Issues, Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluations of Orphan Drugs in Rare Diseases: An Umbrella Review.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are significant challenges when obtaining clinical and economic evidence for health technology assessments of rare diseases. Many of them have been highlighted in previous systematic reviews but they have not been summarised in a comprehensive manner. For all stakeholders working with rare diseases, it is important to be aware and understand these issues. The objective of this review is to identify the main challenges for the economic evaluation of orphan drugs in rare diseases. METHODS: An umbrella review of systematic reviews of economic studies concerned with orphan and ultra-orphan drugs was conducted. Studies that were not systematic reviews, or on advanced therapeutic medicinal products, personalised medicines or other interventions that were not considered orphan drugs were excluded. The database searches included publications from 2010 to 2023, and were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library using filters for systematic reviews, and economic evaluations and models. These filters were combined with search terms for rare diseases and orphan drugs. A hand search supplemented the literature searches. The findings were reported by a compliant Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram. RESULTS: Two hundred and eighty-two records were identified from the literature searches, of which 64 were duplicates, whereas five reviews were identified from the hand search. A total of 36 reviews were included after screening against inclusion/exclusion criteria, 35 from literature searches and one from hand searching. Of those studies 1, 27 and 8 were low, moderate and high quality, respectively. The reviews highlight the scarcity of evidence for health economic parameters, for example, clinical effectiveness, costs, quality of life and the natural history of disease. Health economic evaluations such as cost-effectiveness and budget-impact analyses were scarce, and generally low-to-moderate quality. The causes were limited health economic parameters, together with publications bias, especially for cost-effectiveness analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlighted issues around a considerable paucity of evidence for economic evaluations and few cost-effectiveness analyses, supporting the notion that a paucity of evidence makes economic evaluations of rare diseases more challenging compared with more prevalent diseases. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for more sustainable approaches in economic evaluations of rare diseases.

Understanding breast cancer patient pathways and their impact on survival in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Understanding patient pathways from discovery of breast symptoms to treatment start can aid in identifying ways to improve access to timely cancer care. This study aimed to describe the patient pathways experienced by uninsured women from detection to treatment initiation for breast cancer in Mexico City and estimate the potential impact of earlier treatment on patient survival. METHODS: We used process mining, a data analytics technique, to create maps of the patient pathways. We then compared the waiting times and pathways between patients who initially consulted a private service versus those who sought care at a public health service. Finally, we conducted scenario modelling to estimate the impact of early diagnosis and treatment on patient survival. RESULTS: Our study revealed a common pathway followed by breast cancer patients treated at the two largest public cancer centres in Mexico City. However, patients who initially sought care in private clinics experienced shorter mean wait times for their first medical consultation (66 vs 88 days), and diagnostic confirmation of cancer (57 vs 71 days) compared to those who initially utilized public clinics. Our scenario modelling indicated that improving early diagnosis to achieve at least 60% of patients starting treatment at early stages could increase mean patient survival by up to two years. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the potential of process mining to inform healthcare policy for improvement of breast cancer care in Mexico. Also, our findings indicate that reducing diagnostic and treatment intervals for breast cancer patients could result in substantially better patient outcomes. POLICY SUMMARY: This study revealed significant differences in time intervals along the pathways of women with breast cancer according to the type of health service first consulted by the patients: whether public primary care clinics or private doctors. Policies directed to reduce these inequities in access to timely cancer care are desperately needed to reduce socioeconomic disparities in breast cancer survival.

Flexor Injury Rehabilitation Splint Trial (FIRST): protocol for a pragmatic randomised controlled trial comparing three splints for finger flexor tendon repairs.

