Germline EGFR Mutations and Familial Lung Cancer.

PURPOSE: The genomic underpinnings of inherited lung cancer risk are poorly understood. This prospective study characterized the clinical phenotype of patients and families with germline EGFR pathogenic variants (PVs). METHODS: The Investigating Hereditary Risk from T790M study (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT01754025) enrolled patients with lung cancer whose tumor profiling harbored possible germline EGFR PVs and their relatives, either in person or remotely, providing germline testing and follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 141 participants were enrolled over a 5-year period, 100 (71%) remotely. Based upon previous genotyping, 116 participants from 59 kindreds were tested for EGFR T790M, demonstrating a pattern of Mendelian inheritance with variable lung cancer penetrance. In confirmed or obligate carriers of a germline EGFR PV from 39 different kindreds, 50/91 (55%) were affected with lung cancer with 34/65 (52%) diagnosed by age 60 years. Somatic testing of lung cancers in carriers revealed that 35 of 37 (95%) had an EGFR driver comutation. Among 36 germline carriers without a cancer diagnosis, 15 had computed tomography (CT) imaging and nine had lung nodules, including a 28-year-old with >10 lung nodules. Given geographic enrichment of germline EGFR T790M in the southeast United States, genome-wide haplotyping of 46 germline carriers was performed and identified a 4.1-Mb haplotype shared by 41 (89%), estimated to originate 223-279 years ago. CONCLUSION: To our knowledge, this is the first prospective description of familial EGFR-mutant lung cancer, identifying a recent founder germline EGFR T790M variant enriched in the Southeast United States. The high prevalence of EGFR-driver lung adenocarcinomas and lung nodules in germline carriers supports effort to identify affected patients and family members for investigation of CT-based screening for these high-risk individuals.

Random allelic expression in the adult human body.

Genes are typically assumed to express both parental alleles similarly, yet cell lines show random allelic expression (RAE) for many autosomal genes that could shape genetic effects. Thus, understanding RAE in human tissues could improve our understanding of phenotypic variation. Here, we develop a methodology to perform genome-wide profiling of RAE and biallelic expression in GTEx datasets for 832 people and 54 tissues. We report 2,762 autosomal genes with some RAE properties similar to randomly inactivated X-linked genes. We found that RAE is associated with rapidly evolving regions in the human genome, adaptive signaling processes, and genes linked to age-related diseases such as neurodegeneration and cancer. We define putative mechanistic subtypes of RAE distinguished by gene overlaps on sense and antisense DNA strands, aggregation in clusters near telomeres, and increased regulatory complexity and inputs compared with biallelic genes. We provide foundations to study RAE in human phenotypes, evolution, and disease.

Comprehensive evaluation and efficient classification of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions.

BRCA1 is a high-risk susceptibility gene for breast and ovarian cancer. Pathogenic protein-truncating variants are scattered across the open reading frame, but all known missense substitutions that are pathogenic because of missense dysfunction are located in either the amino-terminal RING domain or the carboxy-terminal BRCT domain. Heterodimerization of the BRCA1 and BARD1 RING domains is a molecularly defined obligate activity. Hence, we tested every BRCA1 RING domain missense substitution that can be created by a single nucleotide change for heterodimerization with BARD1 in a mammalian two-hybrid assay. Downstream of the laboratory assay, we addressed three additional challenges: assay calibration, validation thereof, and integration of the calibrated results with other available data, such as computational evidence and patient/population observational data to achieve clinically applicable classification. Overall, we found that 15%-20% of BRCA1 RING domain missense substitutions are pathogenic. Using a Bayesian point system for data integration and variant classification, we achieved clinical classification of 89% of observed missense substitutions. Moreover, among missense substitutions not present in the human observational data used here, we find an additional 45 with concordant computational and functional assay evidence in favor of pathogenicity plus 223 with concordant evidence in favor of benignity; these are particularly likely to be classified as likely pathogenic and likely benign, respectively, once human observational data become available.

Evidence for excess familial clustering of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder in the US Veterans Genealogy resource.

