Evaluation of cost-effectiveness of single-credit traffic safety course based on Kirkpatrick model: a case study of Iran.

BACKGROUND: Training plays a role in reducing traffic accidents, and evaluating the effectiveness of training programs in managers' decision-making for training continuation is important. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a single-credit traffic safety course based on the four levels of the Kirkpatrick model in all Iranian universities. METHODS: This interventional study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a single-credit traffic safety course based on the Kirkpatrick model from 2016 to 2020 in Iran. The data were collected in three stages: (1) calculating the costs of offering traffic safety courses, (2) determining the effectiveness of providing such courses based on the levels of the Kirkpatrick model, and (3) evaluating the cost-effectiveness of administering traffic safety courses. Data were collected through researcher-made and standardized questionnaires. The research population included traffic safety course instructors and university students who could take this course. Finally, the data were analyzed with SPSS v. 23 and also calculations related to ICER, which shows the cost effectiveness of providing single credit course. RESULTS: Scores of the students' reaction level to the traffic safety course was 41.8% before the course; this score was estimated at 67% after the course. At the level of learning, students' knowledge was 43.6% before the training course, which reached 73% after the course. At the level of behavior, the state of students' desirable traffic behaviors was 54% before the course, which reached 66.1% after the course. The educational effectiveness of the course presentation at the level of results was 58.2% before and 74.8% after the course. While assuming that the weights of all model levels were constant, the cost of a 1% increase in the overall educational effectiveness by using the Kirkpatrick model, compared to not providing the course (not administering the intervention) was 486.46 USD. CONCLUSION: The results showcased the effectiveness of the traffic safety course in all four levels of The Kirkpatrick model. Therefore, policy-makers and officials in charge of delivering this program should strengthen it and resolve its deficiencies to realize all its educational goals at the highest level.

Association metrological factors with Covid-19 mortality in Tehran, Iran (2020-2021).

The outbreak of the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has raised questions about the potential role of climate and environmental factors in disease transmission. This study examined meteorological and demographic factors to determine their impact on mortality and hospitalization rates in Tehran, Iran from January 1, 2021, to December 31, 2022. Notably, hospitalization cases were positively associated with temperature (P-value: 0.001 in spring, P-value: 0.045 in winter) and pressure (P-value: 0.004 in spring), while being negatively associated with wind speed (P-value: 0.03 in spring, P-value: 0.01 in autumn) and humidity (P-value: 0.001 in autumn) during the spring and autumn seasons. Conversely, mortality was associated with wind speed (P-value: 0.01) and pressure (P-value: 0.02) during winter and spring, respectively. Moreover, temperature was associated with mortality in both spring (P-value: 0.00) and winter (P-value: 0.04). The findings suggest that identifying the environmental factors that contribute to the spread of COVID-19 can help prevent future waves of the pandemic in Tehran.

Novel Anthropometric Indices as Screening Tools for Obesity: A Study on Healthy Iranians.

Background and Aims: Upper body fat distribution is more related to cardiometabolic diseases than central obesity. Neck circumference (NC) and neck-to-height ratio (NHtR) are two indicators of upper body obesity that are affordable, easy to obtain, highly reproducible, and more practical in the crowded health centers than the classic anthropometric indices. Methods: 18-65-year-old individuals with no past medical history were included. After obtaining written informed consent, they were screened for hypertension, high blood glucose, and other abnormal laboratory results. Data were analyzed using SPSS and Mann-Whitney U test, Chi square test, Spearman's correlation coefficient, and ROC curve. Results: In our 2,812 participants, NC had the lowest area under the curve (AUC) in both male and female obese and overweight subjects. NHtR and hip circumference (HC) had the highest AUC in men and women with obesity, respectively. The highest sensitivity for overweight men and women belonged to waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), respectively, and for both males and females with obesity, NHtR had the highest sensitivity. The cutoff point of NHtR had the same value for males and females. HC and NHtR had the highest positive likelihood ratio (PLR) for obesity in men. In addition, HC and WC had the highest PLR for obesity in women. Conclusion: In this study, we revealed that NC had the lowest and NHtR and HC had the highest predictive value for obesity. Furthermore, for both males and females with obesity, NHtR had the highest sensitivity. HC had the highest PLR for obesity in both genders. Our results warrant prospective studies to evaluate the role of NHtR and other novel anthropometric indices in the risk of cardiometabolic diseases.