BACKGROUND: Without surgical repair, flexor tendon injuries do not heal and patients' ability to bend fingers and grip objects is impaired. However, flexor tendon repair surgery also requires optimal rehabilitation. There are currently three custom-made splints used in the rehabilitation of zone I/II flexor tendon repairs, each with different assumed harm/benefit profiles: the dorsal forearm and hand-based splint (long), the Manchester short splint (short), and the relative motion flexion splint (mini). There is, however, no robust evidence as to which splint, if any, is most clinical or cost effective. The Flexor Injury Rehabilitation Splint Trial (FIRST) was designed to address this evidence gap. METHODS: FIRST is a parallel group, superiority, analyst-blind, multi-centre, individual participant-randomised controlled trial. Participants will be assigned 1:1:1 to receive either the long, short, or mini splint. We aim to recruit 429 participants undergoing rehabilitation following zone I/II flexor tendon repair surgery. Potential participants will initially be identified prior to surgery, in NHS hand clinics across the UK, and consented and randomised at their splint fitting appointment post-surgery. The primary outcome will be the mean post-randomisation score on the patient-reported wrist and hand evaluation measure (PRWHE), assessed at 6, 12, 26, and 52 weeks post randomisation. Secondary outcome measures include blinded grip strength and active range of movement (AROM) assessments, adverse events, adherence to the splinting protocol (measured via temperature sensors inserted into the splints), quality of life assessment, and further patient-reported outcomes. An economic evaluation will assess the cost-effectiveness of each splint, and a qualitative sub-study will evaluate participants' preferences for, and experiences of wearing, the splints. Furthermore, a mediation analysis will determine the relationship between patient preferences, splint adherence, and splint effectiveness. DISCUSSION: FIRST will compare the three splints with respect to clinical efficacy, complications, quality of life and cost-effectiveness. FIRST is a pragmatic trial which will recruit from 26 NHS sites to allow findings to be generalisable to current clinical practice in the UK. It will also provide significant insights into patient experiences of splint wear and how adherence to splinting may impact outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN: 10236011.

Cost-effectiveness of spinal muscular atrophy newborn screening based on real-world data in Belgium.

The objective of the study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of real-world spinal muscular atrophy newborn screening followed by treatment. We modeled the lifetime cost-effectiveness of the spinal muscular atrophy newborn screening followed by treatment (screening) compared to treatment without screening (no screening) from the Belgian healthcare perspective. Real-world data, including quality of life, costs, and motor development data, were collected on 12 patients identified by screening and 43 patients identified by their symptoms. "Screening" was associated with slightly higher healthcare costs (€ 6,858,061 vs. € 6,738,120) but more quality-adjusted life years (QALY) (40.95 vs. 20.34) compared to "no screening", leading to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of € 5,820 per QALY gained. "Screening" was dominant from a societal perspective (negative incremental costs: € -14,457; incremental QALY = 20.61), when incorporating the burden on caregivers (negative incremental costs = € -74,353; incremental QALY = 27.51), and when the treatment was chosen by the parents (negative incremental costs = € -2,596,748; incremental QALY = 20.61). Spinal muscular atrophy newborn screening coupled with early treatment is thus cost-effective compared with late treatment following clinical diagnosis and is dominant when societal perspective, caregiver burden, and treatment based on parental preference were considered.

Gene therapies for sickle cell disease: Effectiveness and value.

DISCLOSURES: Drs. Nikitin, McKenna, Rind, Nhan, and Pearson report grants from Arnold Ventures, grants from Blue Cross Blue Shield of MA, grants from California Healthcare Foundation, grants from The Commonwealth Fund, grants from The Patrick and Catherine Weldon Donaghue Medical Research Foundation, during the conduct of the study; other from America's Health Insurance Plans, other from Anthem, other from AbbVie, other from Alnylam, other from AstraZeneca, other from Biogen, other from Blue Shield of CA, other from CVS, other from Editas, other from Express Scripts, other from Genentech/Roche, other from GlaxoSmithKline, other from Harvard Pilgrim, other from Health Care Service Corporation, other from Kaiser Permanente, other from LEO Pharma, other from Mallinckrodt, other from Merck, other from Novartis, other from National Pharmaceutical Council, other from Premera, other from Prime Therapeutics, other from Regeneron, other from Sanofi, other from United Healthcare, other from HealthFirst, other from Pfizer, other from Boehringer-Ingelheim, other from uniQure, other from Envolve Pharmacy Solutions, other from Humana, other from Sunlife, outside the submitted work.

