Feasibility analysis of a prevention programme for patients with early chronic disease using A mathematical model.

The increasing prevalence of the chronic disease is of considerable concern to health-care organisations. Prevention programmes to patients with early chronic disease have the potential to improve individual health and quality of life through disease avoidance or delay and to save the medical cost of the health care system. Due to the limited budget in healthcare this study seeks to analyse the feasibility of a programme prior to implementation. A mathematical model is developed to determine incidence reduction rate at which the underlying cost break-even can be achieved; consequently, the programme would be feasible. We show the existence and uniqueness of the underlying incidence reduction and establish the feasibility frontier concerning the trade-offs between intervention effective period and incidence reduction rate. We use a diabetes prevention programme to demonstrate the efficiency and advantage of the model. The proposed model would inform decision-makers scientific principles in determining an intervention for implementation.

Singapore's COVID-19 "circuit breaker" interventions: A description of individual-level adoptions of precautionary behaviours.

INTRODUCTION: Effectiveness of COVID-19 control interventions relies significantly on behavioural modifications of its population. Differing adoption rates impacts subsequent COVID-19 control. Hence, positive and sustained behavioural modification is essential for disease control. We describe the adoption rates of behavioural modifications for Singapore's "circuit-breaker" (CB), the national public health response to the COVID-19 crisis, among the general population in the community. METHODS: We conducted an interrupted-time series study using retrospective secondary data. We compared the proportion of Singaporeans who reported adopting specific behaviour modifications before, during and after CB. Behaviours of interest were working from home, performing hand hygiene, using face mask in public, and avoiding crowded areas. We compared change in incidence rates for community COVID-19 cases among the general population across the same time periods. RESULTS: There was an increase in face mask usage (+46.9%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 34.9-58.8, P<0.01) and working from home (+20.4%, 95% CI 11.7-29.2, P<0.01) during CB than before CB in Singapore. Other self-reported behaviours showed no statistically significant difference. Change in daily incidence rates of community COVID-19 cases decreased from additional 0.73 daily case before CB to 0.55 fewer case per day during CB (P<0.01). There was no significant difference among all behaviour adoption rates after CB. Daily incidence of community cases continued to decrease by 0.11 case daily after CB. CONCLUSION: Community incidence of COVID-19 in Singapore decreased during CB and remained low after CB. Use of face masks and social-distancing compliance through working from home increased during CB. However, it is unlikely to influence other sources of COVID-19 such as imported cases or within foreign worker dormitories.

Estimating Transmission Parameters for COVID-19 Clusters by Using Symptom Onset Data, Singapore, January-April 2020.

We estimated the generation interval distribution for coronavirus disease on the basis of serial intervals of observed infector-infectee pairs from established clusters in Singapore. The short mean generation interval and consequent high prevalence of presymptomatic transmission requires public health control measures to be responsive to these characteristics of the epidemic.

Healthcare workers in Singapore infected with COVID-19: 23 January-17 April 2020.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the characteristics of healthcare workers (HCWs) infected with COVID-19 and to examine their sources of exposure. METHODS: A descriptive cross-sectional study using data extracted from the centralized disease notification system comprising individuals confirmed with COVID-19 in Singapore between 23 January and 17 April 2020. Occupation of HCWs was categorized into six categories. Their job nature was classified into "frontline" or "back-end" based on the frequency of direct patient contact, and source of exposure was classified as family/household, social interaction or workplace. Chi-square and median tests were used to identify differences between categorical groups and sample medians, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 88 (1.7%) HCWs were identified from 5,050 cases. Their median age was 35 years. Chinese and Indians constituted 42.0% and 31.8%, respectively, and 43.2% were foreigners. The majority (63.6%) was serving at frontlines handling patient-facing duties, 15.9% were doctors, 11.4% were nurses and 44.3% were ancillary staff. About 81.8% acquired the infection locally, of which 40.3% did not have a clearly identifiable source of exposure. Exposure from the family/household was most common (27.8%), followed by workplace (16.7%) and social interaction (15.3%). All HCWs were discharged well with no mortality; three (3.4%) were ever admitted to intensive care unit and required increased care. CONCLUSION: Healthcare workers accounted for a small proportion of COVID-19 cases in Singapore with favourable outcomes. The possibility of transmission resulting from family/household exposure and social interactions highlights the need to maintain strict vigilance and precautionary measures at all times beyond the workplace.

Timeliness of Infectious Diseases Referral and Inappropriate Antibiotic Usage Post-Referral in an Asian Tertiary Hospital.

Infectious diseases (ID) specialists advise on complicated infections and are advocates for the interventions of antibiotic stewardship programs (ASP). Early referral to ID specialists has been shown to improve patient outcomes; however, not all referrals to ID specialists are made in a timely fashion. A retrospective cross-sectional study of all referrals to ID specialists in a Singaporean tertiary hospital was conducted from January 2016 to January 2018. The following quality indicators were examined: early referral to ID specialists (within 48 h of admission) and ASP intervention for inappropriate antibiotic usage, even after referral to ID specialists. Chi-square was used for univariate analysis and logistic regression for multivariate analysis. A total of 6490 referrals over the 2-year period were analysed; of those, 36.7% (2384/6490) were from surgical disciplines, 47.0% (3050/6490) were from medical disciplines, 14.2% (922/6490) from haematology/oncology and 2.1% (134/6490) were made to the transplant ID service. Haematology/oncology patients and older patients (aged ≥ 60 years) had lower odds of early referral to ID specialists but higher odds of subsequent ASP intervention for inappropriate antibiotic usage, despite prior referral to an ID specialist. Elderly patients and haematology/oncology patients can be referred to ID specialists earlier and their antimicrobial regimens further optimised, perhaps by fostering closer cooperation between ID specialists and primary physicians.