A genealogy of the United States has been record-linked to National Veteran's Health Administration (VHA) patient data to allow non-identifiable analysis of familial clustering. This genealogy, including over 70 million individuals linked to over 1 million VHA patients, is the largest such combined resource reported. Analysis of familial clustering among VHA patients diagnosed with Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD) allowed a test of the hypothesis of an inherited contribution to PTSD. PTSD is associated strongly with military service and extended familial clustering data have not previously been presented. PTSD-affected VHA patients with genealogy data were identified by presence of an ICD diagnosis code in the VHA medical record in at least 2 different years. The Genealogical Index of Familiality (GIF) method was used to compare the average relatedness of VHA patients diagnosed with PTSD with their expected average relatedness, estimated from randomly selected sets of matched linked VHA patient controls. Relative risks for PTSD were estimated in first-, second-, and third-degree relatives of PTSD patients who were also VHA patients, using sex and age-matched rates for PTSD estimated from all linked VHA patients. Significant excess pairwise relatedness, and significantly elevated risk for PTSD in first-, second-, and third-degree relatives was observed; multiple high-risk extended PTSD pedigrees were identified. The analysis provides evidence for excess familial clustering of PTSD and identified high-risk PTSD pedigrees. These results support an inherited contribution to PTSD predisposition and identify a powerful resource of high-risk PTSD pedigrees for predisposition gene identification.

Detection of circulating tumor DNA without a tumor-informed search using next-generation sequencing is a prognostic biomarker in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.

The confounding effects of next-generation sequencing (NGS) noise on detection of low frequency circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) without a priori knowledge of solid tumor mutations has limited the applications of circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) in clinical oncology. Here, we use a 118 gene panel and leverage ccfDNA technical replicates to eliminate NGS-associated errors while also enhancing detection of ctDNA from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). Pre-operative ccfDNA and tumor DNA were acquired from 14 patients with PDAC (78.6% stage II-III). Post-operative ccfDNA was also collected from 11 of the patients within 100 days of surgery. ctDNA detection was restricted to variants corresponding to pathogenic mutations in PDAC present in both replicates. PDAC-associated pathogenic mutations were detected in pre-operative ccfDNA in four genes (KRAS, TP53, SMAD4, ALK) from five patients. Of the nine ctDNA variants detected (variant allele frequency: 0.08%-1.59%), five had a corresponding mutation in tumor DNA. Pre-operative detection of ctDNA was associated with shorter survival (312 vs. 826 days; χ2=5.4, P = 0.021). Guiding ctDNA detection in pre-operative ccfDNA based on mutations present in tumor DNA yielded a similar survival analysis. Detection of ctDNA in the post-operative ccfDNA with or without tumor-informed guidance was not associated with outcomes. Therefore, the detection of PDAC-derived ctDNA during a broad and untargeted survey of ccfDNA with NGS may be a valuable, non-invasive, prognostic biomarker to integrate into the clinical assessment and management of patients prior to surgery.

Association Between Contact Precautions and Transmission of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Veterans Affairs Hospitals.

Importance: The effectiveness and importance of contact precautions for endemic pathogens has long been debated, and their use has broad implications for infection control of other pathogens. Objective: To estimate the association between contact precautions and transmission of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) across US Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study used mathematical models applied to data from a population-based sample of adults hospitalized in 108 VA acute care hospitals for at least 24 hours from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2017. Data were analyzed from May 2, 2019, to December 11, 2020. Exposures: A positive MRSA test result, presumed to indicate contact precautions use according to the VA MRSA Prevention Initiative. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was the association between contact precautions and MRSA transmission, defined as the relative transmissibility attributed to contact precautions. A contact precaution effect estimate (<1 indicates a reduction in transmission associated with contact precautions) was estimated for each hospital and then pooled over time and across hospitals using meta-regression. Results: In this cohort study of 108 VA hospitals, more than 2 million unique individuals had over 5.6 million admissions, of which 14.1% were presumed to have contact precautions with more than 8.4 million MRSA surveillance tests. Pooled estimates found associations between contact precautions and transmission to be stable from 2008 to 2017, with estimated transmission reductions ranging from 43% (95% credible interval [CrI], 38%-48%) to 51% (95% CrI, 46%-55%). Over the entire 10-year study period, contact precautions reduced transmission 47% (95% CrI, 45%-49%), and the intrafacility autocorrelation coefficient estimate was 0.99, suggesting consistent estimates over time within facilities. Larger facilities and those with higher admission screening compliance observed additional reductions in transmission associated with contact precautions (relative rate, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.96 and 0.74; 95% CI, 0.58-0.96, respectively) compared with smaller facilities and those with lower admission screening compliance. Facilities in the southern US had a smaller transmission reduction attributable to contact precautions (relative rate, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.01-1.28) compared with facilities in other regions in the US. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of adults in VA hospitals, transmissibility of MRSA was found to be reduced by approximately 50% among patients with contact precautions. These results provide an explanation for decreasing acquisition rates in VA hospitals since the MRSA Prevention Initiative.

