Endoscopic resection for gastric submucosal tumors: A single-center experience in Japan.

Objectives: Endoscopic resection (ER) for gastric submucosal tumors (SMTs) has gained prominence in recent years, with studies emerging from various countries. However, there is a paucity of reports from Japan. We aimed to elucidate the efficacy and safety of ER for gastric SMT in Japan. Methods: In this retrospective observational study, we investigated the outcomes of consecutive patients who underwent ER for gastric SMT from January 2017 to May 2023. The outcome variables assessed included the complete resection rate, procedure time, closure-related outcomes, and the incidence of adverse events. Results: A total of 13 patients were included in the analysis. The median procedure time was 163 (55-283) min. Complete full-thickness resection was performed in seven cases, while in four cases, the serosa remained, and in two cases, the outer layer of the muscularis propria remained. In two cases where the SMT was located on the anterior side, conversion to laparoscopic surgery became necessary, resulting in a procedural success rate of 84.6% (11/13). Excluding these two cases, endoscopic closure of the defect was successfully accomplished in the remaining 11 cases. R0 resection was achieved in 12 out of 13 cases (92.3%). Although one patient had peritonitis, which was successfully treated conservatively, no other treatment-related adverse events were encountered. Conclusions: Although ER for SMT on the anterior side may be challenging, our experience revealed that ER is a safe and efficacious approach for gastric SMT.

Impact of peroral endoscopic myotomy on the endoscopic pressure study integrated system.

OBJECTIVES: The endoscopic pressure study integrated system (EPSIS) is an endoscopic diagnostic system utilized for evaluation of lower esophageal sphincter function. Although previous studies have determined that EPSIS was effective as a tool for the diagnosis of achalasia, it remains uncertain if EPSIS can detect significant changes before and after peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM), which is the premier treatment for achalasia. This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of EPSIS as an objective diagnostic tool for assessing the clinical effect of POEM. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of patients who underwent POEM from January 2022 to December 2023. The patients underwent EPSIS preoperatively and 2 months postoperatively. Intragastric pressure (IGP) parameters, including the maximum IGP, IGP difference, and waveform gradient were compared pre- and post-POEM. These parameters also were compared between two groups: the postoperative gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) group and the non-GERD group. RESULTS: A total of 50 patients were analyzed. The mean maximum IGP was significantly lower postoperatively than preoperatively (15.0 mmHg vs. 19.8 mmHg, P < 0.001). The mean IGP difference and waveform gradient were also significantly lower postoperatively than preoperatively (8.0 mmHg vs. 12.2 mmHg, P < 0.001; and 0.26 mmHg/s vs. 0.43 mmHg/s, P < 0.001, respectively). The mean postoperative waveform gradient was significantly lower in the GERD group (17 patients, 34%) than in the non-GERD group (33 patients, 66%) (0.207 mmHg vs. 0.291 mmHg, P = 0.034). CONCLUSION: The results supported the use of EPSIS as an effective diagnostic tool for assessing the effect of POEM.

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Closure in antireflux mucoplasty using anchor prong clips: dead space-eliminating technique.

Video 1Introducing the dead space eliminating technique (DET), a closure method using anchor pronged clips for antireflux mucoplasty in treating proton pump inhibitor refractory-dependent GERD. DET ensures comprehensive dead space elimination during closure.

Single-Facility Analysis of COVID-19 Status of Healthcare Employees during the Eighth and Ninth Pandemic Waves in Japan after Introducing Regular Rapid Antigen Testing.

