Water availability and extreme events under climate change scenarios in an experimental watershed of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest.

Climate change has diversified negative implications on environmental sustainability and water availability. Assessing the impacts of climate change is crucial to enhance resilience and future preparedness particularly at a watershed scale. Therefore, the goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on the water balance components and extreme events in Piabanha watershed in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. In this study, extreme climate change scenarios were developed using a wide array of global climate models acquired from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Reports (AR6). Two extreme climate change scenarios, DryHot and WetCool, were integrated into the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model to evaluate their impacts on the hydrological dynamics in the watershed. The baseline SWAT model was first developed and evaluated using different model performance evaluation metrics such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe (NSC), and Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient (KGE). The model results illustrated an excellent model performance with metric values reaching 0.89 and 0.64 for monthly and daily time steps respectively in the calibration (2008 to 2017) and validation (2018 to 2023) periods. The findings of future climate change impacts assessment underscored an increase in temperature and shifts in precipitation patterns. In terms of streamflow, high-flow events may experience a 47.3 % increase, while low-flows could see an 76.6 % reduction. In the DryHot scenario, annual precipitation declines from 1657 to 1420 mm, with evapotranspiration reaching 54 % of precipitation, marking a 9 % rise compared to the baseline. Such changes could induce water stress in plants and lead to modifications on structural attributes of the ecosystem recognized as the Atlantic rainforest. This study established boundaries concerning the effects of climate change and highlighted the need for proactive adaptation strategies and mitigation measures to minimize the potential adverse impacts in the study watershed.

Evaluating the effects of DEM and soil data resolution on streamflow and sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile basin.

While the availability of "big data" on biophysical parameters through citizen science and/or from public/private sources is expected to help in addressing data scarcity issues, there is little understanding of whether and/or how such data will improve watershed simulations. This research aimed to evaluate whether improvements in resolutions of Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and soil data will enhance streamflow and sediment yield simulations and thereby improve soil and water management decisions. The study was conducted in two different-sized watersheds (Anjeni and Gilgel Abay with ~ 1 km2 and ~ 1655 km2 area, respectively) in the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Effects of DEM and soil data resolutions on streamflow and sediment yield were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The results showed that the effect of DEM and soil data resolution on streamflow and sediment yield simulation was scale dependent finer resolution DEM and soil datasets improved streamflow and sediment yield simulations in the smaller Anjeni watershed, whereas DEM resolution had no effect in the bigger Gilgel Abay watershed. Small watersheds are often used to understand watershed processes, and thus the use of finer-resolution spatial data for watershed simulations could result in better results. Findings from the smaller Anjeni watershed suggested that the combined use of finer resolution DEM and soil data could potentially improve sediment yield simulations although the lack of observed sediment yield data did not allow verification of this at the larger Gilgel Abay watershed.

Assessment of the sustainability of groundwater utilization and crop production under optimized irrigation strategies in the North China Plain under future climate change.

Over-exploitation of groundwater due to intensive irrigation and anticipated climate change pose severe threats to the water and food security worldwide, particularly in the North China Plain (NCP). Limited irrigation has been recognized as an effective way to improve crop water productivity and slow the rapid decline of groundwater levels. Whether optimized limited irrigation strategies could achieve a balance between groundwater pumping and grain production in the NCP under future climate change deserves further study. In this study, an improved Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate climate change impacts on shallow groundwater levels and crop production under limited irrigation strategies to suggest optimal irrigation management practices under future climate conditions in the NCP. The simulations of eleven limited irrigation strategies for winter wheat with targeted irrigations at different growth stages and with irrigated or rainfed summer maize were compared with future business-as-usual management. Climate change impacts showed that mean wheat (maize) yield under adequate irrigation was expected to increase by 13.2% (4.9%) during the middle time period (2041-2070) and by 11.2% (4.6%) during the late time period (2071-2100) under three SSPs compared to the historical period (1971-2000). Mean decline rate of shallow groundwater level slowed by approximately 1 m a-1 during the entire future period (2041-2100) under three SSPs with a greater reduction for SSP5-8.5. The average contribution rate of future climate toward the balance of shallow groundwater pumping and replenishment was 62.9%. Based on the simulated crop yields and decline rate of shallow groundwater level under the future climate, the most appropriate limited irrigation was achieved by applying irrigation during the jointing stage of wheat with rainfed maize, which could achieve the groundwater recovery and sustainable food production.

