Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of the spatiotemporal distribution of different mosquito vector species and the associated risk of transmission of arboviruses are key to design adequate policies for preventing local outbreaks and reducing the number of human infections in endemic areas. In this study, we quantified the abundance of Aedes albopictus and Aedes aegypti and the local transmission potential for three arboviral infections at an unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution in areas where no entomological surveillance is available. METHODS: We developed a computational model to quantify the daily abundance of Aedes mosquitoes, leveraging temperature and precipitation records. The model was calibrated on mosquito surveillance data collected in 115 locations in Europe and the Americas between 2007 and 2018. Model estimates were used to quantify the reproduction number of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya in Europe and the Americas, at a high spatial resolution. FINDINGS: In areas colonised by both Aedes species, A aegypti was estimated to be the main vector for the transmission of dengue virus, Zika virus, and chikungunya, being associated with a higher estimate of R0 when compared with A albopictus. Our estimates highlighted that these arboviruses were endemic in tropical and subtropical countries, with the highest risks of transmission found in central America, Venezuela, Colombia, and central-east Brazil. A non-negligible potential risk of transmission was also estimated for Florida, Texas, and Arizona (USA). The broader ecological niche of A albopictus could contribute to the emergence of chikungunya outbreaks and clusters of dengue autochthonous cases in temperate areas of the Americas, as well as in mediterranean Europe (in particular, in Italy, southern France, and Spain). INTERPRETATION: Our results provide a comprehensive overview of the transmission potential of arboviral diseases in Europe and the Americas, highlighting areas where surveillance and mosquito control capacities should be prioritised. FUNDING: EU and Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Piano Nazionale di Ripresa e Resilienza Extended Partnership initiative on Emerging Infectious Diseases); EU (Horizon 2020); Ministero dell'Università e della Ricerca, Italy (Progetti di ricerca di Rilevante Interesse Nazionale programme); Brazilian National Council of Science, Technology and Innovation; Ministry of Health, Brazil; and Foundation of Research for Minas Gerais, Brazil.

Association between air pollution and emergency room admission for eye diseases in Rome, Italy: A time-series analysis.

Eye diseases impose a significant burden on health services due to high case numbers. However, exposure to outdoor air pollution is seldom mentioned as potential harmful factor. We conducted a time-series analysis in Rome, Italy, to estimate the association between daily mean concentration of NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 and daily number of emergency room (ER) admissions for a selected cluster of eye diseases from 2006 to 2016. We used Poisson regression adjusted for time trend, population decrease during summer vacations and holidays, day of week, apparent temperature (hot and cold) and daily concentration of nine pollen species. We observed 581,868 ER admissions during the study period. 44.74% of cases were observed in subjects with less than 20 years, 19.50% in 51-65 age category and 13.4% among children (0-14 years). No differences between sexes were recorded. Mean values of pollutant concentrations were 54.75, 31.01 and 18.14 µg/m3 for NO2, PM10 and PM2.5 respectively. The air temperature ranged from -1 °C to 32.5 °C, with a mean value of 16 °C (SD = 6.88). The apparent temperature spaced from -3.58 °C to 34.08 °C (mean = 15.61 °C, SD = 8.5). The highest percent risk increases for 10 µg/m3 increases of the three pollutants were observed at lag0-1 day (1.3%, 0.63-1.98 for PM2.5; 1.03%, 0.56-1.51 for PM10 and 0.6%, 0.13-1.07 for NO2). Risk increased significantly also at lag0 and lag0-5 day for each pollutant. Secondary analyses showed higher effects in the elderly compared to younger subjects. No differences emerged between sexes. The dose response analysis suggested of possible effects on ER admission risk also at low-level concentrations of PM2.5. A strong confounding effect of pollen was not detected. RESULTS: of this study are coherent with previous analyses. Speculation can be done about the biological mechanisms that link air pollution to eye damage.