Relationship Between Standardized Measures of Chronic Kidney Disease-associated Pruritus Intensity and Health-related Quality of Life Measured with the EQ-5D Questionnaire: A Mapping Study.

Chronic kidney disease-associated pruritus is linked with decreased health-related quality of life assessed using disease-specific instruments. The extent to which worsening pruritus reduces generic quality of life assessed using the EQ-5D instrument is unknown. Prevalent kidney failure patients receiving in-centre haemodialysis from 5 centres completed the EQ-5D-5L quality of life measure, worst Itching Intensity Numerical Rating Scale and 5-D itch pruritus instruments. Latent class models were used to identify clusters of patients with similarly affected body parts, and mixture models were used to map the pruritus measures to the EQ-5D. Data on 487 respondents were obtained. Latent class analysis identified 3 groups of patients who had progressively worsening severity and an increasing number of body parts affected. Although the worst itching intensity numerical rating scale and 5-D itch instruments correlated with each other, only the latter had a strong relationship with EQ-5D. When controlling for age, sex, diabetes and years receiving dialysis, the meanpredicted EQ-5D utility (1: perfect health, 0: dead) decreased progressively from 0.69 to 0.41. These findings suggest that pruritus instruments that include domains capturing how the individual is physically, mentally and socially affected by their pruritus, in addition to severity, more closely approximate the EQ-5D generic quality of life measure.

Real-time pulmonary artery pressure monitoring in heart failure patients: an updated cost-effectiveness analysis.

AIMS: Previous cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that CardioMEMS is cost-effective compared with usual care for patients with persistent New York Heart Association class III symptoms and at least one heart failure (HF) hospitalization within 12 months. The aim of the paper is to perform an update of the cost-effectiveness analysis of CardioMEMS using the most recent data from the published literature. METHODS AND RESULTS: A Microsoft Excel Markov model from a previous UK cost-effectiveness study of CardioMEMS was updated using the clinical effectiveness of pulmonary artery pressure (PAP)-guided treatment derived from the pivotal trials. The model included the device costs (and the implantation procedure and related complications), costs of remote monitoring, costs of HF-related hospitalizations, and costs of usual care. Quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated based on utilities from pivotal trials and published literature. Cost-effectiveness results were estimated as incremental cost per QALY gained of CardioMEMS compared with usual care. Scenario analyses were also performed using data from real-world studies that showed a significant decrease in HF-related hospitalizations. In the base case analysis over a time horizon of 10 years, PAP-guided HF therapy increased cost compared with usual care by £6337 (i.e. from £22 770 in usual care to £29 107 in PAP-guided HF therapy) and the QALYs per patient for usual care and PAP-guided patients were 2.62 and 2.94, respectively, reflecting an increase of 0.32 QALYs with PAP-guided treatment. The resultant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), the ratio between incremental costs and the QALYs, is estimated at £19 761/QALY. Scenario analyses suggest that the ICER for CardioMEMS can range from being dominant to £27 910/QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested that PAP-guided HF therapy has 81.9% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of £30 000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: Our model suggests that CardioMEMS is likely to be cost-effective in the United Kingdom, at the currently considered thresholds of £20 000-30 000/QALY.

Cost comparison of oral, transnasal and magnet assisted capsule endoscopy in the examination of the upper gastrointestinal tract in patients with dyspepsia.

Introduction: Conventional oral upper gastrointestinal (GI) endoscopy can obe uncomfortable. By comparison, transnasal endoscopy (TNE) and magnet assisted capsule endoscopy (MACE) have superior tolerability. A cost comparison of competing upper GI endoscopic modalities have yet to be performed. Methods: We performed a cost comparison study of oral, TNE and MACE by a combination of activity-based costing and averaging of fixed costs over 24 481 upper GI endoscopies performed for dyspepsia over a 10-year period. Results: On average, 9.4 procedures were performed daily. TNE was cheapest at €125.90 per procedure, costing 30% less than oral endoscopy at €184.10 and threefold cheaper than MACE at €407.10. Flexible endoscope reprocessing cost €53.80. TNE was cheaper than oral endoscopy as sedation was not required. Oral endoscopies have a further rate of infectious complications, estimated to cost €16.20 per oral procedure in inpatient admissions. Oral and TNE equipment are more expensive to purchase and maintain than MACE costing €79 330 and €81 819, respectively compared with MACE at €15 420 per annum. However, capsule endoscopes cost significantly more per procedure at €369.00 than the consumables for flexible endoscopy (per oral €12.30, TNE €5.30). Conclusions: TNE cost less to perform than conventional per oral endoscopy. The cost of capsule endoscopes will need to be reduced significantly if routine use is to be expected.

