34 375; P = .12). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Hospitals with better nursing environments and above-average staffing levels were associated with better value (lower mortality with similar costs) compared with hospitals without nursing environment recognition and with below-average staffing, especially for higher-risk patients. These results do not suggest that improving any specific hospital's nursing environment will necessarily improve its value, but they do show that patients undergoing general surgery at hospitals with better nursing environments generally receive care of higher value.

HOW THE U.S. PRISON BOOM HAS CHANGED THE AGE DISTRIBUTION OF THE PRISON POPULATION.

This article provides a demographic exposition of the changes in the U.S prison population during the period of mass incarceration that began in the late twentieth century. By drawing on data from the Survey of Inmates in State Correctional Facilities (1974-2004) for inmates 17-72 years of age (N = 336), we show that the age distribution shifted upward dramatically: Only 16 percent of the state prison population was 40 years old or older in 1974; by 2004, this percentage had doubled to 33 percent with the median age of prisoners rising from 27 to 34 years old. By using an estimable function approach, we find that the change in the age distribution of the prison population is primarily a cohort effect that is driven by the "enhanced" penal careers of the cohorts who hit young adulthood-the prime age of both crime and incarceration-when substance use was at its peak. Period-specific factors (e.g., proclivity for punishment and incidence of offense) do matter, but they seem to play out more across the life cycles of persons most affected in young adulthood (cohort effects) than across all age groups at one point in time (period effects).

Organization of Hospital Nursing, Provision of Nursing Care, and Patient Experiences With Care in Europe.

This study integrates previously isolated findings of nursing outcomes research into an explanatory framework in which care left undone and nurse education levels are of key importance. A moderated mediation analysis of survey data from 11,549 patients and 10,733 nurses in 217 hospitals in eight European countries shows that patient care experience is better in hospitals with better nurse staffing and a more favorable work environment in which less clinical care is left undone. Clinical care left undone is a mediator in this relationship. Clinical care is left undone less frequently in hospitals with better nurse staffing and more favorable nurse work environments, and in which nurses work less overtime and are more experienced. Higher proportions of nurses with a bachelor's degree reduce the effect of worse nurse staffing on more clinical care left undone.

Effects of Causes and Causes of Effects: Some Remarks From the Sociological Side.

Sociology is pluralist in subject matter, theory, and method, and thus a good place to entertain ideas about causation associated with their use under the law. I focus on two themes of their article: (1) the legal lens on causation that "considers populations in order to make statements about individuals" and (2) the importance of distinguishing between effects of causes and causes of effects.

Lower mortality in magnet hospitals.

BACKGROUND: Although there is evidence that hospitals recognized for nursing excellence--Magnet hospitals--are successful in attracting and retaining nurses, it is uncertain whether Magnet recognition is associated with better patient outcomes than non-Magnets, and if so why. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether Magnet hospitals have lower risk-adjusted mortality and failure-to-rescue compared with non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the most likely explanations. METHOD AND STUDY DESIGN: Analysis of linked patient, nurse, and hospital data on 56 Magnet and 508 non-Magnet hospitals. Logistic regression models were used to estimate differences in the odds of mortality and failure-to-rescue for surgical patients treated in Magnet versus non-Magnet hospitals, and to determine the extent to which differences in outcomes can be explained by nursing after accounting for patient and hospital differences. RESULTS: Magnet hospitals had significantly better work environments and higher proportions of nurses with bachelor's degrees and specialty certification. These nursing factors explained much of the Magnet hospital effect on patient outcomes. However, patients treated in Magnet hospitals had 14% lower odds of mortality (odds ratio 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.76-0.98; P=0.02) and 12% lower odds of failure-to-rescue (odds ratio 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.77-1.01; P=0.07) while controlling for nursing factors as well as hospital and patient differences. CONCLUSIONS: The lower mortality we find in Magnet hospitals is largely attributable to measured nursing characteristics but there is a mortality advantage above and beyond what we could measure. Magnet recognition identifies existing quality and stimulates further positive organizational behavior that improves patient outcomes.

Effects of nurse staffing and nurse education on patient deaths in hospitals with different nurse work environments.

