Modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis have consistent directions of effect across diverse ethnic backgrounds: a nested case-control study in an English population-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis is a leading cause of non-traumatic neurological disability among young adults worldwide. Prior studies have identified modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis in cohorts of White ethnicity, such as infectious mononucleosis, smoking, and obesity during adolescence/early adulthood. It is unknown whether modifiable exposures for multiple sclerosis have a consistent impact on risk across ethnic groups. AIM: To determine whether modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis have similar effects across diverse ethnic backgrounds. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Multiple sclerosis cases diagnosed from 2001 until 2022 were identified from electronic healthcare records and matched to unaffected controls based on year of birth. We used stratified logistic regression models and formal statistical interaction tests to determine whether the effect of modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis differed by ethnicity. RESULTS: We included 9662 multiple sclerosis cases and 118,914 age-matched controls. The cohort was ethnically diverse (MS: 277 South Asian [2.9%], 251 Black [2.6%]; Controls: 5043 South Asian [5.7%], 4019 Black [4.5%]). The age at MS diagnosis was earlier in the Black (40.5 [SD 10.9]) and Asian (37.2 [SD 10.0]) groups compared with White cohort (46.1 [SD 12.2]). There was a female predominance in all ethnic groups; however, the relative proportion of males was higher in the South Asian population (proportion of women 60.3% vs 71% [White] and 75.7% [Black]). Established modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis-smoking, obesity, infectious mononucleosis, low vitamin D, and head injury-were consistently associated with multiple sclerosis in the Black and South Asian cohorts. The magnitude and direction of these effects were broadly similar across all ethnic groups examined. There was no evidence of statistical interaction between ethnicity and any tested exposure, and no evidence to suggest that differences in area-level deprivation modifies these risk factor-disease associations. These findings were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Established modifiable risk factors for multiple sclerosis are applicable across diverse ethnic backgrounds. Efforts to reduce the population incidence of multiple sclerosis by tackling these risk factors need to be inclusive of people from diverse ethnicities.

Risk of COVID-19 in people with multiple sclerosis who are seronegative following vaccination.

BACKGROUND: People with multiple sclerosis (pwMS) treated with certain disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have attenuated IgG response following COVID-19 vaccination; however, the clinical consequences remain unclear. OBJECTIVE: To report COVID-19 rates in pwMS according to vaccine serology. METHODS: PwMS with available (1) serology 2-12 weeks following COVID-19 vaccine 2 and/or vaccine 3 and (2) clinical data on COVID-19 infection/hospitalisation were included. Logistic regression was performed to examine whether seroconversion following vaccination predicted risk of subsequent COVID-19 infection after adjusting for potential confounders. Rates of severe COVID-19 (requiring hospitalisation) were also calculated. RESULTS: A total of 647 pwMS were included (mean age 48 years, 500 (77%) female, median Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) 3.5% and 524 (81%) exposed to DMT at the time of vaccine 1). Overall, 472 out of 588 (73%) were seropositive after vaccines 1 and 2 and 222 out of 305 (73%) after vaccine 3. Seronegative status after vaccine 2 was associated with significantly higher odds of subsequent COVID-19 infection (odds ratio (OR): 2.35, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.34-4.12, p = 0.0029), whereas seronegative status after vaccine 3 was not (OR: 1.05, 95% CI: 0.57-1.91). Five people (0.8%) experienced severe COVID-19, all of whom were seronegative after most recent vaccination. CONCLUSION: Attenuated humoral response to initial COVID-19 vaccination predicts increased risk of COVID-19 in pwMS, but overall low rates of severe COVID-19 were seen.