Using a chain of models to predict health and environmental impacts in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident at the Sellafield site.

When a nuclear accident occurs, decision makers in the affected country/countries would need to act promptly to protect people, the environment and societal interests from harmful impacts of radioactive fallout. The decisions are usually based on a combination of model prognoses, measurements, and expert judgements within in an emergency decision support system (DSS). Large scale nuclear accidents would need predictive models for the atmospheric, terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems, for the connections between these in terms of radionuclide fluxes, and for the various exposure pathways to both humans and biota. Our study showed that eight different models and DSS modules could be linked to assess the total human and environmental consequences in Norway from a hypothetical nuclear accident, here chosen to be the Sellafield nuclear reprocessing plant. Activity concentrations and dose rates from 137Cs for both humans and the environment via various exposure routes were successfully modelled. The study showed that a release of 1% of the total inventory of 137Cs in the Highly Active Liquor Tanks at Sellafield Ltd is predicted to severely impact humans and the environment in Norway if strong winds are blowing towards the country at the time of an accidental atmospheric release. Furthermore, since the models did not have built-in uncertainty ranges when this Sellafield study was performed, investigations were conducted to identify the key factors contributing to uncertainty in various models and prioritise the ones to focus on in future research.

Modelling dispersal of radioactive contaminants in Arctic waters as a result of potential recovery operations on the dumped submarine K-27.

Of the wide variety of dumped objects containing radioactive materials in the Arctic seas, the submarine K-27 constitutes a major risk due to the large amount of highly enriched uranium onboard and its location in shallow waters. As the matter of potential operations involving raising of the submarine have entered the public arena, a priori assessment of the contamination in the Arctic marine environment that could result after a possible accident during such operations is a matter of some interest. The dispersion of contaminants within the Arctic has been assessed using a large scale hydrodynamic model for a series of plausible accident scenarios and locations under different oceanographic regimes. Results indicate that, depending primarily on the nature of a release (i.e. instantaneous or continuous), large areas of the Arctic marine environment will exhibit contamination to varying degrees.

On the divergences in assessment of environmental impacts from ionising radiation following the Fukushima accident.

The accident at the Fukushima-Daiichi Nuclear Power Station on March 11, 2011, led to significant contamination of the surrounding terrestrial and marine environments. Whilst impacts on human health remain the primary concern in the aftermath of such an accident, recent years have seen a significant body of work conducted on the assessment of the accident's impacts on both the terrestrial and marine environment. Such assessments have been undertaken at various levels of biological organisation, for different species, using different methodologies and coming, in many cases, to divergent conclusions as to the effects of the accident on the environment. This article provides an overview of the work conducted in relation to the environmental impacts of the Fukushima accident, critically comparing and contrasting methodologies and results with a view towards finding reasons for discrepancies, should they indeed exist. Based on the outcomes of studies conducted to date, it would appear that in order to avoid the fractured and disparate conclusions drawn in the aftermath of previous accidents, radioactive contaminants and their effects can no longer simply be viewed in isolation with respect to the ecosystems these effects may impact. A combination of laboratory based and field studies with a focus on ecosystem functioning and effects could offer the best opportunities for coherence in the interpretation of the results of studies into the environmental impacts of ionising radiation.

The IUR Forum: Worldwide Harmonisation of Networks to Support Integration of Scientific Knowledge and Consensus Development in Radioecology.

During the past decades, many specialised networks have formed to meet specific radioecological objectives, whether regional or sectorial (purpose-oriented). Regional networks deal with an array of radioecological issues related to their territories. Examples include the South Pacific network of radioecologists, and the European network of excellence in radioecology. The latter is now part of the European platform for radiation protection. Sectorial networks are more problem-oriented, often with wider international representativeness, but restricted to one specific issue, (e.g. radioactive waste, low-level atmospheric contamination, modelling). All such networks, while often working in relative isolation, contribute to a flow of scientific information which, through United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR's) efforts of synthesis, feeds into the radiation protection frameworks of protecting humans and the environment. The IUR has therefore prompted a co-construction process aimed at improving worldwide harmonisation of radioecology networks. An initiative based on an initial set of 15 networks, now called the IUR FORUM, was launched in June 2014. The IUR Forum agreed to build a framework for improved coordination of scientific knowledge, integration and consensus development relative to environmental radioactivity. Three objectives have been collectively assigned to the IUR FORUM: (1) coordination, (2) global integration and construction of consensus and (3) maintenance of expertise. One particular achievement of the FORUM was an improved description and common understanding of the respective roles and functions of the various networks within the overall scene of radioecology R&D. It clarifies how the various networks assembled within the IUR FORUM interface with UNSCEAR and other international regulatory bodies (IAEA, ICRP), and how consensus on the assessment of risk is constructed. All these agencies interact with regional networks covering different geographical areas, and with other networks which address specific topics within radiation protection. After holding its first Consensus Symposium in 2015, examining the possible ecological impact of radiation from environmental contamination, the IUR FORUM continues its work towards improved radiation protection of humans and the environment. We welcome new members.

