Integration of individual preclinical and clinical anti-infective PKPD data to predict clinical study outcomes.

The AIDA randomized clinical trial found no significant difference in clinical failure or survival between colistin monotherapy and colistin-meropenem combination therapy in carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative infections. The aim of this reverse translational study was to integrate all individual preclinical and clinical pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PKPD) data from the AIDA trial in a pharmacometric framework to explore whether individualized predictions of bacterial burden were associated with the trial outcomes. The compiled dataset included for each of the 207 patients was (i) information on the infecting Acinetobacter baumannii isolate (minimum inhibitory concentration, checkerboard assay data, and fitness in a murine model), (ii) colistin plasma concentrations and colistin and meropenem dosing history, and (iii) disease scores and demographics. The individual information was integrated into PKPD models, and the predicted change in bacterial count at 24 h for each patient, as well as patient characteristics, was correlated with clinical outcomes using logistic regression. The in vivo fitness was the most important factor for change in bacterial count. A model-predicted growth at 24 h of ≥2-log10 (164/207) correlated positively with clinical failure (adjusted odds ratio, aOR = 2.01). The aOR for one unit increase of other significant predictors were 1.24 for SOFA score, 1.19 for Charlson comorbidity index, and 1.01 for age. This study exemplifies how preclinical and clinical anti-infective PKPD data can be integrated through pharmacodynamic modeling and identify patient- and pathogen-specific factors related to clinical outcomes - an approach that may improve understanding of study outcomes.

Expanding antibiotic, vaccine, and diagnostics development and access to tackle antimicrobial resistance.

The increasing number of bacterial infections globally that do not respond to any available antibiotics indicates a need to invest in-and ensure access to-new antibiotics, vaccines, and diagnostics. The traditional model of drug development, which depends on substantial revenues to motivate investment, is no longer economically viable without push and pull incentives. Moreover, drugs developed through these mechanisms are unlikely to be affordable for all patients in need, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. New, publicly funded models based on public-private partnerships could support investment in antibiotics and novel alternatives, and lower patients' out-of-pocket costs, making drugs more accessible. Cost reductions can be achieved with public goods, such as clinical trial networks and platform-based quality assurance, manufacturing, and product development support. Preserving antibiotic effectiveness relies on accurate and timely diagnosis; however scaling up diagnostics faces technological, economic, and behavioural challenges. New technologies appeared during the COVID-19 pandemic, but there is a need for a deeper understanding of market, physician, and consumer behaviour to improve the use of diagnostics in patient management. Ensuring sustainable access to antibiotics also requires infection prevention. Vaccines offer the potential to prevent infections from drug-resistant pathogens, but funding for vaccine development has been scarce in this context. The High-Level Meeting of the UN General Assembly in 2024 offers an opportunity to rethink how research and development can be reoriented to serve disease management, prevention, patient access, and antibiotic stewardship.

Unrealized targets in the discovery of antibiotics for Gram-negative bacterial infections.

Advances in areas that include genomics, systems biology, protein structure determination and artificial intelligence provide new opportunities for target-based antibacterial drug discovery. The selection of a 'good' new target for direct-acting antibacterial compounds is the first decision, for which multiple criteria must be explored, integrated and re-evaluated as drug discovery programmes progress. Criteria include essentiality of the target for bacterial survival, its conservation across different strains of the same species, bacterial species and growth conditions (which determines the spectrum of activity of a potential antibiotic) and the level of homology with human genes (which influences the potential for selective inhibition). Additionally, a bacterial target should have the potential to bind to drug-like molecules, and its subcellular location will govern the need for inhibitors to penetrate one or two bacterial membranes, which is a key challenge in targeting Gram-negative bacteria. The risk of the emergence of target-based drug resistance for drugs with single targets also requires consideration. This Review describes promising but as-yet-unrealized targets for antibacterial drugs against Gram-negative bacteria and examples of cognate inhibitors, and highlights lessons learned from past drug discovery programmes.

Evaluating the innovative potential of the global antibacterial pipeline.

