Assessing reproducibility and utility of clustering of patients with type 2 diabetes and established CV disease (SAVOR -TIMI 53 trial).

OBJECTIVE: To assess the reproducibility and clinical utility of clustering-based subtyping of patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and established cardiovascular (CV) disease. METHODS: The cardiovascular outcome trial SAVOR-TIMI 53 (n = 16,492) was used. Analyses focused on T2D patients with established CV disease. Unsupervised machine learning technique called "k-means clustering" was used to divide patients into subtypes. K-means clustering including HbA1c, age of diagnosis, BMI, HOMA2-IR and HOMA2-B was used to assign clusters to the following diabetes subtypes: severe insulin deficient diabetes (SIDD); severe insulin-resistant diabetes (SIRD); mild obesity-related diabetes (MOD); mild age-related diabetes (MARD). We refer these subtypes as "clustering-based diabetes subtypes". A simulation study using randomly generated data was conducted to understand how correlations between the above variables influence the formation of the cluster-based diabetes subtypes. The predictive utility of clustering-based diabetes subtypes for CV events (3-point MACE), renal function reduction (eGFR decrease >30%) and diabetic disease progression (introduction of additional anti-diabetic medication) were compared with conventional risk scores. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated by Cox-proportional hazard models. RESULTS: In the SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial based dataset, the percentage of the clustering-based T2D subtypes were; SIDD (18%), SIRD (17%), MOD (29%), MARD (37%). Using the simulated dataset, the diabetes subtypes could be largely reproduced from a log-normal distribution when including known correlations between variables. The predictive utility of clustering-based diabetic subtypes on CV events, renal function reduction, and diabetic disease progression did not show an advantage compared to conventional risk scores. CONCLUSIONS: The consistent reproduction of four clustering-based T2D subtypes can be explained by the correlations between the variables used for clustering. Subtypes of T2D based on clustering had limited advantage compared to conventional risk scores to predict clinical outcome in patients with T2D and established CV disease.

Cardiovascular Outcomes According to Urinary Albumin and Kidney Disease in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes at High Cardiovascular Risk: Observations From the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Trial.

Importance: An elevated level of urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (UACR) is a marker of renal dysfunction and predictor of kidney failure/death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The prognostic use of UACR in established cardiac biomarkers is not well described. Objective: To evaluate whether UACR offers incremental prognostic benefit beyond risk factors and established plasma cardiovascular biomarkers. Design, Setting, and Participants: The Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (SAVOR-TIMI) 53 study was performed from May 2010 to May 2013 and evaluated the safety of saxagliptin vs placebo in patients with type 2 diabetes with overt cardiovascular disease or multiple risk factors. Median follow-up was 2.1 years (interquartile range, 1.8-2.3 years). Interventions: Patients were randomized to saxagliptin vs placebo plus standard care. Main Outcomes and Measures: Baseline UACR was measured in 15 760 patients (95.6% of the trial population) and categorized into thresholds. Results: Of 15 760 patients, 5205 were female (33.0%). The distribution of UARC categories were: 5805 patients (36.8%) less than 10 mg/g, 3891 patients (24.7%) at 10 to 30 mg/g, 4426 patients (28.1%) at 30 to 300 mg/g, and 1638 patients (10.4%) at more than 300 mg/g. When evaluated without cardiac biomarkers, there was a stepwise increase with each higher UACR category in the incidence of the primary composite end point (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke) (3.9%, 6.9%, 9.2%, and 14.3%); cardiovascular death (1.4%, 2.6%, 4.1%, and 6.9%); and hospitalization for heart failure (1.5%, 2.5%, 4.0%, and 8.3%) (adjusted P < .001 for trend). The net reclassification improvement at the event rate for each end point was 0.081 (95% CI, 0.025 to 0.161), 0.129 (95% CI, 0.029 to 0.202), and 0.056 (95% CI, -0.005 to 0.141), respectively. The stepwise increased cardiovascular risk associated with a UACR of more than 10 mg/g was also present within each chronic kidney disease category. The UACR was associated with outcomes after including cardiac biomarkers. However, the improvement in discrimination and reclassification was attenuated; net reclassification improvement at the event rate was 0.022 (95% CI, -0.022 to 0.067), -0.008 (-0.034 to 0.053), and 0.043 (-0.030 to 0.052) for the primary end point, cardiovascular death, and hospitalization for heart failure, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: In patients with type 2 diabetes, UACR was independently associated with increased risk for a spectrum of adverse cardiovascular outcomes. However, the incremental cardiovascular prognostic value of UACR was minimal when evaluated together with contemporary cardiac biomarkers. Trial Registration: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01107886.

