The impact of maternal health on child's health outcomes during the first five years of child's life in countries with health systems similar to Australia: A systematic review.

INTRODUCTION: The first five years of life is an important developmental period that establishes the foundation for future health and well-being. Mothers play a primary role in providing emotional and physical nourishment during early childhood. This systematic review aims to explore the association between maternal health and child health in the first five years of the child's life. MATERIALS AND METHODS: As primary aims, we systematically synthesised published evidence relating to the first five years of life for associations between maternal health exposures (mental, physical and Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) and child health outcomes (physical health, mental health, HRQoL and Health Service Use (HSU) /cost). As a secondary aim, we explored how the above associations vary between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged populations. The search was limited to studies that published and collected data from 2010 to 2022. The systematic review was specific to countries with similar health systems to Australia. The search was conducted in MEDLINE, CINAHL, APA PsycINFO, GLOBAL HEALTH, and EMBASE databases. The quality of the included studies was assessed by The Effective Public Health Practice Project (EPHPP) tool. RESULTS: Thirteen articles were included in the final synthesis from the identified 9439 articles in the primary search. Six (46%) explored the association between maternal mental health and child's physical health, two (15%) explored maternal and child's physical health, one (8%) explored maternal and child's mental health, one (8%) explored maternal physical health and child's HRQoL, and three (23%) explored maternal mental health and child's HSU. We found an association between maternal health and child health (physical and mental) and HSU outcomes but no association between maternal health and child's overall HRQoL. The results for disadvantaged communities did not show any difference from the general population. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Our review findings show that maternal health influences the child's health in the first five years. However, the current evidence is limited, and the findings were primarily related to a specific maternal or child's health condition. There was no evidence of associations of child health outcomes in healthy mothers. There is an extensive research gap investigating maternal health exposures and child outcomes in quality of life and overall health.

A systematic review of health state utility values and psychometric performance of generic preference-based instruments for children and adolescents with mental health problems.

AIMS: This paper aims to systematically identify reported health state utility values (HSUVs) in children and adolescents with mental health problems (MHPs) aged less than 25 years; to summarise the techniques used to elicit HSUVs; and to examine the psychometric performance of the identified multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUIs) used in this space. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines. Peer-reviewed studies published in English, reporting HSUVs for children and adolescents with MHPs using direct or indirect valuation methods were searched in six databases. RESULTS: We found 38 studies reporting HSUVs for 12 types of MHPs across 12 countries between 2005 and October 2021. Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and depression are the most explored MHPs. Disruptive Behaviour Disorder was associated with the lowest reported HSUVs of 0.06 while cannabis use disorder was associated with the highest HSUVs of 0.88. Indirect valuation method through the use of MAUIs (95% of included studies) was the most frequently used approach, while direct valuation methods (Standard Gamble, Time Trade-Off) were only used to derive HSUVs in ADHD. This review found limited evidence of the psychometric performance of MAUIs used in children and adolescents with MHPs. CONCLUSION: This review provides an overview of HSUVs of various MHPs, the current practice to generate HSUVs, and the psychometric performance of MAUIs used in children and adolescents with MHPs. It highlights the need for more rigorous and extensive psychometric assessments to produce evidence on the suitability of MAUIs used in this area.

The association between eating disorders and mental health: an umbrella review.