Assessing the effectiveness of potential best management practices for science-informed decision support at the watershed scale: The case of the Mar Menor coastal lagoon, Spain.

Coastal lagoons are ecosystems of high environmental importance but are quite vulnerable to human activities. The continuous inflow of pollutant loads can trigger negative impacts on the ecological status of these water bodies, which is contrary to the European Green Deal. One example is the Mar Menor coastal lagoon in Spain, which has experienced significant environmental degradation in recent years due to excessive external nutrient input, especially from non-point source (NPS) pollution. Mar Menor is one of the largest coastal lagoons of the Mediterranean region and a site of great ecological and socio-economic value. In this study, the highly anthropogenic and complex watershed of Mar Menor, known as Campo de Cartagena (1244 km2), was modelled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to analyse potential options for recovery of this unique system. The model was used to simulate several best management practices (BMP) proposed by recent Mar Menor regulations, such as vegetative filter strips, shoreline buffers, contour farming, removal of illegal agriculture, crop rotation management, waterway vegetation restoration, fertiliser management and greenhouse rainwater harvesting. Sixteen scenarios of individual and combined BMPs were analysed in this study. We found that, as individual measures, vegetative filter strips and contour farming were most effective in nutrient reduction: approximately 30 % for total nitrogen (TN) and 40 % for total phosphorus (TP). Moreover, waterway vegetation restoration showed the highest sediment (S) reduction at approximately 20 %. However, the combination of BMPs demonstrated clear synergistic effects, reducing S export by 38 %, TN by 67 %, and TP by 75 %. Selecting the most appropriate BMPs to be implemented at a watershed scale requires a holistic approach considering effectiveness in reducing NPS pollution loads and BMP implementation costs. Thus, we have demonstrated a way forward for enabling science-informed decision-making when choosing strategies to control NPS contamination at the watershed scale.

Assessing impacts of global climate change on water and food security in the black soil region of Northeast China using an improved SWAT-CO2 model.

Future climate change may have substantial impacts on both water resources and food security in China's black soil region. The Liao River Basin (LRB; 220,000 km2) is representative of the main black soil area, making it ideal for studying climate change effects on black soil. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was first initialized for the LRB. Actual evapotranspiration (ETa) values calculated using the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model and city-level corn (Zea mays L.) yields were then used to calibrate the SWAT model. Finally, the SWAT model was modified to accept dynamic CO2 input and output crop transpiration, soil evaporation, and canopy interception separately to explore the impacts of future climate change on ET related variables and crop water productivity (CWP) in the LRB. Simulation scenario design included 22 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for two 30-year periods of 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The predicted results showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in air temperatures and precipitation in the LRB. In contrast, solar radiation decreased significantly and was most reduced for the SSP3-7.0 scenario. Reference evapotranspiration (ETo), ETa, and soil evaporation significantly increased in future scenarios, while canopy interception and crop transpiration showed significant reductions, particularly under the 2071-2100 SSP5-8.5 scenario. Overall, corn yield elevated considerably (P < 0.05) with the largest increase for the SSP5-8.5 scenario during 2071-2100. However, the SSP3-7.0 scenario indicated a significant decline in yield. Future changes in CWP were similar to those for corn yield, with significant increases in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. These findings suggested future climate change may have a positive impact on corn production in the black soil region of the LRB.

Holistic Sustainability Assessment of Riparian Buffer Designs: Evaluation of Alternative Buffer Policy Scenarios Integrating Stream Water Quality and Costs.

