Validation of oil fate and mass balance for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill: Evaluation of water column partitioning.

Model predictions of oil transport and fate for the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil spill (Gulf of Mexico) were compared to field observations and absolute and relative concentrations of oil compounds in samples from 900 to 1400 m depth <11 km from the well. Chemical partitioning analyses using quantitative indices support a bimodal droplet size distribution model for oil released during subsea dispersant applications in June with 74% of the mass in >1 mm droplets that surfaced near the spill site within a few hours, and 1-8% as <0.13 mm microdroplets that remained below 900 m. Analyses focused on 900-1400 m depth <11 km from the well indicate there was substantial biodegradation of dissolved components, some biodegradation in microdroplets, recirculation of weathered microdroplets into the wellhead area, and marine oil snow settling from above 900 m carrying more-weathered particulate oil into the deep plume.

Oil fate and mass balance for the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Based on oil fate modeling of the Deepwater Horizon spill through August 2010, during June and July 2010, ~89% of the oil surfaced, ~5% entered (by dissolving or as microdroplets) the deep plume (>900 m), and ~6% dissolved and biodegraded between 900 m and 40 m. Subsea dispersant application reduced surfacing oil by ~7% and evaporation of volatiles by ~26%. By July 2011, of the total oil, ~41% evaporated, ~15% was ashore and in nearshore (<10 m) sediments, ~3% was removed by responders, ~38.4% was in the water column (partially degraded; 29% shallower and 9.4% deeper than 40 m), and ~2.6% sedimented in waters >10 m (including 1.5% after August 2010). Volatile and soluble fractions that did not evaporate biodegraded by the end of August 2010, leaving residual oil to disperse and potentially settle. Model estimates were validated by comparison to field observations of floating oil and atmospheric emissions.

Flood risk in past and future: A case study for the Pawtuxet River's record-breaking March 2010 flood event.

In March 2010, a sequence of three major rainfall events in New England (United States) led to a record-breaking flooding event in the Pawtuxet River Watershed with a peak flow discharge of about 500-year return period. After development of hydrological and hydraulic models, a number of factors that played important roles in the impact of this flooding and other extreme events including river structures (reservoirs, historical textile mill dams, and bridges) were investigated. These factors are currently omitted within risk assessments tools such as flood insurance rate maps. Some management strategies that should be considered for future flood risk mitigation were modeled and discussed. Furthermore, to better understand possible future risks in a warmer climate, another extreme flood event was simulated. The synthetic/hypothetical storm (Hurricane Rhody with two landfalls) was created based on the characteristics of the historical hurricanes that severely impacted this region in the past. It was shown that while the first landfall of this hurricane did not lead to significant flood risk, the second landfall could generate more rain and flooding equivalent to a 500-year event. Results and the methodology of this study can be used to better understand and assess future flood risk in similar watersheds.

Application of an Integrated Blowout Model System, OILMAP DEEP, to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) Spill.

OILMAP DEEP, an integrated system of models (pipeline release, blowout plume, dispersant treatment, oil droplet size distribution, and fountain and intrusion), was applied to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill to predict the near field transport and fate of the oil and gas released into the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The model included multiple, time dependent releases from both the kink and riser, with the observed subsurface dispersant treatment, that characterized the DWH spill and response. The blowout model predictions are in good agreement with the available observations for plume trapping height and the major characteristics of the intrusion layer. Predictions of the droplet size distribution are in good agreement with the limited in situ Holocam observations. Model predictions of the percentage of oil retained in the intrusion layer are consistent with independent estimates based on field observations.

An algorithm for modeling entrainment and naturally and chemically dispersed oil droplet size distribution under surface breaking wave conditions.

A surface oil entrainment model and droplet size model have been developed to estimate the flux of oil under surface breaking waves. Both equations are expressed in dimensionless Weber number (We) and Ohnesorge number (Oh, which explicitly accounts for the oil viscosity, density, and oil-water interfacial tension). Data from controlled lab studies, large-scale wave tank tests, and field observations have been used to calibrate the constants of the two independent equations. Predictions using the new algorithm compared well with the observed amount of oil removed from the surface and the sizes of the oil droplets entrained in the water column. Simulations with the new algorithm, implemented in a comprehensive spill model, show that entrainment rates increase more rapidly with wind speed than previously predicted based on the existing Delvigne and Sweeney's (1988) model, and a quasi-stable droplet size distribution (d<~50µm) is developed in the near surface water.

State of the art review and future directions in oil spill modeling.