Troponin in acute chest pain to risk stratify and guide effective use of computed tomography coronary angiography (TARGET-CTCA): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome presenting to the emergency department will be discharged once myocardial infarction has been ruled out, although a proportion will have unrecognised coronary artery disease. In this setting, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin identifies those at increased risk of future cardiac events. In patients with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations in whom myocardial infarction has been ruled out, this trial aims to investigate whether outpatient computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) reduces subsequent myocardial infarction or cardiac death. METHODS: TARGET-CTCA is a multicentre prospective randomised open label with blinded endpoint parallel group event driven trial. After myocardial infarction and clear alternative diagnoses have been ruled out, participants with intermediate cardiac troponin concentrations (5 ng/L to 99th centile upper reference limit) will be randomised 1:1 to outpatient CTCA plus standard of care or standard of care alone. The primary endpoint is myocardial infarction or cardiac death. Secondary endpoints include clinical, patient-centred, process and cost-effectiveness. Recruitment of 2270 patients will give 90% power with a two-sided P value of 0.05 to detect a 40% relative risk reduction in the primary endpoint. Follow-up will continue until 97 primary outcome events have been accrued in the standard care arm with an estimated median follow-up of 36 months. DISCUSSION: This randomised controlled trial will determine whether high-sensitivity cardiac troponin-guided CTCA can improve outcomes and reduce subsequent major adverse cardiac events in patients presenting to the emergency department who do not have myocardial infarction. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03952351. Registered on May 16, 2019.

Quantitative Benefit-Risk Assessment in Medical Product Decision Making: A Good Practices Report of an ISPOR Task Force.

Benefit-risk assessment is commonly conducted by drug and medical device developers and regulators, to evaluate and communicate issues around benefit-risk balance of medical products. Quantitative benefit-risk assessment (qBRA) is a set of techniques that incorporate explicit outcome weighting within a formal analysis to evaluate the benefit-risk balance. This report describes emerging good practices for the 5 main steps of developing qBRAs based on the multicriteria decision analysis process. First, research question formulation needs to identify the needs of decision makers and requirements for preference data and specify the role of external experts. Second, the formal analysis model should be developed by selecting benefit and safety endpoints while eliminating double counting and considering attribute value dependence. Third, preference elicitation method needs to be chosen, attributes framed appropriately within the elicitation instrument, and quality of the data should be evaluated. Fourth, analysis may need to normalize the preference weights, base-case and sensitivity analyses should be conducted, and the effect of preference heterogeneity analyzed. Finally, results should be communicated efficiently to decision makers and other stakeholders. In addition to detailed recommendations, we provide a checklist for reporting qBRAs developed through a Delphi process conducted with 34 experts.

Illustrating Emerging Good Practices for Quantitative Benefit-Risk Assessment: A Hypothetical Case Study of Systemic Biologic Treatments for Plaque Psoriasis.