OBJECTIVE: There have been an increasing number of systematic reviews indicating the association between eating disorders (ED), including its risk factors, with mental health problems such as depression, suicide and anxiety. The objective of this study was to conduct an umbrella review of these reviews and provide a top-level synthesis of the current evidence in this area. METHOD: A systematic search was performed using four databases (MEDLINE Complete, APA PyscInfo, CINAHL Complete and EMBASE). The inclusion criteria were systematic reviews (with or without meta-analysis), published in the English language between January 2015 and November 2022. The quality of the studies was assessed using the Joanna Briggs Institute Critical Appraisal tools for use of JBI Systematic reviews. RESULTS: A total of 6,537 reviews were identified, of which 18 reviews met the inclusion criteria, including 10 reviews with meta-analysis. The average quality assessment score for the included reviews was moderate. Six reviews investigated the association between ED and three specific mental health problems: (a) depression and anxiety, (b) obsessive-compulsive symptoms and (c) social anxiety. A further 3 reviews focused on the relationship between ED and attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) while 2 reviews focused on ED and suicidal-related outcomes. The remaining 7 reviews explored the association between ED and bipolar disorders, personality disorders, and non-suicidal self-injury. Depression, social anxiety and ADHD are likely to have a stronger strength of association with ED relative to other mental health problems. DISCUSSION: Mental health problems such as depression, social anxiety and ADHD were found to be more prevalent among people suffering from eating disorders. Further research is necessary to understand the mechanism and health impacts of potential comorbidities of ED.

This review aimed to investigate the association between eating disorders (ED) and mental health problems. A review of existing systematic reviews was conducted to provide a top-level synthesis of the current evidence in this area. Our review found a total of 18 systematic reviews, which investigated the association between ED and a wide range of mental health problems. These conditions include depression and anxiety, obsessive-compulsive symptoms, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), social anxiety, personality disorders, suicidal-related outcomes, bipolar disorders and non-suicidal self-injury. Depression, social anxiety and ADHD are likely to have a stronger strength of association with ED relative to other mental health problems.

Economic evaluation of the Communicating Healthy Beginnings Advice by Telephone trial for early childhood obesity prevention.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to conduct an economic evaluation of the Communicating Healthy Beginnings Advice by Telephone (CHAT) trial to prevent childhood obesity. METHODS: Cost-effectiveness analyses were conducted for the telephone and short message service (SMS) delivery of Healthy Beginnings advice, compared with usual care, which included child health services unrelated to Healthy Beginnings. Costs were valued in 2018 Australian dollars, and costs and outcomes were discounted at 5% per year. The costs of upscaling both delivery modes to all yearly births in New South Wales, Australia, were estimated and compared with the original Healthy Beginnings home-visiting intervention. RESULTS: At child age 2 years, the SMS delivery was more cost-effective ($5154 per unit BMI and $979 per 0.1 BMI z score units avoided) than the telephone delivery ($10,665 per unit BMI and $2017 per 0.1 BMI z score units avoided). The costs of upscaling the SMS ($7.64 million) and the telephone delivery modes ($37.65 million) were lower than the home-visiting intervention ($108.45 million). CONCLUSIONS: SMS delivery of Healthy Beginnings advice was more cost-effective than telephone delivery but less cost-effective than the original home-visiting approach ($4230 per unit BMI avoided, as calculated in an earlier study). Both the SMS and telephone interventions were more affordable than the home-visiting approach.

Prevention of high body mass index and eating disorders: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Eating disorders (EDs) and high body mass index (BMI) are two important public health issues with significant health and cost impacts. The aim of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to establish whether interventions are effective in preventing both issues. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched up to 10 May 2021. Studies were included if they were randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials that evaluated a preventive intervention (regardless of its aim to prevent ED, high BMI or both) and reported both EDs and BMI-related outcomes. Both narrative synthesis and meta-analysis were used to synthesise the results. Publication bias was also investigated. RESULTS: Fifty-four studies were included for analysis. The primary aim of the studies was ED prevention (n = 23), high BMI prevention (n = 21) and both ED and high BMI prevention (n = 10). Meta-analysis results indicated that preventive interventions had a significant effect on several ED outcomes including dieting, shape and weight concerns, body dissatisfaction, negative affect, eating disorder symptoms and internalization, with effect sizes ranging from - 0.16 (95% CI - 0.27, - 0.06) to - 0.61 (95% CI - 0.29, - 0.04). Despite several studies that demonstrated positive impacts on BMI, there was no significant effect on BMI-related measures in the meta-analysis. The risk of publication bias was low for the majority of the pooled effect results. CONCLUSION: Preventive interventions were effective for either high BMI or EDs. However, there is limited evidence to show that current preventive interventions were effective in reducing both outcomes. Further research is necessary to explore the risk factors that are shared by these weight-related disorders as well as effective prevention interventions. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: Level I: systematic review.

Relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declines in mortality: an international comparative study of 1·95 million events in 80·4 million people in four countries.

BACKGROUND: Myocardial infarction mortality has declined since the 1970s, but contemporary drivers of this trend remain unexplained. The aim of this study was to compare the contribution of trends in event rates and case fatality to declines in myocardial infarction mortality in four high-income jurisdictions from 2002-15. METHODS: Linked hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained from New South Wales (NSW), Australia; Ontario, Canada; New Zealand; and England, UK. People aged between 30 years and 105 years were included in the study. Age-adjusted trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality were estimated from Poisson and binomial regression models, and their relative contribution to trends in myocardial infarction mortality calculated. FINDINGS: 1 947 895 myocardial infarction events from a population of 80·4 million people were identified in people aged 30 years or older. There were significant declines in myocardial infarction mortality, event rates, and case fatality in all jurisdictions. Age-standardised myocardial infarction event rates were highest in New Zealand (men 893/100 000 person-years in 2002, 536/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 482/100 000 person-years in 2002, 271/100 000 person-years in 2015) and lowest in England (men 513/100 000 person-years in 2002, 382/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 238/100 000 person-years in 2002, 173/100 000 person-years in 2015). Annual age-adjusted reductions in event rates ranged from -2·6% (95% CI -3·0 to -2·3) in men in England to -4·3% (-4·4 to -4·1) in women in Ontario. Age-standardised case fatality was highest in England in 2002 (48%), but declined at a greater rate than in the other jurisdictions (men -4·1%/year, 95% CI -4·2 to -4·0%; women -4·4%/year, -4·5 to -4·3%). Declines in myocardial infarction mortality rates ranged from -6·1%/year to -7·6%/year. Event rate declines were the greater contributor to myocardial infarction mortality reductions in Ontario (69·4% for men and women), New Zealand (men 68·4%; women 67·5%), and NSW women (60·1%), whereas reductions in case fatality were the greater contributor in England (60% in men and women) and for NSW men (54%). There were greater contributions from case fatality than event rate reductions in people younger than 55 years in all jurisdictions, with contributions to mortality declines varying by country in those aged 55-74 years. Event rate declines had a greater impact than changes in case fatality in those aged 75 years and older. INTERPRETATION: While the mortality burden of myocardial infarction has continued to fall across these four populations, the relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declining mortality varied between jurisdictions, including by age and sex. Understanding the causes of this variation will enable optimisation of prevention and treatment efforts. FUNDING: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Australian Research Council; Health Research Council of New Zealand; Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canada; National Institute for Health Research, UK.

Modelling the potential health and economic benefits of reducing population sitting time in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Strong evidence indicates that excessive time spent sitting (sedentary behaviour) is detrimentally associated with multiple chronic diseases. Sedentary behaviour is prevalent among adults in Australia and has increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimating the potential health benefits and healthcare cost saving associated with reductions in population sitting time could be useful for the development of public health initiatives. METHODS: A sedentary behaviour model was developed and incorporated into an existing proportional, multi-state, life table Markov model (ACE-Obesity Policy model). This model simulates the 2019 Australian population (age 18 years and above) and estimates the incidence, prevalence and mortality of five diseases associated with sedentary behaviour (type 2 diabetes, stroke, endometrial, breast and colorectal cancer). Key model inputs included population sitting time estimates from the Australian National Health Survey 2014-2015, healthcare cost data from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2015) and relative risk estimates assessed by conducting literature reviews and meta-analyses. Scenario analyses estimated the potential change in disease incidence as a result of changes in population sitting time. This, in turn, resulted in estimated improvements in long term health outcomes (Health-adjusted life years (HALYs)) and healthcare cost-savings. RESULTS: According to the model, if all Australian adults sat no more than 4 h per day, the total HALYs gained would be approximately 17,211 with health care cost savings of approximately A$185 million over one year. Under a more feasible scenario, where sitting time was reduced in adults who sit 4 or more hours per day by approximately 36 min per person per day (based on the results of the Stand Up Victoria randomised controlled trial), potential HALYs gained were estimated to be 3,670 and healthcare cost saving could reach A$39 million over one year. CONCLUSIONS: Excessive sedentary time results in considerable population health burden in Australia. This paper describes the development of the first Australian sedentary behaviour model that can be used to predict the long term consequences of interventions targeted at reducing sedentary behaviour through reductions in sitting time. These estimates may be used by decision makers when prioritising healthcare resources and investing in preventative public health initiatives.