Protection of the environment in existing exposure situations.

The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) described its approach to the protection of the environment and how it should be applied in Publication 124 The report expanded on the Commission's objectives for environmental protection, and how the Derived Consideration Reference Levels (DCRLs) apply within different exposure situations. DCRLs relate radiation effects to doses over and above their normal local background radiation levels, and consider different potential pathways of exposure for animals and plants. This paper will describe how the DCRLs may be used within existing exposure situations to better understand the potential impacts on animals and plants. In these circumstances, the Commission recommends that the aim be to reduce exposures to levels that are within the DCRL bands (or even below, depending upon the potential cost/benefits), but with full consideration of the radiological and non-radiological consequences of doing so. Using examples, this paper will demonstrate how this may be achieved in practice, bearing in mind the potential exposure of humans, animals and plants during and following any remediation attempted.

Derivation of risk indices and analysis of variablility for the management of incidents involving the transport of nuclear materials in the Northern Seas.

The transport of nuclear or radioactive materials and the presence of nuclear powered vessels pose risks to the Northern Seas in terms of potential impacts to man and environment as well socio-economic impacts. Management of incidents involving actual or potential releases to the marine environment are potentially difficult due to the complexity of the environment into which the release may occur and difficulties in quantifying risk to both man and environment. In order to address this, a state of the art oceanographic model was used to characterize the underlying variability for a specific radionuclide release scenario. The resultant probabilistic data were used as inputs to transfer and dose models providing an indication of potential impacts for man and environment This characterization was then employed to facilitate a rapid means of quantifying risk to man and the environment that included and addressed this variability. The radionuclide specific risk indices derived can be applied by simply multiplying the reported values by the magnitude of the source term and thereafter summing over all radionuclides to provide an indication of total risk.

Performance of distributed multiscale simulations.

Multiscale simulations model phenomena across natural scales using monolithic or component-based code, running on local or distributed resources. In this work, we investigate the performance of distributed multiscale computing of component-based models, guided by six multiscale applications with different characteristics and from several disciplines. Three modes of distributed multiscale computing are identified: supplementing local dependencies with large-scale resources, load distribution over multiple resources, and load balancing of small- and large-scale resources. We find that the first mode has the apparent benefit of increasing simulation speed, and the second mode can increase simulation speed if local resources are limited. Depending on resource reservation and model coupling topology, the third mode may result in a reduction of resource consumption.

ICRP Publication 124: Protection of the Environment under Different Exposure Situations.

In this report, the Commission describes its framework for protection of the environment and how it should be applied within the Commission's system of protection. The report expands upon its objectives in relation to protection of the environment, in so far as it relates to the protection of animals and plants (biota) in their natural environment, and how these can be met by the use of Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs); their Derived Consideration Reference Levels (DCRLs), which relate radiation effects to doses over and above their normal local background natural radiation levels; and different potential pathways of exposure. The report explains the different types of exposure situations to which its recommendations apply; the key principles that are relevant to protection of the environment; and hence how reference values based on the use of DCRLs can be used to inform on the appropriate level of effort relevant to different exposure situations. Further recommendations are made with regard to how the Commission's recommendations can be implemented to satisfy different forms of environmental protection objectives, which may require the use of representative organisms specific to a site, and how these may be compared with the reference values. Additional information is also given with regard to, in particular, communication with other interested parties and stakeholders. Issues that may arise in relation to compliance are also discussed, and the final chapter discusses the overall implications of the Commission's work in this area to date. Appendices A and B provide some numerical information relating to the RAPs. Annex C considers various existing types of environmental protection legislation currently in place in relation to large industrial sites and practices, and the various ways in which wildlife are protected from various threats arising from such sites.

