Age-specific sex ratios: Examining rural-urban variation within low- and middle-income countries.

The balance of men and women in society, captured by sex ratios, determines key social and demographic phenomena. Previous research has explored sex ratios mainly at birth and up to age five at national level, whereas we address rural-urban gaps in sex ratios for all ages. Our measures are based on the United Nations data on rural and urban populations by age and sex for 112 low- and middle-income countries in 2015. We show that rural sex ratios are higher than urban sex ratios among children and older people, whereas at working ages, urban areas are dominated by males. Our analysis suggests that the urban transition itself is not driving the gap in rural-urban sex ratios. Rather, internal migration seems to be key in shaping rural-urban sex ratio divergence in sub-Saharan Africa, while both internal migration and mortality differentials appear to be the predominant mechanisms driving sex ratio gaps in Latin America.

Naming the Precious Child: New Evidence of Intentional Family Planning in Historical Populations.

Can the names parents gave their children give us insights into how parents in historical times planned their families? In this study, we explore whether the names given to the firstborn child can be used as indicators of family-size preferences and, if so, what this reveals about the emergence of intentional family planning over the course of the demographic transition. We analyze historical populations from 1850 to 1940 in the United States, where early fertility control and large sample sizes allow separate analyses of the White and Black populations. We also analyze Norway from 1800 to 1910, where there was a much later fertility transition. A split-sample method allows automated scoring of each name in terms of predicted family size. We find a strong relationship between naming and family size in the U.S. White population as early as 1850, for the Black population beginning in 1940, and for the Norwegian population in 1910. These results provide new evidence of the emergence of "conscious calculation" during the fertility transition. Our methods may also be applicable to modern high-fertility populations in the midst of fertility decline.

The Impact of Grandparental Death on the Fertility of Adult Children.

The increasingly central role of vertical family kinship in Western societies underscores the potential value of intergenerational linkages that tie grandparents to the fertility of their adult children. Recent research has examined the changing demography of grandparenthood and the roles fulfilled by living grandparents, but the complex implications of grandparental death-a key feature of intergenerational linkages over the life course-have drawn less attention. In this article, we explore whether and how childbearing of adult women is affected by the death of grandparents-their own parent(s) or their spouse's parent(s). We develop a novel conceptual framework that presents the pathways of influence and considers the overall impact of grandparental death on childbearing of adult children. We then estimate fixed-effects models to identify causal relationships between grandparental death and childbearing, using linked micro-level census and population register data from Israel for the period 1986-2014. We find that grandparental death leads to a reduction of approximately 5 percentage points in the five-year probability of childbirth. The effects of grandparental death are negative across all parities examined and are broadly similar across grandparent's gender and kinship relation. Additional effects are identified, including how the impact of grandparental death varies with time since the previous birth as well as residential proximity prior to death. We explain how our findings regarding the effect of grandparental death offer insight into the role of living grandparents. Our results suggest that policy-makers concerned with low fertility should explore mechanisms that reinforce potential sources of support from grandparents.

Assimilation and ethnic marriage squeeze in early 20th century America: A gender perspective.

BACKGROUND: During the 19th and early 20th centuries, large waves of international immigrants, often heterogeneous in terms of age and sex structure, arrived in the United States. Within a relatively short time, many of these immigrants were assimilated. While prior studies have identified an impact of the marriage squeeze on intermarriage, the role of gender is less known. METHODS: We use data from the 1930 census to examine the role played by variation in the sex ratios of the six largest immigrant groups at the beginning of the 20th century on marital outcomes by sex. RESULTS: Our analyses show that the probability of marrying outside one's ethnic group in this period is strongly tied to local ethnic sex ratios. Marital outcomes are affected for both sexes, but sex ratios are found to be more influential on males marrying out of their ethnic group. While a surplus of one's own sex increases the probability of exogamy for males, it is likely to increase the probability of being single for females. CONTRIBUTION: Our findings highlight the importance of ethnic sex ratios in local marriage markets at a critical juncture of American immigration and its consequences. We focus on an understudied aspect of this process: gender differences in the association between sex ratios and marital assimilation. We show that marital decisions differed by sex and that the high levels of intermarriage in this period are more likely to be explained by unbalanced sex ratios for males than for females.

Strangers in the Field: A Methodological Experiment on Interviewer-Respondent Familiarity.