Reporting delays of chikungunya cases during the 2017 outbreak in Lazio region, Italy.

BACKGROUND: Emerging arboviral diseases in Europe pose a challenge due to difficulties in detecting and diagnosing cases during the initial circulation of the pathogen. Early outbreak detection enables public health authorities to take effective actions to reduce disease transmission. Quantification of the reporting delays of cases is vital to plan and assess surveillance and control strategies. Here, we provide estimates of reporting delays during an emerging arboviral outbreak and indications on how delays may have impacted onward transmission. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using descriptive statistics and Kaplan-Meyer curves we analyzed case reporting delays (the period between the date of symptom onset and the date of notification to the public health authorities) during the 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreak. We further investigated the effect of outbreak detection on reporting delays by means of a Cox proportional hazard model. We estimated that the overall median reporting delay was 15.5 days, but this was reduced to 8 days after the notification of the first case. Cases with symptom onset after outbreak detection had about a 3.5 times higher reporting rate, however only 3.6% were notified within 24h from symptom onset. Remarkably, we found that 45.9% of identified cases developed symptoms before the detection of the outbreak. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that efforts should be undertaken to improve the early detection and identification of arboviral cases, as well as the management of vector species to mitigate the impact of long reporting delays.

How habitat factors affect an Aedes mosquitoes driven outbreak at temperate latitudes: The case of the Chikungunya virus in Italy.

BACKGROUND: Outbreaks of Aedes-borne diseases in temperate areas are not frequent, and limited in number of cases. We investigate the associations between habitat factors and temperature on individuals' risk of chikungunya (CHIKV) in a non-endemic area by spatially analyzing the data from the 2017 Italian outbreak. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We adopted a case-control study design to analyze the association between land-cover variables, temperature, and human population density with CHIKV cases. The observational unit was the area, at different scales, surrounding the residence of each CHIKV notified case. The statistical analysis was conducted considering the whole dataset and separately for the resort town of Anzio and the metropolitan city of Rome, which were the two main foci of the outbreak. In Rome, a higher probability for the occurrence of CHIKV cases is associated with lower temperature (OR = 0.72; 95% CI: 0.61-0.85) and with cells with higher vegetation coverage and human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.05). In Anzio, CHIKV case occurrence was positively associated with human population density (OR = 1.03; 95% CI: 1.00-1.06) but not with habitat factors or temperature. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Using temperature, human population density and vegetation coverage data as drives for CHIKV transmission, our estimates could be instrumental in assessing spatial heterogeneity in the risk of experiencing arboviral diseases in non-endemic temperate areas.

Long-term exposure to air pollution and risk of venous thromboembolism in a large administrative cohort.

BACKGROUND: Venous thromboembolisms (VTE) are one of the most frequent cause among the cardiovascular diseases. Despite the association between long-term exposure to air pollution and cardiovascular outcomes have been widely explored in epidemiological literature, little is known about the air pollution related effects on VTE. We aimed to evaluate this association in a large administrative cohort in 15 years of follow-up. METHODS: Air pollution exposure (NO2, PM10 and PM2.5) was derived by land use regression models obtained by the ESCAPE framework. Administrative health databases were used to identify VTE cases. To estimate the association between air pollutant exposures and risk of hospitalizations for VTE (in total and divided in deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and pulmonary embolism (PE)), we used Cox regression models, considering individual, environmental (noise and green areas), and contextual characteristics. Finally, we considered potential effect modification for individual covariates and previous comorbidities. RESULTS: We identified 1,954 prevalent cases at baseline and 20,304 cases during the follow-up period. We found positive associations between PM2.5 exposures and DVT, PE and VTE with hazard ratios (HRs) up to 1.082 (95% confidence intervals: 0.992, 1.181), 1.136 (0.994, 1.298) and 1.074 (0.996, 1.158) respectively for 10 µg/m3 increases. The association was stronger in younger subjects (< 70 years old compared to > 70 years old) and among those who had cancer. CONCLUSION: The effect of pollutants on PE and VTE hospitalizations, although marginally non-significant, should be interpreted as suggestive of a health effect that deserves attention in future studies.