OBJECTIVES: Quantitative benefit-risk assessment (qBRA) is a structured process to evaluate the benefit-risk balance of treatment options to support decision making. The ISPOR qBRA Task Force was recently established to provide recommendations for the design, conduct, and reporting of qBRA. This report presents a hypothetical case study illustrating how to apply the Task Force's recommendations toward a qBRA to inform the benefit-risk assessment of brodalumab at the time of initial marketing approval. The qBRA evaluated 2 dosing regimens of brodalumab (210 mg or 140 mg twice weekly) compared with weight-based dosing of ustekinumab and placebo. METHODS: We followed the 5 steps recommended by the Task Force. Attributes included treatment response (≥75% improvement in Psoriasis Area and Severity Index), suicidal ideation and behavior, and infections. Performance data were drawn from pivotal clinical trials of brodalumab. The qBRA used multicriteria decision analysis and preference weights from a hypothetical discrete choice experiment. Sensitivity analyses examined the robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, consideration of a subgroup (nail psoriasis), and the maintenance phase of treatment (52 weeks instead of 12). RESULTS: Results from this hypothetical qBRA suggest that brodalumab 210 mg had a more favorable benefit-risk profile compared with ustekinumab and placebo. Ranking of brodalumab compared with ustekinumab was dependent on brodalumab's dose. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated robustness of benefit-risk ranking to uncertainty in clinical effect and preference estimates, as well as choice of attributes and length of follow-up. CONCLUSION: This case study demonstrates how to implement the ISPOR Task Force's good practice recommendations on qBRA.

Cost Effectiveness of Difelikefalin Compared to Standard Care for Treating Chronic Kidney Disease Associated Pruritus (CKD-aP) in People with Kidney Failure Receiving Haemodialysis.

BACKGROUND: Chronic kidney disease-associated pruritus (CKD-aP) is associated with an increased risk of depression, poor sleep and reduced health-related quality of life. Two phase III studies (KALM-1 and KALM-2) of difelikefalin showed reduced CKD-aP severity and improved itch-related health-related quality of life in patients with moderate and severe CKD-aP receiving haemodialysis for kidney failure. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to estimate the cost effectiveness of difelikefalin for patients with CKD-aP receiving haemodialysis for kidney failure compared to standard care from a UK National Health Service perspective. METHODS: A cohort model was developed with four health states representing levels of pruritus intensity over time, based on the KALM trials augmented with longer term CKD-aP severity data from another haemodialysis trial (SHAREHD) for standard care. Utilities were estimated from a mapping study of 5-D Itch to EQ-5D-5L in 487 patients receiving haemodialysis, costs were estimated based on resource use alongside the SHAREHD and 2018 unit costs, and inflated to 2021 costs. Costs and quality-adjusted life-years were discounted at 3.5% per annum. A de novo economic model was developed in Microsoft Excel with scenario analyses performed using a range of assumptions. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis over a time horizon of 64 weeks, using a placeholder cost of £75 per 28-days for difelikefalin, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of difelikefalin compared with standard care was £19,558/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Scenario analyses resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios that ranged from £10,154/QALY (severe only) to £16,957/QALY (5-year horizon) for difelikefalin compared to standard care. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested difelikefalin has a 48.6% probability of being cost effective at a threshold of £20,000/QALY and a 57.2% probability of being cost effective at a threshold of £30,000/QALY. CONCLUSIONS: The cost effectiveness of difelikefalin in a range of scenarios could make it an important pharmacotherapy to address the high burden of disease and unmet need for treatments associated with CKD-aP in the UK.

Multicentre open label randomised controlled trial of immediate enhanced ambulatory ECG monitoring versus standard monitoring in acute unexplained syncope patients: the ASPIRED study.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnosing underlying arrhythmia in emergency department (ED) syncope patients is difficult. There is a evidence that diagnostic yield for detecting underlying arrhythmia is highest when cardiac monitoring devices are applied early, ideally at the index visit. This strategy has the potential to change current syncope management from low diagnostic yield Holter to higher yield ambulatory monitoring, reduce episodes of syncope, reduce risk of recurrence and its potential serious consequences, reduce hospital admissions, reduce overall health costs and increase quality of life by allowing earlier diagnosis, treatment and exclusion of clinically important arrhythmias. METHODS AND ANALYSES: This is a UK open prospective parallel group multicentre randomised controlled trial of an immediate 14-day ambulatory patch heart monitor vs standard care in 2234 patients presenting acutely with unexplained syncope. Our patient focused primary endpoint will be number of episodes of syncope at 1 year. Health economic evaluation will estimate the incremental cost per syncope episode avoided and quality-adjusted life year gained. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Informed consent for participation will be sought. The ASPIRED trial received a favourable ethical opinion from South East Scotland Research Ethics Committee 01 (21/SS/0073). Results will be disseminated via scientific publication, lay summary and visual abstract. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN 10278811.

