Invited Commentary: Thirty-five Years of Leaky Vaccines.

Over the past 35 years, the term "leaky vaccine" has gained widespread use in both mathematical modeling and epidemiologic methods for evaluating vaccines. Here we present a short history as we recall it of how the term was coined in the context of the history of sporozoite malaria vaccines that were thought to be possibly leaky in the 1980s. We draw a contrast with the all-or-none vaccine mechanism and review a few consequences for study design and population level effects. We invite readers to contribute information covering the time period preceding our memories in the 1980s as we may have overlooked something.

SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a highly vulnerable population of Brazil: a household cohort study.

Background: Household transmission studies seek to understand the transmission dynamics of a pathogen by estimating the risk of infection from household contacts and community exposures. We estimated within/extra-household SARS-CoV-2 infection risk and associated factors in a household cohort study in one of the most vulnerable neighbourhoods in Rio de Janeiro city. Methods: Individuals ≥1 years-old with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 in the past 30 days (index cases) and household members aged ≥1 year were enrolled and followed at 14 and 28 days (study period November/2020-December/2021). RT-PCR testing, COVID-19 symptoms, and SARS-CoV-2 serologies were ascertained in all visits. Chain binomial household transmission models were fitted using data from 2024 individuals (593 households). Findings: Extra-household infection risk was 74.2% (95% credible interval [CrI] 70.3-77.8), while within-household infection risk was 11.4% (95% CrI 5.7-17.2). Participants reporting having received two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine had lower extra-household (68.9%, 95% CrI 57.3-77.6) and within-household (4.1%, 95% CrI 0.4-16.6) infection risk. Within-household infection risk was higher among participants aged 10-19 years, from overcrowded households, and with low family income. Contrastingly, extra-household infection risk was higher among participants aged 20-29 years, unemployed, and public transportation users. Interpretation: Our study provides important insights into COVID-19 household/community transmission in a vulnerable population that resided in overcrowded households and who struggled to adhere to lockdown policies and social distancing measures. The high extra-household infection risk highlights the extreme social vulnerability of this population. Prioritising vaccination of the most socially vulnerable could protect these individuals and reduce widespread community transmission. Funding: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, CNPq, FAPERJ, Royal Society, Instituto Serrapilheira, FAPESP.

Differential Type-I Interferon Response in Buffy Coat Transcriptome of Individuals Infected with SARS-CoV-2 Gamma and Delta Variants.

The innate immune system is the first line of defense against pathogens such as the acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The type I-interferon (IFN) response activation during the initial steps of infection is essential to prevent viral replication and tissue damage. SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 can inhibit this activation, and individuals with a dysregulated IFN-I response are more likely to develop severe disease. Several mutations in different variants of SARS-CoV-2 have shown the potential to interfere with the immune system. Here, we evaluated the buffy coat transcriptome of individuals infected with Gamma or Delta variants of SARS-CoV-2. The Delta transcriptome presents more genes enriched in the innate immune response and Gamma in the adaptive immune response. Interactome and enriched promoter analysis showed that Delta could activate the INF-I response more effectively than Gamma. Two mutations in the N protein and one in the nsp6 protein found exclusively in Gamma have already been described as inhibitors of the interferon response pathway. This indicates that the Gamma variant evolved to evade the IFN-I response. Accordingly, in this work, we showed one of the mechanisms that variants of SARS-CoV-2 can use to avoid or interfere with the host Immune system.

Integrated NMR and MS Analysis of the Plasma Metabolome Reveals Major Changes in One-Carbon, Lipid, and Amino Acid Metabolism in Severe and Fatal Cases of COVID-19.