BACKGROUND: Community infections of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have increased rapidly since the emergence of the Omicron strain. During the eighth and ninth pandemic waves-when movement restrictions in the community were eased-the all-case registration system was changed, and the actual status of infection became uncertain. METHODS: We conducted regular rapid antigen tests (R-RATs) once or twice a week as self-testing to examine the actual state of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) diagnosis among healthcare employees. RESULTS: Overall, 320 (1.42/day) and 299 (1.76/day) employees were infected in the eighth and ninth pandemic waves. During both periods, 59/263 doctors (22.4%), 335/806 nurses (41.6%), 92/194 administrative employees (47.4%), and 129/218 clinical laboratory technicians (59.2%) were infected. In the eighth wave, 56 of 195 employees were infected through close contact; in the ninth wave, 26 of 62 employees were infected. No significant difference was observed in the number of vaccinations between infected and non-infected employees. The positivity rate of R-RATs was 0.41% and 0.45% in the eighth and ninth waves. R-RATs detected infection in 212 and 229 employees during the eighth and ninth waves, respectively; the ratio of R-RAT-detected positive employees to those who reported infection was significantly higher during the ninth wave (odds ratio: 1.67, 95% confidence interval: 1.17-2.37, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The number of infected healthcare employees remained high during the eighth and ninth pandemic waves in Japan. The R-RAT is considered effective for detecting mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 at an early stage and at a high rate in healthcare employees.

Advancements in minimally invasive endoscopic treatment: Navigating deeper layers for upper gastrointestinal lesion.

The field of minimally invasive endoscopic treatment has seen a continual progression, marked by significant advancements in treatment devices and the refinement of endoscopic techniques. While endoscopic resection has become the standard for treating superficial gastrointestinal neoplasms, a proactive approach becomes imperative when dealing with lesions that extend beyond the submucosal layer and deeper into the muscularis propria. The ongoing evolution of endoscopic closure techniques has facilitated the introduction of advanced procedures such as endoscopic muscularis dissection, endoscopic subserosal dissection, and endoscopic full-thickness resection. This evolution is achieved by the commitment to improve the efficacy and precision in treating challenging lesions. Nevertheless, there is currently a lack of definitive guidelines or consensus regarding the specifics of deeper layer dissection. Drawing from prior research and clinical insights, this review discusses indications, techniques, clinical outcomes, and future perspectives of deeper layer dissection.

Risk factors and pattern of metastatic recurrence after endoscopic resection with additional treatment for esophageal cancer.

Although esophageal cancers invading the muscularis mucosa (pT1a-MM) or submucosa (pT1b-SM) after endoscopic resection (ER) are associated with a risk of lymph node metastasis, details of metastatic recurrence after additional treatment remain unknown. We aimed to identify the risk factors for metastatic recurrence and recurrence patterns in patients receiving additional treatment after ER for esophageal cancer. Between 2006 and 2017, patients with pT1a-MM/pT1b-SM esophageal cancer who underwent ER with additional treatment (esophagectomy, chemoradiotherapy [CRT], and radiation therapy) at 21 institutions in Japan were enrolled. We evaluated the risk factors for metastatic recurrence after ER with additional treatment. Subsequently, the rate and pattern (locoregional or distant) of metastatic recurrence were investigated for each additional treatment. Of the 220 patients who received additional treatment, 57, 125, and 38 underwent esophagectomy, CRT, and radiation therapy, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, lymphatic invasion was the sole risk factor for metastatic recurrence after additional treatment (hazard ratio, 3.50; P = 0.029). Although the risk of metastatic recurrence with additional esophagectomy was similar to that with CRT (hazard ratio, 1.01; P = 0.986), the rate of locoregional recurrence tended to be higher with additional esophagectomy (80.0% (4/5) vs. 36.4% (4/11)), leading to a better prognosis in patients with metastatic recurrence after additional esophagectomy than CRT (survival rate, 80.0% (4/5) vs. 9.1% (1/11)). Patients with lymphatic invasion have a high risk of metastatic recurrence after ER with additional treatment for pT1a-MM/pT1b-SM esophageal cancer. Additional esophagectomy may result in a better prognosis after metastatic recurrence.

Endoscopic pressure study integrated system using an ultrathin gastroscope for the functional assessment of the lower esophageal sphincter.