ICRP Publication 126: Radiological Protection against Radon Exposure.

In this report, the Commission provides updated guidance on radiological protection against radon exposure. The report has been developed considering the latest ICRP recommendations for the system of radiological protection, all available scientific knowledge about the risks of radon, and the experience gained by many organisations and countries in the control of radon exposure. The report describes the characteristics of radon exposure, covering sources and transfer mechanisms, the health risks associated with radon, and the challenges of managing radon exposure. The Commission recommends an integrated approach for controlling radon exposure, relying as far as possible on the management of buildings or locations in which radon exposure occurs, whatever the use of the building. This approach is based on the optimisation principle, and is graded reflecting the responsibilities of key stakeholders, notably in workplaces, and the intent of the national authorities to control radon exposure. The report also provides recommendations on managing radon exposure when workers' exposures are considered as occupational, and the appropriate requirements of the Commission should be applied.

Advances in NORM management in Norway and the application of ICRP's 2007 recommendations.

In Norway, the largest reported quantities of radioactive discharges and radioactive waste containing naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) come from the oil and gas sector, and smaller quantities of other NORM waste are also produced by industrial or mining processes. The Gulen final repository for radioactive waste from the oil and gas industry from the Norwegian continental shelf was opened in 2008 and has a capacity of 6000 tonnes. As of 1 January 2011, a new regulation was enforced whereby radioactive waste and radioactive pollution was integrated in the Pollution Control Act from 1981. This means that radioactive waste and radioactive pollution are now regulated under the same legal framework as all other pollutants and hazardous wastes. The regulation establishes two sets of criteria defining radioactive waste: a lower value for when waste is considered to be radioactive waste, and a higher value, in most cases, for when this waste must be disposed of in a final waste repository. For example, waste containing ≥ 1 Bq/g of Ra-226 is defined as radioactive waste, while radioactive waste containing ≥ 10 Bq/g of Ra-226 must be disposed of in a final repository. Radioactive waste between 1 and 10B q/g can be handled and disposed of by waste companies who have a licence for handling hazardous waste according to the Pollution Control Act. Alternatively, they will need a separate licence for handling radioactive waste from the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority. The goal of the new regulation is that all radioactive waste should be handled and stored in a safe manner, and discharges should be controlled through a licensing regime in order to avoid/not pose unnecessary risk to humans or the environment. This paper will elaborate on the new regulation of radioactive waste and the principles of NORM management in Norway in view of the International Commission on Radiological Protection's 2007 Recommendations.

Radioecological studies at the Kraton-3 underground nuclear explosion site in 1978-2007: a review.

Within this paper, radioecological data concerning the "peaceful" underground nuclear explosion Kraton-3, conducted at a remote Arctic location (65.9 degrees N, 112.3 degrees E) within the former USSR in 1978, are reviewed. The data and estimates published in the available literature sources before September 2008 could be grouped as following: (a) characterisation of the current radioactive contamination (gamma-, beta- and alpha-emitters) of environmental compartments in terms of radionuclides composition, activity concentration, area contamination density; (b) determination of current gamma dose rates in air, including mapping using GPS; (c) evaluation of cumulative gamma doses in air (with calculations and thermoluminiscence measurements in ceramic objects); (d) description of the visually distinguishable changes in the terrestrial ecosystem; (e) description and quantitative evaluation of morphological abnormalities in the organs of adult plants as well as in seeds and seedlings of some herbs and shrubs, and in small mammals; (f) application of countermeasures. Knowledge gaps and possible further studies are indicated.

Floating nuclear power plants: potential implications for radioactive pollution of the northern marine environment.

Recent media reports as to the development, construction and possible deployment of floating nuclear power plants in the northern regions has generated significant interest in the matter. This paper presents background to the concept of floating nuclear power plants, information as to possible designs and iterations and some aspects of potential concern with respect to safety and the potential for environmental or other impacts as a result of the development and use of such systems in the northern regions.

ICRP Publication 114. Environmental protection: transfer parameters for reference animals and plants.