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) have been shown to be effective best management practices (BMPs) in controlling non-point source pollutants in waterbodies. However, the holistic sustainability assessment of individual RBZ designs is lacking. We present a methodology for evaluating the holistic sustainability of RBZ policy scenarios by integrating environmental and economic indicators simulated in three watersheds in the southeastern USA. We developed three unique sets of 40, 32, and 48 RBZ policy scenarios as decision management objectives (DMOs), respectively, in Back Creek, Sycamore Creek, and Greens Mill Run watersheds (Virginia and North Carolina) by combining the RBZ-widths with vegetation types (grass, urban, naturalized, wildlife, three-zone forest, and two-zone forest). We adapted the RBZ-hydrologic and water quality system assessment data of instream water quality parameters (dissolved oxygen, total phosphorus, total nitrogen, total suspended solids-sediment and biochemical oxygen demand) as environmental indicators, recently published by U.S. EPA. We calculated 20-year net present value costs as economic indicators using the RBZ's establishment, maintenance, and opportunity costs data published by the Natural Resources Conservation Service. The mean normalized net present value costs varied by DMOs ranging from 4% (grass RBZ-1.9 m) to 500% (wildlife RBZ-91.4 m) across all watersheds, due primarily to the width and the opportunity costs. The mean normalized environmental indicators varied by watersheds, with the largest change in total nitrogen due to urban RBZs in Back Creek (60-95%), Sycamore Creek (37-91%), and Greens Mill (52-93%). The holistic sustainability assessments revealed the least to most sustainable DMOs for each watershed, from least sustainable wildlife RBZ (score of 0.54), three-zone forest RBZ (0.32), and three-zone forest RBZ (0.62), respectively, for Back Creek, Sycamore Creek, and Greens Mill, to most sustainable urban RBZ (1.00) for all watersheds.

Determination of accurate baseline representation for three Central Iowa watersheds within a HAWQS-based SWAT analyses.

Improving food systems to address food insecurity and minimize environmental impacts is still a challenge in the 21st century. Ecohydrological models are a key tool for accurate system representation and impact measurement. We used a multi-phase testing approach to represent baseline hydrologic conditions across three agricultural basins that drain parts of north central and central Iowa, U.S.: the Des Moines River Basin (DMRB), the South Skunk River Basin (SSRB), and the North Skunk River Basin (NSRB). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ecohydrological model was applied using a framework consisting of the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) online platform, 40 streamflow gauges, the alternative runoff curve number method, additional tile drainage and fertilizer application. In addition, ten SWAT baselines were created to analyze both the HAWQS parameters (baseline 1) and nine alternative baseline configurations (considering the framework). Most of the models achieved acceptable statistical replication of measured (close to the outlet) streamflows, with Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) values ranging up to 0.80 for baseline 9 in the DMRB and SSRB, and 0.78 for baseline 7 in the NSRB. However, water balance and other hydrologic indicators revealed that careful selection of management data and other inputs are essential for obtaining the most accurate representation of baseline conditions for the simulated stream systems. Using cumulative distribution curves as a criterion, baselines 7 to 10 showed the best fit for the SSRB and NSRB, but none of the baselines accurately represented 20% of low flows for the DMRB. Analysis of snowmelt and growing season periods showed that baselines 3 and 4 resulted in poor simulations across all three basins using four common statistical measures (NS, KGE, Pbias, and R2), and that baseline 9 was characterized by the most satisfactory statistical results, followed by baselines 5, 7 and 1.

Sensitivity of Riparian Buffer Designs to Climate Change-Nutrient and Sediment Loading to Streams: A Case Study in the Albemarle-Pamlico River Basins (USA) Using HAWQS.

Riparian buffer zones (RBZs) provide multiple benefits to watershed ecosystems. We aimed to conduct an extensive sensitivity analysis of the RBZ designs to climate change nutrient and sediment loadings to streams. We designed 135 simulation scenarios starting with the six baselines RBZs (grass, urban, two-zone forest, three-zone forest, wildlife, and naturalized) in three 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code watersheds within the Albemarle-Pamlico river basin (USA). Using the hydrologic and water quality system (HAWQS), we assessed the sensitivity of the designs to five water quality indicator (WQI) parameters: dissolved oxygen (DO), total phosphorous (TP), total nitrogen (TN), sediment (SD), and biochemical oxygen demand (BD). To understand the climate mitigation potential of RBZs, we identified a subset of future climate change projection models of air temperature and precipitation using EPA's Locating and Selecting Scenarios Online tool. Analyses revealed optimal RBZ designs for the three watersheds. In terms of watershed ecosystem services sustainability, the optimal Urban RBZ in contemporary climate (1983-2018) reduced SD from 61-96%, TN from 34-55%, TP from 9-48%, and BD from 53-99%, and raised DO from 4-10% with respect to No-RBZ in the three watersheds. The late century's (2070-2099) extreme mean annual climate changes significantly increased the projected SD and BD; however, the addition of urban RBZs was projected to offset the climate change reducing SD from 28-94% and BD from 69-93% in the watersheds. All other types of RBZs are also projected to fully mitigate the climate change impacts on WQI parameters except three-zone RBZ.