Assessment of Saxagliptin Efficacy: Meta-Analysis of 14 Phase 2 and 3 Clinical Trials.

INTRODUCTION: This meta-analysis of data from 14 phase 2 and 3, double-blind, randomized, controlled 12- and 24-week studies (N = 4632) summarizes saxagliptin efficacy in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) across treatment regimens. METHODS: Patients received saxagliptin 5 mg/d or control as either monotherapy (n = 1196 vs placebo), add-on therapy (n = 2139 vs placebo and n = 514 vs uptitrated sulfonylurea), or initial combination therapy (n = 619 vs control monotherapy). Patients with renal impairment received saxagliptin 2.5 mg/d or placebo (n = 164). RESULTS: Mean baseline glycated hemoglobin (A1C) ranged from 8.07% to 9.43% for the saxagliptin and control groups across treatment regimens. A1C reduction from baseline was greater with saxagliptin versus control for all studies combined (mean treatment difference [95% CI]: -0.55% [-0.63%, -0.47%]) and when used as monotherapy (-0.52% [-0.63, -0.40%]), add-on (-0.55% [-0.69%, -0.40%] vs placebo; -0.72% [-0.88%, -0.56%] vs uptitrated sulfonylurea), initial combination therapy (-0.54% [-0.73%, -0.35%] vs control monotherapy), and in patients with renal impairment (-0.42% [-0.75%, -0.09%]). Similar reductions in A1C versus control were noted for patients <65 years (-0.55% [-0.67%, -0.43%]) and ≥65 years (-0.54% [-0.69%, -0.38%]) and for men (-0.54% [-0.69%, -0.40%]) and women (-0.55% [-0.64%, -0.47%]) across treatment regimens. More patients achieved A1C <7% (39% vs 23%) and A1C ≤6.5% (24% vs 14%) with saxagliptin than with placebo or active-control treatment. Saxagliptin versus control was associated with a reduction in glucagon area under the curve (AUC) from baseline and increases in insulin AUC, C-peptide AUC, and the homeostasis model assessment of ß-cell function. CONCLUSION: Results of this meta-analysis demonstrate the consistency of saxagliptin efficacy in different subgroups of patients with T2D across treatment regimens. FUNDING: AstraZeneca.

Hypoglycaemia manifestations and recurrent events: Lessons from the SAVOR-TIMI 53 outcome study.

Hypoglycaemia is a well-known risk associated with the use of sulphonylureas and insulin, often limiting achievement of glycaemic goals. Recognizing the precipitants and recurrence patterns of hypoglycaemic events, particularly major events, is therefore clinically important. The SAVOR-TIMI-53 trial was a cardiovascular outcome study of 16 492 patients allocated to saxagliptin vs placebo added to conventional care for a median of 2.1 years. Hypoglycaemic events were a prespecified outcome in the study and were defined as a symptomatic episode that recovered with carbohydrates or any recorded blood glucose <3.0 mmol/l (<54 mg/dL). A major event was defined as one that required third-party assistance. Analysis of the features of the first hypoglycaemic event for each patient showed that a precipitant for the event was recognized by fewer than half of the patients, with the precipitant most often being a missed meal. In 40% of patients reporting major hypoglycaemic events, no precipitating factor was recognized, and in >60%, no previous hypoglycaemic event was reported during the timespan of the study, underscoring the lack of predictability of such an event.