In Publication 103 (ICRP, 2007), the Commission included a section on the protection of the environment, and indicated that it would be further developing its approach to this difficult subject by way of a set of Reference Animals and Plants (RAPs) as the basis for relating exposure to dose, and dose to radiation effects, for different types of animals and plants. Subsequently, a set of 12 RAPs has been described in some detail (ICRP, 2008), particularly with regard to estimation of the doses received by them, at a whole-body level, in relation to internal and external radionuclide concentrations; and what is known about the effects of radiation on such types of animals and plants. A set of dose conversion factors for all of the RAPs has been derived, and the resultant dose rates can be compared with evaluations of the effects of dose rates using derived consideration reference levels (DCRLs). Each DCRL constitutes a band of dose rates for each RAP within which there is likely to be some chance of the occurrence of deleterious effects. Site-specific data on Representative Organisms (i.e. organisms of specific interest for an assessment) can then be compared with such values and used as a basis for decision making. It is intended that the Commission's approach to protection of the environment be applied to all exposure situations. In some situations, the relevant radionuclide concentrations can be measured directly, but this is not always possible or feasible. In such cases, modelling techniques are used to estimate the radionuclide concentrations. This report is an initial step in addressing the needs of such modelling techniques. After briefly reviewing the basic factors relating to the accumulation of radionuclides by different types of biota, in different habitats, and at different stages in the life cycle, this report focuses on the approaches used to model the transfer of radionuclides through the environment. It concludes that equilibrium concentration ratios (CRs) are most commonly used to model such transfers, and that they currently offer the most comprehensive data coverage. The report also reviews the methods used to derive CRs, and describes a means of summarising statistical information from empirical data sets. Emphasis has been placed on using data from field studies, although some data from laboratory experiments have been included for some RAPs. There are, inevitably, many data gaps for each RAP, and other data have been used to help fill these gaps. CRs specific to each RAP were extracted from a larger database, structured in terms of generic wildlife groups. In cases where data were lacking, values from taxonomically-related organisms were used to derive suitable surrogate values. The full set of rules which have been applied for filling gaps in RAP-specific CRs is described. Statistical summaries of the data sets are provided, and CR values for 39 elements and 12 RAP combinations are given. The data coverage, reliance on derived values, and applicability of the CR approach for each of the RAPs is discussed. Finally, some consideration is given to approaches where RAPs and their life stages could be measured for the elements of interest under more rigorously controlled conditions to help fill the current data gaps.

ICRP Publication 111 - Application of the Commission's recommendations to the protection of people living in long-term contaminated areas after a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency.

In this report, the Commission provides guidance for the protection of people living in long-term contaminated areas resulting from either a nuclear accident or a radiation emergency. The report considers the effects of such events on the affected population. This includes the pathways of human exposure, the types of exposed populations, and the characteristics of exposures. Although the focus is on radiation protection considerations, the report also recognises the complexity of post-accident situations, which cannot be managed without addressing all the affected domains of daily life, i.e. environmental, health, economic, social, psychological, cultural, ethical, political, etc. The report explains how the 2007 Recommendations apply to this type of existing exposure situation, including consideration of the justification and optimisation of protection strategies, and the introduction and application of a reference level to drive the optimisation process. The report also considers practical aspects of the implementation of protection strategies, both by authorities and the affected population. It emphasises the effectiveness of directly involving the affected population and local professionals in the management of the situation, and the responsibility of authorities at both national and local levels to create the conditions and provide the means favouring the involvement and empowerment of the population. The role of radiation monitoring, health surveillance, and the management of contaminated foodstuffs and other commodities is described in this perspective. The Annex summarises past experience of longterm contaminated areas resulting from radiation emergencies and nuclear accidents, including radiological criteria followed in carrying out remediation measures.

Will global warming affect soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides?

Recent assessments of global climate/environmental change are reaching a consensus that global climate change is occurring but there is significant uncertainty over the likely magnitude of this change and its impacts. There is little doubt that all aspects of the natural environment will be impacted to some degree. Soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides has long been a significant topic in radioecology, both for the protection of humans and the environment from the effects of ionising radiation. Even after five decades of research considerable uncertainty exists as to the interplay of key environmental processes in controlling soil-plant transfer. As many of these processes are, to a lesser or greater extent, climate-dependent, it can be argued that climate/environmental change will impact soil-to-plant transfer of radionuclides and subsequent transfers in specific environments. This discussion attempts to highlight the possible role of climatic and climate-dependent variables in soil-to-plant transfer processes within the overall predictions of climate/environmental change. The work is speculative, and intended to stimulate debate on a theme that radioecology has either ignored or avoided in recent years.

Soil-dependent uptake of 137Cs by mushrooms: experimental study in the Chernobyl accident areas.