Brazil has the second-highest COVID-19 death rate worldwide, and Rio de Janeiro is among the states with the highest rate in the country. Although vaccine coverage has been achieved, it is anticipated that COVID-19 will transition into an endemic disease. It is concerning that the molecular mechanisms underlying clinical evolution from mild to severe disease, as well as the mechanisms leading to long COVID-19, are not yet fully understood. NMR and MS-based metabolomics were used to identify metabolites associated with COVID-19 pathophysiology and disease outcome. Severe COVID-19 cases (n = 35) were enrolled in two reference centers in Rio de Janeiro within 72 h of ICU admission, alongside 12 non-infected control subjects. COVID-19 patients were grouped into survivors (n = 18) and non-survivors (n = 17). Choline-related metabolites, serine, glycine, and betaine, were reduced in severe COVID-19, indicating dysregulation in methyl donors. Non-survivors had higher levels of creatine/creatinine, 4-hydroxyproline, gluconic acid, and N-acetylserine, indicating liver and kidney dysfunction. Several changes were greater in women; thus, patients' sex should be considered in pandemic surveillance to achieve better disease stratification and improve outcomes. These metabolic alterations may be useful to monitor organ (dys) function and to understand the pathophysiology of acute and possibly post-acute COVID-19 syndromes.

Impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake among gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men in urban centers in Brazil: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Men who have sex with men (MSM) in Brazil remain disproportionately affected by HIV. We estimated the potential incidence reduction by five years with increased uptake of publicly-funded, daily, oral tenofovir/emtricitabine (TDF/FTC) for HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among MSM using the Cost Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications microsimulation model. We used national data, local studies, and literature to inform model parameters for three cities: Rio de Janeiro, Salvador, and Manaus. RESULTS: In Rio de Janero, a PrEP intervention achieving 10% uptake within 60 months would decrease incidence by 2.3% whereas achieving 60% uptake within 24 months would decrease incidence by 29.7%; results were similar for Salvador and Manaus. In sensitivity analyses, decreasing mean age at PrEP initiation from 33 to 21 years increased incidence reduction by 34%; a discontinuation rate of 25% per year decreased it by 12%. CONCLUSION: Targeting PrEP to young MSM and minimizing discontinuation could substantially increase PrEP's impact.

Time-dependent vaccine efficacy estimation quantified by a mathematical model.

In this paper we calculate the variation of the estimated vaccine efficacy (VE) due to the time-dependent force of infection resulting from the difference between the moment the Clinical Trial (CT) begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity. Using a simple mathematical model we tested the hypothesis that the time difference between the moment the CT begins and the peak in the outbreak intensity determines substantially different values for VE. We exemplify the method with the case of the VE efficacy estimation for one of the vaccines against the new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2.

Big data technology in infectious diseases modeling, simulation, and prediction after the COVID-19 outbreak.

After the outbreak of COVID-19, the interaction of infectious disease systems and social systems has challenged traditional infectious disease modeling methods. Starting from the research purpose and data, researchers improved the structure and data of the compartment model or used agents and artificial intelligence based models to solve epidemiological problems. In terms of modeling methods, the researchers use compartment subdivision, dynamic parameters, agent-based model methods, and artificial intelligence related methods. In terms of factors studied, the researchers studied 6 categories: human mobility, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), ages, medical resources, human response, and vaccine. The researchers completed the study of factors through modeling methods to quantitatively analyze the impact of social systems and put forward their suggestions for the future transmission status of infectious diseases and prevention and control strategies. This review started with a research structure of research purpose, factor, data, model, and conclusion. Focusing on the post-COVID-19 infectious disease prediction simulation research, this study summarized various improvement methods and analyzes matching improvements for various specific research purposes.

Sphingolipids and acylcarnitines are altered in placentas from women with gestational diabetes mellitus.

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is the most common medical complication of pregnancy and a severe threat to pregnant people and offspring health. The molecular origins of GDM, and in particular the placental responses, are not fully known. The present study aimed to perform a comprehensive characterisation of the lipid species in placentas from pregnancies complicated with GDM using high-resolution MS lipidomics, with a particular focus on sphingolipids and acylcarnitines in a semi-targeted approach. The results indicated that despite no major disruption in lipid metabolism, placentas from GDM pregnancies showed significant alterations in sphingolipids, mostly lower abundance of total ceramides. Additionally, very long-chain ceramides and sphingomyelins with twenty-four carbons were lower, and glucosylceramides with sixteen carbons were higher in placentas from GDM pregnancies. Semi-targeted lipidomics revealed the strong impact of GDM on the placental acylcarnitine profile, particularly lower contents of medium and long-chain fatty-acyl carnitine species. The lower contents of sphingolipids may affect the secretory function of the placenta, and lower contents of long-chain fatty acylcarnitines is suggestive of mitochondrial dysfunction. These alterations in placental lipid metabolism may have consequences for fetal growth and development.