A review of the state of the art in oil spill modeling, focused on the period from 2000 to present is provided. The review begins with an overview of the current structure of spill models and some lessons learned from model development and application and then provides guiding principles that govern the development of the current generation of spill models. A review of the basic structure of spill models, and new developments in specific transport and fate processes; including surface and subsurface transport, spreading, evaporation, dissolution, entrainment and oil droplet size distributions, emulsification, degradation, and sediment oil interaction are presented. The paper concludes with thoughts on future directions in the field with a primary focus on advancements in handling interactions between Lagrangian elements.

Development of a unified oil droplet size distribution model with application to surface breaking waves and subsea blowout releases considering dispersant effects.

An oil droplet size model was developed for a variety of turbulent conditions based on non-dimensional analysis of disruptive and restorative forces, which is applicable to oil droplet formation under both surface breaking-wave and subsurface-blowout conditions, with or without dispersant application. This new model was calibrated and successfully validated with droplet size data obtained from controlled laboratory studies of dispersant-treated and non-treated oil in subsea dispersant tank tests and field surveys, including the Deep Spill experimental release and the Deepwater Horizon blowout oil spill. This model is an advancement over prior models, as it explicitly addresses the effects of the dispersed phase viscosity, resulting from dispersant application and constrains the maximum stable droplet size based on Rayleigh-Taylor instability that is invoked for a release from a large aperture.

An adaptive framework for selecting environmental monitoring protocols to support ocean renewable energy development.

Offshore renewable energy developments (OREDs) are projected to become common in the United States over the next two decades. There are both a need and an opportunity to guide efforts to identify and track impacts to the marine ecosystem resulting from these installations. A monitoring framework and standardized protocols that can be applied to multiple types of ORED would streamline scientific study, management, and permitting at these sites. We propose an adaptive and reactive framework based on indicators of the likely changes to the marine ecosystem due to ORED. We developed decision trees to identify suites of impacts at two scales (demonstration and commercial) depending on energy (wind, tidal, and wave), structure (e.g., turbine), and foundation type (e.g., monopile). Impacts were categorized by ecosystem component (benthic habitat and resources, fish and fisheries, avian species, marine mammals, and sea turtles) and monitoring objectives were developed for each. We present a case study at a commercial-scale wind farm and develop a monitoring plan for this development that addresses both local and national environmental concerns. In addition, framework has provided a starting point for identifying global research needs and objectives for understanding of the potential effects of ORED on the marine environment.

An LNG release, transport, and fate model system for marine spills.

LNGMAP, a fully integrated, geographic information based modular system, has been developed to predict the fate and transport of marine spills of LNG. The model is organized as a discrete set of linked algorithms that represent the processes (time dependent release rate, spreading, transport on the water surface, evaporation from the water surface, transport and dispersion in the atmosphere, and, if ignited, burning and associated radiated heat fields) affecting LNG once it is released into the environment. A particle-based approach is employed in which discrete masses of LNG released from the source are modeled as individual masses of LNG or spillets. The model is designed to predict the gas mass balance as a function of time and to display the spatial and temporal evolution of the gas (and radiated energy field). LNGMAP has been validated by comparisons to predictions of models developed by ABS Consulting and Sandia for time dependent point releases from a draining tank, with and without burning. Simulations were in excellent agreement with those performed by ABS Consulting and consistent with Sandia's steady state results. To illustrate the model predictive capability for realistic emergency scenarios, simulations were performed for a tanker entering Block Island Sound. Three hypothetical cases were studied: the first assumes the vessel continues on course after the spill starts, the second that the vessel stops as soon as practical after the release begins (3 min), and the third that the vessel grounds at the closest site practical. The model shows that the areas of the surface pool and the incident thermal radiation field (with burning) are minimized and dispersed vapor cloud area (without burning) maximized if the vessel continues on course. For this case the surface pool area, with burning, is substantially smaller than for the without burning case because of the higher mass loss rate from the surface pool due to burning. Since the vessel speed substantially exceeds the spill spreading rate, both the thermal radiation fields and surface pool trail the vessel. The relative directions and speeds of the wind and vessel movement govern the orientation of the dispersed plume. If the vessel stops, the areas of the surface pool and incident radiation field (with burning) are maximized and the dispersed cloud area (without burning) minimized. The longer the delay in stopping the vessel, the smaller the peak values are for the pool area and the size of the thermal radiation field. Once the vessel stops, the spill pool is adjacent to the vessel and moving down current. The thermal radiation field is oriented similarly. These results may be particularly useful in contingency planning for underway vessels.