Temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association with mortality: findings from the China Kadoorie Biobank study in Jiangsu Province.

Objectives: The characteristics of multimorbidity in the Chinese population are currently unclear. We aimed to determine the temporal change in multimorbidity prevalence, clustering patterns, and the association of multimorbidity with mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Methods: This study analyzed data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study performed in Wuzhong District, Jiangsu Province. A total of 53,269 participants aged 30-79 years were recruited between 2004 and 2008. New diagnoses of 15 chronic diseases and death events were collected during the mean follow-up of 10.9 years. Yule's Q cluster analysis method was used to determine the clustering patterns of multimorbidity. A Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity with mortalities. Results: The overall multimorbidity prevalence rate was 21.1% at baseline and 27.7% at the end of follow-up. Multimorbidity increased more rapidly during the follow-up in individuals who had a higher risk at baseline. Three main multimorbidity patterns were identified: (i) cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), (ii) respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), and (iii) mental, kidney and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorders, chronic kidney disease, and rheumatoid arthritis). There were 3,433 deaths during the follow-up. The mortality risk increased by 24% with each additional disease [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.24, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.20-1.29]. Compared with those without multimorbidity at baseline, both cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity were associated with increased mortality from all causes and four major chronic diseases. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity was additionally associated with mortality from cardiovascular diseases and diabetes, with HRs of 2.64 (95% CI = 2.19-3.19) and 28.19 (95% CI = 14.85-53.51), respectively. Respiratory multimorbidity was associated with respiratory disease mortality, with an HR of 9.76 (95% CI = 6.22-15.31). Conclusion: The prevalence of multimorbidity has increased substantially over the past decade. This study has revealed that cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity have significantly increased mortality rates. These findings indicate the need to consider high-risk populations and to provide local evidence for intervention strategies and health management in economically developed regions.

Proteomic Analyses in Diverse Populations Improved Risk Prediction and Identified New Drug Targets for Type 2 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: Integrated analyses of plasma proteomics and genetic data in prospective studies can help assess the causal relevance of proteins, improve risk prediction, and discover novel protein drug targets for type 2 diabetes (T2D). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We measured plasma levels of 2,923 proteins using Olink Explore among ∼2,000 randomly selected participants from China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) without prior diabetes at baseline. Cox regression assessed associations of individual protein with incident T2D (n = 92 cases). Proteomic-based risk models were developed with discrimination, calibration, reclassification assessed using area under the curve (AUC), calibration plots, and net reclassification index (NRI), respectively. Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses using cis-protein quantitative trait loci identified in a genome-wide association study of CKB and UK Biobank for specific proteins were conducted to assess their causal relevance for T2D, along with colocalization analyses to examine shared causal variants between proteins and T2D. RESULTS: Overall, 33 proteins were significantly associated (false discovery rate <0.05) with risk of incident T2D, including IGFBP1, GHR, and amylase. The addition of these 33 proteins to a conventional risk prediction model improved AUC from 0.77 (0.73-0.82) to 0.88 (0.85-0.91) and NRI by 38%, with predicted risks well calibrated with observed risks. MR analyses provided support for the causal relevance for T2D of ENTR1, LPL, and PON3, with replication of ENTR1 and LPL in Europeans using different genetic instruments. Moreover, colocalization analyses showed strong evidence (pH4 > 0.6) of shared genetic variants of LPL and PON3 with T2D. CONCLUSIONS: Proteomic analyses in Chinese adults identified novel associations of multiple proteins with T2D with strong genetic evidence supporting their causal relevance and potential as novel drug targets for prevention and treatment of T2D.

Association between epigenetic age and type 2 diabetes mellitus or glycemic traits: A longitudinal twin study.