Evaluating a long-term methodological norm - the use of interviewers who have no prior social relationship to respondents - we compare response patterns across levels of interviewer-respondent familiarity. We differentiate three distinct levels of interviewer-respondent familiarity, based on whether the interviewer is directly acquainted with the respondent or their family, acquainted with the research setting, or is a complete outsider. We also identify three mechanisms through which variability in interviewer-respondent familiarity can affect survey responses: the effort a respondent is willing to make; their level of trust in the interviewer; and interview-specific situational factors. Using data from a methodological experiment fielded in the Dominican Republic, we then gauge the effects of each of these on a range of behavioral and attitudinal questions. Empirical results suggest that respondents expend marginally more effort in answering questions posed by insider-interviewers, and that they also lie less to insider-interviewers. Differences in responses to "trust" questions also largely favor insider-interviewers. Overall, therefore, local interviewers, including those whom, in blatant violation of the stranger-interviewer norm, have a prior relationship with the respondent, collect superior data on some items. And on almost no item do they collect data that are measurably worse.

Voulant évaluer une pratique méthodologique ancienne ­ le recours à des enquêteurs qui n'ont pas eu d'interactions préalable avec la personne interrogée -, nous comparons les réponses apportées à un questionnaire en fonction du niveau de familiarité entretenu entre les deux protagonistes. L'article se fonde sur trois catégories distinctes de familiarité : si l'enquêteur est en relation directe avec la personne interrogée ou sa famille, s'il connaît le terrain d'enquête dans lequel il intervient, ou s'il en est complètement étranger. Nous identifions trois mécanismes au travers desquels ce lien entre un enquêteur et un enquêté peut affecter les réponses : le degré avec lequel la personne interrogée est prête à faire des efforts pour répondre, son niveau de confiance envers l'enquêteur, ainsi que des facteurs spécifiques à la situation d'entretien. A partir de données d'expérimentation méthodologique conduites en République Dominicaine, nous avons mesuré les effets de chacun de ces mécanismes sur des réponses à des questions portant sur des comportements et attitudes. Les résultats empiriques suggèrent que les répondants font à la marge plus d'efforts pour répondre lorsque les questions sont posées par un enquêteur familier ; de la même manière, ils lui mentent moins souvent. Les réponses apportées aux questions « de confiance ¼ tendent également largement en faveur d'un enquêteur connu du répondant. Plus généralement, le recours à des enquêteurs locaux, c'est-à-dire issus du terrain et incluant donc, en violation des règles habituellement suivies, des enquêteurs ayant déjà eu des relations avec la personne interrogée, produit des données plus fiables sur plusieurs items. Sur la plupart des items, les données collectées ne sont, en tous les cas, pas moins bonnes.

Can incentives improve survey data quality in developing countries?: results from a field experiment in India.

We report results of an experiment designed to assess whether the payment of contingent incentives to respondents in Karnataka, India, impacts the quality of survey data. Of 2276 households sampled at the city block level, 934 were randomly assigned to receive a small one-time payment at the time of the survey, whereas the remaining households did not receive this incentive. We analyse the effects of incentives across a range of questions that are common in survey research in less developed countries. Our study suggests that incentives reduced unit non-response. Conditionally on participation, we also find little impact of incentives on a broad range of sociodemographic, behavioural and attitudinal questions. In contrast, we consistently find that households that received incentives reported substantially lower consumption and income levels and fewer assets. Given random assignment and very high response rates, the most plausible interpretation of this finding is that incentivizing respondents in this setting may increase their motivation to present themselves as more needy, whether to justify the current payment or to increase the chance of receiving resources in the future. Therefore, despite early indications that contingent incentives may raise response rates, the net effect on data quality must be carefully considered.

The exclusion from welfare benefits: Resentment and survey attrition in a randomized controlled trial in Mexico.

Public policy programs must often impose limits on who may be eligible for benefits. Despite research on the impact of exclusion in developed countries, there is little evidence on how people react to being excluded from benefits in developing societies. Utilizing repeated waves of data from an experimental evaluation of Mexico's foundational PROGRESA antipoverty program, we examine the impact of exclusion and distinguish two separate forms. "Statistical exclusion" occurs where determination of benefits is based on randomized assignment to a treatment and control group. "Needs-based exclusion" occurs when benefits programs are designed to be selective rather than universal, basing eligibility on characteristics, like relative poverty, that are difficult to measure simply and accurately. Focusing on temporal variation in survey non-response as our behavioral outcome, we show that needs-based exclusion has much greater negative effects on continued participation than statistical exclusion. We also show that these effects are concentrated among the wealthy, that is, those furthest from the eligibility cut-off line. These findings reinforce general concerns about the validity of evaluation studies when incentives are at work. We discuss both the behavioral explanations that might underlie these findings as well as some potential approaches to reduce threats to evaluation validity.

From Patrick to John F.: Ethnic Names and Occupational Success in the Last Era of Mass Migration.