Exploring the Causal Impact of Age and Nighttime Driving on Road Traffic Injuries among Elderly Drivers: A Bayesian LASSO Approach.

Objective: To determine the causal relationship between aging and nighttime driving and the odds of injury among elderly drivers. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 5460 car accidents were investigated from 2015 to 2016. The data were extracted from the Iranian Integrated Road Traffic Injury Registry System. Pedestrian accidents, motorcycle crashes, and fatalities were excluded from the study. To account for major confounders, Bayesian-LASSO, and treatment-effect cutting-edge approaches were used. Results: Overall, 801 injuries (14.67%) were evaluated. The results of the univariable analysis indicated that aging and nighttime had adverse effects on the odds of road traffic injuries (RTIs), even after adjusting for the effect of other variables, these effects remained statistically significant. According to a newly developed approach, the overall effects of aging and nighttime were significantly and directly correlated with the odds of being injured for older adults (both p<0.001). Our findings indicated that drivers over 75 years old experienced 23% higher injury odds (OR=1.23, 95% CI:1.11 to 1.39; p<0.001), while driving at night increased the odds by 1.78 times (OR=1.78, 95% CI:1.51 to 1.83; p<0.001). Conclusion: Aging and nighttime driving are significant risk factors for RTIs among elderly drivers. This highlights the importance of implementing targeted interventions to enhance road safety for this vulnerable population. Furthermore, the use of advanced Bayesian-LASSO and treatment-effect statistical methods highlights the importance of utilizing sophisticated methodologies in epidemiological research to effectively capture and adjust for potential confounding factors.

Developing and validating an instrument to assess women's empowerment in dealing with domestic violence in Iran: a mixed-methods study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Despite the emphasis on empowerment in interventions supporting women against domestic violence and ending spousal abuse, there is still no standard and accurate instrument to evaluate women's empowerment in this field. This study proposes a protocol to fill this gap by developing and psychometrically testing a standardised instrument for assessing women's empowerment in dealing with domestic violence (WEDDV). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This study will be conducted in Iran in a mixed method with a sequential exploratory design (qualitative-quantitative). In the first phase, qualitative methods will be used to generate items, rank and identify essential items for WEDDV conceptualisation. The data collection method in this phase includes semistructured face-to-face interviews with married women, a review of related literature, and a fuzzy Delphi method with participants with work experience and expertise about violence against women. Qualitative data analysis will be done using a content analysis strategy and MAXQDA 2020 software. In the second phase of the study, the psychometric properties of the instrument, including face, content and construct validity, and the instrument's reliability will be evaluated. Also, the psychometric features of the COSMIN checklist will be used in the design of this instrument. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol has been approved by the Research Ethics Committee of Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences with code (IR.SBMU.PHNS.REC.1400.011). The findings will be published in prestigious journals and presented at national and international conferences. We hope that these results can provide a practical framework for planning and organising domestic violence interventions for policy-makers, researchers and women's health and counselling service providers.

Economic Evaluation Approaches in the Field of Disaster Health Management.

BACKGROUND: Economic evaluation approaches are needed to establish useful interventions for saving lives, preventing economic damage, and saving recovery costs at the time of disasters. Thus, the present study is aimed to identify the studies that applied economic evaluation approaches/methods for evaluating the economic costs of disasters. METHODS: A scoping review was conducted to find the eligible studies and perform a comprehensive data analysis. RESULTS: Based on the findings, cost-effectiveness analysis, economic loss assessment, modeling, or mapping, as well as behavioral economic analysis were used as the economic evaluation approaches/methods. CONCLUSIONS: Applying economic evaluation approaches to illustrate the economic costs of disasters is highly recommended. Managing competing priorities and optimizing resources allocations to the most cost-effective interventions can be achieved by cost-effectiveness analysis. The results of economic loss assessment can be used as the basis of disaster preparedness and response planning. Economic modeling can be applied to compare different interventions and anticipate socio-economic effects of disasters. A behavioral economic approach can be effective for decision-making in the field of disaster health management. Further research is needed to identify the advantages and limitations of each economic evaluation method/approach in the field of health in disasters. Such research can preferably be designed as the systematic review and meta-analysis.

