The PROgnostic ModEl for chronic lung disease (PRO-MEL): development and temporal validation.

BACKGROUND: Patients with chronic lung diseases (CLDs), defined as progressive and life-limiting respiratory conditions, experience a heavy symptom burden as the conditions become more advanced, but palliative referral rates are low and late. Prognostic tools can help clinicians identify CLD patients at high risk of deterioration for needs assessments and referral to palliative care. As current prognostic tools may not generalize well across all CLD conditions, we aim to develop and validate a general model to predict one-year mortality in patients presenting with any CLD. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients with a CLD diagnosis at a public hospital from July 2016 to October 2017 was conducted. The outcome of interest was all-cause mortality within one-year of diagnosis. Potential prognostic factors were identified from reviews of prognostic studies in CLD, and data was extracted from electronic medical records. Missing data was imputed using multiple imputation by chained equations. Logistic regression models were developed using variable selection methods and validated in patients seen from January 2018 to December 2019. Discriminative ability, calibration and clinical usefulness of the model was assessed. Model coefficients and performance were pooled across all imputed datasets and reported. RESULTS: Of the 1000 patients, 122 (12.2%) died within one year. Patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or emphysema (55%), bronchiectasis (38%), interstitial lung diseases (12%), or multiple diagnoses (6%). The model selected through forward stepwise variable selection had the highest AUC (0.77 (0.72-0.82)) and consisted of ten prognostic factors. The model AUC for the validation cohort was 0.75 (0.70, 0.81), and the calibration intercept and slope were - 0.14 (-0.54, 0.26) and 0.74 (0.53, 0.95) respectively. Classifying patients with a predicted risk of death exceeding 0.30 as high risk, the model would correctly identify 3 out 10 decedents and 9 of 10 survivors. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated a prognostic model for one-year mortality in patients with CLD using routinely available administrative data. The model will support clinicians in identifying patients across various CLD etiologies who are at risk of deterioration for a basic palliative care assessment to identify unmet needs and trigger an early referral to palliative medicine. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Not applicable (retrospective study).

Risk Factors for All-Cause Mortality in Patients Diagnosed with Advanced Heart Failure: A Scoping Review.

Introduction: Identifying the evolving needs of patients with advanced heart failure (AdHF) and triaging those at high risk of death can facilitate timely referrals to palliative care and advance patient-centered individualized care. There are limited models specific for patients with end-stage HF. We aim to identify risk factors associated with up to three-year all-cause mortality (ACM) and describe prognostic models developed or validated in AdHF populations. Methods: Frameworks proposed by Arksey, O'Malley, and Levac were adopted for this scoping review. We searched the Medline, EMBASE, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane library, Web of Science and gray literature databases for articles published between January 2010 and September 2020. Primary studies that included adults aged ≥ 18 years, diagnosed with AdHF defined as New York Heart Association class III/IV, American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology Stage D, end-stage HF, and assessed for risk factors associated with up to three-year ACM using multivariate analysis were included. Studies were appraised using the Quality of Prognostic Studies tool. Data were analyzed using a narrative synthesis approach. Results: We reviewed 167 risk factors that were associated with up to three-year ACM and prognostic models specific to AdHF patients across 65 articles with low-to-moderate bias. Studies were mostly based in Western and/or European cohorts (n = 60), in the acute care setting (n = 56), and derived from clinical trials (n = 40). Risk factors were grouped into six domains. Variables related to cardiovascular and overall health were frequently assessed. Ten prognostic models developed/validated on AdHF patients displayed acceptable model performance [area under the curve (AUC) range: 0.71-0.81]. Among the ten models, the model for end-stage-liver disease (MELD-XI) and acute decompensated HF with N-terminal pro b-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/proBNP) model attained the highest discriminatory performance against short-term ACM (AUC: 0.81). Conclusions: To enable timely referrals to palliative care interventions, further research is required to develop or validate prognostic models that consider the evolving landscape of AdHF management.

Communities of Care Approach: Developing a Place-based Model of Care and Building Partnerships in the Communities in Central Singapore.