BACKGROUND: Resistance burden varies widely among WHO regions, and the potential impact of new antibiotics differs in addressing the WHO's critical priority pathogens' resistance challenge. OBJECTIVES: To analyse the current global clinical pipeline in line with public and global health concerns and define innovation in antibacterial drug discovery. SOURCES: Monitoring clinical pipelines since 2006, integrating peer-reviewed MEDLINE publications on clinical development of new antibacterial agents, supplemented with disclosed data from developers. CONTENT: The current clinical pipeline is dominated by derivatives of established antibiotic classes, primarily ß-lactamase inhibitor combinations in Phase 3 (six of ten which also include two beta-lactams without ß-lactamase inhibitor). This pattern extends to Phase 1. Although incremental improvements in susceptibility rates among derivatives benefit patients in advanced health care systems within specific geographical regions, these concepts are not adequate for carbapenem-resistant strains of Enterobacterales (especially Klebsiella and Escherichia coli), Acinetobacter, and Pseudomonas. This limitation arises from the diverse distribution of resistance mechanisms across global regions. Innovation in this context refers to absence of cross-resistance because of class-specific resistance mechanisms. This can most likely be achieved by exploring new chemical classes and new targets/binding sites, and new mode of action. An initial glimpse of progress is evident as innovative agents progressed to Phase 1 clinical trials. However, an influx of more agents advancing to clinical development is essential given the inherent risks associated with novel chemistry and targets. IMPLICATIONS: The limited innovation in the global clinical pipeline inadequately serves public and global health interests. The complexities of antibacterial drug discovery, from scientific challenges to financial constraints, underscore the need for collective researcher efforts and public support to drive innovation for patients globally.

Prevalence and Clinical Consequences of Colistin Heteroresistance and Evolution into Full Resistance in Carbapenem-Resistant Acinetobacter baumannii.

Colistin heteroresistance (HR) refers to a bacterial population comprised of several subpopulations with different levels of resistance to colistin. In this study, we discuss the classic form of HR, in which a resistant subpopulation exists within a predominantly susceptible population. We investigated the prevalence of colistin HR and its evolution into full resistance among 173 clinical carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii isolates and examined the effect of HR on clinical outcomes. To determine HR, we performed population analysis profiling. Our results showed a high prevalence of HR (67.1%). To examine evolution of HR strains into full resistance, the HR strains were grown in colistin-containing broth, transferred onto colistin-containing plates, and colonies on these plates were transferred into colistin-free broth. Many of the HR strains (80.2%) evolved into full resistance, 17.2% reverted to HR, and 2.6% were borderline. We used logistic regression to compare 14-day clinical failure and 14-day mortality between patients infected by HR versus susceptible non-HR carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii. In the subgroup of patients with bacteremia, HR was significantly associated with 14-day mortality. IMPORTANCE To our knowledge, this is the first large-scale study to report on HR in Gram-negative bacteria. We described the prevalence of colistin HR in a large sample of carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolates, the evolution of many colistin HR isolates to a resistant phenotype following colistin exposure and withdrawal, and the clinical consequences of colistin HR. We found a high prevalence of HR among clinical carbapenem-resistant A. baumannii isolates; most evolved into a resistant phenotype following colistin exposure and withdrawal. In patients treated with colistin, evolution of HR A. baumannii into full resistance could lead to higher rates of treatment failure and contribute to the reservoir of colistin-resistant pathogens in health care settings.

Challenges and shortcomings of antibacterial discovery projects.

OBJECTIVES: Antibacterial drug discovery activities are essential for filling clinical pipelines with promising clinical candidates. Little information is available about the challenges and shortcomings of small companies and academic institutions in performing these important discovery tasks. METHODS: We performed a content analysis of 463 reviewer comments on 91 funding applications of antibacterial drug discovery projects submitted to two major global funders between 2016 and 2020 that had not proceeded further in the selection process. This quality assessment was complemented with the inputs (via e-mail) from a panel involving six antibiotic research and development (R&D) experts with long-standing expertise and experience in antibiotic drug discovery. RESULTS: Common critical comments of reviewers are grouped into three main categories: scientific and technical shortcomings, unclear potential societal impact, and insufficient capability and expertise of the project team regarding the R&D process. Insufficient characterization of in vitro activity and/or testing of the hits/leads and insufficient antibacterial activity were the most common critical comments. Other areas of concern were insufficient or lack of differentiation from available drugs or projects with a long R&D history, and the research team's insufficient knowledge of a structured streamlined R&D process as reflected in severe gaps in the expertise of the R&D team. Little appreciation for the problem of the emergence of target-based resistance, especially in single-target approaches, and little awareness of toxicological issues, including approaches with historical liabilities were also commonly mentioned. The shortcomings identified through the analysis of funding applications are echoed by the results of the expert panel. DISCUSSION: Our analysis identified an urgent need of strengthening the support for antibacterial drug discovery teams to help more projects reach such a quality to be eligible for global funders and private investors.

Research priorities towards precision antibiotic therapy to improve patient care.

