Androgen receptor polyQ alleles and COVID-19 severity in men: A replication study.

BACKGROUND: Ample evidence indicates a sex-related difference in severity of COVID-19, with less favorable outcomes observed in men. Genetic factors have been proposed as candidates to explain this difference. The polyglutamine (polyQ) polymorphism in the androgen receptor gene has been recently described as a genetic biomarker of COVID-19 severity. OBJECTIVE: To test the association between the androgen receptor polyQ polymorphism and COVID-19 severity in a large cohort of COVID-19 male patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study included 1136 male patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 as confirmed by positive PCR. Patients were retrospectively and prospectively enrolled from March to November 2020. Patients were classified according to their severity into three categories: oligosymptomatic, hospitalized and severe patients requiring ventilatory support. The number of CAG repeats (polyQ polymorphism) at the androgen receptor was obtained by PCR and patients were classified as either short (<23 repeats) or long (≥23 repeats) allele carriers. The association between polyQ alleles (short or long) and COVID-19 severity was assessed by Chi-squared (Chi2 ) and logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The mean number of polyQ CAG repeats was 22 (±3). Patients were classified as oligosymptomatic (15.5%), hospitalized (63.2%), and severe patients (21.3%) requiring substantial respiratory support. PolyQ alleles distribution did not show significant differences between severity classes in our cohort (Chi2 test p > 0.05). Similar results were observed after adjusting by known risk factors such as age, comorbidities, and ethnicity (multivariate logistic regression analysis). DISCUSSION: Androgen sensitivity may be a critical factor in COVID-19 disease severity. However, we did not find an association between the polyQ polymorphism and the COVID-19 severity. Additional studies are needed to clarify the mechanism underlying the association between androgens and COVID-19 outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The results obtained in our study do not support the role of this polymorphism as biomarker of COVID-19 severity.

IL-6-based mortality prediction model for COVID-19: Validation and update in multicenter and second wave cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a highly variable condition. Validated tools to assist in the early detection of patients at high risk of mortality can help guide medical decisions. OBJECTIVE: We sought to validate externally, as well as in patients from the second pandemic wave in Europe, our previously developed mortality prediction model for hospitalized COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Three validation cohorts were generated: 2 external with 185 and 730 patients from the first wave and 1 internal with 119 patients from the second wave. The probability of death was calculated for all subjects using our prediction model, which includes peripheral blood oxygen saturation/fraction of inspired oxygen ratio, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lactate dehydrogenase, IL-6, and age. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated in the validation cohorts. The prediction model was updated by reestimating individual risk factor effects in the overall cohort (N = 1477). RESULTS: The mortality prediction model showed good performance in the external validation cohorts 1 and 2, and in the second wave validation cohort 3 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.94, 0.86, and 0.86, respectively), with excellent calibration (calibration slope, 0.86, 0.94, and 0.79; intercept, 0.05, 0.03, and 0.10, respectively). The updated model accurately predicted mortality in the overall cohort (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.91), which included patients from both the first and second COVID-19 waves. The updated model was also useful to predict fatal outcome in patients without respiratory distress at the time of evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first COVID-19 mortality prediction model validated in patients from the first and second pandemic waves. The COR+12 online calculator is freely available to facilitate its implementation (https://utrero-rico.shinyapps.io/COR12_Score/).