The public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The R21/Matrix-M vaccine has demonstrated high efficacy against Plasmodium falciparum clinical malaria in children in sub-Saharan Africa. Using trial data, we aimed to estimate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of vaccine introduction across sub-Saharan Africa. METHODS: We fitted a semi-mechanistic model of the relationship between anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres and vaccine efficacy to data from 3 years of follow-up in the phase 2b trial of R21/Matrix-M in Nanoro, Burkina Faso. We validated the model by comparing predicted vaccine efficacy to that observed over 12-18 months in the phase 3 trial. Integrating this framework within a mathematical transmission model, we estimated the cases, malaria deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and cost-effectiveness over a 15-year time horizon across a range of transmission settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Cost-effectiveness was estimated incorporating the cost of vaccine introduction (dose, consumables, and delivery) relative to existing interventions at baseline. We report estimates at a median of 20% parasite prevalence in children aged 2-10 years (PfPR2-10) and ranges from 3% to 65% PfPR2-10. FINDINGS: Anti-circumsporozoite protein antibody titres were found to satisfy the criteria for a surrogate of protection for vaccine efficacy against clinical malaria. Age-based implementation of a four-dose regimen of R21/Matrix-M vaccine was estimated to avert 181 825 (range 38 815-333 491) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in perennial settings and 202 017 (29 868-405 702) clinical cases per 100 000 fully vaccinated children in seasonal settings. Similar estimates were obtained for seasonal or hybrid implementation. Under an assumed vaccine dose price of US$3, the incremental cost per clinical case averted was $7 (range 4-48) in perennial settings and $6 (3-63) in seasonal settings and the incremental cost per DALY averted was $34 (29-139) in perennial settings and $30 (22-172) in seasonal settings, with lower cost-effectiveness ratios in settings with higher PfPR2-10. INTERPRETATION: Introduction of the R21/Matrix-M malaria vaccine could have a substantial public health benefit across sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: The Wellcome Trust, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the UK Medical Research Council, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2 and 3, the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and the Serum Institute of India, Open Philanthropy.

Associations between prenatal malaria exposure, maternal antibodies at birth, and malaria susceptibility during the first year of life in Burkina Faso.

In this study, we investigated how different categories of prenatal malaria exposure (PME) influence levels of maternal antibodies in cord blood samples and the subsequent risk of malaria in early childhood in a birth cohort study (N = 661) nested within the COSMIC clinical trial (NCT01941264) in Burkina Faso. Plasmodium falciparum infections during pregnancy and infants' clinical malaria episodes detected during the first year of life were recorded. The levels of maternal IgG and IgG1-4 to 15 P. falciparum antigens were measured in cord blood by quantitative suspension array technology. Results showed a significant variation in the magnitude of maternal antibody levels in cord blood, depending on the PME category, with past placental malaria (PM) more frequently associated with significant increases of IgG and/or subclass levels across three groups of antigens defined as pre-erythrocytic, erythrocytic, and markers of PM, as compared to those from the cord of non-exposed control infants. High levels of antibodies to certain erythrocytic antigens (i.e., IgG to EBA140 and EBA175, IgG1 to EBA175 and MSP142, and IgG3 to EBA140 and MSP5) were independent predictors of protection from clinical malaria during the first year of life. By contrast, high levels of IgG, IgG1, and IgG2 to the VAR2CSA DBL1-2 and IgG4 to DBL3-4 were significantly associated with an increased risk of clinical malaria. These findings indicate that PME categories have different effects on the levels of maternal-derived antibodies to malaria antigens in children at birth, and this might drive heterogeneity to clinical malaria susceptibility in early childhood.

Correction: Performance of PfHRP2­RDT for malaria diagnosis during the first year of life in a high malaria transmission area in Burkina Faso.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s12639-023-01566-x.].

Performance of PfHRP2-RDT for malaria diagnosis during the first year of life in a high malaria transmission area in Burkina Faso.