Epigenetic clocks based on DNA methylation have been known as biomarkers of aging, including principal component (PC) clocks representing the degree of aging and DunedinPACE representing the pace of aging. Prior studies have shown the associations between epigenetic aging and T2DM, but the results vary by epigenetic age metrics and people. This study explored the associations between epigenetic age metrics and T2DM or glycemic traits, based on 1070 twins (535 twin pairs) from the Chinese National Twin Registry. It also explored the temporal relationships of epigenetic age metrics and glycemic traits in 314 twins (157 twin pairs) who participated in baseline and follow-up visits after a mean of 4.6 years. DNA methylation data were used to calculate epigenetic age metrics, including PCGrimAge acceleration (PCGrimAA), PCPhenoAge acceleration (PCPhenoAA), DunedinPACE, and the longitudinal change rate of PCGrimAge/PCPhenoAge. Mixed-effects and cross-lagged modelling assessed the cross-sectional and temporal relationships between epigenetic age metrics and T2DM or glycemic traits, respectively. In the cross-sectional analysis, positive associations were identified between DunedinPACE and glycemic traits, as well as between PCPhenoAA and fasting plasma glucose, which may be not confounded by shared genetic factors. Cross-lagged models revealed that glycemic traits (fasting plasma glucose, HbA1c, and TyG index) preceded DunedinPACE increases, and TyG index preceded PCGrimAA increases. Glycemic traits are positively associated with epigenetic age metrics, especially DunedinPACE. Glycemic traits preceded the increases in DunedinPACE and PCGrimAA. Lowering the levels of glycemic traits may reduce DunedinPACE and PCGrimAA, thereby mitigating age-related comorbidities.

Predictive value of 8-year blood pressure measures in intracerebral hemorrhage risk over 5 years.

AIMS: The relationships between long-term blood pressure (BP) measures and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), as well as their predictive ability on ICH, were unclear. We aimed to investigate the independent associations of multiple BP measures with subsequent 5-year ICH risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction. METHODS: We included 12,398 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who completed three surveys every four to five years. The following long-term BP measures were calculated: mean, minimum, maximum, standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and cumulative BP exposure (cumBP). Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between these measures and ICH. The potential incremental value of these measures in ICH risk prediction was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI), and relative integrated discrimination improvement (rIDI). RESULTS: The hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of incident ICH associated with per SD increase in cumSBP and cumDBP were 1.62 (1.25, 2.10) and 1.59 (1.23, 2.07), respectively. When cumBP was added to the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model, the C-statistic change was 0.009 (-0.001, 0.019), the cNRI was 0.267 (0.070, 0.464), and the rIDI was 18.2% (5.8%, 30.7%). Further subgroup analyses revealed a consistent increase in cNRI and rIDI in men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes. Other long-term BP measures showed no statistically significant associations with incident ICH and generally did not improve model performance. CONCLUSION: The nearly 10-year cumBP was positively associated with an increased 5-year risk of ICH and could significantly improve risk reclassification for the ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement.

This prospective cohort study of Chinese adults investigated the independent associations of multiple blood pressure (BP) measures with subsequent 5-year intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) risk, as well as the incremental value of these measures over a single-point BP measurement in ICH risk prediction. The cumulative BP exposure (cumBP) was positively associated with subsequent 5-year risk of ICH, independent of the recent single-point SBP and DBP levels.The cumBP could improve the risk reclassification of the conventional 5-year ICH risk prediction model that included single-point BP measurement for all participants, as well as for men, rural residents, and participants without diabetes.

Dietary factors and patterns in relation to risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis in Chinese: A prospective study of 0.5 million people.

BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence on the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset ulcerative colitis (UC) in Chinese adults. AIMS: To investigate the associations of dietary factors and patterns with risk of later-onset UC in Chinese. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank cohort study recruited 512,726 participants aged 30-79. Dietary habits were assessed using food frequency questionnaires. Dietary patterns were derived by factor analysis with a principal component method. Cox regression analysis was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 312 cases of newly diagnosed UC were documented (median age of diagnosis 60.1 years). Egg consumption was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for daily vs. never or rarely: 2.29 [95% CI: 1.26-4.16]), while spicy food consumption was inversely associated with risk of UC (HR: 0.63 [0.45-0.88]). The traditional northern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of wheat and low intake of rice, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR for highest vs. lowest quartile of score: 2.79 [1.93-4.05]). The modern dietary pattern, characterised by high intake of animal-origin foods and fruits, was associated with higher risk of UC (HR: 2.48 [1.63-3.78]). Population attributable fraction was 13.04% (7.71%-19.11%) for daily/almost daily consumption of eggs and 9.87% (1.94%-18.22%) for never/rarely consumption of spicy food. CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of evaluating dietary factors and patterns in the primary prevention of later-onset UC in Chinese adults.