The Role of the Health Belief Model in Explaining Why Symptomatic Iranian Women Hesitate to Seek Early Screening for Breast Cancer: a Qualitative Study.

Early detection of breast cancer (BC) is important to increase the likelihood of treatment and improve the quality of life and survival. The study explored why symptomatic women linger to seek early screening for BC diagnosis based on the health belief model (HBM). In this qualitative study, 20 participants were selected using the purposive sampling method (9 health professionals and 11 female patients BC). Data were collected using in-depth, semi-structured interviews in 2019. Transcribed interview data were analyzed using the directed content analysis informed by HBM. According to the participants' experiences, although most patients comprehended the extent of the disease, they did not see themselves at risk of BC. Some were not adequately aware of the benefits of early diagnosis and did not have the self-efficacy required for early presentation. The main barriers to the early presentation included lack of awareness, financial problems, embarrassment over the clinical examination, and inadequate access to specialized centers. According to HBM, while designing and implementing educational programs, it is recommended to focus on reinforcing perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, and perceived self-efficacy, providing access to facilities, and removing possible barriers and cultural issues to encourage women for timely referral for BC screening.

Designing a conceptual model for the formation of unsafe antisocial behaviors in motor vehicle drivers: a grounded theory study.

BACKGROUND: Many accidents caused by vehicles are the result of improper driving behavior. Use the vehicle in an antisocial form has led to a phenomenon called driving violence. Antisocial behavior while driving has a potential risk to other road users. This study aims to explain the conceptual framework of the formation of unsafe antisocial behaviors in the road traffic field. METHODS: This qualitative grounded theory study was conducted with exploratory methods. 31 participants were included in this study. Purposeful and theoretical sampling was used in this study. The data collection process was semi-structured interviews. Codes, subcategories, and categories were extracted by the inductive process and analyzed by Corbin and Strauss approach. Trustworthiness criteria were used to assure the quality of the results. The data analysis process continued until there were no new concepts. RESULTS: A conceptual model was developed to explain the different relationships between the main categories extracted from the study. 10 main categories with 44 subcategories were extracted. Categories include cultural factors, educational factors, rules, economic factors, psychological factors, infrastructure weakness, poor socialization of individuals, violent driving, reduced social welfare and reduced traffic safety. CONCLUSIONS: The people's socialization weakness in society was considered as the core concept in the process of formation of these behaviors. The conceptual model obtained from this study can be used in developing prevention programs and identifying the required interventions Considering the negative consequences caused by this type of behavior, its prevention should be the focus of road traffic policy makers.

Setting research priorities to achieve long-term national road safety goals in Iran.

Background: Road traffic crashes (RTCs) and its associated injuries are one of the most important public health problems in the world. In Iran, RTCs rank second in terms of mortality. To address this issue, there is a need for research-based interventions. Prioritizing researches using a variety of approaches and frameworks to determine the most effective interventions is a key nodal point in the RTCs' research policy planning cycle. Thus, this study aims to generate and prioritize research questions in the field of RTCs in Iran. Methods: By adapting the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method, this study engaged 25 prominent Iranian academic leaders having role in setting Iran's long-term road safety goals, a group of research funders, and policymakers. The experts' proposed research questions were independently scored on a set of criteria: feasibility, impact on health, impact on the economy, capacity building, and equity. Following the prioritization of Research Questions (RQs), they were all classified using the 5 Pillar frameworks. Results: In total, 145 Research Questions were systematically scored by experts against five criteria. Iran's top 20 road traffic safety priorities were established. The RQs related to "road safety management" and "road and infrastructure" achieved a high frequency. Conclusions: The top 20 research questions in the area of RTCs in Iran were determined by experts. The majority of these RQs were related to "road safety management". The results of this study may contribute to the optimal use of resources in achieving long-term goals in the prevention and control of road traffic crashes and its related injuries. Considering these RQs as research investment options will improve the current status of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) at a national level and further advance toward compliance with international goals. If these research priorities are addressed, and their findings are implemented, we can anticipate a significant reduction in the number of crashes, injuries, and deaths.