In this study, we evaluated the performance of a P. falciparum Histidine Rich Protein 2 (PfHRP2)-based rapid diagnostic test (RDT) used for malaria case detection (SD-Bioline malaria RDT P.f®) along with light microscopy (LM) against qPCR among children during the first year of life in a high and seasonal malaria transmission area in Burkina Faso. A total of 723 suspected malaria cases (including multiple episodes) that occurred among 414 children participating in a birth-cohort study were included in the present analysis. Factors including age at the time of malaria screening, transmission season and parasite densities were investigated for their potential influence in the performance of the RDT. Clinical malaria cases as detected by RDT, LM and qPCR were 63.8%, 41.5% and 49.8%, respectively. Compared with qPCR, RDT had a false-positive results rate of 26.7%, resulting in an overall accuracy of 79.9% with a sensitivity of 93%, a specificity of 66.1%, a Positive Predictive Value of 73.3% and a Negative Predictive Value of 91.6%. Its specificity differed significantly between high and low transmission seasons (53.7% vs 79.8%; P < 0.001) and decreased with increasing age (80.6-62%; P for trend = 0.024). The overall accuracy of LM was 91.1% and its performance was not significantly influenced by transmission season or age. These findings highlight the need to adapt malaria diagnostic tools recommendations to face the challenge of adequate malaria detection in this population group living in high burden and seasonal malaria transmission settings.

Genetic variation in the immune system and malaria susceptibility in infants: a nested case-control study in Nanoro, Burkina Faso.

BACKGROUND: Genetic polymorphisms in the human immune system modulate susceptibility to malaria. However, there is a paucity of data on the contribution of immunogenetic variants to malaria susceptibility in infants, who present differential biological features related to the immaturity of their adaptive immune system, the protective effect of maternal antibodies and fetal haemoglobin. This study investigated the association between genetic variation in innate immune response genes and malaria susceptibility during the first year of life in 656 infants from a birth cohort survey performed in Nanoro, Burkina Faso. METHODS: Seventeen single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 11 genes of the immune system previously associated with different malaria phenotypes were genotyped using TaqMan allelic hybridization assays in a Fluidigm platform. Plasmodium falciparum infection and clinical disease were documented by active and passive case detection. Case-control association analyses for both alleles and genotypes were carried out using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. For cytokines showing significant SNP associations in multivariate analyses, cord blood supernatant concentrations were measured by quantitative suspension array technology (Luminex). RESULTS: Genetic variants in IL-1ß (rs1143634) and FcγRIIA/CD32 (rs1801274)-both in allelic, dominant and co-dominant models-were significantly associated with protection from both P. falciparum infection and clinical malaria. Furthermore, heterozygote individuals with rs1801274 SNP in FcγRIIA/CD32 showed higher IL-1RA levels compared to wild-type homozygotes (P = 0.024), a cytokine whose production is promoted by the binding of IgG immune complexes to Fcγ receptors on effector immune cells. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that genetic polymorphisms in genes driving innate immune responses are associated to malaria susceptibility during the first year of life, possibly by modulating production of inflammatory mediators.

Modulation of innate immune responses at birth by prenatal malaria exposure and association with malaria risk during the first year of life.

BACKGROUND: Factors driving inter-individual differences in immune responses upon different types of prenatal malaria exposure (PME) and subsequent risk of malaria in infancy remain poorly understood. In this study, we examined the impact of four types of PME (i.e., maternal peripheral infection and placental acute, chronic, and past infections) on both spontaneous and toll-like receptors (TLRs)-mediated cytokine production in cord blood and how these innate immune responses modulate the risk of malaria during the first year of life. METHODS: We conducted a birth cohort study of 313 mother-child pairs nested within the COSMIC clinical trial (NCT01941264), which was assessing malaria preventive interventions during pregnancy in Burkina Faso. Malaria infections during pregnancy and infants' clinical malaria episodes detected during the first year of life were recorded. Supernatant concentrations of 30 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors induced by stimulation of cord blood with agonists of TLRs 3, 7/8, and 9 were measured by quantitative suspension array technology. Crude concentrations and ratios of TLR-mediated cytokine responses relative to background control were analyzed. RESULTS: Spontaneous production of innate immune biomarkers was significantly reduced in cord blood of infants exposed to malaria, with variation among PME groups, as compared to those from the non-exposed control group. However, following TLR7/8 stimulation, which showed higher induction of cytokines/chemokines/growth factors than TLRs 3 and 9, cord blood cells of infants with evidence of past placental malaria were hyper-responsive in comparison to those of infants not-exposed. In addition, certain biomarkers, which levels were significantly modified depending on the PME category, were independent predictors of either malaria risk (GM-CSF TLR7/8 crude) or protection (IL-12 TLR7/8 ratio and IP-10 TLR3 crude, IL-1RA TLR7/8 ratio) during the first year of life. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate that past placental malaria has a profound effect on fetal immune system and that the differential alterations of innate immune responses by PME categories might drive heterogeneity between individuals to clinical malaria susceptibility during the first year of life.