Quantifying protocols for safe school activities.

By the peak of COVID-19 restrictions on April 8, 2020, up to 1.5 billion students across 188 countries were affected by the suspension of physical attendance in schools. Schools were among the first services to reopen as vaccination campaigns advanced. With the emergence of new variants and infection waves, the question now is to find safe protocols for the continuation of school activities. We need to understand how reliable these protocols are under different levels of vaccination coverage, as many countries have a meager fraction of their population vaccinated, including Uganda where the coverage is about 8%. We investigate the impact of face-to-face classes under different protocols and quantify the surplus number of infected individuals in a city. Using the infection transmission when schools were closed as a baseline, we assess the impact of physical school attendance in classrooms with poor air circulation. We find that (i) resuming school activities with people only wearing low-quality masks leads to a near fivefold city-wide increase in the number of cases even if all staff is vaccinated, (ii) resuming activities with students wearing good-quality masks and staff wearing N95s leads to about a threefold increase, (iii) combining high-quality masks and active monitoring, activities may be carried out safely even with low vaccination coverage. These results highlight the effectiveness of good mask-wearing. Compared to ICU costs, high-quality masks are inexpensive and can help curb the spreading. Classes can be carried out safely, provided the correct set of measures are implemented.

Prevalence and predictors of anti-SARS-CoV-2 serology in a highly vulnerable population of Rio de Janeiro: A population-based serosurvey.

Background: COVID-19 serosurveys allow for the monitoring of the level of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and support data-driven decisions. We estimated the seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in a large favela complex in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Methods: A population-based panel study was conducted in Complexo de Manguinhos (16 favelas) with a probabilistic sampling of participants aged ≥1 year who were randomly selected from a census of individuals registered in primary health care clinics that serve the area. Participants answered a structured interview and provided blood samples for serology. Multilevel regression models (with random intercepts to account for participants' favela of residence) were used to assess factors associated with having anti-S IgG antibodies. Secondary analyses estimated seroprevalence using an additional anti-N IgG assay. Findings: 4,033 participants were included (from Sep/2020 to Feb/2021, 22 epidemic weeks), the median age was 39·8 years (IQR:21·8-57·7), 61% were female, 41% were mixed-race (Pardo) and 23% Black. Overall prevalence was 49·0% (95%CI:46·8%-51·2%) which varied across favelas (from 68·3% to 31·4%). Lower prevalence estimates were found when using the anti-N IgG assay. Odds of having anti-S IgG antibodies were highest for young adults, and those reporting larger household size, poor adherence to social distancing and use of public transportation. Interpretation: We found a significantly higher prevalence of anti-S IgG antibodies than initially anticipated. Disparities in estimates obtained using different serological assays highlight the need for cautious interpretation of serosurveys estimates given the heterogeneity of exposure in communities, loss of immunological biomarkers, serological antigen target, and variant-specific test affinity. Funding: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq), Fundação de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (FAPERJ), the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme, Royal Society, Serrapilheira Institute, and FAPESP.

Population-level seropositivity trend for SARS-Cov-2 in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the evolution of seropositivity in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, through 10 consecutive surveys conducted between April 2020 and April 2021. METHODS: Nine cities covering all regions of the State were studied, 500 households in each city. One resident in each household was randomly selected for testing. In survey rounds 1-8 we used the rapid WONDFO SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Test (Wondfo Biotech Co., Guangzhou, China). In rounds 9-10, we used a direct ELISA test that identifies IgG to the viral S protein (S-UFRJ). In terms of social distancing, individuals were asked three questions, from which we generated an exposure score using principal components analysis. RESULTS: Antibody prevalence in early April 2020 was 0.07%, increasing to 10.0% in February 2021, and to 18.2% in April 2021. In round 10, self-reported whites showed the lowest seroprevalence (17.3%), while indigenous individuals presented the highest (44.4%). Seropositivity increased by 40% when comparing the most with the least exposed. CONCLUSIONS: The proportion of the population already infected by SARS-Cov-2 in the state is still far from any perspective of herd immunity and the infection affects population groups in very different levels.

Challenges of evaluating and modelling vaccination in emerging infectious diseases.