Living Health Technology Assessment: Issues, Challenges and Opportunities.

Health technology assessments (HTAs) are typically performed as one-off evaluations and can potentially become out-of-date due to the availability of new data, new comparators, or other factors. Recently, living approaches have been applied to systematic reviews and network meta-analyses to enable evidence syntheses to be updated more easily. In this paper, we provide a definition for 'Living HTA' where such a living approach could be applied to the entire HTA process. Living HTA could involve performing regular or scheduled updates using a traditional manual approach, or indeed in a semi-automated manner leveraging recent technological innovations that automate parts of the HTA process. The practical implementation of living HTA using both approaches (i.e., manual approach and using semi-automation) is described along with the likely issues and challenges with planning and implementing a living HTA process. The time, resources and additional considerations outlined may prohibit living HTA from becoming the norm for every evaluation; however, scenarios where living HTA would be particularly beneficial are discussed.

Cost-effectiveness of rapid assessment of potential ischaemic heart disease with CT coronary angiography.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of early CT coronary angiography (CTCA) for intermediate risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS), compared with standard care METHODS: We performed within-trial economic analysis using data from the RAPID-CTCA randomised trial, and long-term modelling of cost-effectiveness using secondary data sources to estimate the cost-effectiveness of early CTCA compared with standard care for patients with suspected ACS attending acute hospitals in the UK. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained, and the probability of each strategy being cost-effective at varying willingness-to-pay per QALY gained. RESULTS: The within-trial analysis showed that there were no demonstrable differences in costs or QALYs between early CTCA and standard care, with point estimates suggesting higher costs (£7414 vs £6845: mean difference £569, 95% CI -£208 to £1335; p=0.1521) and lower QALYs (0.749 vs 0.758, mean difference -0.009, 95% CI -0.026 to 0.010; p=0.377) in the CTCA arm. The long-term economic analysis suggested that, on average, CTCA was slightly less effective than standard care alone with 0.025 quality-adjusted life years lost per patient treated and was more expensive with additional costs of £481 per patient treated. At a threshold of £20 000 per QALY, CTCA has 24% probability of being cost-effective. CONCLUSIONS: There are no demonstrable differences in within-trial costs and QALYs, and long-term cost-effectiveness modelling suggested higher long-term costs with CTCA and uncertain effect on long-term QALYs, making routine use of CTCA for suspected ACS unlikely to be a cost-effective use of NHS resources.

Effectiveness of iodine-impregnated incise drapes for preventing surgical site infection in patients with clean or clean contaminated wounds: A systematic literature review and cost-consequence analysis.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infection is a serious complication associated with significant morbidity, mortality and health care expenditure. AIMS: To determine the clinical effectiveness and economic impact of using iodine-impregnated incise drapes for preventing surgical site infection. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and CINAHL databases were systematically searched. Critical appraisal and synthesis of clinical evidence informed a decision analytical cost-consequence model. FINDINGS: Nine studies were included in the systematic literature review. Evidence from cardiac surgery patients was considered appropriate to inform the cost analysis. The economic model evaluation estimated cost savings of £549 per patient with the iodophor-impregnated drape in the deterministic analysis and a mean cost saving per patient of £554,172 per 1000 in the probabilistic analysis. CONCLUSION: Using iodine-impregnated drapes in cardiac surgery patients may effectively reduce infections and provide cost-savings, but further research is required.