Antibiotic resistance presents an incessant threat to our drug armamentarium that necessitates novel approaches to therapy. Over the past several decades, investigation of pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PKPD) principles has substantially improved our understanding of the relationships between the antibiotic, pathogen, and infected patient. However, crucial gaps in our understanding of the pharmacology of antibacterials and their optimal use in the care of patients continue to exist; simply attaining antibiotic exposures that are considered adequate based on traditional targets can still result in treatment being unsuccessful and resistance proliferation for some infections. It is this salient paradox that points to key future directions for research in antibiotic therapeutics. This Personal View discusses six priority areas for antibiotic pharmacology research: (1) antibiotic-pathogen interactions, (2) antibiotic targets for combination therapy, (3) mechanistic models that describe the time-course of treatment response, (4) understanding and modelling of host response to infection, (5) personalised medicine through therapeutic drug management, and (6) application of these principles to support development of novel therapies. Innovative approaches that enhance our understanding of antibiotic pharmacology and facilitate more accurate predictions of treatment success, coupled with traditional pharmacology research, can be applied at the population level and to individual patients to improve outcomes.

Large-scale WGS of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii isolates reveals patterns of dissemination of ST clades associated with antibiotic resistance.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the population genetics and antibiotic resistance gene distribution of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) isolates causing infections in three Mediterranean countries. METHODS: Isolates were collected during the 2013-17 AIDA clinical trial in six hospitals in Israel, Greece and Italy. WGS, bioinformatic characterization and antibiotic resistance profiling were performed. RESULTS: In the 247 CRAB isolates characterized in this study, ST distribution varied by country: 29/31 (93.5%) Greek isolates, 34/41 (82.9%) Italian isolates and 70/175 (40.0%) Israeli isolates belonged to ST2. The identified ST2 isolates included eight distinct clades: 2C, 2D and 2H were significantly more common in Italy, while 2F was unique to Greece. The uncommon ST3 was not present among Greek isolates and constituted only 5/41 (12%) Italian isolates. On the other hand, it was much more common among Israeli isolates: 78/175 (44.6%) belonged to ST3. The vast majority of isolates, 240/247 (97.2%), were found to harbour acquired carbapenemases, primarily blaOXA-23. The chromosomal oxaAb (blaOXA-51-like) and ampC genes characteristic of this organism were also ubiquitous. Most (96.4%) ST3 isolates carried a broad-host-range plasmid IncP1α. CONCLUSIONS: The geographical differences in CRAB populations support the theory that clonal spread of CRAB leads to endemicity in hospitals and regions. The close association between antibiotic resistance genes and clades, and between plasmids and STs, suggest that de novo creation of MDR A. baumannii is rare. The clustering of antibiotic resistance genes and plasmids that is unique to each clade/ST, and nearly uniform within clades/STs, suggests that horizontal transmission is rare but crucial to the clade's/ST's success.

In vivo fitness of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii strains in murine infection is associated with treatment failure in human infections.

OBJECTIVES: Mortality among patients with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (CRAB) infections varies between studies. We examined whether in vivo fitness of CRAB strains is associated with clinical outcomes in patients with CRAB infections. METHODS: Isolates were collected from patients enrolled in the AIDA trial with hospital-acquired pneumonia, bloodstream infections and/or urinary tract infections caused by CRAB. The primary outcome was 14-day clinical failure, defined as failure to meet all criteria: alive; haemodynamically stable; improved or stable Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score; improved or stable oxygenation; and microbiological cure of bacteraemia. The secondary outcome was 14-day mortality. We tested in vivo growth using a neutropenic murine thigh infection model. Fitness was defined based on the CFU count 24 hours after injection of an inoculum of 105 CFU. We used mixed-effects logistic regression to test the association between fitness and the two outcomes. RESULTS: The sample included 266 patients; 215 (80.8%) experienced clinical failure. CRAB fitness ranged from 5.23 to 10.08 log CFU/g. The odds of clinical failure increased by 62% for every 1-log CFU/g increase in fitness (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.04-2.52). After adjusting for age, Charlson score, SOFA score and acquisition in the intensive care unit, fitness remained significant (adjusted OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.03-2.59). CRAB fitness had a similar effect on 14-day mortailty, although the association was not statistically significant (OR 1.56, 95% CI 0.95-2.57). It became significant after adjusting for age, Charlson score, SOFA score and recent surgery (adjusted OR 1.88, 95% CI 1.09-3.25). CONCLUSIONS: In vivo CRAB fitness was associated with clinical failure in patients with CRAB infection.

Excluded versus included patients in a randomized controlled trial of infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria: relevance to external validity.