The population in Singapore is ageing, adding pressure to community care as the health and social needs of its residents increase. This has accelerated the pace at which Regional Health Systems adopt and deliver its population health strategies from early prevention, chronic disease management, crisis care to end-of-life care. To this end, the Central Health Integrated Care Network (ICN) began its journey to develop Communities of Care (CoCs) with other health and social care partners to meet the needs of residents in the Central Zone of Singapore. This paper describes the processes and steps taken by Central Health ICN to build partnerships with other agencies and organisations to build place-based models of care in the local neighbourhoods. The faciliating factors and the barriers faced in the implementation of CoCs were described to allow sharing of such learnings on large scale change. Strategies in overcoming some of the challenges were also presented to demonstrate the iterative processes required in building integrated place-based models of care to meet the needs of the residents in different communities.

Risk factors for short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end stage renal disease: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: There is a lack of prognostic information to guide the prediction of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The aim was to review the risk factors that influenced the risk of short-term all-cause mortality in patients with ESRD. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, the Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases were searched for articles published between 2000 and 2020. Articles describing risk factors predicting short-term mortality (≤ 3 years) in patients with ESRD were included. Four reviewers independently performed title, abstract, full text screening and data extraction. Assessment of risk of bias was assessed using the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool checklist. RESULTS: 20,840 articles were identified and 113 papers were included for this review. Of the 113 papers, 6.2% included only peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, 67.3% included only hemodialysis (HD) patients, 20.4% included both PD and HD patients, with the remaining papers featuring patients on conservative management or awaiting renal transplant. Risk factors were categorised into 13 domains: 1)demographics/ lifestyle, 2) comorbidities 3)intradialytic blood pressure, 4)biomarkers, 5)cardiovascular measurements, 6)frailty status, 7)medications, 8)treatment related indicators, 9)renal related parameters, 10)health status, 11)cause of ESRD, 12)access to healthcare care/ information and, 13)proxy measures for poor health. C-reactive protein(CRP), age, and functional status were observed to have higher percentage of instances of being significantly associated with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: Commonly examined risk factors observed from this review may be used to build a general prognostic model for patients with ESRD, with specific treatment related risk factors added on to enhance the accuracy of the models.

Prognostic Factors of Mortality in Nonchronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Chronic Lung Disease: A Scoping Review.

Introduction: Patients with chronic lung disease (CLD) experience a heavy symptom burden at the end of life, but their uptake of palliative care is notably low. Having an understanding of a patient's prognosis would facilitate shared decision making on treatment options and care planning between patients, families, and their clinicians, and complement clinicians' assessments of patients' unmet palliative needs. While literature on prognostication in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been established and summarized, information for other CLDs remains less consolidated. Summarizing the mortality risk factors for non-COPD CLDs would be a novel contribution to literature. Hence, we aimed to identify and summarize the prognostic factors associated with non-COPD CLDs from the literature. Methods: We conducted a scoping review following published guidelines. We searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science for studies published between 2000 and 2020 that described non-COPD CLD populations with an all-cause mortality risk period of up to three years. Only primary studies which reported associations with mortality adjusted through multivariable analysis were included. Results: Fifty-five studies were reviewed, with 53 based on interstitial lung disease (ILD) or connective tissue disease-associated ILD populations and two in bronchiectasis populations. Prognostic factors were classified into 10 domains, with pulmonary function and disease being the largest. Older age, lower forced vital capacity, and lower carbon monoxide diffusing capacity were most commonly investigated and associated with statistically significant increases in mortality risks. Conclusions: This comprehensive overview of prognostic factors for patients with non-COPD CLDs would facilitate the identification and prioritization of candidate factors to predict short-term mortality, supporting tool development for decision making and to identify high-risk patients for palliative needs assessments. Literature focused on patients with ILDs, and more studies should be conducted on other CLDs to bridge the knowledge gap.

Perceived Roles and Barriers in Delivering Community-Based Care: A Qualitative Study of Health and Social Care Professionals.