Cost-effectiveness of scaling up a whole-of-community intervention: The Romp & Chomp early childhood obesity prevention intervention.

BACKGROUND: Given the high prevalence of early childhood overweight and obesity, more evidence is required to better understand the cost-effectiveness of community-wide interventions targeting obesity prevention in children aged 0-5 years. OBJECTIVES: To assess the cost-effectiveness of the Romp & Chomp community-wide early childhood obesity prevention intervention if delivered across Australia in 2018 from a funder perspective, against a no-intervention comparator. METHODS: Intervention costs were estimated in 2018 Australian dollars. The annual Early Prevention of Obesity in Childhood micro-simulation model estimated body mass index (BMI) trajectories to age 15 years, based on end of trial data at age 3.5 years. Results from modelled cost-effectiveness analyses were presented as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): cost per BMI unit avoided, and cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained at age 15 years. RESULTS: All Australian children aged 0-5 years (n = 1 906 075) would receive the intervention. Total estimated intervention cost and annual cost per participant were AUD178 million and AUD93, respectively, if implemented nationally. The ICERs were AUD1 126 per BMI unit avoided and AUD26 399 per QALY gained (64% probability of being cost-effective measured against a AUD50 000 per QALY threshold). CONCLUSIONS: Romp & Chomp has a fair probability of being cost-effective if delivered at scale.

Trends in Ischaemic Heart Disease in Australia, 2001-2015: A Comparison of Urban and Rural Populations.

OBJECTIVE: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) is a major source of disease burden worldwide. Recent trends show incidence is declining but it is unclear whether the trends are similar in urban and rural populations. This study examines the trends of IHD events (i.e. hospitalisations and deaths) in New South Wales, Australia by rurality. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of linked administrative data for hospitalisation and death records across NSW between 2001 and 2015. Participants were NSW residents aged 15-105 years who died or were hospitalised with a principal diagnosis of IHD. The main outcome measures were annual age-standardised mortality and hospitalisations for IHD by calendar year and rurality. RESULTS: Between 2001 and 2015, age-standardised annual IHD hospitalisations declined in urban areas from 587 to 260 and in rural areas from 766 to 395 per 100,000 people. The annual decline in hospitalisations was greater in urban than rural areas, with Annual Percentage Change (APC) of -5.6% (95% CI, -6.1%, -5.0%) and -4.5% (95% CI, -5.0%, -4.0%), respectively (p=0.012). Ischaemic heart disease mortality declined at a similar rate in urban and rural regions (APC -7.6% and -6.7% per annum, p=0.28). Absolute inequalities in IHD deaths persisted until 2015 when there were 49 (urban) and 70 (rural) IHD deaths per 100,000 people. CONCLUSIONS: Ischaemic heart disease hospitalisations and mortality have declined considerably between 2001 and 2015 in both rural and urban areas, yet inequalities persist, suggesting more intensive preventive efforts are required to further reduce the burden of IHD in rural populations.