Association of lifestyle with reduced stroke risk in 41 314 individuals with diabetes: Two prospective cohort studies in China.

AIM: To investigate the associations of individual and combined healthy lifestyle factors (HLS) with the risk of stroke in individuals with diabetes in China. METHODS: This prospective analysis included 41 314 individuals with diabetes [15 191 from the Comprehensive Research on the Prevention and Control of the Diabetes (CRPCD) project and 26 123 from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study]. Associations of lifestyle factors, including cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, diet, body shape and sleep duration, with the risk of stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and ischaemic stroke (IS) were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: During median follow-up periods of 8.02 and 9.05 years, 2499 and 4578 cases of stroke, 2147 and 4024 of IS, and 160 and 728 of ICH were documented in individuals with diabetes in the CRPCD and CKB cohorts, respectively. In the CRPCD cohort, patients with ≥5 HLS had a 14% lower risk of stroke (hazard ratio (HR): 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.75-0.98) than those with ≤2 HLS. In the CKB cohort, the adjusted HR (95% CI) for patients with ≥5 HLS were 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for stroke, 0.74 (0.66-0.83) for IS, and 0.57 (0.42-0.78) for ICH compared with those with ≤2 HLS. The pooled adjusted HR (95% CI) comparing patients with ≥5 HLS versus ≤2 HLS was 0.79 (0.69-0.92) for stroke, 0.80 (0.68-0.93) for IS, and 0.60 (0.46-0.78) for ICH. CONCLUSIONS: Maintaining a healthy lifestyle was associated with a lower risk of stroke, IS and ICH among individuals with diabetes.

Reproductive factors and risk of lung cancer among 300,000 Chinese female never-smokers: evidence from the China Kadoorie Biobank study.

BACKGROUND: Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality among Chinese females despite the low smoking prevalence among this population. This study assessed the roles of reproductive factors in lung cancer development among Chinese female never-smokers. METHODS: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited over 0.5 million Chinese adults (0.3 million females) from 10 geographical areas in China in 2004-2008 when information on socio-demographic/lifestyle/environmental factors, physical measurements, medical history, and reproductive history collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer by reproductive factors. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, birth year, and geographical region were performed. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 11 years, 2,284 incident lung cancers occurred among 282,558 female never-smokers. Ever oral contraceptive use was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02-1.33) with a significant increasing trend associated with longer duration of use (p-trend = 0.03). Longer average breastfeeding duration per child was associated with a decreased risk (0.86, 0.78-0.95) for > 12 months compared with those who breastfed for 7-12 months. No statistically significant association was detected between other reproductive factors and lung cancer risk. CONCLUSION: Oral contraceptive use was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in Chinese female never-smokers. Further studies are needed to assess lung cancer risk related to different types of oral contraceptives in similar populations.

