Fertility intentions and outcomes in Indonesia: Evolutionary perspectives on sexual conflict.

Differential fertility preferences for men and women may provide insights into human sexual conflict. We explore whether pairbonded couples have different preferences for future offspring, which socioecological factors are associated with these preferences, and who achieves their desired fertility over time. We utilise the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), a longitudinal survey which collected data from 1993 to 2015, to compare desired future fertility for 9655 couples and follow couples who had divergent preferences. The majority of couples (64.8%) want the same number of future offspring. In 20.7% of couples, husbands want more future offspring than their wives, while the reverse occurs in 14.5% of couples. Living in villages with the husband's or the wife's parent(s) is associated with having divergent preferences for future offspring, where there is a higher likelihood that women prefer more offspring than their husbands. When examining fertility outcomes, women, particularly those who marry at older ages, are more likely to achieve their desired preference. Contrary to previous research, we do not find that living near one's natal kin or having increased autonomy increases an individual's likelihood of achieving desired fertility outcomes.

Life-History Factors Influence Teenagers' Suicidal Ideation: A Model Selection Analysis of the Canadian National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth.

Suicidality is an important contributor to disease burden worldwide. We examine the developmental and environmental correlates of reported suicidal ideation at age 15 and develop a new evolutionary model of suicidality based on life history trade-offs and hypothesized accompanying modulations of cognition. Data were derived from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (Statistics Canada) which collected information on children's social, emotional, and behavioral development in eight cycles between 1994 and 2009. We take a model selection approach to understand thoughts of suicide at age 15 (N ≈ 1,700). The most highly ranked models include social support, early life psychosocial stressors, prenatal stress, and mortality cues. Those reporting consistent early life stress had 2.66 greater odds of reporting thoughts of suicide at age 15 than those who reported no childhood stress. Social support of the primary caregiver, neighborhood cohesion, nonkin social support of the adolescent, and the number of social support sources are all associated with suicidal thoughts, where greater neighborhood cohesion and social support sources are associated with a reduction in experiencing suicidal thoughts. Mother's prenatal smoking throughout pregnancy is associated with a 1.5 greater odds of suicidal thoughts for adolescents compared to children whose mother's reported not smoking during pregnancy. We discuss these findings in light of evolutionary models of suicidality. This study identifies both positive and negative associations on suicidal thoughts at age 15 and considers these in light of adaptive response models of human development. Findings are relevant for mental health policy.

Marital Dissolution and Child Educational Outcomes in San Borja, Bolivia.

Serial monogamy is likely an adaptive mating strategy for women when the expected future fitness gains with a different partner are greater than expected future fitness with one's current partner. Using interview data from more than 400 women in San Borja, Bolivia, discrete-time event history analyses and random effects regression analyses were conducted to examine predictors of marital dissolution, separated by remarriage status, and child educational outcomes. Male income was found to be inversely associated with women's risk of "divorce and remarriage," whereas female income is positively associated with women's risk of "divorce, but not remarriage." Children of women who divorce and remarry tend to have significantly lower educational outcomes than children of married parents, but women with higher incomes are able to buffer their children from the negative educational outcomes of divorce and remarriage. Counter to predictions, there is no evidence that women with kin in the community have a significant difference in likelihood of divorce or a buffering effect of child outcomes. In conclusion, predictors of divorce differ depending on whether the woman goes on to remarry, suggesting that male income may be a better predictor of a serial monogamy strategy whereas female income predicts marital dissolution only. Thus, women who are relatively autonomous because of greater income may not benefit from remarriage.

What do men want? Re-examining whether men benefit from higher fertility than is optimal for women.

Several empirical observations suggest that when women have more autonomy over their reproductive decisions, fertility is lower. Some evolutionary theorists have interpreted this as evidence for sexual conflicts of interest, arguing that higher fertility is more adaptive for men than women. We suggest the assumptions underlying these arguments are problematic: assuming that women suffer higher costs of reproduction than men neglects the (different) costs of reproduction for men; the assumption that men can repartner is often false. We use simple models to illustrate that (i) menorwomen can prefer longer interbirth intervals (IBIs), (ii) if men can only partner with wives sequentially they may favour shorter IBIs than women, but such a strategy would only be optimal for a few men who can repartner. This suggests that an evolved universal male preference for higher fertility than women prefer is implausible and is unlikely to fully account for the empirical data. This further implies that if women have more reproductive autonomy, populations should grow, not decline. More precise theoretical explanations with clearly stated assumptions, and data that better address both ultimate fitness consequences and proximate psychological motivations, are needed to understand under which conditions sexual conflict over reproductive timing should arise.

Pathways from education to fertility decline: a multi-site comparative study.

Women's education has emerged as a central predictor of fertility decline, but the many ways that education affects fertility have not been subject to detailed comparative investigation. Taking an evolutionary biosocial approach, we use structural equation modelling to examine potential pathways between education and fertility including: infant/child mortality, women's participation in the labour market, husband's education, social network influences, and contraceptive use or knowledge across three very different contexts: Matlab, Bangladesh; San Borja, Bolivia; and rural Poland. Using a comparable set of variables, we show that the pathways by which education affects fertility differ in important ways, yet also show key similarities. For example, we find that across all three contexts, education is associated with delayed age at first birth via increasing women's labour-force participation, but this pathway only influences fertility in rural Poland. In Matlab and San Borja, education is associated with lower local childhood mortality, which influences fertility, but this pathway is not important in rural Poland. Similarities across sites suggest that there are common elements in how education drives demographic transitions cross-culturally, but the differences suggest that local socioecologies also play an important role in the relationship between education and fertility decline.

