What drives mortality among HIV patients in a conflict setting? A prospective cohort study in the Central African Republic.

BACKGROUND: Provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) during conflict settings is rarely attempted and little is known about the expected patterns of mortality. The Central African Republic (CAR) continues to have a low coverage of ART despite an estimated 110,000 people living with HIV and 5000 AIDS-related deaths in 2018. We present results from a cohort in Zemio, Haut-Mboumou prefecture. This region had the highest prevalence of HIV nationally (14.8% in a 2010 survey), and was subject to repeated attacks by armed groups on civilians during the observed period. METHODS: Conflict from armed groups can impact cohort mortality rates i) directly if HIV patients are victims of armed conflict, or ii) indirectly if population displacement or fear of movement reduces access to ART. Using monthly counts of civilian deaths, injuries and abductions, we estimated the impact of the conflict on patient mortality. We also determined patient-level risk factors for mortality and how the risk of mortality varies with time spent in the cohort. Model-fitting was performed in a Bayesian framework, using logistic regression with terms accounting for temporal autocorrelation. RESULTS: Patients were recruited and observed in the HIV treatment program from October 2011 to May 2017. Overall 1631 patients were enrolled and 1628 were included in the analysis giving 48,430 person-months at risk and 145 deaths. The crude mortality rate after 12 months was 0.92 (95% CI 0.90, 0.93). Our model showed that patient mortality did not increase during periods of heightened conflict; the odds ratios (OR) 95% credible interval (CrI) for i) civilian fatalities and injuries, and ii) civilian abductions on patient mortality both spanned unity. The risk of mortality for individual patients was highest in the second month after entering the cohort, and declined seven-fold over the first 12 months. Male sex was associated with a higher mortality (odds ratio 1.70 [95% CrI 1.20, 2.33]) along with the severity of opportunistic infections (OIs) at baseline (OR 2.52; 95% CrI 2.01, 3.23 for stage 2 OIs compared with stage 1). CONCLUSIONS: Our results show that chronic conflict did not appear to adversely affect rates of mortality in this cohort, and that mortality was driven predominantly by patient-specific risk factors. The risk of mortality and recovery of CD4 T-cell counts observed in this conflict setting are comparable to those in stable resource poor settings, suggesting that conflict should not be a barrier in access to ART.

Delivering HIV care in challenging operating environments: the MSF experience towards differentiated models of care for settings with multiple basic health care needs.

INTRODUCTION: Countries in the West and Central African regions struggle to offer quality HIV care at scale, despite HIV prevalence being relatively low. In these challenging operating environments, basic health care needs are multiple, systems are highly fragile and conflict disrupts health care. Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has been working to integrate HIV care in basic health services in such settings since 2000. We review the implementation of differentiated HIV care and treatment approaches in MSF-supported programmes in South Sudan (RoSS), Central African Republic (CAR) and Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). METHODS: A descriptive analysis from CAR, DRC and RoSS programmes reviewing methodology and strategies of HIV care integration between 2010 and 2015 was performed. We describe HIV care models integrated within the provision of general health care and highlight best practices and challenges. RESULTS: Services included provision of general health care, with out-patient care (range between countries 43,343 and 287,163 consultations/year in 2015) and in-patient care (range 1076-16,595 in 2015). By the end of 2015 antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiations reached 12-255 patients/year. A total of 1101 and 1053 patients were on ART in CAR and DRC, respectively. In RoSS 186 patients were on ART when conflict recommenced late in 2013. While ART initiation and monitoring were mostly clinically driven in the early phase of the programmes, DRC implemented CD4 monitoring and progressively HIV viral load (VL) monitoring during study period. Attacks to health care facilities in CAR and RoSS disrupted service provision temporarily. Programmatic challenges include: competing health priorities influencing HIV care and need to integrate within general health services. Differentiated care approaches that support continuity of care in these programmes include simplification of medical protocols, multi-month ART prescriptions, and community strategies such as ART delivery groups, contingency plans and peer support activities. CONCLUSIONS: The principles of differentiated HIV care for high-quality ART delivery can successfully be applied in challenging operating environments. However, success heavily depends on specific adaptations to each setting.

Risk factors for unstructured treatment interruptions and association with survival in low to middle income countries.