Associations of traditional cardiovascular risk factors with 15-year blood pressure change and trajectories in Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: How traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are related to long-term blood pressure change (BPC) or trajectories remain unclear. We aimed to examine the independent associations of these factors with 15-year BPC and trajectories in Chinese adults. METHODS: We included 15 985 participants who had attended three surveys, including 2004-2008 baseline survey, and 2013-2014 and 2020-2021 resurveys, over 15 years in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We measured systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP), height, weight, and waist circumference (WC). We asked about the sociodemographic characteristics and lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol drinking, intake of fresh vegetables, fruits, and red meat, and physical activity, using a structured questionnaire. We calculated standard deviation (SD), cumulative blood pressure (cumBP), coefficient of variation (CV), and average real variability (ARV) as long-term BPC proxies. We identified blood pressure trajectories using the latent class growth model. RESULTS: Most baseline sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics were associated with cumBP. After adjusting for other characteristics, the cumSBP (mmHg × year) increased by 116.9 [95% confidence interval (CI): 111.0, 122.7] for every 10 years of age. The differences of cumSBP in heavy drinkers of ≥60 g pure alcohol per day and former drinkers were 86.7 (60.7, 112.6) and 48.9 (23.1, 74.8) compared with less than weekly drinkers. The cumSBP in participants who ate red meat less than weekly was 29.4 (12.0, 46.8) higher than those who ate red meat daily. The corresponding differences of cumSBP were 127.8 (120.7, 134.9) and 70.2 (65.0, 75.3) for BMI per 5 kg/m2 and WC per 10 cm. Most of the findings of other BPC measures by baseline characteristics were similar to the cumBP, but the differences between groups were somewhat weaker. Alcohol drinking was associated with several high-risk trajectories of SBP and DBP. Both BMI and WC were independently associated with all high-risk blood pressure trajectories. CONCLUSIONS: Several traditional CVD risk factors were associated with unfavorable long-term BPC or blood pressure trajectories in Chinese adults.

A genome-wide association study based on the China Kadoorie Biobank identifies genetic associations between snoring and cardiometabolic traits.

Despite the high prevalence of snoring in Asia, little is known about the genetic etiology of snoring and its causal relationships with cardiometabolic traits. Based on 100,626 Chinese individuals, a genome-wide association study on snoring was conducted. Four novel loci were identified for snoring traits mapped on SLC25A21, the intergenic region of WDR11 and FGFR, NAA25, ALDH2, and VTI1A, respectively. The novel loci highlighted the roles of structural abnormality of the upper airway and craniofacial region and dysfunction of metabolic and transport systems in the development of snoring. In the two-sample bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis, higher body mass index, weight, and elevated blood pressure were causal for snoring, and a reverse causal effect was observed between snoring and diastolic blood pressure. Altogether, our results revealed the possible etiology of snoring in China and indicated that managing cardiometabolic health was essential to snoring prevention, and hypertension should be considered among snorers.

A wide landscape of morbidity and mortality risk associated with marital status in 0.5 million Chinese men and women: a prospective cohort study.

Background: A comprehensive depiction of long-term health impacts of marital status is lacking. Methods: Sex-stratified phenome-wide association analyses (PheWAS) of marital status (living with vs. without a spouse) were performed using baseline (2004-2008) and follow-up information (ICD10-coded events till Dec 31, 2017) from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). We estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) to evaluate the associations of marital status with morbidity risks of phenome-wide significant diseases or sex-specific top-10 death causes in China documented in 2017. Additionally, the association between marital status and mortality risks among participants with major chronic diseases at baseline was assessed. Findings: During up to 11.1 years of the median follow-up period, 1,946,380 incident health events were recorded among 210,202 men and 302,521 women aged 30-79. Marital status was found to have phenome-wide significant associations with thirteen diseases among men (p < 9.92 × 10-5) and nine diseases among women (p < 9.33 × 10-5), respectively. After adjusting for all disease-specific covariates in the final model, participants living without a spouse showed increased risks of schizophrenia, schizotypal and delusional disorders (aHR [95% CI]: 2.55, [1.83-3.56] for men; 1.49, [1.13-1.97] for women) compared with their counterparts. Additional higher risks in overall mental and behavioural disorder (1.31, 1.13-1.53), cardiovascular disease (1.07, 1.04-1.10) and cancer (1.06, 1.00-1.12) were only observed among men without a spouse, whereas women living without a spouse were at lower risks of developing genitourinary diseases (0.89, 0.85-0.93) and injury & poisoning (0.93, 0.88-0.97). Among 282,810 participants with major chronic diseases at baseline, 39,166 deaths were recorded. Increased mortality risks for those without a spouse were observed in 12 of 21 diseases among male patients and one of 23 among female patients. For patients with any self-reported disease at baseline, compared with those living with a spouse, the aHRs (95% CIs) of mortality risk were 1.29 (1.24-1.34) and 1.04 (1.00-1.07) among men and women without a spouse (pinteraction<0.0001), respectively. Interpretation: Long-term associations of marital status with morbidity and mortality risks are diverse among middle-aged Chinese adults, and the adverse impacts due to living without a spouse are more profound among men. Marital status may be an influential factor for health needs. Funding: The National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, and the UK Wellcome Trust.