Cost-Effectiveness of a Novel Sleep Intervention in Infancy to Prevent Overweight in Childhood.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to determine, from a health funder perspective, whether a sleep intervention, delivered in infancy, either alone or in combination with food, activity, and breastfeeding advice was cost-effective compared with usual care. METHODS: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted alongside the Prevention of Overweight in Infancy (POI) randomized controlled trial for outcomes at 5 years and cost-effectiveness was modeled to age 15 years using the Early Prevention of Obesity in Childhood microsimulation model. Intervention costs for the Sleep (n = 192), Combination (n = 196), and control (n = 209) groups were determined in 2018 Australian dollars. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were determined for BMI outcomes at 5 and 15 years, with the primary outcome being quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) modeled over 15 years. RESULTS: The average costs of the Sleep and Combination interventions were $184 and $601 per child, respectively. The ICER for the Sleep intervention was $18,125 per QALY gained, with a 74% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per QALY. The ICER for the Combination intervention was $94,667 per QALY gained with a 23% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: The POI Sleep intervention, without additional advice, was a low-cost and cost-effective approach to reducing childhood obesity. Sleep modification programs offer a very promising approach to obesity prevention in children.

Satisfaction and acceptability of paediatric weight management services amongst parents and carers: A mixed-methods study.

To optimize treatment for children and adolescents with obesity and minimize attrition, consideration of parents' engagement and satisfaction with paediatric weight management services is crucial. The aim of this study was to conduct a mixed-methods evaluation of parental acceptability and satisfaction of available paediatric weight management services in New South Wale, Australia's most populous state. Parents/carers referred to one of six weight management services between March 2018 and July 2019 were invited to participate. The study involved: (a) surveys and one-on-one phone interviews to assess overall satisfaction, acceptability of service design and delivery, treatment expectations, and service accessibility, strengths, weaknesses and areas of improvement; (b) a survey to determine costs to families of attending the service; and (c) a survey assessing families' reasons for treatment non-attendance. N = 146 participants completed the survey to assess service satisfaction and acceptability and 37 of these also participated in phone interviews. Ninety-three per cent were satisfied with the overall care they received and patient weight loss/cessation of weight gain and improvement in the family's overall health were rated as the most valued changes. Content analysis of interviews highlighted participants' recognition of positive changes achieved during treatment and appreciation of the resources provided, and the encouraging/empathetic nature of staff. The most common reasons for treatment attrition were difficulty in accessing the weight management service and flexibility of appointment times. Findings from this study can be utilized in future planning and development of paediatric weight management services to facilitate integrated, responsive and effective care of children and adolescents with obesity.

Weight status and health-related quality of life during childhood and adolescence: effects of age and socioeconomic position.

BACKGROUND: Overweight and obesity in children is associated with poor health-related quality of life (HRQoL), but the nuances of this relationship across different age and socio-demographic groups are not well-established. The aim of this study is to examine how the association between weight status and HRQoL changes with age and socioeconomic position (SEP) throughout childhood and adolescence. METHODS: We used data from the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), a cohort study in which children were interviewed biennially from ages 4 to 17 years over seven waves of data. Measurements of HRQoL (using PedsQLTM), body mass index (BMI), and socio-demographic characteristics were collected at each interview. Of the 4983 children recruited into the study, we included data from 4083 children (a total of 24,446 observations). We used generalised estimating equations to assess whether age and SEP modified the association between weight status and HRQoL, after controlling for sex, long-term medical condition, language spoken to child and maternal smoking status. RESULTS: Age was a significant modifier of the association between weight status and HRQoL, with adjustment for known predictors of HRQoL (P < 0.001). At age 4, children with obesity had, on average, a 0.99 (95% CI 0.02-1.96) point lower PedsQL total score than children at healthy weight. This difference became clinically important by age 9 at 4.50 (95% CI 3.86-5.13) points and increased to 6.69 (95% CI 5.74-7.64) points by age 17. There was no evidence that SEP modified the relationship between weight status and HRQoL (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that the relationship between overweight and obesity status and poor HRQoL is strengthened with increasing age through childhood and adolescence, but is not affected by SEP. Paediatricians, researchers and carers of children with obesity should acknowledge HRQoL outcomes, particularly for older children and adolescents.