A model for Vision Zero implementation in Iran: a grounded theory study.

BACKGROUND: Road Traffic injuries (RTIs) are major global health issues, but they have been neglected. RTIs are multi-faceted in nature and, like many injuries, are costly but preventable. Iran has one of the highest rates of deaths due to traffic accidents among middle-income countries. Hence, there is a need for effective and preventive approaches in road safety management. One of the new approaches to road safety is the Vision Zero. The aim of this study was to design a Vision Zero implementation model in Iran. METHODS: This present study was conducted using the qualitative grounded theory approach. Purposive, snowball and maximum variety sampling were used to select participants. In-depth interviews were used to collect data. Grounded theory method was used to analyze the data using Corbin and Strauss method. RESULTS: In this study, 19 interviews were conducted with 17 participants. Based on data analysis, a total of 4 main categories and 13 subcategories were obtained. According to the participants, the lead agency was recognized as the core category. Other concepts were categorized as causal conditions, intervening conditions, contextual conditions, action/interaction strategies, and consequences. CONCLUSIONS: Establishing a lead agency with inter-organizational coordination through political support and legislation and changing the approach of road safety can be effective in implementing a Vision Zero. Also, improving the safety attitude of the stakeholders and changing their approach through training and advocacy from various organizations related to road safety is effective in creating a lead agency and implementing a vision zero. In addition, in order to implementation of the model, it is very important to pay attention to the economic, political and ethical underlying factors towards human beings.

Comparative analysis of anthropometric indices with serum uric acid in Iranian healthy population.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between elevated serum uric acid (SUA) levels and hypertension, metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular disease has been established. In this study, the relation of SUA levels to anthropometric indices, blood cell count and lipid profile was examined. METHODS: Anthropometric parameters including body-mass index, waist circumference, waist to height ratio, waist to hip ratio, waist to pelvic ratio, neck circumference (NC), body fat mass (BFM), basal metabolic rate (BMR), visceral fat level (VFL) and percent body fat (PBF), along with complete blood cell count, lipid profile and SUA were obtained from 2921 young and middle-aged Iranian healthy subjects. To assess the normality of data, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test was used. Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, Chi-square and Spearman correlation tests were used for evaluating the association between variables. Simple and multiple regression analyses were also performed. RESULTS: The results of data analysis showed all studied factors were correlated with SUA level except VFL, BFM, and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio. The highest correlation was with NC, BMR, hematocrits (HCT) and triglycerides (TG). The backward method revealed that TG, LDL, HDL, neutrophil, lymphocyte, platelet, HCT, BMR and skinfold fat thickness were factors related to SUA. CONCLUSIONS: According to the finding of this study, SUA level is related to anthropometric indices, lipid profile and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio in healthy population. SUA measurement might be advisable to identify those at increased risk of health problems whom might benefit from further evaluation.

Longitudinal effects of lipid indices on incident cardiovascular diseases adjusting for time-varying confounding using marginal structural models: 25 years follow-up of two US cohort studies.