Introduction: As healthcare systems increasingly embrace population health management, the integration of health and social care to improve the health and well-being of individuals is crucial. Thus, we conducted a qualitative study in Singapore to understand health and social care professionals' (HCPs and SCPs) perception of the roles they played in delivering community-based care. Methods: A descriptive phenomenological research design was adopted. HCPs and SCPs (n = 53) providing services in community settings were recruited purposefully and interviewed through eleven focus group discussions. Each session was recorded and transcribed. Thematic analysis was applied. Results: Our results revealed eight themes in three main categories describing the roles played by HCPs and SCPs, including: (1) delivering needs-based care in community settings; (2) activating and empowering clients in health care, and (3) fostering community-based sustainable support networks. Six barriers encountered while performing these roles were also identified. Discussion and Conclusion: Our results highlight that the roles of HCPs and SCPs go beyond the provision of direct medical and social care. They were involved in activating and empowering clients to take care of their health, and importantly, fostering community-based sustainable support networks to better empower individuals in coping with health challenges. The identified barriers shed light on areas for potential improvements for integrated community care.

Semi-automating abstract screening with a natural language model pretrained on biomedical literature.

We demonstrate the performance and workload impact of incorporating a natural language model, pretrained on citations of biomedical literature, on a workflow of abstract screening for studies on prognostic factors in end-stage lung disease. The model was optimized on one-third of the abstracts, and model performance on the remaining abstracts was reported. Performance of the model, in terms of sensitivity, precision, F1 and inter-rater agreement, was moderate in comparison with other published models. However, incorporating it into the screening workflow, with the second reviewer screening only abstracts with conflicting decisions, translated into a 65% reduction in the number of abstracts screened by the second reviewer. Subsequent work will look at incorporating the pre-trained BERT model into screening workflows for other studies prospectively, as well as improving model performance.

Acceptance of communication technology, emotional support and subjective well-being for Chinese older adults living alone during COVID-19: A moderated mediation model.

Stringent social distancing measures implemented to control the spread of COVID-19 affected older adults living alone by limiting their social interaction beyond their households. During these restrictions, interactions beyond the household could be facilitated by communication technology (CT) such as voice calls, instant messages. Our study provides evidence on how CT acceptance could influence the emotional support and in turn, subjective well-being (SWB) of older adults living alone. We did a cross-sectional survey with 293 community-dwelling Chinese older adults. Participants were surveyed from September to November 2020 and had completed measures on CT acceptance (competency), emotional support, and SWB. PROCESS Model 1 was used to estimate the conditional effects of CT acceptance (competency) on emotional support for those living alone versus with others. Following which, PROCESS Model 7 was used to estimate the conditional indirect effects of CT acceptance (competency) on SWB through emotional support. Our results suggested that living arrangement moderated the indirect effect of CT acceptance (competency) on SWB. For older adults living alone, CT acceptance (competency) was significantly associated with perceived emotional support and, in turn, their SWB. For older adults living with others, CT acceptance was not associated with emotional support and SWB. Our findings call for more research and support to increase older adults' acceptance of CT as an option for communication to increase emotional support for older adults living alone, even during non-pandemic times.

The systemic challenges of non-palliative care professionals caring for end-of-life patients: A lived experience study.

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study are to identify the challenges faced by non-palliative care professionals (NPCPs) in caring for end-of-life patients; determine how these challenges interact with and influence each other systemically; and advance the theories and practices for supporting NPCPs in the provision of quality end-of-life care beyond the boundaries of palliative medicine. METHODS: A constructivist phenomenological research design with an Interpretive-Systemic Framework of inquiry was adopted. Thirty-five physicians, 35 nurses, and 35 Medical Social Workers who play critical roles in caring for end-of-life patients and belonging to the 9 major medical disciplines of Cardiology, Geriatric, Intensive Care Medicine, Internal Medicine, Nephrology, Neurology, Oncology, Respiratory Medicine, and Surgery were recruited through purposive snowball sampling from 3 major public hospitals. RESULTS: Framework analysis revealed 5 themes and 17 subthemes that illuminate the individual, relational, cultural, institutional, and structural challenges that NPCPs faced in rendering end-of-life care. These challenges influence each other within the health-care ecosystem, serving to perpetuate or heighten care obstacles. SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS: This is the first known study exploring the systemic challenges of NPCPs spanning 9 major medical disciplines and encompassing 3 professional stakeholders responsible for the care for end-of-life patients, thus ensuring perspective inclusivity across the health-care system. Recommendations that consider the complexity of the interactions between these systemic challenges are presented in detail.

