Arch watch: current approaches and opportunities for improvement.

Coarctation of the aorta (CoA) is a ductus arteriosus (DA)-dependent form of congenital heart disease (CHD) characterized by narrowing in the region of the aortic isthmus. CoA is a challenging diagnosis to make prenatally and is the critical cardiac lesion most likely to go undetected on the pulse oximetry-based newborn critical CHD screen. When undetected CoA causes obstruction to blood flow, life-threatening cardiovascular collapse may result, with a high burden of morbidity and mortality. Hemodynamic monitoring practices during DA closure (known as an "arch watch") vary across institutions and existing tools are often insensitive to developing arch obstruction. Novel measures of tissue oxygenation and oxygen deprivation may improve sensitivity and specificity for identifying evolving hemodynamic compromise in the newborn with CoA. We explore the benefits and limitations of existing and new tools to monitor the physiological changes of the aorta as the DA closes in infants at risk of CoA.

Accumulation of immune-suppressive CD4 + T cells in aging - tempering inflammaging at the expense of immunity.

The 'immune risk profile' has been shown to predict mortality in the elderly, highlighting the need to better understand age-related immune dysfunction. While aging leads to many defects affecting all arms of the immune system, this review is focused on the accrual of immuno-suppressive CD4 + T cell populations, including FoxP3 + regulatory T cells, and subsets of IL-10-producing T follicular helper cells. New data suggest that such accumulations constitute feedback mechanisms to temper the ongoing progressive low-grade inflammation that develops with age, the so-called "inflammaging", and by doing so, how they have the potential to promote healthier aging. However, they also impair effector immune responses, notably to infections, or vaccines. These studies also reinforce the idea that the aged immune system should not be considered as a poorly functional version of the young one, but more as a dynamic system in which CD4 + T cells, and other immune/non-immune subsets, differentiate, interact with their milieu and function differently than in young hosts. A better understanding of these unique interactions is thus needed to improve effector immune responses in the elderly, while keeping inflammaging under control.

Comparing predictive performance of pulmonary embolism risk stratification tools for acute clinical deterioration.

Objectives: Existing pulmonary embolism (PE) risk scores were developed to predict death within weeks, but not more proximate adverse events. We determined the ability of 3 PE risk stratification tools (simplified pulmonary embolism severity index [sPESI], 2019 European Society of Cardiology guidelines [ESC], and PE short-term clinical outcomes risk estimation [PE-SCORE]) to predict 5-day clinical deterioration after emergency department (ED) diagnosis of PE. Methods: We analyzed data from six EDs on ED patients with confirmed PE. Clinical deterioration was defined as death, respiratory failure, cardiac arrest, new dysrhythmia, sustained hypotension requiring vasopressors or volume resuscitation, or escalated intervention within 5 days of PE diagnosis. We determined sensitivity and specificity of sPESI, ESC, and PE-SCORE for predicting clinical deterioration. Results: Of 1569 patients, 24.5% had clinical deterioration within 5 days. sPESI, ESC, and PE-SCORE classifications were low-risk in 558 (35.6%), 167 (10.6%), and 309 (19.6%), respectively. Sensitivities of sPESI, ESC, and PE-SCORE for clinical deterioration were 81.8 (78, 85.7), 98.7 (97.6, 99.8), and 96.1 (94.2, 98), respectively. Specificities of sPESI, ESC, and PE-SCORE for clinical deterioration were 41.2 (38.4, 44), 13.7 (11.7, 15.6), and 24.8 (22.4, 27.3). Areas under the curve were 61.5 (59.1, 63.9), 56.2 (55.1, 57.3), and 60.5 (58.9, 62.0). Negative predictive values were 87.5 (84.7, 90.2), 97 (94.4, 99.6), and 95.1 (92.7, 97.5). Conclusions: ESC and PE-SCORE were better than sPESI for detecting clinical deterioration within 5 days after PE diagnosis.

Multicentre study protocol comparing standard NRP to deveLoped Educational Modules for Resuscitation of Neonates in the Delivery Room with Congenital Heart Disease (LEARN-CHD).