OBJECTIVES: The endoscopic pressure study integrated system (EPSIS) represents an innovative approach for evaluating lower esophageal sphincter function by monitoring intragastric pressure using diagnostic gastroscopes. This study aimed to assess the feasibility and validity of employing ultrathin gastroscopes for EPSIS. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was conducted on a database of consecutive patients who underwent EPSIS using both ultrathin and regular gastroscopes between September 2021 and October 2023. The study compared EPSIS parameters between the two gastroscope types to evaluate the correlation of key metrics. RESULTS: Thirty patients underwent EPSIS with both ultrathin and regular gastroscopes. Significant positive correlations were observed in the pressure waveform: maximum intragastric pressure (mmHg) (ρ = 0.82, P < 0.001) and intragastric pressure gradient (mmHg/s) (ρ = 0.80, P < 0.001) when comparing the two gastroscopes. Maximum intragastric pressure (15.5 [5.3-20.3] vs. 18.5 [3.4-21.6], P < 0.001) and pressure gradient (0.16 [0.013-0.41] vs. 0.24 [0.0039-1.13], P < 0.001), (median [range]) were significantly lower with ultrathin gastroscopes. CONCLUSIONS: This study establishes that EPSIS parameters obtained with an ultrathin gastroscope exhibit a significant correlation with those obtained using a regular gastroscope, with each EPSIS parameter consistently lower. These findings support the viability of EPSIS for ultrathin gastroscopy and highlight its potential as a diagnostic tool for assessing lower esophageal sphincter function.

Is proton-pump inhibitor effective in preventing postoperative bleeding after esophageal endoscopic submucosal dissection?

Although proton-pump inhibitor (PPI) administration was reported to be effective in preventing delayed bleeding after gastric endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD), its effectiveness in esophageal ESD is still unknown. We assessed whether PPI or vonoprazan administration was effective in preventing posterior hemorrhage after esophageal ESD. This retrospective cohort study used the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination (DPC) database, and patients who underwent esophageal ESD between January 2012 and December 2020 were enrolled. The participants were divided into two groups: patients who were prescribed PPI or vonoprazan (PPI or vonoprazan group) and those who were not prescribed PPI (no acid suppression). Propensity score matching analysis was performed, and the delayed bleeding rate was compared between the groups. We analyzed 54,345 patients, of whom 8237 (15.16%) were in the no acid suppression group and 46,108 (84.84%) in the PPI or vonoprazan group (PPI: 34,380 and vonoprazan: 11,728). Delayed bleeding occurred in 1126 patients (2.07%). A total of 8237 pairs were created after matching. Delayed bleeding was not significantly different between the no acid suppression group and PPI or vonoprazan group, respectively (odds ratio: 1.20, 95% confidential interval: 0.93-1.54, P = 0.227). A sub-analysis according to the dose of PPI or vonoprazan, tumor location, and prescription of antithrombotic or anticoagulant medications was performed, but no significant effects of PPI or vonoprazan administration were found. PPI or vonoprazan did not prevent delayed bleeding; thus, the prescription of PPI and vonoprazan after esophageal ESD may not be recommended for the prevention of delayed bleeding.

Hood attached vs conventional triangular tip-jet knife in peroral endoscopic myotomy: a propensity score matching cohort study.

BACKGROUND & AIM: Peroral endoscopic myotomy (POEM) is a safe and effective endoscopic treatment for achalasia and other esophageal motility disorders, and TTJ (Triangle Tip Knife J; Olympus, Tokyo, Japan) is currently widely used in POEM. Recently, we reported a novel modification of TTJ, which was adjusted to knife length 2 mm by attaching a disposable clip (QuickClip Pro; Olympus) sheath to the tip as a hood attachment. In this study, we compared the safety and effectiveness of TTJ and TTJ with hood attachment (TTJ-H) in POEM. METHODS: In this 1:1 propensity score matched retrospective cohort study, we compared the procedure time, myotomy efficiency, number of coagulation forceps usage, adverse events, length of hospital stay after POEM, procedural success and clinical success between TTJ and TTJ-H groups. RESULTS: We examined 682 consecutive patients who underwent POEM between January 2021 and June 2023. We excluded 134 patients who had already undergone POEM or laparoscopic Heller myotomy as prior myotomy. Finally, we identified 98 propensity score-matched pairs (n = 196). The mean procedure time was shortened from 93.5 to 80.2 min (14% reduction, P = 0.012) when comparing TTJ-H group to TTJ group. The mean myotomy efficiency was improved from 2.76 to 2.32 min/cm (16% improvement, P = <0.001), and usage of coagulation forceps for hemostasis was decreased from 3.87 to 0.55 (86% reduction, P = <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that use of TTJ-H could reduce total procedure time, improve myotomy efficiency, and reduce costs compared to TTJ.