Evaluating runoff and sediment responses to soil and water conservation practices by employing alternative modeling approaches.

Evaluating runoff and sediment responses to human activities and climate variability is crucial for prioritizing erosion hotspots and implementing appropriate land management interventions. This study evaluated the separate and combined impacts of soil and water conservation (SWC) practices, land use/land cover, and climate variability, on runoff and sediment yield (SY) using two approaches in drought-prone watersheds of northwestern Ethiopia. In the first (paired watershed) approach, runoff and SY outputs of Kecha (treated) and Laguna (untreated) watersheds were compared. In the second approach, we compared data before and after the implementation of SWC practices in the Kecha watershed. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was adopted for both untreated and treated watersheds and used to evaluate runoff and SY responses in the two approaches. Paired watershed approach results revealed that the SWC practices reduced the surface runoff in Kecha by about 28-36% and SY by about 51-68% as compared to those in Laguna. Similarly, compared with the baseline data at Kecha, the SWC practices reduced the surface runoff and SY by about 40% and 43%, respectively, corresponding to about 65-78% of the total changes brought by changes in land use/land cover and climate variability. Hence, combining the two approaches helped reasonably estimate the reduction of surface runoff and SY due to SWC practices by about 28-40% and about 43-68%, respectively, implying that SWC practices had a considerably greater effect on SY than surface runoff. The study further revealed that the untreated Laguna watershed, where >86% of the total area is categorized as the very high soil erosion severity class, should be an immediate conservation priority. The findings of this study will be vital to devise future alternative land management scenarios in these watersheds and similar agro-ecological areas elsewhere.

Mapping Land Use Land Cover Change in the Lower Mekong Basin from 1997 to 2010.

The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) is biologically diverse, economically important, and home to about 65 million people. The region has undergone extensive environmental changes since the 1990s due to such factors as agricultural expansion and intensification, deforestation, more river damming, increased urbanization, growing human populations, expansion of industrial forest plantations, plus frequent natural disasters from flooding and drought. The Mekong river is also heavily used for human transportation, fishing, drinking water, and irrigation. This paper discusses use of pre-existing LULC maps from 1997 and 2010 to derive a LMB regional LULC change map for 9 classes per date using GIS overlay techniques. The change map was derived to aid SWAT hydrologic modeling applications in the LMB, given the 2010 map is currently used in multiple LMB SWAT models, whereas the 1997 map was previously used. The 2010 LULC map was constructed from Landsat and MODIS satellite data, while the 1997 map was from before the MODIS era and therefore based on available Landsat data. The 1997-2010 LULC change map showed multiple trends. Permanent agriculture had expanded in certain sub-basins into previously forested areas. Some agricultural areas were converted to industrial forest plantations. Extensive forest changes also occurred in some locations, such as areas changed to shifting cultivation or permanent crops. Also, the 1997 map under classified some urban areas, whereas the 2010 LULC map showed improved identification of such areas. LULC map accuracy were assessed for 213 randomly sampled locations. The 1997 and 2010 LULC maps showed high overall agreements with reference data exceeding 87%. The LULC change map yielded a moderately high level of overall agreement (78%) that improved to ~83% once LULC classification scheme specificity was reduced (forests and agriculture were each mapped as singular classes). The change map regionally showed a 4% decrease in agriculture and a 4 % increase in deciduous and evergreen forests combined, though deforestation hot spot areas also were evident. The project yielded LULC map data sets that are now available for aiding additional studies that assess LMB LULC change and the impacts such change may pose to water, agriculture, forestry, and disaster management efforts. More work is needed to map, quantify and assess LULC change since 2010 and to further update the 2010 LULC map currently used in the LMB SWAT models.

Analysis of alternative climate datasets and evapotranspiration methods for the Upper Mississippi River Basin using SWAT within HAWQS.