Early computed tomography coronary angiography in adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome: the RAPID-CTCA RCT.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome is a common medical emergency. The optimal strategy to investigate patients who are at intermediate risk of acute coronary syndrome has not been fully determined. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of early computed tomography coronary angiography in the investigation and treatment of adults presenting with suspected acute coronary syndrome. DESIGN: A prospective, multicentre, open, parallel-group randomised controlled trial with blinded end-point adjudication. SETTING: Thirty-seven hospitals in the UK. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (aged ≥ 18 years) presenting to the emergency department, acute medicine services or cardiology department with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome and at least one of the following: (1) a prior history of coronary artery disease, (2) a cardiac troponin level > 99th centile and (3) an abnormal 12-lead electrocardiogram. INTERVENTIONS: Early computed tomography coronary angiography in addition to standard care was compared with standard care alone. Participants were followed up for 1 year. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: One-year all-cause death or subsequent type 1 (spontaneous) or type 4b (stent thrombosis) myocardial infarction, measured as the time to such event adjudicated by two cardiologists blinded to the computerised tomography coronary angiography ( CTCA ) arm. Cost-effectiveness was estimated as the lifetime incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained. RESULTS: Between 23 March 2015 and 27 June 2019, 1748 participants [mean age 62 years (standard deviation 13 years), 64% male, mean Global Registry Of Acute Coronary Events score 115 (standard deviation 35)] were randomised to receive early computed tomography coronary angiography (n = 877) or standard care alone (n = 871). The primary end point occurred in 51 (5.8%) participants randomised to receive computed tomography coronary angiography and 53 (6.1%) participants randomised to receive standard care (adjusted hazard ratio 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.62 to 1.35; p = 0.65). Computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with a reduced use of invasive coronary angiography (adjusted hazard ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 0.92; p = 0.001) but no change in coronary revascularisation (adjusted hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.21; p = 0.76), acute coronary syndrome therapies (adjusted odds ratio 1.06, 95% confidence interval 0.85 to 1.32; p = 0.63) or preventative therapies on discharge (adjusted odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.87 to 1.32; p = 0.52). Early computed tomography coronary angiography was associated with longer hospitalisations (median increase 0.21 days, 95% confidence interval 0.05 to 0.40 days) and higher mean total health-care costs over 1 year (£561 more per patient) than standard care. LIMITATIONS: The principal limitation of the trial was the slower than anticipated recruitment, leading to a revised sample size, and the requirement to compromise and accept a larger relative effect size estimate for the trial intervention. FUTURE WORK: The potential role of computed tomography coronary angiography in selected patients with a low probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (intermediate or mildly elevated level of troponin) or who have limited access to invasive cardiac catheterisation facilities needs further prospective evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected or provisionally diagnosed acute coronary syndrome, computed tomography coronary angiography did not alter overall coronary therapeutic interventions or 1-year clinical outcomes, but it did increase the length of hospital stay and health-care costs. These findings do not support the routine use of early computed tomography coronary angiography in intermediate-risk patients with acute chest pain. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This trial is registered as ISRCTN19102565 and Clinical Trials NCT02284191. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 37. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

WHY DID WE DO THE RESEARCH?: Chest pain is a common medical emergency. It is important to decide if the cause is a heart attack. The two tests that are often used are a heart recording (electrocardiogram) and a blood test (troponin levels). If both are normal, the cause of chest pain is unlikely to be a heart attack and the patient is often discharged home. If either test is positive or if the patient has had previous heart problems, then the patient may require further investigation. We wanted to test whether or not adding a heart scan called a computerised tomography coronary angiogram improved patients' care. HOW DID WE DO THE RESEARCH?: We carried out a randomised trial in which half of the patients attending hospital with chest pain had a computerised tomography coronary angiography scan as part of their assessment and half of the patients did not. In total, 1749 patients were recruited and followed up for 1 year. BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER: The use of an additional early computerised tomography coronary angiography scan for chest pain patients of medium risk produced only small improvements in patient care.

Early treatment of corneal abrasions and ulcers-estimating clinical and economic outcomes.