Grandparental help in Indonesia is directed preferentially towards needier descendants: a potential confounder when exploring grandparental influences on child health.

A considerable body of evidence has now demonstrated positive correlations between grandparental presence and child health outcomes. It is typically assumed that such correlations exist because grandparental investment in their grandchildren improves child health and wellbeing. However, less is known about how grandparents allocate help to adult children and grandchildren, particularly in lower income contexts. Here we use detailed quantitative data from the longitudinal Indonesia Family Life Survey (data collected in 1993, 1997, 2000, 2007; n = 16,250) to examine grandparental help in a society transitioning both demographically and economically. We test the hypothesis that grandparents direct help preferentially towards those adult children and grandchildren most in need of help. This hypothesis was supported for help provided by married grandparents and single grandmothers, who tended to: provide more help to their adult children when this generation had young children themselves, provide financial help if their adult children were poorer, and provide more household help if their adult daughters worked outside the home. One unexpected result was that help from maternal and paternal grandparents is positively correlated; if one set of grandparents is helping the other set is more likely to help, counter to our predictions. These results provide support for the hypothesis that grandparents preferentially invest in some descendants over others, where married grandparents and single grandmothers tend to invest in those adult children and grandchildren with the most need. Investigating the effect of grandparents on child health outcomes may therefore be confounded by grandparent's preferential investment in needier descendants.

A test of the intergenerational conflict model in Indonesia shows no evidence of earlier menopause in female-dispersing groups.

Menopause remains an evolutionary puzzle, as humans are unique among primates in having a long post-fertile lifespan. One model proposes that intergenerational conflict in patrilocal populations favours female reproductive cessation. This model predicts that women should experience menopause earlier in groups with an evolutionary history of patrilocality compared with matrilocal groups. Using data from the Indonesia Family Life Survey, we test this model at multiple timescales: deep historical time, comparing age at menopause in ancestrally patrilocal Chinese Indonesians with ancestrally matrilocal Austronesian Indonesians; more recent historical time, comparing age at menopause in ethnic groups with differing postmarital residence within Indonesia and finally, analysing age at menopause at an individual-level, assuming a woman facultatively adjusts her age at menopause based on her postmarital residence. We find a significant effect only at the intermediate timescale where, contrary to predictions, ethnic groups with a history of multilocal postnuptial residence (where couples choose where to live) have the slowest progression to menopause, whereas matrilocal and patrilocal ethnic groups have similar progression rates. Multilocal residence may reduce intergenerational conflicts between women, thus influencing reproductive behaviour, but our results provide no support for the female-dispersal model of intergenerational conflict as an explanation of menopause.

A synthetic biosocial model of fertility transition: testing the relative contribution of embodied capital theory, changing cultural norms, and women's labor force participation.

This article presents a biosocial model of fertility decline, which integrates ecological-economic and informational-cultural hypotheses of fertility transition in a unified theoretical framework. The model is then applied to empirical data collected among 500 women from San Borja, Bolivia, a population undergoing fertility transition. Using a combination of event history analysis, multiple regression, and structural equation modeling, we examine the pathways by which education responds to birth cohort, parental education and network ties, and how age at first birth and total fertility, in turn, respond to birth cohort, social network ties, education, expectations about parental investment, work, and contraceptive use. We find that in addition to secular trends in education, respondent's education is associated with the education of parents, the investment she received from them, and the education of older siblings. Total fertility has dropped over time, partly in response to increased education; moreover, the behavior of other women in a woman's social network predicts both initiation of reproduction and total fertility, while expected parental investment in offspring negatively predicts total fertility. Involvement in paid work that is incompatible with childcare is associated with a later age of first reproduction, but not subsequent fertility. Contraceptive use partially mediates the effect of education and birth cohort on total fertility, but is not a mediator of the effect of social network or expected parental investment on total fertility. Overall, the empirical results provide support for a biosocial model of fertility decline, particularly the embodied capital and cultural pathways.

Father absence and reproduction-related outcomes in Malaysia, a transitional fertility population.

Father absence is consistently associated with children's reproductive outcomes in industrialized countries. It has been suggested that father absence acts as a cue to particular environmental conditions that influence life history strategies. Much less is known, however, about the effects of father absence on such outcomes in lower-income countries. Using data from the 1988 Malaysian Family Life Survey (n = 567), we tested the effect of father absence on daughters' age at menarche, first marriage, and first birth; parity progression rates; and desired completed family size in Malaysia, a country undergoing an economic and fertility transition. Father absence during later childhood (ages 8 to 15), although not during earlier childhood, was associated with earlier progressions to first marriage and first birth, after controlling for other confounders. Father absence does not affect age at menarche, desired family size, or progression from first to second birth. The patterns found in this transitional population partly mirror those in developed societies, where father absence accelerates reproductive events. There is, however, a notable contrast between the acceleration in menarche for father-absent girls consistently found in developed societies and the lack of any association in our findings. The mechanisms through which father absence affects reproduction may differ in different ecological contexts. In lower-income contexts, direct paternal investment or influence may be of more importance in determining reproductive behavior than whether fathers act as a cue to environmental conditions.