Transmission Dynamics of Clostridioides difficile in 2 High-Acuity Hospital Units.

BACKGROUND: The key epidemiological drivers of Clostridioides difficile transmission are not well understood. We estimated epidemiological parameters to characterize variation in C. difficile transmission, while accounting for the imperfect nature of surveillance tests. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of C. difficile surveillance tests for patients admitted to a bone marrow transplant (BMT) unit or a solid tumor unit (STU) in a 565-bed tertiary hospital. We constructed a transmission model for estimating key parameters, including admission prevalence, transmission rate, and duration of colonization to understand the potential variation in C. difficile dynamics between these 2 units. RESULTS: A combined 2425 patients had 5491 admissions into 1 of the 2 units. A total of 3559 surveillance tests were collected from 1394 patients, with 11% of the surveillance tests being positive for C. difficile. We estimate that the transmission rate in the BMT unit was nearly 3-fold higher at 0.29 acquisitions per percentage colonized per 1000 days, compared to our estimate in the STU (0.10). Our model suggests that 20% of individuals admitted into either the STU or BMT unit were colonized with C. difficile at the time of admission. In contrast, the percentage of surveillance tests that were positive within 1 day of admission to either unit for C. difficile was 13.4%, with 15.4% in the STU and 11.6% in the BMT unit. CONCLUSIONS: Although prevalence was similar between the units, there were important differences in the rates of transmission and clearance. Influential factors may include antimicrobial exposure or other patient-care factors.

Effectiveness of Contact Precautions to Prevent Transmission of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus and Vancomycin-Resistant Enterococci in Intensive Care Units.

BACKGROUND: Contact precautions for endemic methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) are under increasing scrutiny, in part due to limited clinical trial evidence. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed data from the Strategies to Reduce Transmission of Antimicrobial Resistant Bacteria in Intensive Care Units (STAR*ICU) trial to model the use of contact precautions in individual intensive care units (ICUs). Data included admission and discharge times and surveillance test results. We used a transmission model to estimate key epidemiological parameters, including the effect of contact precautions on transmission. Finally, we performed multivariate meta-regression to identify ICU-level factors associated with contact precaution effects. RESULTS: We found that 21% of admissions (n = 2194) were placed on contact precautions, with most for MRSA and VRE. We found little evidence that contact precautions reduced MRSA transmission. The estimated change in transmission attributed to contact precautions was -16% (95% credible interval, -38% to 15%). VRE transmission was higher than MRSA transmission due to contact precautions, but not significantly. In our meta-regression, we did not identify associations between ICU-level factors and estimated contact precaution effects. Importation and transmission were higher for VRE than for MRSA, but clearance rates were lower for VRE than for MRSA. CONCLUSIONS: We found little evidence that contact precautions implemented during the STAR*ICU trial reduced transmission of MRSA or VRE. We did find important differences in the transmission dynamics between MRSA and VRE. Differences in organism and healthcare setting may impact the efficacy of contact precautions.

Peri-implantation intercourse does not lower fecundability.