Effect of Saxagliptin on Renal Outcomes in the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors may have a protective effect in diabetic nephropathy. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied renal outcomes of 16,492 patients with type 2 diabetes, randomized to saxagliptin versus placebo and followed for a median of 2.1 years in the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 (SAVOR-TIMI 53) trial. RESULTS: At baseline, 9,696 (58.8%) subjects had normoalbuminuria (albumin/creatinine ratio [ACR] <30 mg/g), 4,426 (26.8%) had microalbuminuria (ACR 30-300 mg/g), and 1,638 (9.9%) had macroalbuminuria (ACR >300 mg/g). Treatment with saxagliptin was associated with improvement in and/or less deterioration in ACR categories from baseline to end of trial (EOT) (P = 0.021, P < 0.001, and P = 0.049 for individuals with baseline normoalbuminuria, microalbuminuria, and macroalbuminuria, respectively). At 2 years, the difference in mean ACR change between saxagliptin and placebo arms was -19.3 mg/g (P = 0.033) for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) >50 mL/min/body surface area per 1.73 m2 (BSA), -105 mg/g (P = 0.011) for 50 ≥ eGFR ≥ 30 mL/min/BSA, and -245.2 mg/g (P = 0.086) for eGFR <30 mL/min/BSA. Analyzing ACR as a continuous variable showed reduction in ACR with saxagliptin (1 year, P < 0.0001; 2 years, P = 0.0143; and EOT, P = 0.0158). The change in ACR did not correlate with that in HbA1c (r = 0.041, 0.052, and 0.036; 1 year, 2 years, and EOT, respectively). The change in eGFR was similar in the saxagliptin and placebo groups. Safety renal outcomes, including doubling of serum creatinine, initiation of chronic dialysis, renal transplantation, or serum creatinine >6.0 mg/dL, were similar as well. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with saxagliptin improved ACR, even in the normoalbuminuric range, without affecting eGFR. The beneficial effect of saxagliptin on albuminuria could not be explained by its effect on glycemic control.

Assessment of cardiovascular risk of new drugs for the treatment of diabetes mellitus: risk assessment vs. risk aversion.

The Food and Drug Administration issued guidance for evaluating the cardiovascular risk of new diabetes mellitus drugs in 2008. Accumulating evidence from several completed trials conducted within this framework raises questions as to whether requiring safety outcome studies for all new diabetes mellitus therapies remains justified. Given the burden of cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes, the focus should shift towards cardiovascular outcome studies designed to evaluate efficacy (i.e. to determine the efficacy of a drug over placebo or standard care) rather than demonstrating that risk is not increased by a pre-specified safety margin. All stakeholders are responsible for ensuring that new drug approvals occur under conditions of appropriate safety and effectiveness. It is also a shared responsibility to avoid unnecessary hurdles that may compromise access to useful drugs and threaten the sustainability of health systems. It is critical to renew this debate so that stakeholders can collectively determine the optimal approach for developing new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes mellitus.

Predisposing Factors for Any and Major Hypoglycemia With Saxagliptin Versus Placebo and Overall: Analysis From the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Trial.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the impact of adding saxagliptin versus placebo on the risk for hypoglycemia and to identify predictors of any and major hypoglycemia in patients with type 2 diabetes included in the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 (SAVOR-TIMI 53) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Patients with type 2 diabetes (n = 16,492) were randomized to saxagliptin or placebo and followed for a median of 2.1 years. Associations between any hypoglycemia (symptomatic or glucose measurement <54 mg/dL) or major hypoglycemia (requiring extended assistance) and patient characteristics overall and by treatment allocation were studied. RESULTS: At least one hypoglycemic event was reported in 16.6% of patients, and 1.9% reported at least one major event. Patients allocated to saxagliptin versus placebo experienced higher rates of any (hazard ratio [HR] 1.16 [95% CI 1.08, 1.25]; P < 0.001) or major (HR 1.26 [1.01, 1.58]; P = 0.038) hypoglycemia. Hypoglycemia rates (any or major) were increased with saxagliptin in patients taking sulfonylureas (SURs) but not in those taking insulin. Rates were increased with saxagliptin in those with baseline HbA1c ≤7.0% and not in those with baseline HbA1c >7.0%. Multivariate analysis of the overall population revealed that independent predictors of any hypoglycemia were as follows: allocation to saxagliptin, long duration of diabetes, increased updated HbA1c, macroalbuminuria, moderate renal failure, SUR use, and insulin use. Predictors of major hypoglycemia were allocation to saxagliptin, advanced age, black race, reduced BMI, long duration of diabetes, declining renal function, microalbuminuria, and use of short-acting insulin. Among SURs, glibenclamide was associated with increased risk of major but not any hypoglycemia. CONCLUSIONS: The identification of patients at risk for hypoglycemia can guide physicians to better tailor antidiabetic therapy.