The price of personal mobility: burden of injury and mortality from personal mobility devices in Singapore - a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Personal mobility devices (PMDs) like skate-scooters, electric bicycles (e-bikes) or motorised scooters (e-scooters) have become widely available globally. There are several studies describing the rising incidence of injury from such devices. The aim of our study was to examine PMD user factors between motorised (MotPMDs) vs non-motorised PMDs (NonPMDs) as risk factors for severe injury and the need for hospital admission. METHODS: We analysed de-identified National Trauma Registry data (2015 to 2017) from all public sector hospitals in Singapore for patients aged 12 and above presenting to emergency departments with PMD-related injuries. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for the primary outcome of interest (higher injury severity, defined as Injury Severity Score / ISS > =9), and the secondary outcome of interest (need for hospital admission). Additional subgroup analysis was conducted comparing only scooters (manual vs electric), the most common sub-type of PMD in our study. RESULTS: Of the 614 patients in our study, majority were male (74%), median age 33 years, with 136 (22%) sustaining injuries with ISS > =9; 185 (30%) admitted [median stay length 3 days (IQR: 1-6)] and 93 (15%) required surgery. MotPMDs were more common (480, 78%), with e-scooters being the most common motorised device (393, 64%). There were 6 deaths, all in MotPMD users. On both univariate and multivariable regression, MotPMD users [OR 3.82, 95% CI 1.51-12.9, p = 0.01] and older users (> = 60 years) [OR 9.47, 95% CI 2.45-62.9, p = 0.004] were more likely to sustain injuries with ISS > =9, and more likely to need admission (MotPMD users [OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.04-3.29, p = 0.045], age > =60 years [OR 4.72, 95% CI 1.86-13.0, p = 0.002]). CONCLUSION: MotPMDs tripled the risk of severe injury and doubled the risk of requiring hospitalisation, compared to NonPMDs, likely due to higher travelling speeds. Increased age was also associated with severe injury and requiring hospitalisation.

Predictors of Change in Functional Outcome at six months and twelve months after Severe Injury: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

Background: There is increasing focus on long-term survival, function and quality-of-life for trauma patients. There are few studies tracking longitudinal changes in functional outcome over time. The goal of our study was to compare the Glasgow Outcome Scale-Extended (GOSE) at 6 months and 12 months in blunt trauma survivors with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of more than 15. Methods: Using the Singapore National Trauma Registry 2011-2013, patients with 6-month GOSE and 12-month GOSE scores were analysed. Patients were grouped into three categories-those with the same score at 6 months and 12 months, an improvement in score, and a worse score at 12 months. Ordinal regression was used to identify risk factors for improved score. Patients with missing scores at either 6 months or 12 months were excluded. Results: We identified 478 patients: 174 had an improvement in score, 233 stayed the same, and 71 had worse scores at 12 months compared to 6 months. On univariate ordinal regression, the following variables were associated with same or better function at 12-months compared to 6-months: male gender, being employed pre-injury, thoracic Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) of 3 or more, anatomical polytrauma (AIS of 3 or more in 2 or more body regions), and road traffic injury mechanism. Older age, low fall, increasing Charlson comorbidity scores, new injury severity score, and head and neck AIS of 3 or more were associated with worse function at 12 months compared to 6 months. ISS and revised trauma score were not significant predictors on univariate or multivariable analysis.On multivariable ordinal regression, motor vehicle mechanism (OR 2.78, 1.51-5.12, p = 0.001) was associated with improved function, while male gender (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.02-1.82, p = 0.039) predicted improved function at 12 months. Conclusions: Females experience worse functional outcomes at 12 months, potentially due to majority of female injuries being low falls in the elderly. In contrast, motor vehicle injury patients had better functional outcomes at 12 months. Additional interventional strategies for high-risk groups should be explored.

Surveillance and clinical characterization of influenza in a university cohort in Singapore.

BACKGROUND: Southeast Asia is a potential locus for the emergence of novel influenza strains. However, information on influenza within the region is limited. OBJECTIVES: This study was to determine the proportion of influenza-like illness (ILI) caused by influenza A and B viruses in a university cohort in Singapore, identify important distinctive clinical features of influenza infection and potential factors associated with influenza infection compared with other causes of ILI. METHODOLOGY: A surveillance study was conducted from 2007 to 2009, at the University Health and Wellness Centre, National University of Singapore (NUS). Basic demographic information and nasopharyngeal swabs were collected from consenting students and staff with ILI, with Influenza A and B identified by both culture and molecular methods. RESULTS: Proportions of influenza A and B virus infections in subjects with ILI were 153/500 (30.6%) and 11/500 (2.2%) respectively. The predominant subtype was A/H1N1, including both the seasonal strain (20/153) and the pandemic strain (72/153). The clinical symptom of fever was more common in subjects with laboratory confirmed influenza than other ILIs. On-campus hostel residence and being a student (compared with staff) were associated with increased risk of laboratory confirmed influenza A/H1N1 2009 infection. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a baseline prevalence of influenza infection within young adults in Singapore in a university setting. Potential risk factors, such as hostel residence, were identified, allowing for more targeted infection control measures in the event of a future influenza pandemic.