STUDY QUESTION: Does sexual intercourse in the implantation time window (5-9 days after ovulation) reduce fecundability? SUMMARY ANSWER: After adjustment for intercourse in the fecund window and clustering by couple, there was no association between intercourse in the implantation time window and fecundity. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Previous research has suggested an association between intercourse in the peri-implantation time window (5-9 days after estimated ovulation) and reduced fecundability. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We used data from the FERTILI study, a prospective observational study conducted in five European countries, with data collected from 1992 to 1996. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women who were experienced in fertility awareness tracking kept a daily diary of cervical mucus observations, basal body temperature measurements, coitus and clinically identified pregnancy. We estimated the day of ovulation as cycle length minus 13 days. From 661 women, 2606 cycles had intercourse during the fecund window (from 5 days before to 3 days after the estimated day of ovulation), resulting in 418 pregnancies (conception cycles). An established Bayesian fecundability model was used to estimate the fecundability ratio (FR) of peri-implantation intercourse on fecundability, while adjusting for each partner's age, prior pregnancy, the couple's probability of conception and intercourse pattern(s). We conducted sensitivity analyses estimating ovulation as cycle length minus 12 days, or alternatively, as the peak day of estrogenic cervical mucus. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: There was no effect of peri-implantation intercourse on fecundability: adjusted FR for three or more acts of peri-implantation intercourse versus none: 1.00, 95% credible interval: 0.76-1.13. Results were essentially the same with sensitivity analyses. There was an inverse relationship between frequency of intercourse in the fecund window and intercourse in the peri-implantation window. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Women with known subfertility were excluded from this study. Many couples in the study were avoiding pregnancy during much of the study, so 61% of otherwise eligible cycles in the database were not at meaningful risk of pregnancy and did not contribute to the analysis. Some couples may not have recorded all intercourse. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: We believe the current balance of evidence does not support a recommendation for avoiding intercourse in the peri-implantation period among couples trying to conceive. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): No external funding. The authors have no potential competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.

The stochastic nature of errors in next-generation sequencing of circulating cell-free DNA.

Challenges with distinguishing circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) from next-generation sequencing (NGS) artifacts limits variant searches to established solid tumor mutations. Here we show early and random PCR errors are a principal source of NGS noise that persist despite duplex molecular barcoding, removal of artifacts due to clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential, and suppression of patterned errors. We also demonstrate sample duplicates are necessary to eliminate the stochastic noise associated with NGS. Integration of sample duplicates into NGS analytics may broaden ctDNA applications by removing NGS-related errors that confound identification of true very low frequency variants during searches for ctDNA without a priori knowledge of specific mutations to target.

Variation and trends in transmission dynamics of Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in veterans affairs hospitals and nursing homes.

Variation and differences of MRSA transmission within and between healthcare settings are not well understood. This variability is critical for understanding the potential impact of infection control interventions and could aid in the evaluation of future intervention strategies. We fit a Bayesian transmission model to detailed individual-level MRSA surveillance data from over 230 Veterans Affairs (VA) hospitals and nursing homes. Our approach disentangles the effects of potential confounders, including length of stay, admission prevalence, and clearance, estimating dynamic transmission model parameters and temporal trends. The median baseline transmission rate in hospitals was approximately four-fold higher than in nursing homes, and declined in 46% of hospitals and 9% of nursing homes, resulting in a median transmission rate reduction of 43% across hospitals and an increase of 2% in nursing homes. For first admissions into an acute care facility, the median (range) importation probability was 10.5% (5.9%-18.4%), and was nearly twice as large, 18.7% (9.2%-37.4%), in nursing homes. This analysis found differences within and between hospitals and nursing homes. The transmission rate declined substantially in hospitals and remained stable in nursing homes, while admission prevalence was considerably higher in nursing homes than in hospitals.

Population genealogy resource shows evidence of familial clustering for Alzheimer disease.

OBJECTIVE: To show the potential of a resource consisting of a genealogy of the US record linked to National Veterans Health Administration (VHA) patient data for investigation of the genetic contribution to health-related phenotypes, we present an analysis of familial clustering of VHA patients diagnosed with Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: Patients with AD were identified by the International Classification of Diseases code. The Genealogical Index of Familiality method was used to compare the average relatedness of VHA patients with AD with expected relatedness. Relative risks for AD were estimated in first- to fifth- degree relatives of patients with AD using population rates for AD. RESULTS: Evidence for significant excess relatedness and significantly elevated risks for AD in relatives was observed; multiple pedigrees with a significant excess of VHA patients with AD were identified. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of AD shows the nascent power of the US Veterans Genealogy Resource, in early stages, to provide evidence for familial clustering of multiple phenotypes, and shows the utility of this VHA genealogic resource for future genetic studies.