Incidence of Fractures in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes in the SAVOR-TIMI 53 Trial.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with type 2 diabetes have an increased risk of bone fractures, the predisposing factors for which are unknown. Treatment with thiazolidinediones (TZDs) further increases the incidence of osteoporotic fractures. In the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 (SAVOR-TIMI 53) trial, fractures were considered an adverse event of special interest, and information regarding fractures was collected. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We compared the incidence of fractures among the 8,280 patients who were assigned to treatment with saxagliptin with that in the 8,212 patients who were assigned to placebo. We further analyzed the participants' baseline characteristics and fracture risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 2.1 years, 241 patients (2.9%) in the saxagliptin group and 240 (2.9%) in the placebo group experienced a fracture (hazard ratio [HR] 1.00 [95% CI 0.83-1.19]). Event rates for fractures were the same in both treatment arms: 14.7 per 1,000 patient-years in the entire population and 14.0 in the on-treatment population (first event only). Fracture risk was similar in patients treated with saxagliptin or placebo across different subgroups defined by race, cardiovascular risk, and renal function. A multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that risk of fracture was associated with female sex (P < 0.0001), longer diabetes duration (P < 0.0001), older age (P = 0.002), major hypoglycemic events (P = 0.01), noncompliance with study drug (P = 0.01), and treatment with TZDs (P = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: In a large population of older patients with type 2 diabetes, treatment with saxagliptin was not associated with an increased risk of fractures. The association between longer diabetes duration and increased risk of bone fracture is an intriguing finding.

Efficacy and safety of saxagliptin in older participants in the SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the safety and cardiovascular (CV) effects of saxagliptin in the predefined elderly (≥65 years) and very elderly (≥75 years) subpopulations of the Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53 (SAVOR-TIMI 53) trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Individuals ≥40 years (n = 16,492; elderly, n = 8,561; very elderly, n = 2,330) with HbA1c ≥6.5% (47.5 mmol/mol) and ≤12.0% (107.7 mmol/mol) were randomized (1:1) to saxagliptin (5 or 2.5 mg daily) or placebo in a double-blind trial for a median follow-up of 2.1 years. RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for the comparison of saxagliptin versus placebo for the primary end point (composite of CV mortality, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke) was 0.92 for elderly patients vs. 1.15 for patients <65 years (P = 0.06) and 0.95 for very elderly patients. The HRs for the secondary composite end points in the entire cohort, elderly cohort, and very elderly cohort were similar. Although saxagliptin increased the risk of hospitalization for heart failure in the overall saxagliptin population, there was no age-based treatment interaction (P = 0.76 for elderly patients vs. those <65 years; P = 0.34 for very elderly patients vs. those <75 years). Among saxagliptin-treated individuals with baseline HbA1c ≥7.6% (59.6 mmol/mol), the mean change from baseline HbA1c at 2 years was -0.69%, -0.64%, -0.66%, and -0.66% for those ≥65, <65, ≥75, and <75 years old, respectively. The incidence of overall adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs was similar between saxagliptin and placebo in all cohorts; however, hypoglycemic events were higher for saxagliptin versus placebo regardless of age. CONCLUSIONS: The SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial supports the overall CV safety of saxagliptin in a robust number of elderly and very elderly participants, although the risk of heart failure hospitalization was increased irrespective of age category. AEs and serious AEs as well as glycemic efficacy of saxagliptin in elderly patients are similar to those found in younger patients.

