RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) can be easily measured in an observer-independent way, but lacks robust population-based validation in terms of fatal combined with nonfatal outcomes. METHOD: To address this issue, we studied 4251 Chinese randomly recruited Gaoyou County (54.1% women; mean age, 52.1). RESULTS: In the whole study population, mean values were 102.4âmmHg for mean arterial pressure (MAP), 51.1âmmHg for pulse pressure, and 14.8âm/s for baPWV. Over 4.4 years (median), 74 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event and 44 a stroke. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression, standardized hazard ratios expressing the risk of a composite cardiovascular endpoint were 1.77 (95% confidence interval, 1.43-2.20), 1.37 (1.14-1.64) and 1.50 (1.26-1.78) for MAP, PP and baPWV, respectively; the corresponding hazard ratios for stroke were 1.82 (1.39-2.38), 1.39 (1.12-1.74) and 1.53 (1.25-1.89). baPWV did not add to the prediction of cardiovascular events or stroke by MAP (hazard ratios for baPWV, 1.25 and 1.27, respectively; Pâ≥â0.053) but refined models including PP (hazard ratios, 1.42 and 1.45; Pâ≤â0.0033). The optimized baPWV threshold, obtained by maximizing Youden's index (16.7âm/s), increased the integrated discrimination improvement over and beyond MAP (+1.27%; Pâ=â0.021) and PP (+1.37%; Pâ=â0.038) for the cardiovascular outcome, but not stroke, and increased the net reclassification improvement for both endpoints (≥42.2%; Pâ≤â0.004). CONCLUSION: With fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular and cerebrovascular endpoints as outcome, baPWV marginally increases risk stratification over and beyond MAP, but is a better predictor than PP. A threshold of 16.7âm/s might be used in Chinese populations.