Automated size selection for short cell-free DNA fragments enriches for circulating tumor DNA and improves error correction during next generation sequencing.

Circulating tumor-derived cell-free DNA (ctDNA) enables non-invasive diagnosis, monitoring, and treatment susceptibility testing in human cancers. However, accurate detection of variant alleles, particularly during untargeted searches, remains a principal obstacle to widespread application of cell-free DNA in clinical oncology. In this study, isolation of short cell-free DNA fragments is shown to enrich for tumor variants and improve correction of PCR- and sequencing-associated errors. Subfractions of the mononucleosome of circulating cell-free DNA (ccfDNA) were isolated from patients with melanoma, pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, and colorectal adenocarcinoma using a high-throughput-capable automated gel-extraction platform. Using a 128-gene (128 kb) custom next-generation sequencing panel, variant alleles were on average 2-fold enriched in the short fraction (median insert size: ~142 bp) compared to the original ccfDNA sample, while 0.7-fold reduced in the fraction corresponding to the principal peak of the mononucleosome (median insert size: ~167 bp). Size-selected short fractions compared to the original ccfDNA yielded significantly larger family sizes (i.e., PCR duplicates) during in silico consensus sequence interpretation via unique molecular identifiers. Increments in family size were associated with a progressive reduction of PCR and sequencing errors. Although consensus read depth also decreased at larger family sizes, the variant allele frequency in the short ccfDNA fraction remained consistent, while variant detection in the original ccfDNA was commonly lost at family sizes necessary to minimize errors. These collective findings support the automated extraction of short ccfDNA fragments to enrich for ctDNA while concomitantly reducing false positives through in silico error correction.

Reparameterization of PAM50 Expression Identifies Novel Breast Tumor Dimensions and Leads to Discovery of a Genome-Wide Significant Breast Cancer Locus at 12q15.

Background: Breast tumor subtyping has failed to provide impact in susceptibility genetics. The PAM50 assay categorizes breast tumors into: Luminal A, Luminal B, HER2-enriched and Basal-like. However, tumors are often more complex than simple categorization can describe. The identification of heritable tumor characteristics has potential to decrease heterogeneity and increase power for gene finding.Methods: We used 911 sporadic breast tumors with PAM50 expression data to derive tumor dimensions using principal components (PC). Dimensions in 238 tumors from high-risk pedigrees were compared with the sporadic tumors. Proof-of-concept gene mapping, informed by tumor dimension, was performed using Shared Genomic Segment (SGS) analysis.Results: Five dimensions (PC1-5) explained the majority of the PAM50 expression variance: three captured intrinsic subtype, two were novel (PC3, PC5). All five replicated in 745 TCGA tumors. Both novel dimensions were significantly enriched in the high-risk pedigrees (intrinsic subtypes were not). SGS gene-mapping in a pedigree identified a 0.5 Mb genome-wide significant region at 12q15 This region segregated through 32 meioses to 8 breast cancer cases with extreme PC3 tumors (P = 2.6 × 10-8).Conclusions: PC analysis of PAM50 gene expression revealed multiple independent, quantitative measures of tumor diversity. These tumor dimensions show evidence for heritability and potential as powerful traits for gene mapping.Impact: Our study suggests a new approach to describe tumor expression diversity, provides new avenues for germline studies, and proposes a new breast cancer locus. Similar reparameterization of expression patterns may inform other studies attempting to model the effects of tumor heterogeneity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 644-52. ©2018 AACR.

A Nonsynonymous Variant in the GOLM1 Gene in Cutaneous Malignant Melanoma.

Background: Statistically significant linkage of melanoma to chromosome 9q21 was previously reported in a Danish pedigree resource and independently confirmed in Utah high-risk pedigrees, indicating strong evidence that this region contains a melanoma predisposition gene. Methods: Whole-exome sequencing of pairs of related melanoma case subjects from two pedigrees with evidence of 9q21 linkage was performed to identify the responsible predisposition gene. Candidate variants were tested for association with melanoma in an independent set of 454 unrelated familial melanoma case subjects and 396 unrelated cancer-free control subjects from Utah, and 1534 melanoma case subjects and 1146 noncancer control subjects from Texas (MD Anderson) via a two-sided Fisher exact test. Results: A rare nonsynonymous variant in Golgi Membrane Protein 1 (GOLM1), rs149739829, shared in two hypothesized predisposition carriers in one linked pedigree was observed. Segregation of this variant in additional affected relatives of the index carriers was confirmed. A statistically significant excess of carriers of the variant was observed among Utah case subjects and control subjects (odds ratio [OR] = 9.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 8.35 to 11.26, P < .001) and statistically significantly confirmed in Texas case subjects and control subjects (OR = 2.45, 95% CI = 1.65 to 3.25, P = .02). Conclusion: These findings support GOLM1 as a candidate melanoma predisposition gene.