This study reports the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within the Hydrologic and Water Quality System (HAWQS) on-line platform, for the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The UMRB is an important ecosystem located in the north central U.S. that is experiencing a range of ecological stresses. Specifically, testing of SWAT was performed for: (1) Hargreaves (HG) and Penman-Monteith (PM) PET methods, and (2) Livneh, National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) climate datasets. The Livneh-PM combination resulted in the highest average annual water yield of 380.6 mm versus the lowest estimated water yield of 193.9 mm for the Livneh-HG combination, in response to 23-year uncalibrated simulations. Higher annual ET and PET values were predicted with HG method versus the PM method for all three weather datasets in response to the uncalibrated simulations, due primarily to higher HG-based estimates during the growing season. Based on these results, it was found that the HG method is the preferred PET option for the UMRB. Initial calibration of SWAT was performed using the Livneh data and HG method for three Mississippi River main stem gauge sites, which was followed by spatial validation at 10 other gauge sites located within the UMRB stream network. Overall satisfactory results were found for the calibration and validation gauge sites, with the majority of R2 values ranging between 0.61 and 0.82, Nash-Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) values ranging between 0.50 and 0.79, and Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) values ranging between 0.61 and 0.84. The results of an additional experimental suite of six scenarios, which represented different combinations of climate data sets and calibrated parameters, revealed that suggested statistical criteria were again satisfied by the different scenario combinations. Overall, the PRISM data exhibited the strongest reliability for the UMRB.

Web-based decision support system tools: The Soil and Water Assessment Tool Online visualization and analyses (SWATOnline) and NASA earth observation data downloading and reformatting tool (NASAaccess).

The current influx of climate related information required scientists to communicate their findings to decision makers in governments, disaster preparedness organizations, and the general public. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a powerful modelling tool that allows scientists to simulate many of the physical processes involved in the water cycle. This article presents the design, methods and development efforts to overcome some of the limitations of the previously developed SWAT visualization software programs by creating a set of modular web applications that can be duplicated, customized, and run. Moreover, this article features a web application development tool for climate data retrieval. The NASAaccess fetches, extracts and reformats climate data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration servers and outputs data compatible with hydrological models. This work has the potential to increase the SWAT's model impact on non-technically trained stakeholders and decision makers charged with water and climate management.

Ground and satellite based observation datasets for the Lower Mekong River Basin.

In 'Satellite observations and modeling to understand the Lower Mekong River Basin streamflow variability' [1] hydrological fluxes, meteorological variables, land cover land use maps, and soil characteristics and parameters data were compiled and processed for the Lower Mekong River Basin. In this work, daily streamflow time series data at nine gauges located at five different countries in the Mekong region (Thailand, Laos People׳s Democratic Republic (PDR), Myanmar, Cambodia, and Viet Nam) is presented. Satellite-based daily precipitation and air temperature (minimum & maximum) data is processed and provided over the entire basin as part of the dataset provided in this work. Moreover, land cover land use raster data that contains 18 classes that cover agriculture, urban, range and forests land cover land use classes for the basin is offered. In addition, a soil data that contains physical and chemical characteristics needed by physically based hydrological models to simulate the cycling of water and air is also provided.

Satellite observations and modeling to understand the Lower Mekong River basin streamflow variability.

In this work, we have used the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to examine streamflow variability of the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) associated with changes in the Upper Mekong River Basin (UMRB) inflows. Two hypothetical experiments were formulated and evaluated for the LMRB, where we conducted runoff simulations with multiple inflow changes that include upstream runoff yield increase and decrease scenarios. Streamflow variability of the LMRB was quantified by two streamflow metrics that explain flow variability and predictability, and high flow disturbance. The model experiments were performed for the Lower Mekong River Basin with identical climate, soil, and other watershed characteristics data. Remote sensing precipitation (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, TRMM, and Global Precipitation Measurement mission, GPM), meteorological data as well as spatial data that include a digital elevation model, newly developed soil information (Harmonized World Soil Database, HWSD), and land use and land cover were processed as input to the LMRB model simulations. Observed daily streamflow data along the Lower Mekong River from Chiang Sean, Thailand to Kratie, Cambodia were used for calibration and validation. Our work results suggest that the Lower Mekong River streamflow is highly variable and has a low predictability (Colwell index of about 32%). We found that releasing more water from upstream Mekong during rainfall months by 30% would result in a reduction in the Lower Mekong streamflow predictability by about 21%. This reduction in predictability is mainly attributed to a decrease in the Contingency index. Our work shows that the ability to predict floods/droughts at the Lower Mekong River would be reduced if there is any anticipated change (i.e., increase/decrease) from UMRB releases. Our results also show that releasing more flows from the upstream Mekong would also affect flood duration and the frequency of flood occurrences downstream. The results of this work thus help to quantify the sensitivity of streamflow variability at the Lower Mekong River Basin to upstream anthropogenic changes.