Background: This study assesses the effect of blood lipid indices and lipid ratios on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) using inverse probability-of-exposure weighted estimation of marginal structural models (MSMs). Methods: A pooled dataset of two US representative cohort studies, including 16736 participants aged 42-84 years with complete information at baseline, was used. The effect of each lipid index, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglyceride (TG), ratios of TC/HDL-C, LDL-C/HDL-C, and TG/HDL-C on coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke were estimated using weighted Cox regression. Results: There were 1638 cases of CHD and 1017 cases of stroke during a median follow-up of 17.1 years (interquartile range: 8.5 to 25.7). Compared to optimal levels, the risk of CVD outcomes increased substantially in high levels of TC, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, and LDL-C/HDL-C. If everyone had always had high levels of TC (≥240 mg/dL), risk of CHD would have been 2.15 times higher, and risk of stroke 1.35 times higher than if they had always had optimal levels (<200 mg/dL). Moreover, if all participants had been kept at very high (≥190 mg/dL) levels of LDL-C, risk of CHD would have been 2.62 times higher and risk of stroke would have been 1.92 times higher than if all participants had been kept at optimal levels, respectively. Our results suggest that high levels of HDL-C may be protective for CHD, but not for stroke. There was also no evidence of an adverse effect of high triglyceride levels on stroke. Conclusions: Using MSM, this study highlights the effect of TC and LDL-C on CVD, with a stronger effect on CHD than on stroke. There was no evidence for a protective effect of high levels of HDL-C on stroke. Besides, triglyceride was not found to affect stroke.

Multi-trajectories of lipid indices with incident cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and all-cause mortality: 23 years follow-up of two US cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the distinct patterns (trajectories) of variation in blood lipid levels before diagnosing cardiovascular disease (CVD) might carry important implications for improving disease prevention or treatment. METHODS: We investigated 14,373 participants (45.5% men) aged 45-84 from two large US prospective cohort studies with a median of 23 years follow-up. First, we jointly estimated developmental trajectories of lipid indices, including low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride (TG) concentrations using group-based multi-trajectory modeling. Then, the association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD, heart failure, and all-cause mortality were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Seven distinct multi-trajectories were identified. The majority of participants (approximately 80%) exhibited decreasing LDL-C but rising TG levels and relatively stable HDL-C levels. Compared to the individuals with healthy and stable LDL-C, HDL-C, and TG levels, those in other groups were at significant risk of incident CVD after adjusting for other conventional risk factors. Individuals with the highest but decreasing LDL-C and borderline high and rising TG levels over time were at the highest risk than those in other groups with a 2.22-fold risk of CVD. Also, those with the highest and increased triglyceride levels over time, over optimal and decreasing LDL-C levels, and the lowest HDL-C profile had a nearly 1.84 times CVD risk. Even individuals in the multi-trajectory group with the highest HDL-C, optimal LDL-C, and optimal TG levels had a significant risk (HR, 1.45; 95% CI 1.02-2.08). Furthermore, only those with the highest HDL-C profile increased the risk of heart failure by 1.5-fold (95% CI 1.07-2.06). CONCLUSIONS: The trajectories and risk of CVD identified in this study demonstrated that despite a decline in LDL-C over time, a significant amount of residual risk for CVD remains. These findings suggest the impact of the increasing trend of TG on CVD risk and emphasize the importance of assessing the lipid levels at each visit and undertaking potential interventions that lower triglyceride concentrations to reduce the residual risk of CVD, even among those with the optimal LDL-C level.

Exploring the Factors Affecting Unsafe Antisocial Behaviors of Drivers in Iran: A Qualitative Study.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the factors affecting unsafe antisocial behaviors of drivers in the context of Iran. METHODS: The interviews were conducted from June to November 2019. A number of 19 participants were selected using purposive sampling method. The data were collected using face to face in-depth semi-structured interviews. Content analysis using Granheim's approach was applied for data analysis. RESULTS: Seven categories and 14 sub-categories were extracted from the data. The categories included cultural factors, educational and training factors, laws, imitating, substance abuse, awareness and attitude, and psychological problems. CONCLUSION: Based on the findings, various cultural, legal, educational, individual and psychological factors affect the unsafe antisocial behavior in driving. Seemingly, such behaviors could increase the chance of death or injury caused by road traffic crashes among the road users and affect social welfare of the citizens and road user's safety.