BACKGROUND: Population external validity is the extent to which an experimental study results can be generalized from a specific sample to a defined population. In order to apply the results of a study, we should be able to assess its population external validity. We performed an investigator-initiated randomized controlled trial (RCT) (AIDA study), which compared colistin-meropenem combination therapy to colistin monotherapy in the treatment of patients infected with carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. In order to examine the study's population external validity and to substantiate the use of AIDA study results in clinical practice, we performed a concomitant observational trial. METHODS: The study was conducted between October 1st, 2013 and January 31st, 2017 (during the RCTs recruitment period) in Greece, Israel and Italy. Patients included in the observational arm of the study have fulfilled clinical and microbiological inclusion criteria but were excluded from the RCT due to receipt of colistin for > 96 h, refusal to participate, or prior inclusion in the RCT. Non-randomized cases were compared to randomized patients. The primary outcome was clinical failure at 14 days of infection onset. RESULTS: Analysis included 701 patients. Patients were infected mainly with Acinetobacter baumannii [78.2% (548/701)]. The most common reason for exclusion was refusal to participate [62% (183/295)]. Non-randomized and randomized patients were similar in most of the demographic and background parameters, though randomized patients showed minor differences towards a more severe infection. Combination therapy was less common in non-randomized patients [31.9% (53/166) vs. 51.2% (208/406), p = 0.000]. Randomized patients received longer treatment of colistin [13 days (IQR 10-16) vs. 8.5 days (IQR 0-15), p = 0.000]. Univariate analysis showed that non-randomized patients were more inclined to clinical failure on day 14 from infection onset [82% (242/295) vs. 75.5% (307/406), p = 0.042]. After adjusting for other variables, non-inclusion was not an independent risk factor for clinical failure at day 14. CONCLUSION: The similarity between the observational arm and RCT patients has strengthened our confidence in the population external validity of the AIDA trial. Adding an observational arm to intervention studies can help increase the population external validity and improve implementation of study results in clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01732250 on November 22, 2012.

Role of new antibiotics for KPC-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae.

Klebsiella pneumoniae has accumulated a wide range of resistance determinants and has evolved into a difficult-to-treat pathogen that poses an increasing healthcare threat. KPC is an important marker for extensively drug-resistant (XDR) organisms with limited treatment options. In response to the medical need for new treatment options, several new antibiotics have been developed and registered recently. The ß-lactamase inhibitor (BLI) combinations ceftazidime/avibactam, meropenem/vaborbactam and imipenem/relebactam, the cephalosporin-siderophore conjugate cefiderocol, the aminoglycoside derivative plazomicin and the tetracycline derivative eravacycline, focus on carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales. These modified agents from old antibiotic classes illustrate the challenges of this requirement to address class-specific resistance mechanisms while critical gaps and some cross-resistance within a class, or to unrelated antibiotic classes, remain. The diverse molecular mechanisms and increasing diversification of carbapenem resistance among Klebsiella isolates requires improved rapid molecular diagnostic capabilities and stringent stewardship programmes to preserve the efficacy of new antibiotics for as long as possible.

Investigator-initiated Randomized Controlled Trials in Infectious Diseases: Better Value for Money for Registration Trials of New Antimicrobials.

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) conducted by the industry are expensive, especially trials conducted for registration of new drugs for multidrug-resistant (MDR) bacteria. Lower-cost investigator-initiated trials have recently been successful in recruiting patients with severe infections caused by MDR bacteria. In this viewpoint, we contrast the aims, methods, and resulting costs of industry-led and investigator-initiated trials and ask whether contemporary registration trial costs are justified. Contract research organizations, delivering and monitoring industry-sponsored trials at a significant cost, have little incentive to make trials more efficient or less expensive. The value of universal monitoring of all trial data is questionable. We propose that clinical trial networks play a more influential role in RCT design and planning, lead adaptive risk-based trial monitoring, and work with the industry to maximize efficient recruitment and lower costs in registration trials for the approval of new antimicrobials.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic considerations for new and current therapeutic drugs for uncomplicated gonorrhoea-challenges and opportunities.

BACKGROUND: Increasing multidrug resistance rates in Neisseria gonorrhoeae have raised concerns and an urgent call for new antibiotics for treatment of gonorrhoea. Several decades of subdued drug development in this field and the recent failures of two new antibiotics to show non-inferiority compared with the current first-line antibiotics ceftriaxone plus azithromycin highlight the need for improved preclinical tools to predict clinical outcome of new drugs in the development process. OBJECTIVES: To summarize current pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) knowledge and dose-finding strategies for antibiotics against gonorrhoea. SOURCES: Literature review of published papers and discussions by global experts at a special workshop on this topic. CONTENT: We review current knowledge of gonococcal specific PK/PD principles and provide an update on new in vitro and in vivo models to correlate drug exposure with clinical outcome, and identify challenges and gaps in gonococcal therapeutic research. IMPLICATIONS: Identifying the ideal antimicrobial agent and dose for treating uncomplicated urogenital and pharyngeal gonococcal disease requires appropriate validated non-clinical PK/PD models. Recent advances in adapting in vitro and in vivo models for use in gonorrhoea are an important step for enabling the development of new drugs with reduced risk of failure in Phase 3 clinical development and diminish the risk of emergence of resistance.