Background: In low-and-middle income countries, corneal abrasions and ulcers are common and not always well managed. Previous studies showed better clinical outcomes with early presentation and treatment of minor abrasions, however, there have been no formal studies estimating the financial impact of early treatment of abrasions and ulcers compared to delayed treatment. Methods: We used the LV Prasad Eye Institute's (LVPEI's) electronic health record system (eyeSmart) to estimate the impact of early presentation on clinical outcomes associated with abrasions and ulcers. 861 patients with corneal abrasion and 1821 patients with corneal ulcers were studied retrospectively, and 134 patients with corneal abrasion prospectively. A health economic model was constructed based on LVPEI cost data for a range of patient scenarios (from early presentation with abrasion to late presentation with ulcer). Findings: Our findings suggest that delayed presentation of corneal abrasion results in poor clinical and economic outcomes due to increased risk of ulceration requiring more extensive surgical management, increasing associated costs to patients and the healthcare system. However, excellent results at low cost can be achieved by treatment of patients with early presentation of abrasions at village level health care centres. Interpretation: Treatment of early minor corneal abrasions, particularly using local delivery of treatment, is effective clinically and economically. Future investment in making patients aware of the need to react promptly to corneal abrasions by accessing local healthcare resources (coupled with a campaign to prevent ulcerations occurring) will continue to improve clinical outcomes for patients at low cost and avoid complex and more expensive treatment to preserve sight. Funding: This research was funded by the Medical Research Council, grant MR/S004688/1.

Presentation cardiac troponin and early computed tomography coronary angiography in patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome: a pre-specified secondary analysis of the RAPID-CTCA trial.

AIMS: To evaluate the potential associations between presentation cardiac troponin and the clinical impact of early computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) in intermediate-risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a large multicentre randomized controlled trial of patients with intermediate-risk chest pain due to suspected acute coronary syndrome, early CTCA had no effect on the primary outcome-death or subsequent Type 1 or 4b myocardial infarction-but reduced the rate of invasive coronary angiography. In this pre-specified secondary analysis, cardiovascular testing and clinical outcomes were compared between those with or without cardiac troponin elevation at presentation. Of 1748 patients, 1004 (57%) had an elevated cardiac troponin concentration and 744 (43%) had a normal concentration. Patients with cardiac troponin elevation had a higher Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score (132 vs. 91; P < 0.001) and were more likely to have obstructive coronary artery disease (59 vs. 33%; P < 0.001), non-invasive (72 vs. 52%; P < 0.001) and invasive (72 vs. 38%; P < 0.001) testing, coronary revascularization (47 vs. 15%; P < 0.001), and the primary outcome (8 vs. 3%; P = 0.007) at 1 year. However, there was no evidence that presentation cardiac troponin was associated with the relative effects of early CTCA on rates of non-invasive (Pinteraction = 0.33) and invasive (Pinteraction = 0.99) testing, coronary revascularization (Pinteraction = 0.57), or the primary outcome (Pinteraction = 0.41). CONCLUSION: Presentation cardiac troponin had no demonstrable associations between the effects of early CTCA on reductions in non-invasive and invasive testing, or the lack of effect on coronary revascularization or the primary outcome in intermediate-risk patients with suspected acute coronary syndrome.

ENTIMOS: A Discrete Event Simulation Model for Maximising Efficiency of Infusion Suites in Centres Treating Multiple Sclerosis Patients.

BACKGROUND: Improved multiple sclerosis (MS) diagnosis and increased availability of intravenous disease-modifying treatments can lead to overburdening of infusion centres. This study was focused on developing a decision-support tool to help infusion centres plan their operations. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model ('ENTIMOS') was developed using Simul8 software in collaboration with clinical experts. Model inputs included treatment-specific clinical parameters, resources such as infusion chairs and nursing staff, and costs, while model outputs included patient throughput, waiting time, queue size, resource utilisation, and costs. The model was parameterised using characteristics of the Charing Cross Hospital Infusion Centre in London, UK, where 12 infusion chairs were deployed for 170 non-MS and 860 MS patients as of March 2021. The number of MS patients was projected to increase by seven new patients per week. RESULTS: The model-estimated waiting time for an infusion is, on average, 8 days beyond clinical recommendation in the first year of simulation. Without corrective action, the delay in receiving due treatment is anticipated to reach 30 days on average at 30 months from the start of simulation. Such system compromise can be prevented either by adding one infusion chair annually or switching 7% of existing patients or 24% of new patients to alternative MS treatments not requiring infusion. CONCLUSION: ENTIMOS is a flexible model of patient flow and care delivery in infusion centres serving MS patients. It allows users to simulate specific local settings and therefore identify measures that are necessary to avoid clinically significant treatment delay resulting in suboptimal care.