Iran COVID-19 Epidemiology Committee: A Review of Missions, Structures, Achievements, and Challenges.

BACKGROUND: Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Iran, the control and management of the epidemic were headed by the National Headquarter for the Control of COVID-19 Epidemic through setting up different scientific committees, including the COVID-19 National Epidemiology Committee. The present study reviews the missions, structures, achievements, and challenges of the Epidemiology Committee. STUDY DESIGN: A rapid review . METHODS: All relevant reports, documents, guidelines, published literature, and surveillance data related to the establishment, visions, missions, roles, activities, and outputs of the COVID-19 Epidemiology Committee were critically reviewed in this study. RESULTS: The efforts of the committee's working groups may have impacted improvements in data registration/usage, provincial data quality at provincial levels, and perception of the epidemic situation in the provinces. The committees have also played role in informing the policies in different stages of the epidemic through routine or problem-based data/evidence analyses, epidemic investigations, and mathematical modeling. CONCLUSION: The structure and experience gained by the committee can be used in similar situations within and outside the country. To further improve the impacts of our activities, it is essential to have effective interaction, collaboration, and data flow between the committee and a broad range of organizations within and outside the Ministry of Health and Medical Education.

Effectiveness of the Preventive Intervention of Chromosomal Disorders of Iran's Community Genetics Program: Application of Bayesian Network.

Background: Evidence-based policymaking for the genetic preventive interventions at the community level requires information on the effectiveness of interventions in the operational areas taking into account the characteristics of health system and customer behaviour. These information are limited in many low- and middle-income countries. In this study, we estimated the effectiveness of preventive interventions for chromosomal disorders using the conceptual framework of Iran's community genetics program (ICGP) using a Bayesian Network as a modeling method in limited access situation to the complete and accurate observational data. Methods: Expert elicitation method based on global and national scientific evidences was applied to determine the structure of the Bayesian Network (BN) and to quantify the probability of nodes. The nomological and face validity of the network was checked. Also, a sensitivity analysis against the sources of uncertainty of probabilities was conducted. Results: By ICGP interventions, 63% (95% CI, 0.55-0.71) of all chromosomal disorders can be prevented, which is responsible for 80% (95% CI, 0.76-0.84) and 38% (95% CI, 0.31-0.45) reduction of expected baseline birth prevalence of trisomis and other autosomal disorders, respectively. Improving the access to and the uptake of screening service can also result in a 12% and 11% increase in effectiveness, respectively. Conclusion: Effectiveness of ICGP's intervention is between the same interventions' effectiveness in Western Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean region. Opportunities for increasing the uptake of and the access to the interventions are strengthening the public genetic literacy and implantation of a system of laboratory sample transfer at the side of the utilization of telehealth for delivering the counseling services at remote areas.

The Prevalence of Addiction to Social Network Among Students in Iran and its Factors Related: A Study Conducted in 2020.

BACKGROUND: In the present era, the prevalence of addiction to social networks has shown that many users, including students, are detaching from the real world. Therefore, this study aims to estimate the prevalence of addiction to the social networks among students in Iran and its related factors. METHODS: This is a cross-sectional study conducted in 2020 on 1000 students in Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. The data collection tool was a standardized questionnaire about addiction to the social networks distributed online among students. Statistical data were analyzed using Stata software version 14. RESULTS: Generally, 462 students (44%) had addiction to social networks, of which 449 (90.04%) had slight addiction and 13 (9.96%) had severe addiction. The results showed that age (p = 0.001), type of disciplines in the treatment-related subgroup (p = 0.03) and using nerve medicine (p = 0.0001) had significant relationships with addiction to social networks. CONCLUSION: Considering that a high number of students in the present study are at high risk of addiction, it is suggested that educational programs should be implemented to improve the knowledge of parents and students for optimal use of social networks and raise awareness of the harmful consequences of addiction.

World Health Organization's estimates of death related to road traffic crashes and their discrepancy with other countries' national report.