Short-term effects of particulate matter on cardiovascular morbidity in Italy: a national analysis.

AIMS: We aimed at investigating the relationship between particulate matter (PM) and daily admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) at national level in Italy. METHODS AND RESULTS: Daily numbers of cardiovascular hospitalizations were collected for all 8084 municipalities of Italy, in the period 2013-2015. A satellite-based spatiotemporal model was used to estimate daily PM10 (inhalable particles) and PM2.5 (fine particles) concentrations at 1-km2 resolution. Multivariate Poisson regression models were fit to estimate the association between daily PM and cardiovascular admissions. Flexible functions were estimated to explore the shape of the associations at low PM concentrations, also in non-urban areas. We analysed 2 154 810 acute hospitalizations for CVDs (25% stroke, 24% ischaemic heart diseases, 22% heart failure, and 5% atrial fibrillation). Relative increases of total cardiovascular admissions, per 10 µg/m3 variation in PM10 and PM2.5 at lag 0-5 (average of last 6 days since admission), were 0.55% (95% confidence intervals: 0.32%, 0.77%) and 0.97% (0.67%, 1.27%), respectively. The corresponding estimates for heart failure were 1.70% (1.28%, 2.13%) and 2.66% (2.09%, 3.23%). We estimated significant effects of PM10 and PM2.5 also on ischaemic heart diseases, myocardial infarction, atrial fibrillation, and ischaemic stroke. Associations were similar between less and more urbanized areas, and persisted even at low concentrations, e.g. below WHO guidelines. CONCLUSION: PM was robustly associated with peaks in daily cardiovascular admissions, especially for heart failure, both in large cities and in less urbanized areas of Italy. Current WHO Air Quality Guidelines for PM10 and PM2.5 are not sufficient to protect public health.

Real-life use of tocilizumab with or without corticosteroid in hospitalized patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia: A retrospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effectiveness of Tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) in a real-life context among moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients hospitalized at the Infectious Diseases ward of two hospitals in Lazio region, Italy, during the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia to assess the influence of tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) on: 1) primary composite outcome: risk for death/invasive mechanical ventilation/ICU-transfer at 14 days from hospital admission; 2) secondary outcome: COVID-related death only. Both outcomes were also assessed at 28 days and restricted to baseline more severe cases. We also evaluated the safety of tocilizumab. RESULTS: Overall, 412 patients were recruited, being affected by mild (6.8%), moderate (66.3%) or severe (26.9%) COVID-19 at baseline. The median participant' age was 63 years, 56.5% were men, the sum of comorbidities was 1.34 (±1.44), and the median time from symptom onset to hospital admission was 7 [3-10] days. Patients were subdivided in 4 treatment groups: standard of care (SoC) only (n = 172), SoC plus corticosteroid (n = 65), SoC plus tocilizumab (n = 50), SoC plus tocilizumab and corticosteroid (n = 125). Twenty-six (6.3%) patients underwent intubation, and 37 (9%) COVID-related deaths were recorded. After adjusting for several factors, multivariate analysis showed that tocilizumab (with or without corticosteroids) was associated to improved primary and secondary outcomes at 14 days, and at 28-days only when tocilizumab administered without corticosteroid. Among more severe cases the protective effect of tocilizumab (± corticosteroids) was observed at both time-points. No safety concerns were recorded. CONCLUSION: Although contrasting results from randomized clinical trials to date, in our experience tocilizumab was a safe and efficacious therapeutic option for patients with moderate-to-severe COVID-19 pneumonia. Its efficacy was improved by the concomitant administration of corticosteroids in patients affected by severe-COVID-19 pneumonia at baseline.