Taking advantage of historical census records that include full first and last names, we apply a new approach to measuring the effect of cultural assimilation on economic success for the children of the last great wave of immigrants to the United States. We created a quantitative index of ethnic distinctiveness of first names and show the consequences of ethnic-sounding names for the occupational achievement of the adult children of European migrants. We find a consistent tendency for the children of Irish, Italian, German, and Polish immigrants with more "American"-sounding names to have higher occupational achievement. About one-third of this effect appears to be due to social class differences in name-giving, and the remaining two-thirds to signaling effects of the names themselves. An exception is found for Russian, predominantly Jewish, immigrants, where we find a positive effect of ethnic naming on occupational achievement. The divergent effects of our new measure of cultural assimilation, sometimes hurting and sometimes helping, lend historical empirical support to more recent theories of the advantages of different paths to assimilation. The effects of first names are robust to controls for the ethnic recognizability of last names, suggesting that immigrants' success depended on being perceived as making an effort to assimilate rather than hiding one's origins.

A test of the stranger-interviewer norm in the Dominican Republic.

We offer the first empirical test of the 'stranger-interviewer norm', according to which interviewers in social, demographic, and health surveys should be strangers-not personally familiar with respondents. We use data from an experimental survey in the Dominican Republic that featured three types of interviewer: from out of town (outsiders); local but unknown to the respondent (local-strangers); and local with a previous relationship to the respondent (insiders). We were able to validate answers to up to 18 questions per respondent, mainly by checking official documents in their possession. Contrary to expectations derived from the stranger-interviewer norm, respondents were more reluctant to show the documents needed for validation when the interviewer was an outsider. Furthermore, and again at odds with the stranger-interviewer norm, we found no difference in accuracy by type of interviewer. Our results have important implications for the selection of survey interviewers in less developed and non-Western settings.

Family Planning for Strangers: An Experiment on the Validity of Reported Contraceptive Use.

Sterilization levels reported in the Dominican Republic appear well above what we would normally expect given prevailing patterns in the region. We suspect that the use of strangers as interviewers--the normative approach in data collection in both developed and developing country settings--may be partly responsible for this result, and may underlie a long history of bias in family planning data. We present findings from a field experiment conducted in a Dominican town in 2010, where interviewer assignment was randomized by level of preexisting level of familiarity between interviewer and respondent. In our data, sterilization use is higher when the interviewer is an outsider, as opposed to someone known to the respondent or from the same community. In addition, high sterilization use is correlated with a propensity of respondents to present themselves in a positive light to interviewers. These results call into question the routine use of strangers and outsiders as interviewers in demographic and health surveys.

The dislocations of terror: Assessments of risk during the Second Intifada.

The goal of terrorism is to create havoc and disrupt the normal functioning of society. To understand the impact of terrorism on a country it is useful to consider two types of country experiences with these shocks to the social order-the instance of a very small number of attacks against high profile targets and the case of chronic terror with a great number of attacks, generally against targets that are part of routine daily activities. The present study explores the Israeli experience with chronic terror. Using expenditure information from coffee shops and restaurants we examine how individuals assess their vulnerability to an attack and adjust their behavior. Specifically, we explore whether distance from the site of an attack, and similarity of a contemplated undertaking to the target of a recent attack, influence decision making in a context of chronic terror. We find strong support for a situational similarity effect but only weak evidence for a proximity effect. We examine the implications of these findings for the organization of economic activity.

Gender and migration from Albania.

This article examines the dynamics and causes of the shift in the gender composition of migration, and more particularly, in women's access to migration opportunities and decision-making. Our analysis focuses on Albania, a natural laboratory for studying international migration where out-migration was essentially nonexistent from the end of World War II to the end of the 1980s. Interest in the Albanian case is heightened because of the complex layers of inequality existing at the time when migration began: relatively low levels of inequality within the labor market and educational system-a product of the Communist era-while household relations remained heavily steeped in tradition and patriarchy. We use micro-level data from the Albania 2005 Living Standards Measurement Study, including migration histories for family members since migration began. Based on discrete-time hazard models, the analysis shows a dramatic increase in male migration and a gradual and uneven expansion of the female proportion of this international migration. Female migration, which is shown to be strongly associated with education, wealth, and social capital, appears responsive to economic incentives and constraints. Using information on the dependency of female migration to the household demographic structure as well as the sensitivity of female migration to household-level shocks, we show how household-level constraints and incentives affect male and female migration differently. Throughout this period, however, women's migration behavior appears more directly aligned with household-level factors, and there is little evidence to suggest that increased female migration signals rising behavioral independence among Albanian women.

Anxiety symptoms of new mothers during a period of recurrent, local terror.

OBJECTIVE: From September 2000, Israelis have been exposed to frequent terror attacks. In this study, we evaluated the severity of anxiety symptoms among Jerusalem-based mothers during the period of terror (1/2002 to 2/2005). METHOD: Women (N=595) were recruited from maternity wards in public hospitals throughout the three year interval, and each participant was administered a standardized anxiety inventory (Beck Anxiety Inventory, BAI) by phone five months after giving birth. RESULTS: Results show that anxiety scores were within normal range throughout the assessment period, but were most severe early in 2002, when the casualty-toll was especially high. Psychological symptoms consistently were rated higher in severity than physiological symptoms and only physiological symptoms declined in the aftermath of attacks. Tests for risk factors revealed higher scores among young mothers (<21 years old), new immigrants (<10 years in the country), and women who delivered by c-section. CONCLUSION: Our sample did not experience high levels of anxiety despite the challenge of adapting to parenthood within a context of local terror.