Association of sex hormones with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An observational and Mendelian randomization study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Sex-specific associations of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and bioavailable testosterone (BAT) with NAFLD remain indeterminate. We aimed to explore observational and genetically determined relationships between each hormone and NAFLD. METHODS: We included 187 395 men and 170 193 women from the UK Biobank. Linear and nonlinear Cox regression models and Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis were used to test the associations. RESULTS: During 12.49 years of follow-up, 2209 male and 1886 female NAFLD cases were documented. Elevated SHBG levels were linearly associated with a lower risk of NAFLD in women (HR (95% CI), .71 (.63, .79)), but not in men (a "U" shape, pnon-linear < .001). Higher BAT levels were associated with a lower NAFLD risk in men (HR (95% CI), .81 (.71, .93)) but a higher risk in women (HR (95% CI): 1.25 (1.15, 1.36)). Genetically determined SHBG and BAT levels were linearly associated with NAFLD risk in women (OR (95% CI): .57 (.38, .87) and 2.21 (1.41, 3.26) respectively); in men, an "L-shaped" MR association between SHBG levels and NAFLD risk was found (pnon-linear = .016). The bidirectional MR analysis further revealed the effect of NAFLD on SHBG and BAT levels in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: Consistently, linear associations of lower SHBG and higher BAT levels with increased NAFLD risk were both conventionally and genetically found in women, while in men, SHBG acts in a nonlinear manner. In addition, NAFLD may affect SHBG and BAT levels.

Association between health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tier for cardiovascular diseases in China: a prospective cohort study.

Background: Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers. Methods: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009-2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics. Findings: About 64-68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27-29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas. Interpretation: Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Secondhand smoke exposure can increase the risk of first ischemic stroke: A 10.7-year prospective cohort study in China.

INTRODUCTION: Passive smoking is considered a major public health issue in China. Prospective evidence regarding the link between secondhand smoke (SHS) and ischemic stroke in China is scarce. METHODS: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) study in Liuzhou City recruited 50,174 participants during 2004-2008. Of these 30,456 never-smokers were included in our study. The median follow-up period was 10.7 years. The incidence of ischemic stroke was obtained through the China Disease Surveillance Points (DSP) system and the Health Insurance (HI) database. Cox proportional risk models were used to evaluate the association between SHS exposure and ischemic stroke. RESULTS: During 320,678 person-years of follow-up, there were 2059 patients with ischemic stroke observed and the incidence of ischemic stroke was 6.42 per thousand person-years. Participants exposed to SHS daily faced a 21 % higher risk of ischemic stroke (HR = 1.21, 95 %CI: 1.09-1.34) compared to those exposed to SHS less than once a week. Subgroup analyses revealed that daily SHS exposure was linked to heightened risk of ischemic stroke among women, non-employed, and non-weekly tea drinkers. CONCLUSIONS: Daily SHS exposure was associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke. Proactive tobacco control strategies are necessary to decrease the risk of ischemic stroke in never smokers.

Causal association between snoring and stroke: a Mendelian randomization study in a Chinese population.

Background: Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke. Methods: Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI <24.0 kg/m2), as well as multivariable MR (MVMR), were performed to control for potential pleiotropy from BMI. In addition, the inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was applied to estimate the causal association with genetic variants identified in CKB GWAS. Findings: Positive associations were found between snoring and total stroke, hemorrhagic stroke (HS), and ischemic stroke (IS). With GRS of CKB, the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) were 1.56 (1.15, 2.12), 1.50 (0.84, 2.69), 2.02 (1.36, 3.01), and the corresponding HRs (95% CIs) using GRS of UKB were 1.78 (1.30, 2.43), 1.94 (1.07, 3.52), and 1.74 (1.16, 2.61). The associations remained stable in the MR among the non-obese group, MVMR analysis, and MR analysis using the IVW method. Interpretation: This study suggests that, among Chinese adults, genetically predicted snoring could increase the risk of total stroke, IS, and HS, and the causal effect was independent of BMI. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation Hong Kong, UK Wellcome Trust, National Key R&D Program of China, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology.