Predicting mortality in patients diagnosed with advanced dementia presenting at an acute care hospital: the PROgnostic Model for Advanced DEmentia (PRO-MADE).

BACKGROUND: Challenges in prognosticating patients diagnosed with advanced dementia (AD) hinders timely referrals to palliative care. We aim to develop and validate a prognostic model to predict one-year all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients with AD presenting at an acute care hospital. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study utilised administrative and clinical data from Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH). Patients admitted to TTSH between 1st July 2016 and 31st October 2017 and identified to have AD were included. The primary outcome was ACM within one-year of AD diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression was used. The PROgnostic Model for Advanced Dementia (PRO-MADE) was internally validated using a bootstrap resampling of 1000 replications and externally validated on a more recent cohort of AD patients. The model was evaluated for overall predictive accuracy (Nagelkerke's R2 and Brier score), discriminative [area-under-the-curve (AUC)], and calibration [calibration slope and calibration-in-the-large (CITL)] properties. RESULTS: A total of 1,077 patients with a mean age of 85 (SD: 7.7) years old were included, and 318 (29.5%) patients died within one-year of AD diagnosis. Predictors of one-year ACM were age > 85 years (OR:1.87; 95%CI:1.36 to 2.56), male gender (OR:1.62; 95%CI:1.18 to 2.22), presence of pneumonia (OR:1.75; 95%CI:1.25 to 2.45), pressure ulcers (OR:2.60; 95%CI:1.57 to 4.31), dysphagia (OR:1.53; 95%CI:1.11 to 2.11), Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥ 8 (OR:1.39; 95%CI:1.01 to 1.90), functional dependency in ≥ 4 activities of daily living (OR: 1.82; 95%CI:1.32 to 2.53), abnormal urea (OR:2.16; 95%CI:1.58 to 2.95) and abnormal albumin (OR:3.68; 95%CI:2.07 to 6.54) values. Internal validation results for optimism-adjusted Nagelkerke's R2, Brier score, AUC, calibration slope and CITL were 0.25 (95%CI:0.25 to 0.26), 0.17 (95%CI:0.17 to 0.17), 0.76 (95%CI:0.76 to 0.76), 0.95 (95% CI:0.95 to 0.96) and 0 (95%CI:-0.0001 to 0.001) respectively. When externally validated, the model demonstrated an AUC of 0.70 (95%CI:0.69 to 0.71), calibration slope of 0.64 (95%CI:0.63 to 0.66) and CITL of -0.27 (95%CI:-0.28 to -0.26). CONCLUSION: The PRO-MADE attained good discrimination and calibration properties. Used synergistically with a clinician's judgement, this model can identify AD patients who are at high-risk of one-year ACM to facilitate timely referrals to palliative care.