INTRODUCTION: Infants born with critical congenital heart defects (CCHDs) have unique transitional pathophysiology that often requires special resuscitation and management considerations in the delivery room (DR). While much is known about neonatal resuscitation of infants with CCHDs, current neonatal resuscitation guidelines such as the neonatal resuscitation programme (NRP) do not include algorithm modifications or education specific to CCHDs. The implementation of CCHD specific neonatal resuscitation education is further hampered by the large number of healthcare providers (HCPs) that need to be reached. Online learning modules (eLearning) may provide a solution but have not been designed or tested for this specific learning need. Our objective in this study is to design targeted eLearning modules for DR resuscitation of infants with specific CCHDs and compare HCP knowledge and team performance in simulated resuscitations among HCPs exposed to these modules compared with directed CCHD readings. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: In a prospective multicentre trial, HCP proficient in standard NRP education curriculum are randomised to either (a) directed CCHD readings or (b) CCHD eLearning modules developed by the study team. The efficacy of these modules will be evaluated using (a) individual preknowledge/postknowledge testing and (b) team-based resuscitation simulations. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol is approved by nine participating sites: the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board (IRB-P00042003), University of Alberta Research Ethics Board (Pro00114424), the Children's Wisconsin IRB (1760009-1), Nationwide Children's Hospital IRB (STUDY00001518), Milwaukee Children's IRB (1760009-1) and University of Texas Southwestern IRB (STU-2021-0457) and is under review at following sites: University of Cincinnati, Children's Healthcare of Atlanta, Children's Hospital of Los Angeles and Children's Mercy-Kansas City. Study results will be disseminated to participating individuals in a lay format and presented to the scientific community at paediatric and critical care conferences and published in relevant peer-reviewed journals.

Expanding current definitions of environmental stewardship through organizational mission statement analysis.

In recent years, environmental stewardship has been emphasized as one solution to social-ecological sustainability concerns, especially at the local scale. The Stewardship Mapping and Assessment Project (STEW-MAP) is a national research program developed by the USDA Forest Service that has been implemented at numerous locations in the United States and internationally. This study compared the mission statements of environmental stewardship groups in the Los Angeles River Watershed to previously proposed definitions and frameworks of organizational environmental stewardship to see how well they were reflected. A thematic analysis of the mission statements was also carried out to identify locally important themes and priorities. Results show that, although often consistent, the mission statements do not always reflect existing concepts around environmental stewardship. Additionally, environmental stewardship is not always explicit in the mission statements of organizations that are known to conduct these activities. We suggest that non-traditional groups that engage in stewardship work (i.e., research institutions) as well as groups focused on social issues are overlooked actors in sustainable city goals. A more comprehensive definition of environmental stewardship may be needed to bridge the gap between research and practice.

An atlas of gene regulatory networks for memory CD4 + T cells in youth and old age.

Aging profoundly affects immune-system function, promoting susceptibility to pathogens, cancers and chronic inflammation. We previously identified a population of IL-10-producing, T follicular helper-like cells (" Tfh10 "), linked to suppressed vaccine responses in aged mice. Here, we integrate single-cell ( sc )RNA-seq, scATAC-seq and genome-scale modeling to characterize Tfh10 - and the full CD4 + memory T cell ( CD4 + TM ) compartment - in young and old mice. We identified 13 CD4 + TM populations, which we validated through cross-comparison to prior scRNA-seq studies. We built gene regulatory networks ( GRNs ) that predict transcription-factor control of gene expression in each T-cell population and how these circuits change with age. Through integration with pan-cell aging atlases, we identified intercellular-signaling networks driving age-dependent changes in CD4 + TM. Our atlas of finely resolved CD4 + TM subsets, GRNs and cell-cell communication networks is a comprehensive resource of predicted regulatory mechanisms operative in memory T cells, presenting new opportunities to improve immune responses in the elderly.

Elevated CD153 Expression on Aged T Follicular Helper Cells is Vital for B cell Responses.