Feasibility and safety of per-oral endoscopic septotomy for Killian-Jamieson diverticulum: Case series with video.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Killian-Jamieson diverticulum (KJD) is a relatively uncommon variant of pharyngoesophageal diverticula, distinct from the more prevalent Zenker diverticulum. However, literature on endoscopic management of KJD remains limited. This study aimed to elucidate the efficacy and safety of peroral endoscopic septotomy (POES) as a treatment approach for symptomatic KJD. METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we investigated the outcomes of nine consecutive patients who underwent POES for KJD between January 2019 and May 2023. Follow-up data of at least 2 months post-treatment were analyzed. The primary outcome measure was the technical success rate of POES. Secondary outcomes encompassed the clinical success rate, defined as symptomatic improvement 2 months after POES, and the incidence of adverse events. RESULTS: All patients presented with dysphagia, with a median symptom duration of 6 months (interquartile range [IQR]: 3-12 months). The median diverticulum size was 32 mm (IQR: 24-42 mm). The median duration of the operation time was 66 min (IQR: 60-109). A 100% technical success rate was achieved, with complete closure of the defect in all cases. There were no adverse events related to this treatment. The median hospitalization duration was 5 days (IQR: 4-6), and the clinical success rate was 88.9%. Follow-up barium esophagograms exhibited significant improvement in the flow of the barium for all patients. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the relatively limited case volume, our findings underscore that POES is a safe and efficacious approach for managing symptomatic KJD.

Pilot study on anti-reflux mucoplasty: Advancing endoscopic anti-reflux therapy for gastroesophageal reflux disease.

OBJECTIVES: Anti-reflux mucosectomy (ARMS) and anti-reflux mucosal ablation (ARMA) were developed as interventions for proton pump inhibitor (PPI)-refractory/-dependent gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). Although ARMS and ARMA are established treatments for PPI-refractory GERD, reliance on natural healing for ulcer scar formation introduces uncertainty and bleeding risk. To address these issues, we introduced a novel approach called anti-reflux mucoplasty (ARM-P), which involves immediate closure of mucosal defects following mucosectomy. This pilot study aims to evaluate the safety, feasibility, and efficacy of ARM-P. METHODS: A retrospective single-center study was conducted using prospectively collected data from October 2022 to July 2023. Patients with PPI-refractory/-dependent GERD who underwent ARM-P were included. The study evaluated technical success of ARM-P, before and after ARM-P GERD-Health Related Quality of Life Questionnaire, GerdQ, and Frequency Scale for the Symptoms of GERD scores, along with PPI discontinuation and endoscopic esophagogastric junction morphology. RESULTS: A total of 20 patients with a median age of 61.5 years underwent the ARM-P procedure. The procedure achieved 100% technical success without adverse events. After ARM-P, 55.0% discontinued PPI usage and 15.0% reduced PPI dose by half. Median GERD-Health Related Quality of Life Questionnaire score improved from 21 to 6 (P = 0.0026), median GerdQ score improved from 9 to 7 (P = 0.0022), and median Frequency Scale for the Symptoms of GERD score decreased from 16 to 7 (P = 0.0003). Median Hill's Classification significantly improved from grade III to grade I (P = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: This study presents the first pilot report of ARM-P, demonstrating its procedural safety, technical feasibility, and short-term efficacy.

Endoscopic pressure study integrated system for the diagnosis of achalasia.