Risk factors for incident falls in Singaporean community-dwelling adult men and women: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Our study aimed to identify the risk factors of incident falls between men and women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: The study recruited participants from the Central region of Singapore. Baseline and follow-up data were collected via a face-to-face survey. PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling adults aged 40 years and above from the Population Health Index Survey. OUTCOME MEASURE: Incident falls were defined as the experience of a fall between the baseline and 1-year follow-up but having no falls 1 year prior to baseline. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to determine the association of sociodemographic factors, medical history and lifestyle with incident falls. Sex subgroup analyses were conducted to examine sex-specific risk factors for incident falls. RESULTS: 1056 participants were included in the analysis. At 1-year follow-up, 9.6% of the participants experienced an incident fall. Incidence of falls in women was 9.8% compared with 7.4% in men. In the multivariable analysis for the overall sample, older age (OR: 1.88, 95% CI: 1.10 to 2.86), being pre-frail (OR: 2.13, 95% CI: 1.12 to 4.00) and having depression or feeling depressed/anxious (OR: 2.35, 95% CI: 1.10 to 4.99) were associated with higher odds for incident falls. In subgroup analyses, older age was a risk factor for incident falls in men (OR: 2.68, 95% CI: 1.21 to 5.90) and pre-frail was a risk factor for incident falls in women (OR: 2.82, 95% CI: 1.28 to 6.20). There was no significant interaction effect between sex and age group (p value=0.341) and sex and frailty status (p value=0.181). CONCLUSION: Older age, presence of pre-frailty and having depression or feeling depressed/anxious were associated with higher odds of incident falls. In our subgroup analyses, older age was a risk factor for incident falls in men and being pre-frail was a risk factor for incident falls in women. These findings provide useful information for community health services in designing falls prevention programmes for community-dwelling adults in a multi-ethnic Asian population.

Integrated palliative homecare in advanced dementia: reduced healthcare utilisation and costs.

OBJECTIVES: To determine the economic benefit of an integrated home-based palliative care programme for advanced dementia (Programme Dignity), evaluation is required. This study aimed to estimate Programme Dignity's average monthly cost from a provider's perspective; and compare healthcare utilisation and costs of programme patients with controls, accounting for enrolment duration. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. Home-dwelling patients with advanced dementia (stage 7 on the functional assessment staging in Alzheimer's disease) with a history of pneumonia, albumin <35 g/L or tube-feeding and known to be deceased were analysed (Programme Dignity=184, controls=139). One-year programme operational costs were apportioned on a per patient-month basis. Cumulative healthcare utilisation and costs were examined at 1, 3 and 6 months look-back from death. Between-group comparisons used Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson regressions and generalised linear models. RESULTS: The average monthly programme cost was SGD$1311 (SGD-Pounds exchange rate: 0.481) per patient. Fully enrolled programme patients were less likely to visit the emergency department (incidence rate ratios (IRRs): 1 month=0.56; 3 months=0.19; 6 months=0.10; all p<0.001), be admitted to hospital (IRRs: 1 month=0.60; 3 months=0.19; 6 months=0.15; all p<0.001), had a lower cumulative length of stay (IRRs: 1 month=0.78; 3 months=0.49; 6 months=0.24; all p<0.001) and incurred lesser healthcare utilisation costs (ß-coefficients: 1 month=0.70; 3 months=0.40; 6 months=0.43; all p<0.01) at all time-points examined. CONCLUSION: Programme Dignity for advanced dementia reduces healthcare utilisation and costs. If scalable, it may benefit more patients wishing to remain at home at the end-of-life, allowing for a potentially sustainable care model to cope with rapid population ageing. It contributes to the evidence base of advanced dementia palliative care and informs healthcare policy making. Future studies should estimate informal caregiving costs for comprehensive economic evaluation.

Protocol for a mixed-methods and multi-site assessment of the implementation process and outcomes of a new community-based frailty programme.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is increasing in prevalence internationally with population ageing. Frailty can be managed or even reversed through community-based interventions delivered by a multi-disciplinary team of professionals, but to varying degrees of success. However, many of these care models' implementation insights are contextual and may not be applicable in different cultural contexts. The Geriatric Service Hub (GSH) is a novel frailty care model in Singapore that focuses on identifying and managing frailty in the community. It includes key components of frailty care such as comprehensive geriatric assessments, care coordination and the assembly of a multi-disciplinary team. This study aims to gain insights into the factors influencing the development and implementation of the GSH. We also aim to determine the programme's effectiveness through patient-reported health-related outcomes. Finally, we will conduct a healthcare utilisation and cost analysis using a propensity score-matched comparator group. METHODS: We will adopt a mixed-methods approach that includes a qualitative evaluation among key stakeholders and participants in the programme, through in-depth interviews and focus group discussions. The main topics covered include factors that affected the development and implementation of each programme, operations and other contextual factors that influenced implementation outcomes. The quantitative evaluation monitors each programme's care process through quality indicators. It also includes a multiple-time point survey study to compare programme participants' pre- and post- outcomes on patient engagement, healthcare services experiences, health status and quality of life, caregiver burden and societal costs. A retrospective cohort study will compare healthcare and cost utilisation between participants of the programme and a propensity score-matched comparator group. DISCUSSION: The GSH sites share a common goal to increase the accessibility of essential services to frail older adults and provide comprehensive care. This evaluation study will provide invaluable insights into both the process and outcomes of the GSH and inform the design of similar programmes targeting frail older adults. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT04866316 . Date of Registration April 26, 2021. Retrospectively registered.