A global association between Covid-19 cases and airborne particulate matter at regional level.

Evidences of an association between air pollution and Covid-19 infections are mixed and inconclusive. We conducted an ecological analysis at regional scale of long-term exposure to air-borne particle matter and spread of Covid-19 cases during the first wave of epidemics. Global air pollution and climate data were calculated from satellite earth observation data assimilated into numerical models at 10 km resolution. Main outcome was defined as the cumulative number of cases of Covid-19 in the 14 days following the date when > 10 cumulative cases were reported. Negative binomial mixed effect models were applied to estimate the associations between the outcome and long-term exposure to air pollution at the regional level (PM10, PM2.5), after adjusting for relevant regional and country level covariates and spatial correlation. In total we collected 237,749 Covid-19 cases from 730 regions, 63 countries and 5 continents at May 30, 2020. A 10 µg/m3 increase of pollution level was associated with 8.1% (95% CI 5.4%, 10.5%) and 11.5% (95% CI 7.8%, 14.9%) increases in the number of cases in a 14 days window, for PM2.5 and PM10 respectively. We found an association between Covid-19 cases and air pollution suggestive of a possible causal link among particulate matter levels and incidence of COVID-19.

Differential induction of type I and III interferon genes in the upper respiratory tract of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

The natural course of type I and III interferon (IFN) response in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients needs to be better defined. We showed that type I/III IFNs, IFN-regulatory factor 7 (IRF7), and IFN stimulated genes (ISGs), are highly expressed in the oropharyngeal cells of SARS-CoV-2 positive patients compared to healthy controls. Notably, the subgroup of critically-ill patients that required invasive mechanical ventilation had a general decrease in expression of IFN/ISG genes. Heterogeneous patterns of IFN-I/III response in the respiratory tract of COVID-19 patients may be associated to COVID-19 severity.

Effect of Urban Wastewater Discharge on the Abundance of Antibiotic Resistance Genes and Antibiotic-Resistant Escherichia coli in Two Italian Rivers.

BACKGROUND: Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are microbial factories aimed to reduce the amount of nutrients and pathogenic microorganisms in the treated wastewater before its discharge into the environment. We studied the impact of urban WWTP effluents on the abundance of antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) and antibiotic-resistant Escherichia coli (AR-E. coli) in the last stretch of two rivers (Arrone and Tiber) in Central Italy that differ in size and flow volume. METHODS: Water samples were collected in three seasons upstream and downstream of the WWTP, at the WWTP outlet, and at sea sites near the river mouth, and analyzed for the abundance of ARGs by qPCR and AR-E. coli using cultivation followed by disk diffusion assays. RESULTS: For all studied genes (16S rRNA, intI1, sul1, ermB, blaTEM, tetW and qnrS), absolute concentrations were significantly higher in the Tiber than in the Arrone at all sampling sites, despite their collection date, but the prevalence of target ARGs within bacterial communities in both rivers was similar. The absolute concentrations of most ARGs were also generally higher in the WWTP effluent with median levels between log 4 and log 6 copies per ml but did not show differences along the studied stretches of rivers. Statistically significant site effect was found for E. coli phenotypic resistance to tetracycline and ciprofloxacin in the Arrone but not in the Tiber. CONCLUSIONS: In both rivers, diffuse or point pollution sources other than the studied WWTP effluents may account for the observed resistance pattern, although the Arrone appears as more sensitive to the wastewater impact considering its lower flow volume.

Spatial modes for transmission of chikungunya virus during a large chikungunya outbreak in Italy: a modeling analysis.