Novel pedigree analysis implicates DNA repair and chromatin remodeling in multiple myeloma risk.

The high-risk pedigree (HRP) design is an established strategy to discover rare, highly-penetrant, Mendelian-like causal variants. Its success, however, in complex traits has been modest, largely due to challenges of genetic heterogeneity and complex inheritance models. We describe a HRP strategy that addresses intra-familial heterogeneity, and identifies inherited segments important for mapping regulatory risk. We apply this new Shared Genomic Segment (SGS) method in 11 extended, Utah, multiple myeloma (MM) HRPs, and subsequent exome sequencing in SGS regions of interest in 1063 MM / MGUS (monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance-a precursor to MM) cases and 964 controls from a jointly-called collaborative resource, including cases from the initial 11 HRPs. One genome-wide significant 1.8 Mb shared segment was found at 6q16. Exome sequencing in this region revealed predicted deleterious variants in USP45 (p.Gln691* and p.Gln621Glu), a gene known to influence DNA repair through endonuclease regulation. Additionally, a 1.2 Mb segment at 1p36.11 is inherited in two Utah HRPs, with coding variants identified in ARID1A (p.Ser90Gly and p.Met890Val), a key gene in the SWI/SNF chromatin remodeling complex. Our results provide compelling statistical and genetic evidence for segregating risk variants for MM. In addition, we demonstrate a novel strategy to use large HRPs for risk-variant discovery more generally in complex traits.

Extended models for nosocomial infection: parameter estimation and model selection.

We consider extensions to previous models for patient level nosocomial infection in several ways, provide a specification of the likelihoods for these new models, specify new update steps required for stochastic integration, and provide programs that implement these methods to obtain parameter estimates and model choice statistics. Previous susceptible-infected models are extended to allow for a latent period between initial exposure to the pathogen and the patient becoming themselves infectious, and the possibility of decolonization. We allow for multiple facilities, such as acute care hospitals or long-term care facilities and nursing homes, and for multiple units or wards within a facility. Patient transfers between units and facilities are tracked and accounted for in the models so that direct importation of a colonized individual from one facility or unit to another might be inferred. We allow for constant transmission rates, rates that depend on the number of colonized individuals in a unit or facility, or rates that depend on the proportion of colonized individuals. Statistical analysis is done in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to obtain a sample of parameter values from their joint posterior distribution. Cross validation, deviance information criterion and widely applicable information criterion approaches to model choice fit very naturally into this framework and we have implemented all three. We illustrate our methods by considering model selection issues and parameter estimation for data on methicilin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus surveillance tests over 1 year at a Veterans Administration hospital comprising seven wards.

Cancer Risk in Families Fulfilling the Amsterdam Criteria for Lynch Syndrome.