Our recent data showed that an aberrant IL-10-producing T follicular helper population (Tfh10) accumulates dramatically with age and is associated with age-related declines in vaccine responsiveness. Through single cell gene expression and chromatin accessibility analysis of IL-10+ and IL-10- memory CD4+ T cells from young and aged mice, we identified increased expression of CD153 on aged Tfh and Tfh10 cells. Mechanistically, we linked inflammaging (increased IL-6 levels) to elevated CD153 expression of Tfh cells through c-Maf. Surprisingly, blockade of CD153 in aged mice significantly reduced their vaccine-driven antibody response, which was associated with decreased expression of ICOS on antigen-specific Tfh cells. Combined, these data show that an IL-6/c-Maf/CD153 circuit is critical for maintaining ICOS expression. Thus, although overall Tfh-mediated B cell responses are reduced in the context of vaccines and aging, our data suggest that elevated expression of CD153 on Tfh cells potentiates the remaining Tfh function in aged mice.

Neutron Reflectometry and Molecular Simulations Demonstrate HIV-1 Nef Homodimer Formation on Model Lipid Bilayers.

The HIV-1 Nef protein plays a critical role in viral infectivity, high-titer replication in vivo, and immune escape of HIV-infected cells. Nef lacks intrinsic biochemical activity, functioning instead through interactions with diverse host cell signaling proteins and intracellular trafficking pathways. Previous studies have established an essential role for Nef homodimer formation at the plasma membrane for most if not all its functions. Here we combined neutron reflectometry of full-length myristoylated Nef bound to model lipid bilayers with molecular simulations based on previous X-ray crystal structures of Nef homodimers. This integrated approach provides direct evidence that Nef associates with the membrane as a homodimer with its structured core region displaced from the membrane for partner protein engagement. Parallel studies of a dimerization-defective mutant, Nef-L112D, demonstrate that the helical dimerization interface present in previous crystal structures stabilizes the membrane-bound dimer. X-ray crystallography of the Nef-L112D mutant in complex with the SH3 domain of the Nef-associated host cell kinase Hck revealed a monomeric 1:1 complex instead of the 2:2 dimer complex formed with wild-type Nef. Importantly, the crystal structure of the Nef-L112D core and SH3 interface are virtually identical to the wild-type complex, indicating that this mutation does not affect the overall Nef fold. These findings support the intrinsic capacity of Nef to homodimerize at lipid bilayers using structural features present in X-ray crystal structures of dimeric complexes.

Quality of life 1 month after acute pulmonary embolism in emergency department patients.

OBJECTIVE: The Pulmonary Embolism Quality-of-Life (PEmb-QoL) questionnaire assesses quality of life (QoL) after pulmonary embolism (PE). We aimed to determine whether any clinical or pathophysiologic features of PE were associated with worse PEmb-QoL scores 1 month after PE. METHODS: In this prospective multicenter registry, we conducted PEmb-QoL questionnaires. We determined differences in QoL domain scores for four primary variables: clinical deterioration (death, cardiac arrest, respiratory failure, hypotension requiring fluid bolus, catecholamine support, or new dysrhythmia), right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), PE risk stratification, and subsequent rehospitalization. For overall QoL score, we fit a multivariable regression model that included these four primary variables as independent variables. RESULTS: Of 788 PE patients participating in QoL assessments, 156 (19.8%) had a clinical deterioration event, 236 (30.7%) had RVD of which 38 (16.1%) had escalated interventions. For those without and with clinical deterioration, social limitations had mean (±SD) scores of 2.07 (±1.27) and 2.36 (±1.47), respectively (p = 0.027). For intensity of complaints, mean (±SD) scores for patients without RVD (4.32 ± 2.69) were significantly higher than for those with RVD with or without reperfusion interventions (3.82 ± 1.81 and 3.83 ± 2.11, respectively; p = 0.043). There were no domain score differences between PE risk stratification groups. All domain scores were worse for patients with rehospitalization versus without. By multivariable analysis, worse total PEmb-QoL scores with effect sizes were subsequent rehospitalization 11.29 (6.68-15.89), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) 8.17 (3.91-12.43), and longer index hospital length of stay 0.06 (0.03-0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Acute clinical deterioration, RVD, and PE severity were not predictors of QoL at 1 month post-PE. Independent predictors of worsened QoL were rehospitalization, COPD, and index hospital length of stay.