Colistin plus meropenem for carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative infections: in vitro synergism is not associated with better clinical outcomes.

OBJECTIVES: In vitro models showing synergism between polymyxins and carbapenems support combination treatment for carbapenem-resistant Gram-negative (CRGN) infections. We tested the association between the presence of in vitro synergism and clinical outcomes in patients treated with colistin plus meropenem. METHODS: This was a secondary analysis of AIDA, a randomized controlled trial comparing colistin with colistin-meropenem for severe CRGN infections. We tested in vitro synergism using a checkerboard assay. Based on the fractional inhibitory concentration (ΣFIC) index for each colistin-meropenem combination, we categorized results as synergistic, antagonistic or additive/indifferent. The primary outcome was clinical failure at 14 days. Secondary outcomes were 14- and 28-day mortality and microbiological failure. RESULTS: The sample included 171 patients with infections caused by carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (n = 131), Enterobacteriaceae (n = 37) and Pseudomonas aeuruginosa (n = 3). In vitro testing showed synergism for 73 isolates, antagonism for 20 and additivism/indifference for 78. In patients who received any colistin plus meropenem, clinical failure at 14 days was 59/78 (75.6%) in the additivism/indifference group (reference category), 54/73 (74.0%) in the synergism group (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.76, 95% CI 0.31-1.83), and 11/20 (55%) in the antagonism group (aOR 0.77, 95% CI 0.22-2.73). There was no significant difference between groups for any secondary outcome. Comparing the synergism group to patients treated with colistin monotherapy, synergism was not protective against 14-day clinical failure (aOR 0.52, 95% CI 0.26-1.04) or 14-day mortality (aOR1.09, 95% CI 0.60-1.96). DISCUSSION: In vitro synergism between colistin and meropenem via checkerboard method did not translate into clinical benefit.

Critical analysis of antibacterial agents in clinical development.

The antibacterial agents currently in clinical development are predominantly derivatives of well-established antibiotic classes and were selected to address the class-specific resistance mechanisms and determinants that were known at the time of their discovery. Many of these agents aim to target the antibiotic-resistant priority pathogens listed by the WHO, including Gram-negative bacteria in the critical priority category, such as carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter, Pseudomonas and Enterobacterales. Although some current compounds in the pipeline have exhibited increased susceptibility rates in surveillance studies that depend on geography, pre-existing cross-resistance both within and across antibacterial classes limits the activity of many of the new agents against the most extensively drug-resistant (XDR) and pan-drug-resistant (PDR) Gram-negative pathogens. In particular, cross-resistance to unrelated classes may occur by co-selection of resistant strains, thus leading to the rapid emergence and subsequent spread of resistance. There is a continued need for innovation and new-class antibacterial agents in order to provide effective therapeutic options against infections specifically caused by XDR and PDR Gram-negative bacteria.

The global preclinical antibacterial pipeline.

Antibacterial resistance is a great concern and requires global action. A critical question is whether enough new antibacterial drugs are being discovered and developed. A review of the clinical antibacterial drug pipeline was recently published, but comprehensive information about the global preclinical pipeline is unavailable. This Review focuses on discovery and preclinical development projects and has found, as of 1 May 2019, 407 antibacterial projects from 314 institutions. The focus is on Gram-negative pathogens, particularly bacteria on the WHO priority bacteria list. The preclinical pipeline is characterized by high levels of diversity and interesting scientific concepts, with 135 projects on direct-acting small molecules that represent new classes, new targets or new mechanisms of action. There is also a strong trend towards non-traditional approaches, including diverse antivirulence approaches, microbiome-modifying strategies, and engineered phages and probiotics. The high number of pathogen-specific and adjunctive approaches is unprecedented in antibiotic history. Translational hurdles are not adequately addressed yet, especially development pathways to show clinical impact of non-traditional approaches. The innovative potential of the preclinical pipeline compared with the clinical pipeline is encouraging but fragile. Much more work, focus and funding are needed for the novel approaches to result in effective antibacterial therapies to sustainably combat antibacterial resistance.