CONTEXT: Better hospital nurse staffing, more educated nurses, and improved nurse work environments have been shown to be associated with lower hospital mortality. Little is known about whether and under what conditions each type of investment works better to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the impact of hospital nurse staffing, nurse education, and work environment are associated with patient outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Outcomes of 665 hospitals in 4 large states were studied through linked data from hospital discharge abstracts for 1,262,120 general, orthopedic, and vascular surgery patients, a random sample of 39,038 hospital staff nurses, and American Hospital Association data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A 30-day inpatient mortality and failure-to-rescue. RESULTS: The effect of decreasing workloads by 1 patient/nurse on deaths and failure-to-rescue is virtually nil in hospitals with poor work environments, but decreases the odds on both deaths and failures in hospitals with average environments by 4%, and in hospitals with the best environments by 9% and 10%, respectively. The effect of 10% more Bachelors of Science in Nursing Degree nurses decreases the odds on both outcomes in all hospitals, regardless of their work environment, by roughly 4%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the positive effect of increasing percentages of Bachelors of Science in Nursing Degree nurses is consistent across all hospitals, lowering the patient-to-nurse ratios markedly improves patient outcomes in hospitals with good work environments, slightly improves them in hospitals with average environments, and has no effect in hospitals with poor environments.

Patient safety, satisfaction, and quality of hospital care: cross sectional surveys of nurses and patients in 12 countries in Europe and the United States.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hospitals with a good organisation of care (such as improved nurse staffing and work environments) can affect patient care and nurse workforce stability in European countries. DESIGN: Cross sectional surveys of patients and nurses. SETTING: Nurses were surveyed in general acute care hospitals (488 in 12 European countries; 617 in the United States); patients were surveyed in 210 European hospitals and 430 US hospitals. PARTICIPANTS: 33 659 nurses and 11 318 patients in Europe; 27 509 nurses and more than 120 000 patients in the US. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Nurse outcomes (hospital staffing, work environments, burnout, dissatisfaction, intention to leave job in the next year, patient safety, quality of care), patient outcomes (satisfaction overall and with nursing care, willingness to recommend hospitals). RESULTS: The percentage of nurses reporting poor or fair quality of patient care varied substantially by country (from 11% (Ireland) to 47% (Greece)), as did rates for nurses who gave their hospital a poor or failing safety grade (4% (Switzerland) to 18% (Poland)). We found high rates of nurse burnout (10% (Netherlands) to 78% (Greece)), job dissatisfaction (11% (Netherlands) to 56% (Greece)), and intention to leave (14% (US) to 49% (Finland, Greece)). Patients' high ratings of their hospitals also varied considerably (35% (Spain) to 61% (Finland, Ireland)), as did rates of patients willing to recommend their hospital (53% (Greece) to 78% (Switzerland)). Improved work environments and reduced ratios of patients to nurses were associated with increased care quality and patient satisfaction. In European hospitals, after adjusting for hospital and nurse characteristics, nurses with better work environments were half as likely to report poor or fair care quality (adjusted odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.51 to 0.61) and give their hospitals poor or failing grades on patient safety (0.50, 0.44 to 0.56). Each additional patient per nurse increased the odds of nurses reporting poor or fair quality care (1.11, 1.07 to 1.15) and poor or failing safety grades (1.10, 1.05 to 1.16). Patients in hospitals with better work environments were more likely to rate their hospital highly (1.16, 1.03 to 1.32) and recommend their hospitals (1.20, 1.05 to 1.37), whereas those with higher ratios of patients to nurses were less likely to rate them highly (0.94, 0.91 to 0.97) or recommend them (0.95, 0.91 to 0.98). Results were similar in the US. Nurses and patients agreed on which hospitals provided good care and could be recommended. CONCLUSIONS: Deficits in hospital care quality were common in all countries. Improvement of hospital work environments might be a relatively low cost strategy to improve safety and quality in hospital care and to increase patient satisfaction.

Effects of nurse staffing and nurse education on patient deaths in hospitals with different nurse work environments.