Improved Hydrological Decision Support System for the Lower Mekong River Basin Using Satellite-Based Earth Observations.

Multiple satellite-based earth observations and traditional station data along with the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model were employed to enhance the Lower Mekong River Basin region's hydrological decision support system. A nearest neighbor approximation methodology was introduced to fill the Integrated Multi-satellite Retrieval for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (IMERG) grid points from 2001 to 2014, together with the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data points for continuous precipitation forcing for our hydrological decision support system. A software tool to access and format satellite-based earth observation systems of precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperatures was developed and is presented. Our results suggest that the model-simulated streamflow utilizing TRMM and IMERG forcing data was able to capture the variability of the observed streamflow patterns in the Lower Mekong better than model-simulated streamflow with in-situ precipitation station data. We also present satellite-based and in-situ precipitation adjustment maps that can serve to correct precipitation data for the Lower Mekong region for use in other applications. The inconsistency, scarcity, poor spatial representation, difficult access and incompleteness of the available in-situ precipitation data for the Mekong region make it imperative to adopt satellite-based earth observations to pursue hydrologic modeling.

Positive Influence of Behavior Change Communication on Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices for Visceral Leishmaniasis/Kala-azar in India.

BACKGROUND: Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is endemic to 54 districts in 4 states of India. Poor awareness of the disease and inappropriate health-seeking behavior are major challenges to eliminating the disease. Between February 2016 and March 2017, we implemented a behavior change communication (BCC) intervention in 33 districts of Bihar, 4 districts of Jharkhand, and 3 districts of West Bengal using a mix of channels, including group and interpersonal communication, to improve knowledge, attitudes, and practices of communities, frontline health workers, and opinion leaders. We conducted an impact assessment in October 2016, after the second indoor residual spraying (IRS) round, in Bihar and Jharkhand to evaluate the effect of the BCC intervention. METHODS: Villages in 10 districts of Bihar and 4 districts in Jharkhand were selected for inclusion in the assessment. Selected villages were categorized as either intervention or control based on where project activities were conducted. Households were randomly selected proportional to caste composition, and interviewers surveyed the head of the household on whether the house was sprayed during the last IRS round and on knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to VL. We interviewed 700 households in intervention villages and 350 households in control villages and conducted correlation analysis to explore the association between IRS refusal and socioeconomic variables, and tested for association between IRS refusal and exposure to BCC activities. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated. RESULTS: We reached an estimated 3.3 million contacts in Bihar and Jharkhand through the intervention's BCC activities. IRS refusal rates were significantly lower in intervention households than control households (mean=7.95% vs. 24.45%, respectively; OR, 0.27; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.11 to 0.62; P<.001). Households in intervention villages were more aware than those in control villages that VL is spread by sand flies (68.4% vs. 7.4%, respectively; P<.001) and of IRS as an effective control measure (82.3% vs. 41.7%, respectively; P<.001). A greater percentage of households in intervention villages than control villages indicated they would encourage a patient to go to primary health centers for diagnosis and treatment of VL (77.0% vs. 39.4%, respectively) and to encourage others to accept IRS (78.6% vs. 44.6%, respectively; P<.001). CONCLUSION: Households that were exposed to community-based BCC activities largely using group and interpersonal communication had better knowledge, attitudes, and practices related to VL, including acceptance of IRS as a preventive measure, than households not exposed. BCC activities are thus an important component of VL elimination strategies.

Integrating multimedia models to assess nitrogen losses from the Mississippi River basin to the Gulf of Mexico.