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from Latin America.

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.

Socio-economic status, permanent income, and fertility: a latent-variable approach.

This paper examines how permanent income and other components of socio-economic status (SES) are related to fertility in less developed countries. Because permanent income cannot be measured directly, we employ a latent-variable method. We compare our results with those of the more common proxy-variable method and investigate the consequences of not accounting for measurement error. Using data from Ghana and Peru, we find that permanent income has a large, negative influence on fertility and that research must take the latent nature of permanent income into account to uncover its influence. Controlling for measurement error in the proxies for permanent income can also lead to substantial changes in the estimated effects of control variables. Finally, we examine which of the common proxies for permanent income most closely capture the concept. The results have implications beyond this specific dependent variable, providing evidence on the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of long-term economic status.

Do conditional cash transfers influence migration? A study using experimental data from the Mexican PROGRESA program.

Prior research on Mexican migration has shown that social networks and economic incentives play an important role in determining migration outcomes. We use experimental data from PROGRESA, Mexico's primary poverty-reduction program, to evaluate the effects of conditional cash transfers on migration both domestically and to the United States. Our study complements a growing body of literature aimed at overcoming longstanding hurdles to the establishment of causal validity in empirical studies of migration. Analysis based on the data collected before and after the program's onset shows that conditional transfers reduce U.S. migration but not domestic migration. The data also enable us to explore the role of existing family and community migration networks. The results show that migration networks strongly influence migration, but that the effect of conditional transfers on migration is apparently not mediated by existing migration network structures. Our results suggest that conditional transfers may be helpful in managing rural out-migration, particularly to the United States.

Terror attacks influence driving behavior in Israel.

Terror attacks in Israel produce a temporary lull in light accidents followed by a 35% spike in fatal accidents on Israeli roads 3 days after the attack. Our results are based on time-series analysis of Israeli traffic flows, accidents, and terror attacks from January 2001 through June 2002. Whereas prior studies have focused on subjective reports of posttraumatic stress, our study shows a population-level behavioral response to violent terror attacks.

The effect of structural characteristics on family planning program performance in Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria.

This paper uses Côte d'Ivoire and Nigeria survey data on both supply and demand characteristics to examine how structural and demographic factors influence family planning provision and cost. The model, which takes into account the endogenous influence of service provision on average cost, explains provision well but poorly explains what influences service cost. We show that both size and specialization matter. In both countries, vertical (exclusive family planning) facilities provide significantly more contraception than integrated medical establishments. In the Nigeria sample, larger facilities also offer services at lower average cost. Since vertical facilities tend to be large, they at most incur no higher unit costs than integrated facilities. These results are consistent across most model specifications, and are robust to corrections for endogenous facility placement in Nigeria. Model results and cost recovery information point to the relative efficiency of the International Planned Parenthood Federation, which operates large, mostly vertically organized facilities.

Defining health inequality: why Rawls succeeds where social welfare theory fails.

While there has been an important increase in methodological and empirical studies on health inequality, not much has been written on the theoretical foundation of health inequality measurement. We discuss several reasons why the classic welfare approach, which is the foundation of income inequality analysis, fails to provide a satisfactory foundation for health inequality analysis. We propose an alternative approach which is more closely linked to the WHO concept of equity in health and is also consistent with the ethical principles espoused by Rawls [A Theory of Justice. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1971]. This approach in its simplest form, is shown to be closely related to the concentration curve when health and income are positively related. Thus, the criteria presented in our paper provide an important theoretical foundation for empirical analysis using the concentration curve. We explore the properties of these approaches by developing policy scenarios and examining how various ethical criteria affect government strategies for targeting health interventions.

Economic status proxies in studies of fertility in developing countries: Does the measure matter?

This paper investigates the consequences of using different economic status proxies on the estimated impact of economic status and other determinants of fertility. Using micro survey data from Ghana and Peru, we find that the proxies for income that best predict fertility are a principal components score of the ownership of consumer durable goods and a simple sum of ownership of these durable goods. Furthermore, the choice of the proxy generally has a minor influence on the predicted effects of the control variables. We compare the results from using a restricted set of proxies, such as those available in the Demographic and Health Surveys, with the results obtained using a lengthier set of proxies. Our results suggest implications beyond fertility analyses by providing researchers with an awareness of the sensitivity of microanalyses to the treatment of economic status. Our results also suggest practical recommendations for the collection of survey data.