Outbreaks of emerging pathogens pose unique methodological and practical challenges for the design, implementation, and evaluation of vaccine efficacy trials. Lessons learned from COVID-19 highlight the need for innovative and flexible study design and application to quickly identify promising candidate vaccines. Trial design strategies should be tailored to the dynamics of the specific pathogen, location of the outbreak, and vaccine prototypes, within the regional socioeconomic constraints. Mathematical and statistical models can assist investigators in designing infectious disease clinical trials. We introduce key challenges for planning, evaluating, and modelling vaccine efficacy trials for emerging pathogens.

Smart testing and critical care bed sharing for COVID-19 control.

During the early months of the current COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing measures effectively slowed disease transmission in many countries in Europe and Asia, but the same benefits have not been observed in some developing countries such as Brazil. In part, this is due to a failure to organise systematic testing campaigns at nationwide or even regional levels. To gain effective control of the pandemic, decision-makers in developing countries, particularly those with large populations, must overcome difficulties posed by an unequal distribution of wealth combined with low daily testing capacities. The economic infrastructure of these countries, often concentrated in a few cities, forces workers to travel from commuter cities and rural areas, which induces strong nonlinear effects on disease transmission. In the present study, we develop a smart testing strategy to identify geographic regions where COVID-19 testing could most effectively be deployed to limit further disease transmission. By smart testing we mean the testing protocol that is automatically designed by our optimization platform for a given time period, knowing the available number of tests, the current availability of ICU beds and the initial epidemiological situation. The strategy uses readily available anonymised mobility and demographic data integrated with intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy data and city-specific social distancing measures. Taking into account the heterogeneity of ICU bed occupancy in differing regions and the stages of disease evolution, we use a data-driven study of the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo as an example to show that smart testing strategies can rapidly limit transmission while reducing the need for social distancing measures, even when testing capacity is limited.

Turnover of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages Shaped the Pandemic and Enabled the Emergence of New Variants in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

In the present study, we provide a retrospective genomic epidemiology analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. We gathered publicly available data from GISAID and sequenced 1927 new genomes sampled periodically from March 2021 to June 2021 from 91 out of the 92 cities of the state. Our results showed that the pandemic was characterized by three different phases driven by a successive replacement of lineages. Interestingly, we noticed that viral supercarriers accounted for the overwhelming majority of the circulating virus (>90%) among symptomatic individuals in the state. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance also revealed the emergence and spread of two new variants (P.5 and P.1.2), firstly reported in this study. Our findings provided important lessons learned from the different epidemiological aspects of the SARS-CoV-2 dynamic in Rio de Janeiro. Altogether, this might have a strong potential to shape future decisions aiming to improve public health management and understanding mechanisms underlying virus dispersion.

SARS-CoV-2 testing disparities across geographical regions from a large metropolitan area in Brazil: Results from a web-based survey among individuals interested in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines.

After more than a year since the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) disease 2019 or COVID-19 has reached the status of a global pandemic, the number of COVID-19 cases continues to rise in Brazil. As no effective treatment been approved yet, only mass vaccination can stop the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and end the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple COVID-19 vaccine candidates are under development and some are currently in use. This study aims to describe the characteristics of individuals who have registered in an online platform to participate in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines. Additionally, participants' characteristics according to age and presence of comorbidities associated with severe COVID-19 and differences of SARS-CoV-2 testing across different geographical areas/neighborhoods are provided. This was a cross-sectional web-based study conducted between September and December/2020, aiming to reach individuals aged ≥18 years who live in Rio de Janeiro metropolitan area, Brazil. Among 21,210 individuals who completed the survey, 20,587 (97.1%) were willing to participate in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines. Among those willing to participate, 57.8% individuals were aged 18-59 years and had no comorbidity, 33.7% were aged 18-59 years and had at least one comorbidity, and 8.6% were aged ≥ 60 years regardless the presence of any comorbidity. Almost half (42.6%) reported ever testing for COVID-19, and this proportion was lower among those aged ≥ 60 years (p < 0.001). Prevalence of positive PCR results was 16.0%, higher among those aged 18-59 years (p < 0.009). Prevalence of positive antibody result was 10.0%, with no difference across age and comorbidity groups. Participants from areas/neighborhoods with higher Human Development Index (HDI) reported ever testing for SARS-CoV-2 more frequently than those from lower HDI areas. Interest to participate in clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines candidates in Rio de Janeiro was significantly high. The online registry successfully reached out a large number of individuals with diverse sociodemographic, economic and clinical backgrounds.