Acute-on-Chronic Lithium Toxicity: A Simulation Case for Emergency Medicine Residents.

Introduction: Simulation-based education has become standard within emergency medicine training. Toxicological clinical presentations are challenging to identify and treat in the emergency department. Recognizing that active teaching methods are superior to standard lecture for learner retention, we created an experiential simulation case for education on lithium toxicity. The case was written after an extensive literature review followed by consultation with a medical toxicologist and an expert in simulation-based education. Methods: Fifty-three residents participated in a simulation scenario involving a lithium-poisoned patient over the course of eight simulation sessions. The scenario ran approximately 10 minutes and was followed by postevent debriefing. Debriefing was facilitated by an emergency medicine attending with specialized training in simulation-based education. Following the completion of the scenario, residents received an anonymous educational quality improvement survey assessing residents' perception of their ability to recognize and manage lithium toxicity as well as their comfort level with the lithium-poisoned patient. Results: After the simulation, residents reported an increased comfort level with managing lithium-poisoned patients. Residents also self-reported an increased ability to recognize the signs and symptoms of lithium toxicity. Additionally, residents cited the case's educational importance and a desire to include this specific scenario in future simulation sessions. Discussion: Compared to other disease processes, toxicological overdoses are infrequently seen in the emergency department. Health care simulation can effectively portray lithium toxicity for emergency medicine resident education in a safe, controlled environment to increase repetitive practice in caring for this challenging population.

Naturally-aged microglia exhibit phagocytic dysfunction accompanied by gene expression changes reflective of underlying neurologic disease.

Age-associated microglial dysfunction contributes to the accumulation of amyloid-ß (Aß) plaques in Alzheimer's disease. Although several studies have shown age-related declines in the phagocytic capacity of myeloid cells, relatively few have examined phagocytosis of normally aged microglia. Furthermore, much of the existing data on aging microglial function have been generated in accelerated genetic models of Alzheimer's disease. Here we found that naturally aged microglia phagocytosed less Aß over time. To gain a better understanding of such dysfunction, we assessed differences in gene expression between young and old microglia that either did or did not phagocytose Aß. Young microglia had both phagocytic and neuronal maintenance signatures indicative of normal microglial responses, whereas, old microglia, regardless of phagocytic status, exhibit signs of broad dysfunction reflective of underlying neurologic disease states. We also found downregulation of many phagocytic receptors on old microglia, including TREM2, an Aß phagocytic receptor. TREM2 protein expression was diminished in old microglia and loss of TREM2+ microglia was correlated with impaired Aß uptake, suggesting a mechanism for phagocytic dysfunction in old microglia. Combined, our work reveals that normally aged microglia have broad changes in gene expression, including defects in Aß phagocytosis that likely underlies the progression to neurologic disease.

A burning issue: Reviewing the socio-demographic and environmental justice aspects of the wildfire literature.

Larger and more severe wildfires are becoming more frequent and impacting different communities and human settlements. Much of the scientific literature and media on wildfires has focused on area of ecosystems burned and numbers of structures destroyed. Equally unprecedented, but often less reported, are the increasing socioeconomic impacts different people and communities face from wildfires. Such information seems to indicate an emerging need to account for wildfire effects on peri-urban or wildland urban interface (WUI) areas, newer socio-demographic groups, and disadvantaged communities. To address this, we reviewed the socio-demographic dimensions of the wildfire literature using an environmental justice (EJ) lens. Specifically using a literature review of wildfires, human communities, social vulnerability, and homeowner mitigation, we conducted bibliometric and statistical analyses of 299 publications. The majority of publications were from the United States, followed by Canada and Australia, and most dealt with homeowner mitigation of risk, defensible space, and fuel treatments in WUI areas. Most publications studied the direct effects of wildfire related damage. Secondary impacts such as smoke, rural and urban communities, and the role of poverty and language were less studied. Based on a proposed wildfire-relevant EJ definition, the first EJ publication was in 2004, but the term was first used as a keyword in 2018. Studies in WUI communities statistically decreased the likelihood that a publication was EJ relevant. There was a significant relationship between EJ designation and inclusion of race/ethnicity and poverty variables in the study. Complexity across the various definitions of EJ suggest that it should not be used as a quantitative or binary metric; but as a lens to better understand socio-ecological impacts to diverse communities. We present a wildfire-relevant definition to potentially guide policy formulation and account for social and environmental justice issues.