BACKGROUND: The spatial spread of many mosquito-borne diseases occurs by focal spread at the scale of a few hundred meters and over longer distances due to human mobility. The relative contributions of different spatial scales for transmission of chikungunya virus require definition to improve outbreak vector control recommendations. METHODS: We analyzed data from a large chikungunya outbreak mediated by the mosquito Aedes albopictus in the Lazio region, Italy, consisting of 414 reported human cases between June and November 2017. Using dates of symptom onset, geographic coordinates of residence, and information from epidemiological questionnaires, we reconstructed transmission chains related to that outbreak. RESULTS: Focal spread (within 1 km) accounted for 54.9% of all cases, 15.8% were transmitted at a local scale (1-15 km) and the remaining 29.3% were exported from the main areas of chikungunya circulation in Lazio to longer distances such as Rome and other geographical areas. Seventy percent of focal infections (corresponding to 38% of the total 414 cases) were transmitted within a distance of 200 m (the buffer distance adopted by the national guidelines for insecticide spraying). Two main epidemic clusters were identified, with a radius expanding at a rate of 300-600 m per month. The majority of exported cases resulted in either sporadic or no further transmission in the region. CONCLUSIONS: Evidence suggest that human mobility contributes to seeding a relevant number of secondary cases and new foci of transmission over several kilometers. Reactive vector control based on current guidelines might allow a significant number of secondary clusters in untreated areas, especially if the outbreak is not detected early. Existing policies and guidelines for control during outbreaks should recommend the prioritization of preventive measures in neighboring territories with known mobility flows to the main areas of transmission.

Knowledge, Attitude and Practices towards the Tiger Mosquito Aedes Albopictus. A Questionnaire Based Survey in Lazio Region (Italy) before the 2017 Chikungunya Outbreak.

The invasion of Aedes albopictus has played a major role in the resurgence of mosquito-borne diseases in Italy, generating the two largest chikungunya outbreaks in Europe (2007, 2017). Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) are important in order to prevent Aedes-borne disease transmission, yet so far they have not been assessed. To this scope we used multivariate logistic regression to investigate KAP of citizen-to-Aedes ecology and transmitted diseases. Data were collated by a structured questionnaire (18 questions) in 2016. Participants were selected in the Lazio region from members of native populations and two resident communities (RC) originating from the Indian subcontinent where Aedes-transmitted diseases are endemic. Results showed that compared to Italians, RC respondents had a higher knowledge and concern of Aedes-transmitted diseases (Odds Ratio = 2.61 (95%CI: 1.03-6.05); OR = 3.13 (2.15-4.65)) as well as their life cycles (OR = 2.49 (1.75-3.56); OR = 9.04 (6.22-13.66)). In contrast, they perceived a lower nuisance due to the presence of Ae. albopictus (OR = 0.2 (0.13-0.32); OR = 0.55 (0.38-0.78). These findings suggest that citizens in the Lazio region are not prepared to face a potential outbreak of arboviruses and further efforts should be made to increase knowledge, awareness and best practices.

A comparative analysis of the 2007 and 2017 Italian chikungunya outbreaks and implication for public health response.

KEY RESULTS: Both outbreaks started in small towns, but cases were also detected in nearby larger cities where transmission was limited to small clusters. The time spans between the first and the last symptom onsets were similar between the 2 outbreaks, and the delay from the symptom onset of the index case and the first case notified was considerable. Comparable infection and transmission rates were observed in laboratory. The basic reproductive number (R0) was estimated in the range of 1.8-6 (2007) and 1.5-2.6 (2017). Clinical characteristics were similar between outbreaks, and no acute complications were reported, though a higher frequency of ocular symptoms, myalgia, and rash was observed in 2017. Very little is known about the immune mediator profile of CHIKV-infected patients during the 2 outbreaks. Regarding public health responses, after the 2007 outbreak, the Italian Ministry of Health developed national guidelines to implement surveillance and good practices to prevent and control autochthonous transmission. However, only a few regional authorities implemented it, and the perception of outbreak risk and knowledge of clinical symptoms and transmission dynamics by general practitioners remained low. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS: Efforts should be devoted to developing suitable procedures for early detection of virus circulation in the population, possibly through the analysis of medical records in near real time. Increasing the awareness of CHIKV of general practitioners and public health officials through tailored education may be effective, especially in small coastal towns where the outbreak risk may be higher. A key element is also the shift of citizen awareness from considering Aedes mosquitoes not only as a nuisance problem but also as a public health one. We advocate the need of strengthening the surveillance and of promoting the active participation of the communities to prevent and contain future outbreaks.