OBJECTIVES: The endoscopic pressure study integrated system (EPSIS) is a novel diagnostic tool used to evaluate lower esophageal sphincter (LES) function. EPSIS allows the measurement of intragastric pressure (IGP) during gastric insufflation through esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) and records its pressure waveform. This study aimed to assess the usefulness and applicability of EPSIS as an adjunct diagnostic modality for achalasia. METHODS: This case-control study was conducted using a database of patients who underwent EGD, barium swallow (BS), high-resolution manometry (HRM), and EPSIS between January 2022 and December 2022. The achalasia (experimental) group (n = 35) consisted of patients with a definitive diagnosis of achalasia. The control group (n = 34) consisted of patients with no abnormalities in EGD, BS, or HRM and no abnormal acid reflux confirmed with 24-h pH-impedance monitoring. EPSIS findings were compared between the two groups and characterized by the waveform pattern (uphill or flat), maximum IGP (IGP-Max), pressure difference, and the gradient of the waveform. RESULTS: All patients in the achalasia group showed an uphill pattern, in contrast to 21 patients (61.8%) in the control group. IGP-Max demonstrated the best diagnostic accuracy for achalasia, with a cut-off value of 15.8 mmHg (100% sensitivity, 58.8% specificity, and area under the curve [AUC] 0.78). The pressure gradient also demonstrated good diagnostic accuracy, with a cut-off value of 0.40 mmHg/s (80% sensitivity, 61.8% specificity, and AUC 0.76). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated that EPSIS can be applied as a diagnostic modality in patients with achalasia.

Usefulness of the S-O clip for duodenal endoscopic submucosal dissection: a propensity score-matched study.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) for superficial non-ampullary duodenal tumors (SNADETs) is associated with a high rate of en bloc resection. However, the technique for ESD remains challenging. Recent studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of S-O clips in colonic and gastric ESD. We evaluated the efficacy and safety of duodenal ESD using an S-O clip for SNADETs. METHODS: Consecutive patients who underwent ESD for SNADETs between January 2011 and December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. Propensity score matching analysis was used to compare patients who underwent duodenal ESD with the S-O clip (S-O group) and those who underwent conventional ESD (control group). Intraoperative perforation rate was the primary outcome, while procedure time and R0 resection rate were the secondary outcomes. RESULTS: After propensity score matching, 16 pairs were created: 43 and 17 in the S-O and control groups, respectively. The intraoperative perforation rate in the S-O group was significantly lower than that in the control group (p=0.033). A significant difference was observed in the procedure time between the S-O and control groups (39±9 vs. 82±30 minutes, respectively; p=0.003). CONCLUSION: The S-O clip reduced the intraoperative perforation rate and procedure time, which may be useful and effective in duodenal ESD.

Single-center survey of prescription trends and appropriate use plans for macrolide antimicrobials.

INTRODUCTION: Macrolides (MCs) are broad-spectrum antimicrobials with activity against many microorganisms. They are widely used, and the development of MC-resistant bacteria is a serious problem in Japan. It is therefore necessary to clarify the purpose and duration of administration, with the aim of promoting appropriate use. METHODS: Patients of all ages, for whom oral MCs were prescribed between 2016 and 2020 were included. They were divided into four groups based on the number of days per prescription. In the long-term treatment group, patients treated with MCs for ≥1000 days were specifically investigated for the purpose of treatment. RESULTS: Macrolide prescriptions increased from 2019 to 2020. Most patients received ≥28 days of treatment based on one prescription. During the study period, 1212 patients (28.6%) received a total of ≥50 days and 152 patients (3.6%) received a total of ≥1000 days of treatment. Approximately a third of long-term administrations were for nontuberculous mycobacterial infections (NTMs), and 18.3% of patients with NTMs were treated with MCs alone. In addition, many MCs were administered for their anti-inflammatory effects on neutrophils. CONCLUSIONS: Owing to their pleiotropic effects, MCs may also be administered for the treatment of noninfectious diseases. In general, the long-term administration of antimicrobials contradicts the strategy for the suppression of resistant bacteria. It is thus important to understand the actual clinical utility of MCs and the purpose and duration of administration. In addition, strategies for the appropriate use of MCs are required for each medical institution.

Impact of COVID-19 on the endoscopy department since the early phase of the pandemic in 2020: A questionnaire study among patients with canceled examinations at a single Japanese institution.