An analysis of statistical terminology applied in emergency medicine literature methods.

INTRODUCTION: Given the importance of understanding methodical reporting and statistical terminology in ensuring evidence-based decision-making, physicians should possess statistical literacy. The purpose of this study was to distinguish statistical terminology commonly used in emergency medicine methods and describe changes in statistical methods from 2011 to 2021. METHODS: The research team chose four journals in emergency medicine widely read and clinically relevant: Academic Emergency Medicine, American Journal of Emergency Medicine, Annals of Emergency Medicine, and Journal of Emergency Medicine. A total of 400 research articles were included. The team compared overall frequencies in statistical word counts as well as differences by year (2021 vs 2011). RESULTS: Included words from 2011 totaled 31,002 compared to 38,272 in 2021. Unique words for 2011 included 3801 compared to 4291 in 2021. The most common statistical words found in both years were model(s), difference(s), and regression(s). The largest increases in usage included the following words: noninferior(ity), NPV, Fixed, AUC, Mixed, Shapiro, and Wilk. Compared to 2011, results showed a 10% decrease in "p" for 2021. While the terms "Confidence" (2%) and "Intervals" (6%) decreased from 2011 to 2021, there was a 25% increase in "CI(s)". CONCLUSION: By understanding common statistical terms and trends over time, educational efforts can be targeted to consumers of EM literature. Additionally, this work provides evidence suggesting an overall improvement in processes in statistical methodology, enhancing the quality of research outputs and ultimately allowing better clinical decision-making.

Electrocardiographic findings associated with early clinical deterioration in acute pulmonary embolism.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine associations of early electrocardiogram (ECG) patterns with clinical deterioration (CD) within 5 days and with RV abnormality (abnlRV) by echocardiography in pulmonary embolism (PE). METHODS: In this prospective, multicenter study of newly confirmed PE patients, early echocardiography and initial ECG were examined. Initial ECG patterns included lead-specific ST-segment elevation (STE) or depression (STD), T-wave inversion (TWI), supraventricular tachycardia (SVT), sinus tachycardia, and right bundle branch block as complete (cRBBB) or incomplete (iRBBB). We defined CD as respiratory failure, hypotension, dysrhythmia, cardiac arrest, escalated PE intervention, or death within 5 days. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for CD and abnlRV with univariate and full multivariate models in the presence of other variables. RESULTS: Of 1676 patients, 1629 (97.2%) had both ECG and GDE; 415/1676 (24.7%) had CD, and 529/1629 (32.4%) had abnlRV. AbnlRV had an OR for CD of 4.25 (3.35, 5.38). By univariable analysis, the absence of abnormal ECG patterns had OR for CD and abnlRV of 0.34 (0.26, 0.44; p < 0.001) and 0.24 (0.18, 0.31; p < 0.001), respectively. By multivariable analyses, one ECG pattern had a significant OR for CD: SVT 2.87 (1.66, 5.00). Significant ORS for abnlRV were: TWI V2-4 4.0 (2.64, 6.12), iRBBB 2.63 (1.59, 4.38), STE aVR 2.42 (1.58, 3.74), S1-Q3-T3 2.42 (1.70, 3.47), and sinus tachycardia 1.68 (1.14, 2.49). CONCLUSIONS: SVT was an independent predictor of CD. TWI V2-4 , iRBBB, STE aVR, sinus tachycardia, and S1-Q3-T3 were independent predictors of abnlRV. Finding one or more of these ECG patterns may increase considerations for performance of echocardiography to look for RV abnormalities and, if present, inform concerns for early clinical deterioration.