BACKGROUND: Due to a lack of effective registry system for road traffic deaths, some international organizations like the World Health Organization provide the estimated number of road traffic deaths. It was shown that there are differences in the number of road traffic deaths between the WHO estimates and national reports even in High-Income Countries. This study aimed to an investigation of reasons for differences between the national reports and world health organization estimates about road traffic deaths. METHODS: This study focus to investigate the World Health Organization reports of Global Status Report for Road Safety in years of 2009, 2013, 2015 and 2018 and related articles about the estimates of deaths related to road traffic crashes and the observed differences between the WHO estimates and national reports. RESULTS: The findings showed that the observed differences between the WHO estimates and national reports could be due to errors in the road traffic death registration system, errors in the regression model which was used for estimation, proposed variables for estimations, or all of them. CONCLUSIONS: The estimations of WHO about road traffic deaths can be useful for countries especially for those which don't have the road traffic registry system or the registry system does not meet the quality criteria. These estimates may not be sufficiently robust if disregard for spatial differences, the epidemiological pattern of risk factors among the countries, and the type of regression model which was used for estimation.

Seizure Prediction Model in Acute Tramadol Poisoning; a Derivation and Validation study.

INTRODUCTION: Seizure is a common complication of tramadol poisoning and predicting it will help clinicians in preventing seizure and better management of patients. This study aimed to develop and validate a prediction model to assess the risk of seizure in acute tramadol poisoning. METHODS: This retrospective observational study was conducted on 909 patients with acute tramadol poisoning in Baharloo Hospital, Tehran, Iran, (2015-2019). Several available demographic, clinical, and para-clinical characteristics were considered as potential predictors of seizure and extracted from clinical records. The data were split into derivation and validation sets (70/30 split) via random sampling. Derivation set was used to develop a multivariable logistic regression model. The model was tested on the validation set and its performance was assessed with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: The mean (standard deviation (SD)) of patients' age was 23.75 (7.47) years and 683 (75.1%) of them were male. Seizures occurred in 541 (60%) patients.  Univariate analysis indicated that sex, pulse rate (PR), arterial blood Carbone dioxide pressure (PCO2), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), blood bicarbonate level, pH, and serum sodium level could predict the chance of seizure in acute tramadol poisoning. The final model in derivation set consisted of sex, PR, GCS, pH, and blood bicarbonate level. The model showed good accuracy on the validation set with an area under the ROC curve of 0.77 (95% CI: 0.67-0.87). CONCLUSION: Representation of this model as a decision tree could help clinicians to identify high-risk patients with tramadol poisoning-induced seizure and in decision-making at triage of emergency departments in hospitals.

Impact of secondhand smoke exposure in former smokers on their subsequent risk of coronary heart disease: evidence from the population-based cohort of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study.

OBJECTIVES: Cigarette smoking is an established, strong, and modifiable risk factor for coronary heart disease (CHD). However, little research has investigated CHD risk in former smokers who continue to be exposed to others' cigarette smoke (former & secondhand smokers). METHODS: In the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study, a prospective population-based cohort (n=20,069) was followed up for a median period of 14.6 years. A subset of 8,050 participants of 30 years of age and older was analyzed, with first CHD events as the study outcome. Participants were categorized as never, former, current, secondhand, and former & secondhand smokers. Data on smoking intensity (cigarette/d) were also collected. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was applied to estimate the risk of CHD, taking into account the main potential confounders. RESULTS: The mean age of participants was 46.10 ±11.38 years, and they experienced 1,118 first CHD events (with most CHD cases in former smokers) during the follow-up period. The risk of CHD was highest in current smokers, followed in order by former & secondhand, former, and secondhand smokers (hazard ratio [HR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65 to 2.39; HR, 1.55; 95% CI, 1.15 to 2.08; HR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.72; HR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.51, respectively), compared to never smokers. The risk of CHD increased with smoking intensity, which has been proposed as a preferable measure of smoking, indicating a dose-response pattern. CONCLUSIONS: The elevated risk of CHD in former & secondhand smokers was a noteworthy finding, with possible implications for health policy; however, further research is needed.