Socioeconomic inequalities in obesity: modelling future trends in Australia.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a model to predict future socioeconomic inequalities in body mass index (BMI) and obesity. DESIGN: Microsimulation modelling using BMI data from adult participants of Australian Health Surveys, and published data on the relative risk of mortality in relation to BMI and socioeconomic position (SEP), based on education. SETTING: Australia. PARTICIPANTS: 74 329 adults, aged 20 and over from Australian Health Surveys, 1995-2015. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcomes were BMI trajectories and obesity prevalence by SEP for four birth cohorts, born 10 years apart, centred on 1940, 1950, 1960 and 1970. RESULTS: Simulations projected persistent or widening socioeconomic inequality in BMI and obesity over the adult life course, for all birth cohorts. Recent birth cohorts were predicted to have greater socioeconomic inequality by middle age, compared with earlier cohorts. For example, among men, there was no inequality in obesity prevalence at age 60 for the 1940 birth cohort (low SEP 25% (95% CI 17% to 34%); high SEP 26% (95% CI 19% to 34%)), yet for the 1970 birth cohort, obesity prevalence was projected to be 51% (95% CI 43% to 58%) and 41% (95% CI 36% to 46%) for the low and high SEP groups, respectively. Notably, for more recent birth cohorts, the model predicted the greatest socioeconomic inequality in severe obesity (BMI >35 kg/m2) at age 60. CONCLUSIONS: Lower SEP groups and more recent birth cohorts are at higher risk of obesity and severe obesity, and its consequences in middle age. Prevention efforts should focus on these vulnerable population groups in order to avoid future disparities in health outcomes. The model provides a framework for further research to investigate which interventions will be most effective in narrowing the gap in socioeconomic disparities in obesity in adulthood.

The potential for long-term cost-effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions in the early years of life.

BACKGROUND: Early childhood obesity prevention is gaining increasing importance, as the prevalence of children with overweight and obesity aged 5 years and under increases worldwide. Along with understanding the effectiveness of obesity interventions, it is important to understand the cost-effectiveness of interventions over time. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the long-term health benefits and health care cost-savings of reductions in BMI for the Australian population of children aged between 2 and 5 years. METHODS: A proportional multistate, multiple cohort lifetable model estimated the health benefits and health care cost-savings related to hypothetical reductions in BMI, informed by a scoping review of systematic reviews reporting the effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions in preschool aged children. RESULTS: Results suggest significant potential for cost-effectiveness of obesity prevention interventions in preschool-aged children if intervention effect can be maintained. A relatively small population level reduction in BMI z-score (-0.13 BMIz) in children aged 2 to 5 years would result in 36 496 health-adjusted life years saved (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 30 283-42 945) and health care cost-savings of approximately $301 million (95% UI $234 million-$369 million) if modelled over the lifetime. CONCLUSIONS: Scenario results highlight the importance of obesity intervention in the early years of life.

Patterns and costs of health-care utilisation in Australian children: The first 5 years.

AIM: To describe patterns of health-care utilisation and costs of a cohort of Australian children in the first 5 years of life and to investigate demographic factors associated with high health-care utilisation. METHODS: This was a secondary data analysis of prospectively linked health-care utilisation data, including primary and secondary health-care consults, hospitalisations and emergency. The subjects were 350 children from a disadvantaged area of Sydney. Outcomes were the frequency and cost of all health-care consults from birth to 5 years of age. Multivariable logistic regression examined the odds of being a high health-care user in relation to child and family characteristics. RESULTS: Children had more health-care consults and higher annual health-care costs in the first 2 years of life (mean 12 health-care visits per year, mean cost Australian dollars (AUD) 1400 per child) than in the next 3 years (8 visits per year, AUD 900 per child). Primary care consults formed 86% of all health-care encounters but only contributed to 30% of the total costs. Factors positively associated with frequent use of health care in the first 2 years of life included being male, mother not married/de facto and annual household income of less than AUD 40000. Frequent users mostly accessed primary care services. There was no association between demographic factors and frequent use of health care in years 3-5 of life. CONCLUSIONS: Children from low-income or single-parent families may require additional support services during the first 2 years of life. Maintaining or increasing access to free or very low-cost primary health-care services for disadvantaged families will promote equity in health.

