Two decades of change in sea star abundance at a subtidal site in Puget Sound, Washington.

Long-term datasets can reveal otherwise undetectable ecological trends, illuminating the historical context of contemporary ecosystem states. We used two decades (1997-2019) of scientific trawling data from a subtidal, benthic site in Puget Sound, Washington, USA to test for gradual trends and sudden shifts in total sea star abundance across 11 species. We specifically assessed whether this community responded to the sea star wasting disease (SSWD) epizootic, which began in 2013. We sampled at depths of 10, 25, 50 and 70 m near Port Madison, WA, and obtained long-term water temperature data. To account for species-level differences in SSWD susceptibility, we divided our sea star abundance data into two categories, depending on the extent to which the species is susceptible to SSWD, then conducted parallel analyses for high-susceptibility and moderate-susceptibility species. The abundance of high-susceptibility sea stars declined in 2014 across depths. In contrast, the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species trended downward throughout the years at the deepest depths- 50 and 70 m-and suddenly declined in 2006 across depths. Water temperature was positively correlated with the abundance of moderate-susceptibility species, and uncorrelated with high-susceptibility sea star abundance. The reported emergence of SSWD in Washington State in the summer of 2014 provides a plausible explanation for the subsequent decline in abundance of high-susceptibility species. However, no long-term stressors or mortality events affecting sea stars were reported in Washington State prior to these years, leaving the declines we observed in moderate-susceptibility species preceding the 2013-2015 SSWD epizootic unexplained. These results suggest that the subtidal sea star community in Port Madison is dynamic, and emphasizes the value of long-term datasets for evaluating patterns of change.

Effects of population density and environmental conditions on life-history prevalence in a migratory fish.

Individual variation in life-history traits can have important implications for the ability of populations to respond to environmental variability and change. In migratory animals, flexibility in the timing of life-history events, such as juvenile emigration from natal areas, can influence the effects of population density and environmental conditions on habitat use and population dynamics. We evaluated the functional relationships between population density and environmental covariates and the abundance of juveniles expressing different life-history pathways in a migratory fish, Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), in the Wenatchee River basin in Washington State, USA. We found that the abundance of younger emigrants from natal streams was best described by an accelerating or near-linear function of spawners, whereas the abundance of older emigrants was best described by a decelerating function of spawners. This supports the hypothesis that emigration timing varies in response to density in natal areas, with younger-emigrating life-history pathways comprising a larger proportion of emigrants when densities of conspecifics are high. We also observed positive relationships between winter stream discharge and abundance of younger emigrants, supporting the hypothesis that habitat conditions can also influence the prevalence of different life-history pathways. Our results suggest that early emigration, and a resultant increase in the use of downstream rearing habitats, may increase at higher population densities and with greater winter precipitation. Winter precipitation is projected to increase in this system due to climate warming. Characterizing relationships between life-history prevalence and environmental conditions may improve our understanding of species habitat requirements and is a first step in understanding the dynamics of species with diverse life-history strategies. As environmental conditions change-due to climate change, management, or other factors-resultant life-history changes are likely to have important demographic implications that will be challenging to predict when life-history diversity is not accounted for in population models.