Health outcomes and implementation barriers and facilitators of comprehensive geriatric assessment in community settings: a systematic integrative review [PROSPERO registration no.: CRD42021229953].

BACKGROUND: Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) addresses the bio-psycho-social needs of older adults through multidimensional assessments and management. Synthesising evidence on quantitative health outcomes and implementation barriers and facilitators would inform practice and policy on CGA for community-dwelling older adults. METHODS: We systematically searched four medical and social sciences electronic databases for quantitative, qualitative, and mixed methods studies published from 1 January 2000 to 31 October 2020. Due to heterogeneity of articles, we narratively reviewed the synthesis of evidence on health outcomes and implementation barriers and facilitators. RESULTS: We screened 14,151 titles and abstracts and 203 full text articles, and included 43 selected articles. Study designs included controlled intervention studies (n = 31), pre-post studies without controls (n = 4), case-control (n = 1), qualitative methods (n = 3), and mixed methods (n = 4). A majority of articles studied populations aged ≥75 years (n = 18, 42%). CGAs were most frequently conducted in the home (n = 25, 58%) and primary care settings (n = 8, 19%). CGAs were conducted by nurses in most studies (n = 22, 51%). There was evidence of improved functional status (5 of 19 RCTs, 2 of 3 pre-post), frailty and fall outcomes (3 of 6 RCTs, 1 of 1 pre-post), mental health outcomes (3 of 6 RCTs, 2 of 2 pre-post), self-rated health (1 of 6 RCTs, 1 of 1 pre-post), and quality of life (4 of 17 RCTs, 3 of 3 pre-post). Barriers to implementation of CGAs involved a lack of partnership alignment and feedback, poor acceptance of preventive work, and challenges faced by providers in operationalising and optimising CGAs. The perceived benefits of CGA that served to facilitate its implementation included the use of highly skilled staff to provide holistic assessments and patient education, and the resultant improvements in care coordination and convenience to the patients, particularly where home-based assessments and management were performed. CONCLUSION: There is mixed evidence on the quantitative health outcomes of CGA on community-dwelling older adults. While there is perceived positive value from CGA when carried out by highly skilled staff, barriers such as bringing providers into a partnership, greater acceptance of preventive care, and operational issues could impede its implementation.

Medical cost of advanced illnesses in the last-year of life-retrospective database study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to quantify medical care utilisation, and to describe the cost trajectories of individuals with advanced illnesses in the last-year of life, differentiated by advanced cancer, end-stage organ failure and progressive neurological disorders. METHODS: This retrospective database study included decedents who had previous inpatient or outpatient encounters at a public hospital in Singapore. Patients with advanced diseases were identified based on diagnostic codes and clinical criteria. Using a look-back approach, the amount of healthcare services utilised and the corresponding mean monthly and annual costs to the healthcare system in the last 12-months of life were quantified. RESULTS: The last 12-months of life among 6,598 decedents was associated with £20,524 (95% confidence interval: £20,013-£21,036) in medical costs, of which 80% was accounted for by inpatient admissions. Costs increased sharply in the last 2-months of life, with a large proportion of monthly costs accounted for by inpatient admissions which rose rapidly from 61% at 12-months prior to death to 94% in the last-month of life. Compared to patients with cancer, individuals diagnosed with non-cancer advanced illnesses accumulated 1.6 times more healthcare costs in the last-year of life with significant differences across patients with end-stage organ failure and progressive neurological disorders. CONCLUSION: Healthcare costs varied across disease conditions at the end-of-life. With advance care planning and close collaboration between the inpatient clinical team and the community providers, it may be possible to re-direct some of the hospitalisation costs to community-based palliative care services.