CONTEXT: Better hospital nurse staffing, more educated nurses, and improved nurse work environments have been shown to be associated with lower hospital mortality. Little is known about whether and under what conditions each type of investment works better to improve outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine the conditions under which the impact of hospital nurse staffing, nurse education, and work environment are associated with patient outcomes. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Outcomes of 665 hospitals in 4 large states were studied through linked data from hospital discharge abstracts for 1,262,120 general, orthopedic, and vascular surgery patients, a random sample of 39,038 hospital staff nurses, and American Hospital Association data. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A 30-day inpatient mortality and failure-to-rescue. RESULTS: The effect of decreasing workloads by 1 patient/nurse on deaths and failure-to-rescue is virtually nil in hospitals with poor work environments, but decreases the odds on both deaths and failures in hospitals with average environments by 4%, and in hospitals with the best environments by 9% and 10%, respectively. The effect of 10% more Bachelors of Science in Nursing Degree nurses decreases the odds on both outcomes in all hospitals, regardless of their work environment, by roughly 4%. CONCLUSIONS: Although the positive effect of increasing percentages of Bachelors of Science in Nursing Degree nurses is consistent across all hospitals, lowering the patient-to-nurse ratios markedly improves patient outcomes in hospitals with good work environments, slightly improves them in hospitals with average environments, and has no effect in hospitals with poor environments.

Implications of the California nurse staffing mandate for other states.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether nurse staffing in California hospitals, where state-mandated minimum nurse-to-patient ratios are in effect, differs from two states without legislation and whether those differences are associated with nurse and patient outcomes. DATA SOURCES: Primary survey data from 22,336 hospital staff nurses in California, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey in 2006 and state hospital discharge databases. STUDY DESIGN: Nurse workloads are compared across the three states and we examine how nurse and patient outcomes, including patient mortality and failure-to-rescue, are affected by the differences in nurse workloads across the hospitals in these states. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: California hospital nurses cared for one less patient on average than nurses in the other states and two fewer patients on medical and surgical units. Lower ratios are associated with significantly lower mortality. When nurses' workloads were in line with California-mandated ratios in all three states, nurses' burnout and job dissatisfaction were lower, and nurses reported consistently better quality of care. CONCLUSIONS: Hospital nurse staffing ratios mandated in California are associated with lower mortality and nurse outcomes predictive of better nurse retention in California and in other states where they occur.

Analysis of factors influencing Dysphagia severity following treatment of head and neck cancer.

The aim was to assess the influence of treatment, tumor stages and sites on the severity of dysphagia following treatment. Sequential modified barium swallow (MBS) examinations were performed in patients who complained of chronic dysphagia following treatment of their head and neck cancer. Patients were selected if they were cancer free at their last MBS and had 2 or more MBS studies. Dysphagia severity was graded on a scale of 1 to 7. Dysphagia grade was compared between the first and last MBS to assess its evolution. Between 1996 and 2005, 63 patients with chronic dysphagia underwent MBS to assess dysphagia severity for nutritional support. Twenty-one patients (33%) had improvement of their dysphagia. Two of these patients (3%) achieved normalization of the swallowing. Twenty-five patients (40%) had no change of the dysphagia severity. Dysphagia grade increased in 17 patients (27%). Analysis of patient characteristics did not show any significant difference between these three groups of patients. MBS is a useful tool to monitor dysphagia severity and to identify aspiration risk. Stages of disease and treatment modality do not seem to impact on the course of dysphagia.

Aspiration risk and postoperative radiation for head and neck cancer.

The aim of the study was to assess the aspiration risk following postoperative radiation for head and neck cancer. Thirty-seven patients had Modified Barium Swallow before and following treatment. Dysphagia severity was graded from 1 to 7. Before treatment there were sixteen grade 1, seventeen grade 2, three grade 3 and one grade 5. Following postoperative radiation, two patients had grade 1, eleven patients had grade 2, thirteen patients had grade 3, four patients had grade 4, four patients had grade 5, one patients had grade 6, and two patients had grade 7. Nineteen percent (7/37) of the patients developed aspiration (grade 5-7). Aspiration is life-threatening and may develop for all tumor sites and stages.

[Application of Time-Series Analysis to the Projection of School Enrollments by Cohort]. / Application de l'analyse des séries chronologiques à la projection d'effectifs de population scolaire par la méthode des composantes.

This article shows that we can re-write several demographic models for cohort projections as transpositions of the econometric vector auto-regression (VAR) model. In so doing, we give the method of cohort projection a stochastic framework that extends its applicability. This is demonstrated via an example involving the projection of school enrollments. We emphasize a series of equations that allow us to check the validity of several modeling choices that are otherwise made on the basis of habit alone.