Importance: The data describing cancer risks associated with Lynch syndrome are variable. Objectives: To quantify the prevalence of families that fulfill the Amsterdam I or II criteria for Lynch syndrome in the Utah population and investigate the risk of colonic and extracolonic cancers in family members and their relatives. Design, Setting, and Participants: In a population-based study, 202 families with Amsterdam I and II criteria­positive pedigrees in the Utah Population Database were identified. Of these, all cancer diagnoses in members of families with Amsterdam criteria and their first-degree, second-degree, and first-cousin relatives were located through linkage to the Utah Cancer Registry. The study was conducted from May 1 to June 30, 2016. Main Outcomes and Measures: Standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs) were estimated by comparing the observed rates of cancer in relatives with population-expected rates estimated internally from the Utah Population Database. Results: A total of 202 families meeting Amsterdam criteria for Lynch syndrome accounted for 2.6% of all colorectal cancers in the state; of these, 59 met both the Amsterdam I and Amsterdam II criteria. Cancers observed in significant excess in the first-degree relatives of Amsterdam criteria pedigrees included colorectal (SMR, 10.10; 95% CI, 9.43-10.81), endometrial (SMR, 5.89; 95% CI, 5.09-6.78), stomach (SMR, 2.90; 95% CI, 2.02-4.03), small intestine (SMR, 7.72; 95% CI, 5.17-11.08), prostate (SMR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.73-2.17), kidney (SMR, 3.22; 95% CI, 2.45-4.16), urinary bladder (SMR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.22-2.12), thyroid (SMR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.55-3.17), and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SMR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.64-2.65). Risks of colorectal and endometrial cancers were also found to be elevated in second-degree (SMR, 4.31; 95% CI, 3.98-4.65 and SMR, 2.70; 95% CI, 2.30-3.14, respectively) and first-cousin (SMR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.70-2.00 and SMR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.29-1.73, respectively) relatives of families with Amsterdam criteria. Conclusions and Relevance: In this population-based study of cancer risk in families fulfilling the Amsterdam criteria, many of the cancers previously reported to be associated with Lynch syndrome were observed, several previously unreported cancer associations were noted, and the risk of colorectal and endometrial cancer were markedly increased in first-, second-, and even third-degree relatives of these families. This study provides clinicians with population-based, unbiased data to counsel members of families meeting the Amsterdam criteria regarding their elevated risks of cancer and the importance of cancer screening.

A Dynamic Transmission Model to Evaluate the Effectiveness of Infection Control Strategies.

BACKGROUND: The advancement of knowledge about control of antibiotic resistance depends on the rigorous evaluation of alternative intervention strategies. The STAR*ICU trial examined the effects of active surveillance and expanded barrier precautions on acquisition of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus (VRE) in intensive care units. We report a reanalyses of the STAR*ICU trial using a Bayesian transmission modeling framework. METHODS: The data included admission and discharge times and surveillance test times and results. Markov chain Monte Carlo stochastic integration was used to estimate the transmission rate, importation, false negativity, and clearance separately for MRSA and VRE. The primary outcome was the intervention effect, which when less than (or greater than) zero, indicated a decreased (or increased) transmission rate attributable to the intervention. RESULTS: The transmission rate increased in both arms from pre- to postintervention (by 20% and 26% for MRSA and VRE). The estimated intervention effect was 0.00 (95% confidence interval [CI], -0.57 to 0.56) for MRSA and 0.05 (95% CI, -0.39 to 0.48) for VRE. Compared with MRSA, VRE had a higher transmission rate (preintervention, 0.0069 vs 0.0039; postintervention, 0.0087 vs 0.0046), higher importation probability (0.22 vs 0.17), and a lower clearance rate per colonized patient-day (0.016 vs 0.035). CONCLUSIONS: Transmission rates in the 2 treatment arms were statistically indistinguishable from the pre- to postintervention phase, consistent with the original analysis of the STAR*ICU trial. Our statistical framework was able to disentangle transmission from importation and account for imperfect testing. Epidemiological differences between VRE and MRSA were revealed.

Baseline Ability Makes a Larger Contribution to Race Performance in High-School Sprinters Than Race Experience or Training Exposure.

PURPOSE: There has long been a debate regarding the importance of talent versus training in athletic performance. In this study we sought to quantify their relative contributions to the race performance of high-school sprinters. METHODS: Using race results from the athletic.net website, we identified high-school athletes who participated in at least one race in both 9th and 12th grade in the 100 m, 200 m or 400 m. Athletes with a record of racing before high school were excluded from the analyses. Using separate linear regression models for each event and gender, we analyzed the effect of baseline ability, race experience and training exposure on race time in the 12th grade. RESULTS: 35,909 athletes, running a total of 1,627,652 races, contributed to the final analyses. The proportion of variance (R2) in 12th grade race times accounted for by baseline ability ranged from 40% to 51% depending on the event, and was consistently higher for females than males. Race experience explained 3.6-4.4% of the variance and training exposure explained 0.8-1.7%. CONCLUSION: Although race experience and training exposure impact high-school sprinters' performance, baseline ability is the dominant influence.