Competing expectations: Advance care planning from the perspectives of doctors and nurses in the South-East Asian context.

This study qualitatively examines the perspectives of doctors and nurses on the implementation of the Advance Care Planning program in Singapore. Findings suggest that a combination of structural and conceptual factors hindered the performance of ACP. Themes on structural factors indicated that low awareness of ACP among senior staff resulted overall lack of buy-in and incorrect implementation of the program due to misconceptions. Conceptual factors pointed to lack of clarity on intended outcomes or roles. Consequently, participants drew meaning through the prism of their profession, resulting in competing expectations and tensions on possible outcomes of the program.

"I decide myself"- A qualitative exploration of end of life decision making processes of patients and caregivers through Advance Care Planning.

BACKGROUND: The Singapore national Advance Care Planning (ACP) programme was launched in 2011 with the purpose of ensuring that healthcare professionals are fully aware of patients' treatment preferences. There is little research assessing the performance of such programmes in ethnically diverse Asian countries; hence, the purpose of this study was to qualitatively examine patients and caregivers' experiences with the ACP programme. METHOD: We conducted interviews with 28 participants, thirteen of whom identified as proxy decision makers (PDMs) and the remainder as patients. Interviews focused on respondents' experiences of chronic illness and of participating in the ACP programme. Textual data was analysed through a framework analysis approach. RESULTS: Participants' narratives focused on four major themes with 12 subthemes: a) Engagement with Death, factors influencing respondents' acceptance of ACP; b) Formation of Preferences, the set of concerns influencing respondents' choice of care; c) Choice of PDM, considerations shaping respondents' choice of nominated health spokesperson; and d) Legacy Solidification, how ACP is used to ensure the welfare of the family after the patient passes. These findings led to our development of the directive decision-making process framework, which delineates personal and sociocultural factors influencing participants' decision-making processes. Respondents' continual participation in the intervention were driven by their personal belief system that acted as a lens through which they interpreted religious doctrine and socio-cultural norms according to their particular needs. CONCLUSION: The directive decision-making process framework indicated that ACP could be appropriate for the Asian context because participants displayed an awareness of the need for ACP and were able to develop a concrete treatment plan. Patients in this study made decisions based on their perceived long-term legacy for their family, who they hoped to provide with a solid financial and psychological foundation after their death.

Effect of a Real-Time Risk Score on 30-day Readmission Reduction in Singapore.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a risk score for the real-time prediction of readmissions for patients using patient specific information captured in electronic medical records (EMR) in Singapore to enable the prospective identification of high-risk patients for enrolment in timely interventions. METHODS: Machine-learning models were built to estimate the probability of a patient being readmitted within 30 days of discharge. EMR of 25,472 patients discharged from the medicine department at Ng Teng Fong General Hospital between January 2016 and December 2016 were extracted retrospectively for training and internal validation of the models. We developed and implemented a real-time 30-day readmission risk score generation in the EMR system, which enabled the flagging of high-risk patients to care providers in the hospital. Based on the daily high-risk patient list, the various interfaces and flow sheets in the EMR were configured according to the information needs of the various stakeholders such as the inpatient medical, nursing, case management, emergency department, and postdischarge care teams. RESULTS: Overall, the machine-learning models achieved good performance with area under the receiver operating characteristic ranging from 0.77 to 0.81. The models were used to proactively identify and attend to patients who are at risk of readmission before an actual readmission occurs. This approach successfully reduced the 30-day readmission rate for patients admitted to the medicine department from 11.7% in 2017 to 10.1% in 2019 (p < 0.01) after risk adjustment. CONCLUSION: Machine-learning models can be deployed in the EMR system to provide real-time forecasts for a more comprehensive outlook in the aspects of decision-making and care provision.