Spicy food consumption reduces the risk of ischaemic stroke: a prospective study.

Previous studies revealed that consuming spicy food reduced mortality from CVD and lowered stroke risk. However, no studies reported the relationship between spicy food consumption, stroke types and dose­response. This study aimed to further explore the association between the frequency of spicy food intake and the risk of stroke in a large prospective cohort study. In this study, 50 174 participants aged 30­79 years were recruited. Spicy food consumption data were collected via a baseline survey questionnaire. Outcomes were incidence of any stroke, ischaemic stroke (IS) and haemorrhagic stroke (HS). Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association between the consumption of spicy food and incident stroke. Restricted cubic spline analysis was used to examine the dose­response relationship. During the median 10·7-year follow-up, 3967 strokes were recorded, including 3494 IS and 516 HS. Compared with those who never/rarely consumed spicy food, those who consumed spicy food monthly, 1­2 d/week and 3­5 d/week had hazard ratio (HR) of 0·914 (95 % CI 0·841, 0·995), 0·869 (95 % CI 0·758, 0·995) and 0·826 (95 % CI 0·714, 0·956) for overall stroke, respectively. For IS, the corresponding HR) were 0·909 (95 % CI 0·832, 0·994), 0·831 (95 % CI 0·718, 0·962) and 0·813 (95 % CI 0·696, 0·951), respectively. This protective effect showed a U-shaped dose­response relationship. For obese participants, consuming spicy food ≥ 3 d/week was negatively associated with the risk of IS. We found the consumption of spicy food was negatively associated with the risk of IS and had a U-shaped dose­response relationship with risk of IS. Individuals who consumed spicy food 3­5 d/week had a significantly lowest risk of IS.

Diabetes and chronic kidney disease in Chinese adults: a population-based cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Cohort evidence of the association of diabetes mellitus (DM) with chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. Previous studies often describe patients with kidney disease and diabetes as diabetic kidney disease (DKD) or CKD, ignoring other subtypes. The present study aimed to assess the prospective association of diabetes status (no diabetes, pre-diabetes, screened diabetes, previously diagnosed controlled/uncontrolled diabetes with/without antidiabetic treatment) and random plasma glucose (RPG) with CKD risk (including CKD subtypes) among Chinese adults. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The present study included 472 545 participants from the China Kadoorie Biobank, using baseline information on diabetes and RPG. The incident CKD and its subtypes were collected through linkage with the national health insurance system during follow-up. Cox regression models were used to calculate the HR and 95% CI. RESULTS: During 11.8 years of mean follow-up, 5417 adults developed CKD. Screened plus previously diagnosed diabetes was positively associated with CKD (HR=4.52, 95% CI 4.23 to 4.83), DKD (HR=33.85, 95% CI 29.56 to 38.76), and glomerulonephritis (HR=1.66, 95% CI 1.40 to 1.97). In those with previously diagnosed diabetes, participants with uncontrolled diabetes represented higher risks of CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis compared with those with controlled RPG. The risk of DKD was found to rise in participants with pre-diabetes and increased with the elevated RPG level, even in those without diabetes. CONCLUSIONS: Among Chinese adults, diabetes was positively associated with CKD, DKD, and glomerulonephritis. Screen-detected and uncontrolled DM had a high risk of CKD, and pre-diabetes was associated with a greater risk of DKD, highlighting the significance of lifelong glycemic management.

Development and evaluation of a polygenic risk score for lung cancer in never-smoking women: A large-scale prospective Chinese cohort study.