The influence of agrochemical properties of forest soils and growth conditions on 137Cs aggregated transfer factors from soil to different species of forest mushrooms have been analysed. Statistically significant correlations between 137Cs soil to mushroom aggregated transfer factors and agrochemical soil properties have been revealed. The experimental data show that 137Cs aggregated transfer factors depend on the mushroom's trophic group, biological family, genus and species. They also strongly depend on forest soil properties and their values can be estimated with the use of multiple regression equations constructed from agrochemical soil parameters which most closely correlate with the 137Cs transfer parameters for particular mushroom groups.

Comparative radiation impact on biota and man in the area affected by the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant.

A methodological approach for a comparative assessment of ionising radiation effects on man and non-human species, based on the use of Radiation Impact Factor (RIF) - ratios of actual exposure doses to biota species and man to critical dose is described. As such doses, radiation safety standards limiting radiation exposure of man and doses at which radiobiological effects in non-human species were not observed after the Chernobyl accident, were employed. For the study area within the 30km ChNPP zone dose burdens to 10 reference biota groups and the population (with and without evacuation) and the corresponding RIFs were calculated. It has been found that in 1986 (early period after the accident) the emergency radiation standards for man do not guarantee adequate protection of the environment, some species of which could be affected more than man. In 1991 RIFs for man were considerably (by factor of 20.0-1.1 x 10(5)) higher compared with those for selected non-human species. Thus, for the long term after the accident radiation safety standards for man are shown to ensure radiation safety for biota as well.

Lake fish as the main contributor of internal dose to lakeshore residents in the Chernobyl contaminated area.

Two field expeditions in 1996 studied 137Cs intake patterns and its content in the bodies of adult residents from the village Kozhany in the Bryansk region, Russia, located on the shore of a drainless peat lake in an area subjected to significant radioactive contamination after the 1986 Chernobyl accident. The 137Cs contents in lake water and fish were two orders of magnitude greater than in local rivers and flow-through lakes, 10 years after Chernobyl radioactive contamination, and remain stable. The 137Cs content in lake fish and a mixture of forest mushrooms was between approximately 10-20 kBq/kg, which exceeded the temporary Russian permissible levels for these products by a factor of 20-40. Consumption of lake fish gave the main contribution to internal doses (40-50%) for Kozhany village inhabitants Simple countermeasures, such as Prussian blue doses for dairy cows and pre-boiling mushrooms and fish before cooking, halved the 137Cs internal dose to inhabitants, even 10 years after the radioactive fallout.

The Oslo consensus conference on protection of the environment.

A number of international organisations are focussing on a revision of radiation protection policy from the existing system which addresses only effects on man, to one which also addresses effects on the wider environment. These developments are expected to effect a wide range of stakeholders, including industry, regulators, scientists, users and the public. With this in mind a "Consensus Conference on Protection of the Environment" was arranged as part of an International Seminar on "Radiation Protection in the 21st Century: Ethical, Philosophical and Environmental Issues" held at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters. The conference attracted 46 international experts representing various disciplines and affiliations including Environmental Science, Health Physics, Radioecology, Ethics and Philosophy and a wide spectrum of perspectives bearing on the question of radiation protection of the environment. The conference was novel in that the participants were professionals rather than laypersons, and the purpose of the consensus procedure was to identify areas of agreement as an input to the ongoing regulatory developments. The success and innovation of the model is reflected in the significant areas of agreement identified in the final consensus statement, and the subsequent interest at an international level. Participants also noted the need for furthering the debate through ongoing work. Notable issues were the harmonisation of standards for radiation with other environmental stressors, guidance for balancing different interests and values within practical management, and the need for assessment criteria.

Assessment of the current internal dose due to 137Cs and 90Sr for people living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site, Kazakhstan.

The Semipalatinsk Test Site in Kazakhstan was one of the major sites used by the USSR for testing nuclear weapons for more than 40 y. Since the early 1990's, responsibility for the site has passed to the Kazakh authorities. There has been a gradual re-establishment of agricultural use such as horse and sheep farming. Therefore, it has become important to evaluate the current and future risk to people living on and using the contaminated area. Internal dose assessment is one of the main components of the total dose when deriving risk factors for population living within the test site. Internal doses based on food monitoring and whole body measurements were calculated for adults and are in the range of 13-500 microSv y(-1) due to radiocesium and radiostrontium.