High prevalence of symptoms among Brazilian subjects with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2.

Since the beginning of the pandemic of COVID-19, there has been a widespread assumption that most infected persons are asymptomatic. Using data from the recent wave of the EPICOVID19 study, a nationwide household-based survey including 133 cities from all states of Brazil, we estimated the proportion of people with and without antibodies for SARS-CoV-2 who were asymptomatic, which symptoms were most frequently reported, number of symptoms and the association with socio-demographic characteristics. We tested 33,205 subjects using a rapid antibody test previously validated. Information was collected before participants received the test result. Out of 849 (2.7%) participants positive for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, only 12.1% (95% CI 10.1-14.5) reported no symptoms, compared to 42.2% (95% CI 41.7-42.8) among those negative. The largest difference between the two groups was observed for changes in smell/taste (56.5% versus 9.1%, a 6.2-fold difference). Changes in smell/taste, fever and body aches were most likely to predict positive tests as suggested by recursive partitioning tree analysis. Among individuals without any of these three symptoms, only 0.8% tested positive, compared to 18.3% of those with both fever and changes in smell or taste. Most subjects with antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 are symptomatic, even though most present only mild symptoms.

COVID-19 and social distancing among children and adolescents in Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies and the adherence to measures of social distancing in children and adolescents studied in three national surveys conducted in Brazil between May-June 2020. METHODS: Three national serological surveys were conducted in 133 sentinel cities located in all 27 Federative Units. Multistage probability sampling was used to select 250 individuals per city. The total sample size in age ranges 0-9 and 10-19 years old are of 4,263 and 8,024 individuals, respectively. Information on children or adolescents was gathered with a data collection app, and a rapid point-of-case test for SARS-CoV-2 was conducted on a finger prick blood sample. RESULTS: The adjusted prevalence of antibodies was 2.9% (2.2-3.6) among children 0-9 years, 2.2% (1.8-2.6) among adolescents 10-19 years, and 3.0% (2.7-3.3) among adults 20+years. Prevalence of antibodies was higher among poor children and adolescents compared to those of rich families. Adherence to social distancing measures was seen in 72.4% (71.9-73.8) of families with children, 60.8% (59.6-61.9) for adolescents, and 57.4% (56.9-57.8) for adults. For not leaving the house except for essential matters the proportions were 81.7% (80.5-82.9), 70.6% (69.6-61.9), and 65.1% (64.7-65.5), respectively. Among children and adolescents, social distancing was strongly associated with socioeconomic status, being much higher in the better-off families. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 showed comparable levels among children, adolescents, and adults. Adherence to social distancing measures was more prevalent in children, followed by adolescents. There were important socioeconomic differences in the adherence to social distancing among children and adolescents.

Slow Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Southern Brazil Over a 6-Month Period: Report on 8 Sequential Statewide Serological Surveys Including 35 611 Participants.

Objectives. To evaluate the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) over 6 months in the Brazilian State of Rio Grande do Sul (population 11.3 million), based on 8 serological surveys. Methods. In each survey, 4151 participants in round 1 and 4460 participants in round 2 were randomly sampled from all state regions. We assessed presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 using a validated lateral flow point-of-care test; we adjusted figures for the time-dependent decay of antibodies. Results. The SARS-CoV-2 antibody prevalence increased from 0.03% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.00%, 0.34%; 1 in every 3333 individuals) in mid-April to 1.89% (95% CI = 1.36%, 2.54%; 1 in every 53 individuals) in early September. Prevalence was similar across gender and skin color categories. Older adults were less likely to be infected than younger participants. The proportion of the population who reported leaving home daily increased from 21.4% (95% CI = 20.2%, 22.7%) to 33.2% (95% CI = 31.8%, 34.5%). Conclusions. SARS-CoV-2 infection increased slowly during the first 6 months in the state, differently from what was observed in other Brazilian regions. Future survey rounds will continue to document the spread of the pandemic.