Interoperability of statistical models in pandemic preparedness: principles and reality.

We present interoperability as a guiding framework for statistical modelling to assist policy makers asking multiple questions using diverse datasets in the face of an evolving pandemic response. Interoperability provides an important set of principles for future pandemic preparedness, through the joint design and deployment of adaptable systems of statistical models for disease surveillance using probabilistic reasoning. We illustrate this through case studies for inferring and characterising spatial-temporal prevalence and reproduction numbers of SARS-CoV-2 infections in England.

Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.

Governments are attempting to control the COVID-19 pandemic with nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). However, the effectiveness of different NPIs at reducing transmission is poorly understood. We gathered chronological data on the implementation of NPIs for several European and non-European countries between January and the end of May 2020. We estimated the effectiveness of these NPIs, which range from limiting gathering sizes and closing businesses or educational institutions to stay-at-home orders. To do so, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model that links NPI implementation dates to national case and death counts and supported the results with extensive empirical validation. Closing all educational institutions, limiting gatherings to 10 people or less, and closing face-to-face businesses each reduced transmission considerably. The additional effect of stay-at-home orders was comparatively small.

DeepC: predicting 3D genome folding using megabase-scale transfer learning.

Predicting the impact of noncoding genetic variation requires interpreting it in the context of three-dimensional genome architecture. We have developed deepC, a transfer-learning-based deep neural network that accurately predicts genome folding from megabase-scale DNA sequence. DeepC predicts domain boundaries at high resolution, learns the sequence determinants of genome folding and predicts the impact of both large-scale structural and single base-pair variations.

AI for social good: unlocking the opportunity for positive impact.

Advances in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) present an opportunity to build better tools and solutions to help address some of the world's most pressing challenges, and deliver positive social impact in accordance with the priorities outlined in the United Nations' 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The AI for Social Good (AI4SG) movement aims to establish interdisciplinary partnerships centred around AI applications towards SDGs. We provide a set of guidelines for establishing successful long-term collaborations between AI researchers and application-domain experts, relate them to existing AI4SG projects and identify key opportunities for future AI applications targeted towards social good.

Rediscovery of Good-Turing estimators via Bayesian nonparametrics.

The problem of estimating discovery probabilities originated in the context of statistical ecology, and in recent years it has become popular due to its frequent appearance in challenging applications arising in genetics, bioinformatics, linguistics, designs of experiments, machine learning, etc. A full range of statistical approaches, parametric and nonparametric as well as frequentist and Bayesian, has been proposed for estimating discovery probabilities. In this article, we investigate the relationships between the celebrated Good-Turing approach, which is a frequentist nonparametric approach developed in the 1940s, and a Bayesian nonparametric approach recently introduced in the literature. Specifically, under the assumption of a two parameter Poisson-Dirichlet prior, we show that Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities are asymptotically equivalent, for a large sample size, to suitably smoothed Good-Turing estimators. As a by-product of this result, we introduce and investigate a methodology for deriving exact and asymptotic credible intervals to be associated with the Bayesian nonparametric estimators of discovery probabilities. The proposed methodology is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study and the analysis of Expressed Sequence Tags data generated by sequencing a benchmark complementary DNA library.

A fast learning algorithm for deep belief nets.

We show how to use "complementary priors" to eliminate the explaining-away effects that make inference difficult in densely connected belief nets that have many hidden layers. Using complementary priors, we derive a fast, greedy algorithm that can learn deep, directed belief networks one layer at a time, provided the top two layers form an undirected associative memory. The fast, greedy algorithm is used to initialize a slower learning procedure that fine-tunes the weights using a contrastive version of the wake-sleep algorithm. After fine-tuning, a network with three hidden layers forms a very good generative model of the joint distribution of handwritten digit images and their labels. This generative model gives better digit classification than the best discriminative learning algorithms. The low-dimensional manifolds on which the digits lie are modeled by long ravines in the free-energy landscape of the top-level associative memory, and it is easy to explore these ravines by using the directed connections to display what the associative memory has in mind.

Unsupervised discovery of nonlinear structure using contrastive backpropagation.

We describe a way of modeling high-dimensional data vectors by using an unsupervised, nonlinear, multilayer neural network in which the activity of each neuron-like unit makes an additive contribution to a global energy score that indicates how surprised the network is by the data vector. The connection weights that determine how the activity of each unit depends on the activities in earlier layers are learned by minimizing the energy assigned to data vectors that are actually observed and maximizing the energy assigned to "confabulations" that are generated by perturbing an observed data vector in a direction that decreases its energy under the current model.

Linear response algorithms for approximate inference in graphical models.

Belief propagation (BP) on cyclic graphs is an efficient algorithm for computing approximate marginal probability distributions over single nodes and neighboring nodes in the graph. However, it does not prescribe a way to compute joint distributions over pairs of distant nodes in the graph. In this article, we propose two new algorithms for approximating these pairwise probabilities, based on the linear response theorem. The first is a propagation algorithm that is shown to converge if BP converges to a stable fixed point. The second algorithm is based on matrix inversion. Applying these ideas to gaussian random fields, we derive a propagation algorithm for computing the inverse of a matrix.