Short-term exposure to PM2.5 and risk of venous thromboembolism: A case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Short-term exposure to air pollution increases the risk of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity but little evidence is available on pollution effects on venous thromboembolism (VTE), a common vascular disease. METHODS: We conducted a case-crossover analysis of all urgent hospitalizations for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) or pulmonary embolism (PE) among patients >35 years during the period 2006 to 2017 in Rome (Italy). We examined whether 1) short-term exposure to particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter <2.5 µg (PM2.5) increases the risk of hospitalization for DVT or PE, and 2) if the associations are modified by the period of the year (warm and cold seasons), sex, age and comorbidity. RESULTS: We found that short-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with an increase of PE hospitalization risk of during the warm season (April to September) of 19.6% (95% confidence intervals: 8.3, 31%) per 10 µg/m3, while no statistically significant effects were displayed during the cold season or the whole year or for DVT hospitalizations. The effect of PM2.5 remained significant (%change: 21.3; 95%CI: 5.4, 39.5) after adjustment for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) co-exposure (a marker of traffic sources) and when limiting to primary diagnosis of PE (%change: 19.1; 95%CI: 4.2, 36.1). Age, sex and comorbid conditions did not modify the association. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggested a positive association between short-term exposure to PM2.5 and pulmonary embolism during the warm period of the year while no evidence emerged for deep vein thrombosis.

A cohort study on long-term exposure to air pollution and incidence of liver cirrhosis.

Cirrhosis is an advanced liver disease affecting millions of people worldwide, involving high healthcare costs. Despite experimental evidence suggesting a possible role of airborne pollutants in liver diseases, epidemiological studies are lacking. We aimed at investigating the association between exposure to air pollutants and incidence of cirrhosis in a large population-based cohort in Rome. METHODS: We used an administrative cohort established from the 2001 census. We included all adults of 30 years of age or older who were free of cirrhosis, resulting in a study population of over 1.2 million subjects. Follow-up of the subjects ended on 31 December 2015. We ascertained incident cases of cirrhosis from regional mortality and hospital discharge registries using a validated algorithm. We assessed exposure of the subjects to PM10, PM coarse, PM2.5, PM2.5 absorbance, NO2, NOx, and PM metal components at their residential address using Land Use Regression models. We used Cox regression models, adjusted for relevant covariates, to estimate the association between air pollution exposure and cirrhosis incidence. RESULTS: We observed 10,111 incident cases of cirrhosis, with a crude incidence rate of 67 × 100,000 person-years. Long-term exposure to all pollutants tested was significantly associated with cirrhosis, e.g., PM10 (hazard ratios [HR], 1.05; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.09, per 10 µg/m3 increments), PM coarse (HR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.05-1.17, per 10 µg/m3 increments), PM2.5 (HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.03-1.13, per 5 µg/m3 increments), and NO2 (HR, 1.03; 95% CI, 1.02-1.05, per 10 µg/m3 increments). The associations were robust in secondary analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a possible contribution of air pollution to the development of cirrhosis.

The Ebola virus disease outbreak in Tonkolili district, Sierra Leone: a retrospective analysis of the Viral Haemorrhagic Fever surveillance system, July 2014-June 2015.