The proportion of lung cancer in never smokers is rising, especially among Asian women, but there is no effective early detection tool. Here, we developed a polygenic risk score (PRS), which may help to identify the population with higher risk of lung cancer in never-smoking women. We first performed a large GWAS meta-analysis (8595 cases and 8275 controls) to systematically identify the susceptibility loci for lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women and then generated a PRS using GWAS datasets. Furthermore, we evaluated the utility and effectiveness of PRS in an independent Chinese prospective cohort comprising 55 266 individuals. The GWAS meta-analysis identified eight known loci and a novel locus (5q11.2) at the genome-wide statistical significance level of P < 5 × 10-8 . Based on the summary statistics of GWAS, we derived a polygenic risk score including 21 variants (PRS-21) for lung cancer in never-smoking women. Furthermore, PRS-21 had a hazard ratio (HR) per SD of 1.29 (95% CI = 1.18-1.41) in the prospective cohort. Compared with participants who had a low genetic risk, those with an intermediate (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.00-1.72) and high (HR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.56-2.80) genetic risk had a significantly higher risk of incident lung cancer. The addition of PRS-21 to the conventional risk model yielded a modest significant improvement in AUC (0.697 to 0.711) and net reclassification improvement (24.2%). The GWAS-derived PRS-21 significantly improves the risk stratification and prediction accuracy for incident lung cancer in never-smoking Asian women, demonstrating the potential for identification of high-risk individuals and early screening.

Association of physical activity with risk of chronic kidney disease in China: A population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Information on the association between physical activity (PA) and the risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) is limited. We aimed to explore the associations of total, domain-specific, and intensity-specific PA with CKD and its subtypes in China. METHODS: The study included 475,376 adults from the China Kadoorie Biobank aged 30-79 years during 2004-2008 at baseline. An interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the information about PA, which was quantified as metabolic equivalent of task hours per day (MET-h/day) and categorized into 4 groups based on quartiles. Cox regression was used to analyze the association between PA and CKD risk. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 5415 incident CKD cases were documented, including 1159 incident diabetic kidney disease (DKD) cases and 362 incident hypertensive nephropathy (HTN) cases. Total PA was inversely associated with CKD risk, with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR, 95% confidence interval (95%CI)) of 0.83 (0.75-0.92) for incident CKD in the highest quartile of total PA as compared with participants in the lowest quartile. Similar results were observed for risk of DKD and HTN, and the corresponding HRs (95%CIs) were 0.75 (0.58-0.97) for DKD risk and 0.56 (0.37-0.85) for HTN risk. Increased nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA were significantly associated with a decreased risk of CKD, with HRs (95%CIs) of 0.80 (0.73-0.88), 0.85 (0.77-0.94), and 0.85 (0.76-0.95) in the highest quartile, respectively. CONCLUSION: PA, including nonoccupational PA, low-intensity PA, and moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA, was inversely associated with the risk of CKD, including DKD, HTN, and other CKD, and such associations were dose dependent.

Association of psychological distress and DNA methylation: A 5-year longitudinal population-based twin study.

AIM: To identify the psychological distress (PD)-associated 5'-cytosine-phosphate-guanine-3' sites (CpGs), and investigate the temporal relationship between dynamic changes in DNA methylation (DNAm) and PD. METHODS: This study included 1084 twins from the Chinese National Twin Register (CNTR). The CNTR conducted epidemiological investigations and blood withdrawal twice in 2013 and 2018. These included twins were used to perform epigenome-wide association studies (EWASs) and to validate the previously reported PD-associated CpGs selected from previous EWASs in PubMed, Embase, and the EWAS catalog. Next, a cross-lagged study was performed to examine the temporality between changes in DNAm and PD in 308 twins who completed both 2013 and 2018 surveys. RESULTS: The EWAS analysis of our study identified 25 CpGs. In the validation analysis, 741 CpGs from 29 previous EWASs on PD were selected for validation, and 101 CpGs were validated to be significant at a false discovery rate <0.05. The cross-lagged analysis found a unidirectional path from PD to DNAm at 14 CpGs, while no sites showed significance from DNAm to PD. CONCLUSIONS: This study identified and validated PD-related CpGs in a Chinese twin population, and suggested that PD may be the cause of changes in DNAm over time. The findings provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms underlying PD pathophysiology.