BACKGROUND: Antiretroviral therapy (ART) treatment interruptions lead to poor clinical outcomes with unplanned or unstructured TIs (uTIs) likely to be underreported. This study describes; uTIs, their risk factors and association with survival. METHODS: Analysis of ART programmatic data from 11 countries across Asia and Africa between 2003 and 2013 where an uTI was defined as a ≥90-day patient initiated break from ART calculated from the last day the previous ART prescription would have run out until the date of the next ART prescription. Factors predicting uTI were assessed with a conditional risk-set multiple failure time-to-event model to account for repeated events per subject. Association between uTI and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards, with a competing risks extension to test for the influence of lost to follow-up (LTFU). RESULTS: 40,632 patients were included from 11 countries across 33 sites (17 Africa, 16 Asia). Median duration of follow-up was 1.61 years (IQR 0.54-3.31 years), 3386 (8.3 %) patients died, and 3453 (8.5 %) were LTFU. There were 14,817 uTIs, with 10,162 (25 %) patients having more than one uTI. In the adjusted model males were at lower risk of uTI (aHR 0.94, p < 0.01, and age 20-59 was protective compared to <20 years (20-39 years aHR 0.87, p < 0.01; 40-59 years aHR 0.86, p < 0.01). Preserved immune function, as measured by higher CD4 cell count, was associated with a reduced rate of uTI compared to CD4 <200 cells/µL (CD4 200-350 cells/µL aHR 0.89, p < 0.01; CD4 >350 cells/µL aHR 0.87, p < 0.01), whereas advanced clinical disease was associated with increased uTI rate (WHO stage 3 aHR 1.10, p < 0.01; WHO stage 4 aHR 1.21, p < 0.01). There was no relationship between uTI and mortality after adjusting for disease status and considering LTFU as a competing risk. CONCLUSIONS: uTIs were frequent in people in ART programs in low-middle income countries and associated with younger age, female gender and advanced HIV. uTI did not predict survival when loss to follow-up was considered a competing risk. Further evaluation of uTI predictors and interventions to reduce their occurrence is warranted.

Risk factors for mortality during antiretroviral therapy in older populations in resource-limited settings.

INTRODUCTION: An increasing proportion of adult patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings are aged > 50 years. Older populations on ART appear to have heightened risk of death, but little is known about factors influencing mortality in this population. METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational multisite cohort study including all adult patients (≥ 15 years) initiating ART between 2003 and 2013 in programmes supported by Médecins Sans Frontières across 12 countries in Asia, Africa and Europe. Patients were stratified into two age groups, > 50 years and 15 to 50 years. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to explore factors associated with mortality. RESULTS: The study included 41,088 patients: 2591 (6.3%) were aged > 50 years and 38,497 (93.7%) were aged 15 to 50 years. The mortality rate was significantly higher in the age group > 50 years [367 (14.2%) deaths; mortality rate 7.67 deaths per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval, CI: 6.93 to 8.50)] compared to the age group 15 to 50 years [3788 (9.8%) deaths; mortality rate 4.18 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 4.05 to 4.31)], p < 0.0001. Higher CD4 levels at baseline were associated with significantly reduced mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group but this association was not seen in the > 50 age group. WHO Stage 4 conditions were more strongly associated with increased mortality rates in the 15 to 50 age group compared to populations > 50 years. WHO Stage 3 conditions were associated with an increased mortality rate in the 15 to 50 age group but not in the > 50 age group. Programme region did not affect mortality rates in the > 50 age group; however being in an Asian programme was associated with a 36% reduced mortality rate in populations aged 15 to 50 years compared to being in an African programme. There was a higher overall incidence of Stage 3 WHO conditions in people > 50 years (12.8/100 person-years) compared to those 15 to 50 years (8.1/100 person-years) (p < 0.01). The rate of Stage 4 WHO conditions was similar (5.8/100 versus 6.1/100 respectively, p = 0.52). Mortality rates on ART associated with the majority of specific WHO conditions were similar between the 15 to 50 and > 50 age groups. CONCLUSIONS: Older patients on ART in resource-limited settings have increased mortality rates, but compared to younger populations this appears to be less influenced by baseline CD4 count and WHO clinical stage. HIV treatment programmes in resource-limited settings need to consider risk factors associated with mortality on ART in older populations, which may differ to those related to younger adults.

Outcomes of a remote, decentralized health center-based HIV/AIDS antiretroviral program in Zambia, 2003 to 2007.

A cross-sectional study of patients living with HIV/ AIDS treated during 2003 to 2007 in decentralized, rural health centers in Zambia was performed to measure virological outcomes after 12 months of antiretroviral therapy and identify factors associated with virological failure. Data from 228 patients who started antiretroviral therapy >12 months prior were analyzed. In all, 93% received stavudine + lamivudine + nevirapine regimens, and median antiretroviral therapy duration was 23.5 months (interquartile range 20-28). Of the 205 patients tested for viral load, 177 (86%) had viral load <1000 copies/mL. Probability of developing virological failure (viral load >1000 copies/mL) was 8.9% at 24 months and 19.6% at 32 months. Predictors for virological failure were <100% adherence, body mass index <18.5 kg/m(2), and women <40 years old. Of those with virological failure who underwent 3 to 6 months of intensive adherence counseling, 45% obtained virological success. In a remote, resource-limited setting in decentralized health centers, virological and immunological assessments of patients on antiretroviral therapy >12 months showed that positive health outcomes are achievable.