In Sierra Leone, the Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak occurred with substantial differences between districts with someone even not affected. To monitor the epidemic, a community event-based surveillance system was set up, collecting data into the Viral Haemorrhagic Fever (VHF) database. We analysed the VHF database of Tonkolili district to describe the epidemiology of the EVD outbreak during July 2014-June 2015 (data availability). Multivariable analysis was used to identify risk factors for EVD, fatal EVD and barriers to healthcare access, by comparing EVD-positive vs. EVD-negative cases. Key-performance indicators for EVD response were also measured. Overall, 454 EVD-positive cases were reported. At multivariable analysis, the odds of EVD was higher among those reporting contacts with an EVD-positive/suspected case (odds ratio (OR) 2.47; 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44-2.50; P < 0.01) and those attending funeral (OR 1.02; 95% CI 1.01-1.04; P < 0.01). EVD cases from Kunike chiefdom had a lower odds of death (OR 0.22; 95% CI 0.08-0.44; P < 0.01) and were also more likely to be hospitalised (OR 2.34; 95% CI 1.23-4.57; P < 0.05). Only 25.1% of alerts were generated within 1 day from symptom onset. EVD preparedness and response plans for Tonkolili should include social-mobilisation activities targeting Ebola/knowledge-attitudes-practice during funeral attendance, to avoid contact with suspected cases and to increase awareness on EVD symptoms, in order to reduce delays between symptom onset to alert generation and consequently improve the outbreak-response promptness.

Estimating the risk of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika outbreaks in a large European city.

Outbreaks of arbovirus infections vectored by invasive Aedes albopictus have already occurred and are predicted to become increasingly frequent in Southern Europe. We present a probabilistic model to assess risk of arbovirus outbreaks based on incident cases worldwide, on the probability of arrival of infected travelers, and on the abundance of the vector species. Our results show a significant risk of Chikungunya outbreak in Rome from mid June to October in simulations with high human biting rates (i.e. when ≥50% of the population is bitten every day). The outbreak risk is predicted to be highest for Chikungunya and null for Zika. Simulated increase of incident cases in selected endemic countries has no major impact on the outbreak risk. The model correctly estimated the number of imported cases and can be easily adapted to other urban areas where Ae. albopictus is the only potential vector present.

Association between PM10, PM2.5, NO2, O3 and self-reported diabetes in Italy: A cross-sectional, ecological study.

INTRODUCTION: Air pollution represents a serious threat to health on a global scale, being responsible for a large portion of the global burden of disease from environmental factors. Current evidence about the association between air pollution exposure and Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is still controversial. We aimed to evaluate the association between area-level ambient air pollution and self-reported DM in a large population sample in Italy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted information about self-reported and physician diagnosed DM, risk factors and socio-economic status from 12 surveys conducted nationwide between 1999 and 2013. We obtained annual averaged air pollution levels for the years 2003, 2005, 2007 and 2010 from the AMS-MINNI national integrated model, which simulates the dispersion and transformation of pollutants. The original maps, with a resolution of 4 x 4 km2, were normalized and aggregated at the municipality class of each Italian region, in order to match the survey data. We fit logistic regression models with a hierarchical structure to estimate the relationship between PM10, PM2.5, NO2 and O3 four-years mean levels and the risk of being affected by DM. RESULTS: We included 376,157 individuals aged more than 45 years. There were 39,969 cases of DM, with an average regional prevalence of 9.8% and a positive geographical North-to-South gradient, opposite to that of pollutants' concentrations. For each 10 µg/m3 increase, the resulting ORs were 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07) for PM10, 1.04 (95% CI 1.02-1.07) for PM2.5, 1.03 (95% CI 1.01-1.05) for NO2 and 1.06 (95% CI 1.01-1.11) for O3, after accounting for relevant individual risk factors. The associations were robust to adjustment for other pollutants in two-pollutant models tested (ozone plus each other pollutant). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a significant positive association between each examined pollutant and prevalent DM. Risk estimates were consistent with current evidence, and robust to sensitivity analysis. Our study adds evidence about the effects of air pollution on diabetes and suggests a possible role of ozone as an independent factor associated with the development of DM. Such relationship is of great interest for public health and deserves further investigation.