This study describes and implements an integrated, multimedia, process-based system-level approach to estimating nitrogen (N) fate and transport in large river basins. The modeling system includes the following components: (1) Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ),(2) Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), (3) Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC), and (4) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The previously developed Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C), an advanced user interface, integrated EPIC with the WRF model and CMAQ. The FEST-C system, driven by process-based WRF weather simulations, includes atmospheric N additions to agricultural cropland and agricultural cropland contributions to ammonia emissions. This study focuses on integrating the watershed hydrology and water quality model with FEST-C system so that a full multimedia assessment on water quality in large river basins to address impacts of fertilization, meteorology, and atmospheric N deposition on water quality can be achieved. Objectives of this paper are to describe how to expand the previous effort by integrating the SWAT model with the FEST-C (CMAQ/WRF/EPIC) modeling system, as well as to demonstrate application of the Integrated Modeling System (IMS) to the Mississippi River basin (MRB) to simulate streamflow and dissolved N loadings to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). IMS simulation results generally agree with US Geological Survey (USGS) observations/estimations; the annual simulated streamflow is 218.9 mm and USGS observation is 211.1 mm and the annual simulated dissolved N is 2.1 kg ha-1 and the USGS estimation is 2.8 kg ha-1. Integrating SWAT with the CMAQ/WRF/EPIC modeling system allows for its use within large river basins without losing EPIC's more detailed biogeochemistry processes, which will strengthen the assessment of impacts of future climate scenarios, regulatory and voluntary programs for N oxide air emissions, and land use and land management on N transport and transformation in large river basins.

Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization approach provide a capable method for predicting the aquatic exposure required to support pesticide regulatory decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:358-368. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC).

Evaluation of bioenergy crop growth and the impacts of bioenergy crops on streamflow, tile drain flow and nutrient losses in an extensively tile-drained watershed using SWAT.

Large quantities of biofuel production are expected from bioenergy crops at a national scale to meet US biofuel goals. It is important to study biomass production of bioenergy crops and the impacts of these crops on water quantity and quality to identify environment-friendly and productive biofeedstock systems. SWAT2012 with a new tile drainage routine and improved perennial grass and tree growth simulation was used to model long-term annual biomass yields, streamflow, tile flow, sediment load, and nutrient losses under various bioenergy scenarios in an extensively agricultural watershed in the Midwestern US. Simulated results from bioenergy crop scenarios were compared with those from the baseline. The results showed that simulated annual crop yields were similar to observed county level values for corn and soybeans, and were reasonable for Miscanthus, switchgrass and hybrid poplar. Removal of 38% of corn stover (3.74Mg/ha/yr) with Miscanthus production on highly erodible areas and marginal land (17.49Mg/ha/yr) provided the highest biofeedstock production (279,000Mg/yr). Streamflow, tile flow, erosion and nutrient losses were reduced under bioenergy crop scenarios of bioenergy crops on highly erodible areas and marginal land. Corn stover removal did not result in significant water quality changes. The increase in sediment and nutrient losses under corn stover removal could be offset with the combination of other bioenergy crops. Potential areas for bioenergy crop production when meeting the criteria above were small (10.88km2), thus the ability to produce biomass and improve water quality was not substantial. The study showed that corn stover removal with bioenergy crops both on highly erodible areas and marginal land could provide more biofuel production relative to the baseline, and was beneficial to water quality at the watershed scale, providing guidance for further research on evaluation of bioenergy crop scenarios in a typical extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwestern U.S.

Evaluation of new farming technologies in Ethiopia using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS).

This study investigates multi-dimensional impacts of adopting new technology in agriculture at the farm/village and watershed scale in sub-Saharan Africa using the Integrated Decision Support System (IDSS). Application of IDSS as an integrated modeling tool helps solve complex issues in agricultural systems by simultaneously assessing production, environmental, economic, and nutritional consequences of adopting agricultural technologies for sustainable increases in food production and use of scarce natural resources. The IDSS approach was applied to the Amhara region of Ethiopia, where the scarcity of resources and agro-environmental consequences are critical to agricultural productivity of small farm, to analyze the impacts of alternative agricultural technology interventions. Results show significant improvements in family income and nutrition, achieved through the adoption of irrigation technologies, proper use of fertilizer, and improved seed varieties while preserving environmental indicators in terms of soil erosion and sediment loadings. These pilot studies demonstrate the usefulness of the IDSS approach as a tool that can be used to predict and evaluate the economic and environmental consequences of adopting new agricultural technologies that aim to improve the livelihoods of subsistence farmers.