Malaria incidence and prevalence during the first year of life in Nanoro, Burkina Faso: a birth-cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Infants are thought to be protected against malaria during the first months of life mainly due to passage of maternal antibodies. However, in high transmission settings, malaria in early infancy is not uncommon and susceptibility to the infections varies between individuals. This study aimed to determine malaria morbidity and infection during early childhood in rural Burkina Faso. METHODS: Malariometric indices were determined over 1-year follow-up in a birth cohort of 734 infants living in Nanoro health district. Clinical malaria episodes were determined by passive case detection at peripheral health centres while asymptomatic malaria infections were identified during  4 cross-sectional surveys at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months of age. Plasmodium falciparum infections were detected by rapid diagnostic test and/or light microscopy (LM) and quantitative PCR (qPCR). RESULTS: In total, 717 clinical episodes were diagnosed by qPCR over 8335.18 person-months at risk. The overall malaria incidence was 1.03 per child-year and increased from 0.27 per child-year at 0-3 months of age to 1.92 per child-year at 9-12 months of age. Some 59% of children experienced at least one clinical episode with a median survival time estimated at 9.9 months, while 20% of infants experienced the first episode before 6 months of age. The majority of the clinical episodes were attributable to microscopic parasitaemia (84.2%), and there was a positive correlation between parasite density and age (Spearman's rho = 0.30; P < 0.0001). Prevalence of asymptomatic infections was similar at 3, 6 and 9 months of age (17.7-20.1%) and nearly 1.6 times higher at 12 months (31.3%). Importantly, gametocyte prevalence among the LM-positive study population was 6.7%, but increased to 10% among asymptomatic infections. In addition, 46% of asymptomatic infections were only detected by qPCR suggesting that infants below 1 year are a potential reservoir for sustaining malaria transmission. Both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections showed marked seasonal distribution with the highest transmission period (July to December) accounting for about 89 and 77% of those infections, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate high and marked age and seasonal-dependency of malaria infections and disease during the first year of life in Nanoro, calling for intensified efforts to control malaria in rural Burkina Faso.

Additional Screening and Treatment of Malaria During Pregnancy Provides Further Protection Against Malaria and Nonmalarial Fevers During the First Year of Life.

Background: Although consensus exists that malaria in pregnancy (MiP) increases the risk of malaria in infancy, and eventually nonmalarial fevers (NMFs), there is a lack of conclusive evidence of benefits of MiP preventive strategies in infants. Methods: In Burkina Faso, a birth cohort study was nested to a clinical trial assessing the effectiveness of a community-based scheduled screening and treatment of malaria in combination with intermittent preventive treatment with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (CSST/IPTp-SP) to prevent placental malaria. Clinical episodes and asymptomatic infections were monitored over 1 year of follow-up to compare the effect of CSST/IPTp-SP and standard IPTp-SP on malaria and NMFs. Results: Infants born during low-transmission season from mothers receiving CSST/IPTp-SP had a 26% decreased risk of experiencing a first clinical episode (hazard ratio, 0.74 [95% confidence interval, .55-0.99]; P = .047). CSST/IPTp-SP interacted with birth season and gravidity to reduce the incidence of NMFs. No significant effects of CSST/IPTp-SP on the incidence of clinical episodes, parasite density, and Plasmodium falciparum infections were observed. Conclusions: Our findings indicate that CSST/IPTp-SP strategy may provide additional protection against both malaria and NMFs in infants during the first year of life, and suggest that malaria control interventions during pregnancy could have long-term benefits in infants.

Diagnosing congenital malaria in a high-transmission setting: clinical relevance and usefulness of P. falciparum HRP2-based testing.

Congenital malaria diagnosis is challenging due to frequently observed low parasite density infections, while their clinical relevance during early infancy is not well characterized. In Nanoro health district (Burkina Faso), we determined the prevalence of congenital malaria by real-time quantitative PCR and we assessed the performance of rapid diagnosis test (RDT) and light microscopy (LM) to detect Plasmodium falciparum infections in cord-blood samples. In addition, we examined the usefulness of P. falciparum Histidine Rich Protein2 (PfHRP2) as surrogate biomarker of infection and explored association between congenital malaria and clinical outcomes. A prevalence of congenital malaria by qPCR of 4% (16/400) was found, which increased to 10% among newborns from mothers infected at delivery. RDT and LM showed poor performances indicating limited utility for congenital malaria screening in cord blood. Because PfHRP2 detection in cord blood could be affected by transplacental passage of parasite antigens, PfHRP2 might not be used as a surrogate biomarker of congenital malaria infections. There was no evidence of a significant clinical impact of congenital malaria on infant's health from birth to 59 days of life. Case control studies including long-term follow up may provide additional understanding on the relevance of neonatal malaria infections.