INTRODUCTION: In early 2020, the Japanese government declared a nationwide state of emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated the impact of the emergency declaration on endoscopy adherence and conducted a follow-up study of patients with canceled examinations at a tertiary endoscopy facility in Japan in 2020. METHODS: We compared the number of endoscopies performed, and cancelations at the endoscopy unit between 2019 and 2020 and used the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) model to estimate the decrease in the number of endoscopies in 2020. We administered a questionnaire to those who had not undergone a scheduled endoscopy. RESULTS: Of 14 146 and 13 338 scheduled examinations, 1233 (8.7%) and 1403 (10.5%) were canceled in 2019 and 2020, respectively. During both years, age < 50 years, age > 80 years, upper endoscopy, and experience of endoscopy in the past 5 years were significantly associated with cancelations. In 2020, cancelations in the 14th-26th week of the year, including the period of state of emergency, increased significantly, and more women canceled. Of the 409 questionnaire-respondents, 174 (42.5%) indicated that COVID-19 had influenced their cancelation, and 315 (77.0%) had not undergone similar endoscopic examinations since then. The BSTS model predicted a decrease of 957 (95% CI -1213 to -708, P = .003) examinations. CONCLUSION: In 2020, despite low numbers of COVID-19 cases in the study site, the number of endoscopies decreased, and cancelation increased. Further research is needed on the future impact of a decrease in the number of endoscopies during a COVID-19 pandemic.

Muscular metastasis of superficial esophageal squamous cell carcinoma: a rare case of recurrence after endoscopic submucosal dissection with additional chemoradiotherapy.

Esophageal cancer after endoscopic treatment may recur depending on the risk. We present a case of a rare T1b esophageal cancer after endoscopic treatment plus chemoradiotherapy (CRT) that recurred with metastasis of the dorsal muscles. A 70-year-old man was referred for treatment of early-stage esophageal carcinoma. Endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) was performed and histopathology showed a poorly differentiated squamous cell carcinoma with invasion to the submucosal layer (sm2) with INFc-type invasion and positive venous invasion. After subsequent CRT, the patient was monitored every 6 months, using computed tomography (CT) and endoscopy. Fifteen months after the treatment, contrast CT revealed a spherical mass with 9 cm ring enhancement within the right erector spinae, that had squamous cell carcinoma confirmed by CT-guided biopsy. Radiation and systemic chemotherapy were initiated for the metastasis of the esophageal carcinoma. However, he died of respiratory failure due to rapid pleural effusion 26 months after ESD. Pathological autopsy showed diffuse squamous cell carcinoma invasion of the cystic wall, forming a lumbar mass, and absence of cancer cell remnants or recurrences in the esophagus. This case report emphasizes the need for systemic observation of superficial esophageal cancer after treatment with a high risk of recurrence.

Prognostic Benefit of Additional Treatment After Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Although additional treatment is considered for patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) invading into the muscularis mucosa (pT1a-MM) or submucosa (pT1b-SM) after endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD), the actual benefits of this method remain to be elucidated. AIMS: We aimed to evaluate the prognostic benefits of additional treatment in such patients. METHODS: Between 2006 and 2017, we enrolled patients with pT1a-MM/pT1b-SM ESCC after ESD at 21 institutions in Japan. Overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) were compared between the additional treatment and follow-up groups after propensity score matching, to reduce the bias of baseline characteristics. A subgroup analysis was performed according to the pathological findings: category A, pT1a-MM but negative for lymphovascular invasion (LVI) and vertical margin (VM); category B, tumor invasion into the submucosa ≤ 200 µm but negative for LVI and VM; category C, others. RESULTS: Of 593 patients with pT1a-MM/pT1b-SM ESCC after ESD, 101 matched pairs were extracted after propensity score matching. The OSs were similar between the additional treatment and follow-up groups (80.6% vs. 78.6% in 5 years; P = 0.972). In a subgroup analysis, the OS in the additional treatment group was significantly lower than that in the follow-up group (65.7% vs. 95.2% in 5 years; P = 0.037) in category A, whereas OS did not significantly differ in category C (76.8% vs. 69.5% in 5 years; P = 0.360). CONCLUSIONS: Additional treatment after ESD in patients with pT1a-MM/pT1b-SM ESCC was not associated with an improved prognosis.