Impact of overweight, obesity and severe obesity on life expectancy of Australian adults.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Adult obesity has been shown to substantially heighten the risk of adverse health outcomes but its impact on life expectancy (LE) has not been quantified in Australia. Our aim is to estimate reductions in LE and years of life lost (YLL) associated with overweight and obesity, relative to those at a healthy weight for Australian adults aged 20-69 years. SUBJECTS/METHODS: We used a microsimulation model of obesity progression in Australia that integrates annual change in BMI based on age and sex, with Australian life-table data and published relative risk of all-cause mortality for different BMI categories. Remaining LE and YLL compared to healthy weight were estimated using 10-year cohorts, by sex. A nationally representative sample of 12,091 adults aged 20-69 from the 2014/15 Australian National Health Survey were used to represent the input population of 14.9 million. RESULTS: Estimated remaining years of LE for healthy weight men and women aged 20-29 years was approximately 57.0 (95% CI 56.7-57.4) and 59.7 (95% CI 59.4-60.0) years, respectively. YLL associated with being overweight at baseline was approximately 3.3 years. For those obese and severely obese the loss in LE was predicted to be 5.6-7.6 years and 8.1-10.3 years for men and women aged 20-29 years, respectively. Across men and women, excess BMI in the adult population is responsible for approximately 36.3 million YLLs. Men stand to lose 27.7% more life years compared to women. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obesity is associated with premature mortality at all ages, for both men and women. Adults aged 20-39 years with severe obesity will experience the largest YLL, relative to healthy weight. More needs to be done in Australia to establish a coherent, sustained, cost-effective strategy to prevent overweight and obesity, particularly for men in early adulthood.

Is there an association between early weight status and utility-based health-related quality of life in young children?

PURPOSE: Few studies focus on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of preschool children with overweight or obesity. This is relevant for evaluation of obesity prevention trials using a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) framework. This study examined the association between weight status in the preschool years and HRQoL at age 5 years, using a preference-based instrument. METHODS: HRQoL [based on parent proxy version of the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3)] and weight status were measured in children born in Australia between 2007 and 2009. Children's health status was scored across eight attributes of the HUI3-vision, hearing, speech, ambulation, dexterity, emotion, cognition and pain, and these were used to calculate a multi-attribute utility score. Ordinary least squares (OLS), Tobit and two-part regressions were used to model the association between weight status and multi-attribute utility. RESULTS: Of the 368 children for whom weight status and HUI3 data were available, around 40% had overweight/obesity. After adjusting for child's sex, maternal education, marital status and household income, no significant association between weight status in the preschool years and multi-attribute utility scores at 5 years was found. CONCLUSIONS: Alternative approaches for capturing the effects of weight status in the preschool years on preference-based HRQoL outcomes should be tested. The application of the QALY framework to economic evaluations of obesity-related interventions in young children should also consider longitudinal effects over the life-course. Clinical Trial Registration The Healthy Beginnings Trial was registered with the Australian Clinical Trial Registry (ACTRNO12607000168459).

Identifying covariates of population health using extreme bound analysis.

BACKGROUND: The literature is full of lively discussion on the determinants of population health outcomes. However, different papers focus on small and different sets of variables according to their research agenda. Because many of these variables are measures of different aspects of development and are thus correlated, the results for one variable can be sensitive to the inclusion/exclusion of others. METHOD: We tested for the robustness of potential predictors of population health using the extreme bounds analysis. Population health was measured by life expectancy at birth and infant mortality rate. RESULTS: We found that only about half a dozen variables are robust predictors for life expectancy and infant mortality rate. Among them, adolescent fertility rate, improved water sources, and gender equality are the most robust. All institutional variables and environment variables are systematically non-robust predictors of population health. CONCLUSION: The results highlight the importance of robustness tests in identifying predictors or potential determinants of population health, and cast doubts on the findings of previous studies that fail to do so.