Incidence of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in a randomized controlled multicenter trial (SAVOR-TIMI 53) of the dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor saxagliptin.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of pancreatitis and pancreatic cancer in the SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A total of 16,492 type 2 diabetic patients ≥40 years old with established cardiovascular (CV) disease or CV risk factors were randomized to saxagliptin or placebo and followed for 2.1 years. Outcome measures were investigator reported with blinded expert adjudication of total pancreatitis (acute and chronic) and reported cases of pancreatic cancer. RESULTS: Trial investigators reported 35 events of pancreatitis in each treatment arm in 63 patients (33 [0.40%] in the saxagliptin arm and 30 [0.37%] in control arm), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.09 (95% CI 0.66-1.79, P = 0.80). Adjudication confirmed pancreatitis in 24 patients (26 events) in the saxagliptin arm (0.29%) and 21 patients (25 events) in placebo arm (0.26%), with an HR of 1.13 (0.63-2.06, P = 0.77). Cases of definite acute pancreatitis were confirmed in 17 (0.2%) vs. 9 (0.1%) (HR 1.88 [0.86-4.41], P = 0.17), definite plus possible pancreatitis in 22 vs. 16 (HR 1.36 [0.72-2.64], P = 0.42), and chronic pancreatitis in 2 vs. 6 (HR 0.33 [0.05-1.44], P = 0.18) in the saxagliptin and placebo arms, respectively. No differences in time to event onset, concomitant risk factors for pancreatitis, investigator-reported causality from study medication or disease severity, and outcome were found between treatment arms. The investigators reported 5 and 12 cases of pancreatic cancer in the saxagliptin and placebo arms, respectively (HR 0.42 [0.13-1.12], P = 0.09). CONCLUSIONS: In the SAVOR-TIMI 53 trial, within 2.1 years of follow-up, risk for pancreatitis in type 2 diabetic patients treated with saxagliptin was low and apparently similar to placebo, with no sign of increased risk for pancreatic cancer. Further studies are needed to completely resolve the pancreatic safety issues with incretin-based therapy.

Oral direct thrombin inhibitor AZD0837 for the prevention of stroke and systemic embolism in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a Phase II study of AZD0837 in patients who are appropriate for but unable or unwilling to take vitamin K antagonist therapy.

BACKGROUND: Some patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) cannot be treated with vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) and will therefore not receive effective thromboprophylaxis. The primary objective of the present Phase II trial (NCT00623779) was to assess the feasibility of conducting a study with a novel oral anticoagulant, the direct thrombin inhibitor AZD0837, in patients with AF unable or unwilling to take warfarin, by evaluation of dropout rates and compliance. METHODS: Patients were randomised to receive AZD0837 extended-release tablets 150 mg (n=43) or 300 mg (n = 42) once daily, or standard therapy (no treatment, aspirin 75-325 mg or clopidogrel 75 mg once daily; n = 46) for a median treatment duration of 6 weeks. RESULTS: Reasons for patients not being treated with warfarin were: refusal or permanent cessation decided by the patient (64.8%), inability to keep international normalised ratio 2-3 over a 3-month period (23.2%), physician assessment that VKA was inappropriate (20.4%) and warfarin allergy (2.8%). Compliance with treatment (mean ± SD) was 97.0 ± 16.5% for AZD0837 150 mg and 99.8 ± 1.4% for 300 mg. Compliance with study visits was high (mean 93-98%). The numbers of dropouts were four, six and three, whilst minor or clinically significant minor bleeds were reported in zero, five and two patients in the AZD0837 150 mg, 300 mg and standard-therapy groups, respectively. No major bleeds were reported. Both doses of AZD0837 reduced levels of fibrin D-dimer and prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time, ecarin clotting time and thrombin clotting time. CONCLUSIONS: AZD0837 had a good safety profile during this study, including a low incidence of bleeding events, with effective anticoagulation on pharmacodynamic parameters. A larger study in AF patients unable or unwilling to take warfarin is feasible, as judged by compliance and dropout rates.