Threshold Change in CEA as a Predictor of Non-Progression to First-Line Systemic Therapy in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With Elevated CEA.

BACKGROUND: Carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels are used in conjunction with imaging to monitor response to systemic therapy in metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). We sought to identify a threshold for CEA change from baseline to predict progressive disease (PD) in mCRC patients receiving first-line therapy. METHODS: Patients from trials collected in the ARCAD database were included if baseline CEA was at least 10 ng/mL and repeat CEA was available within 14 days of first restaging scan. Optimal cutoffs for CEA change were identified by receiver operating characteristic analysis. Prediction performance of cutoffs was evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, and negative predictive value. Analyses were conducted by treatment class: chemotherapy alone, chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody, and chemotherapy with anti-EGFR antibody. RESULTS: A total of 2643 mCRC patients treated with systemic therapy were included. Median percent change of CEA from baseline to first restaging for patients with complete response, partial response, or stable disease (non-PD) and PD was -53.1% and +23.6% for chemotherapy alone (n = 957) and -71.7% and -45.3% for chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody (n = 1355). The optimal area under the curve cutoff for differentiating PD from non-PD on first restaging was -7.5% for chemotherapy alone and -62.0% for chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody; chemotherapy alone, adjusted odds ratio = 6.51 (95% CI = 3.31 to 12.83, P < .001), chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody, adjusted odds ratio = 3.45 (95% CI = 1.93 to 6.18, P < .001). A 99% negative predictive value clinical cutoff for prediction of non-PD would avoid CT scan at first restaging in 21.0% of chemotherapy alone and 16.2% of chemotherapy with anti-VEGF antibody-treated patients. Among patients with stable disease on first restaging, those with decreased CEA from baseline had statistically significantly improved progression-free and overall survival. CONCLUSIONS: Change in CEA from baseline to first restaging can accurately predict non-progression and correlates with long-term outcomes in patients receiving systemic chemotherapy.

Relationship of hepatic functional imaging to irinotecan pharmacokinetics and genetic parameters of drug elimination.

PURPOSE: The marked variability of irinotecan (Ir) clearance warrants individualized dosing based on hepatic drug handling. The aims of this trial were to identify parameters from functional hepatic nuclear imaging (HNI) that correlate with (1) Ir pharmacology, and (2) single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for the ABCB1 (P-glycoprotein) and UGT-1A1 genes, known to influence Ir handling. METHODS: Patients underwent genotyping for ABCB1 SNPs and UTUGT-1A1*28 carriage and HNI with 99mTc-DIDA (acetanilidoiminodiacetic acid)/99mTc-DISIDA (disofenin) and MIBI (99mTc-sestamibi) scans, probes for biliary transport proteins ABCC1 and -2, and ABCB1 function. HNI data were analyzed by noncompartmental and deconvolutional analysis to provide hepatic extraction and biliary excretion parameters. Patients received Ir, fluorouracil, and folinic acid using a weekly x2, every-3-weeks schedule. Plasma was taken for Ir and SN-38 analysis on day 1, cycle 1. RESULTS: Of the 21 patients accrued, Ir pharmacokinetics data were obtained from 16 patients. 99mTc-DIDA/DISIDA percent retention at 1 hour (1-hour RET) correlated to baseline serum bilirubin (P = .008). Both 99mTc-DIDA/DISIDA and MIBI 1-hour RET correlated with SN-38 area under the curve (AUC; P < .01). On multiple regression analysis, SN-38 AUC = -215 + 18.68 x bilirubin + 4.27 x MIBI 1-hour RET (P = .009, R2 = 44.2%). HNI parameters did not correlate with Ir toxicity or UGT1A1*28 carriage. MIBI excretion was prolonged in patients with the ABCB1 exon 26 TT variant allele relative to wild-type (P = .015). CONCLUSION: Functional imaging of hepatic uptake and excretory pathways may have potential to predict Ir pharmacokinetics. Evaluation of a larger cohort as well as polymorphisms in other biliary transporters and UGT1A1 alleles is warranted.