Rethinking Congenital Heart Disease in Preterm Neonates.

Congenital heart disease (CHD) and prematurity are the leading causes of infant mortality in the United States. Importantly, the combination of prematurity and CHD results in a further increased risk of mortality and significant morbidity. The key factors in these adverse outcomes are not well understood, but likely include maternal-fetal environment, perinatal and neonatal elements, and challenging postnatal care. Preterm neonates with CHD are born with "double jeopardy": not only do they experience challenges related to immaturity of the lungs, brain, and other organs, but they also must undergo treatment for cardiac disease. The role of the neonatologist caring for preterm infants with CHD has changed with the evolution of the field of pediatric cardiac critical care. Increasingly, neonatologists invested in the cardiovascular care of the newborn with CHD engage at multiple stages in their course, including fetal consultation, delivery room management, preoperative care, and postoperative treatment. A more comprehensive understanding of prematurity and CHD may inform clinical practice and ultimately improve outcomes in preterm infants with CHD. In this review, we discuss the current evidence surrounding neonatal and cardiac outcomes in preterm infants with CHD; examine the prenatal, perinatal, and postnatal factors recognized to influence these outcomes; identify knowledge gaps; consider research and clinical opportunities; and highlight the ways in which a neonatologist can contribute to the care of preterm infants with CHD.

Can right ventricular assessments improve triaging of low risk pulmonary embolism?

OBJECTIVES: Identifying right ventricle (RV) abnormalities is important to stratifying pulmonary embolism (PE) severity. Disposition decisions are influenced by concerns about early deterioration. Triaging strategies, like the Simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), do not include RV assessments as predictors or early deterioration as outcome(s). We aimed to (1) determine if RV assessment variables add prognostic accuracy for 5-day clinical deterioration in patients classified low risk by sPESI, and (2) determine the prognostic importance of RV assessments compared to other variables and to each other. METHODS: We identified low risk sPESI patients (sPESI = 0) from a prospective PE registry. From a large field of candidate variables, we developed, and compared prognostic accuracy of, full and reduced random forest models (with and without RV assessment variables, respectively) on a validation database. We reported variable importance plots from full random forest and provided odds ratios for statistical inference of importance from multivariable logistic regression. Outcomes were death, cardiac arrest, hypotension, dysrhythmia, or respiratory failure within 5 days of PE. RESULTS: Of 1736 patients, 610 (35.1%) were low risk by sPESI and 72 (11.8%) experienced early deterioration. Of the 610, RV abnormality was present in 157 (25.7%) by CT, 121 (19.8%) by echocardiography, 132 (21.6%) by natriuretic peptide, and 107 (17.5%) by troponin. For deterioration, the receiver operating characteristics for full and reduced random forest prognostic models were 0.80 (0.77-0.82) and 0.71 (0.68-0.73), respectively. RV assessments were the top four in the variable importance plot for the random forest model. Echocardiography and CT significantly increased predicted probability of 5-day clinical deterioration by the multivariable logistic regression. CONCLUSIONS: A PE triaging strategy with RV imaging assessments had superior prognostic performance at classifying low risk for 5-day clinical deterioration versus one without.

Prospective study of haloperidol plus lorazepam versus droperidol plus midazolam for the treatment of acute agitation in the emergency department.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the combination of intramuscular (IM) droperidol/midazolam to haloperidol/lorazepam regarding time to sedation in patients with acute undifferentiated agitation in the emergency department (ED). METHODS: This was a prospective, unblinded observational study in the ED of a university teaching hospital. Subjects with acute undifferentiated agitation refractory to verbal de-escalation were assigned to receive a combination of either haloperidol 5 mg/lorazepam 2 mg or droperidol 5 mg/midazolam 5 mg IM. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients adequately sedated at 10 min defined as ED Sedation Assessment Tool (SAT) score of 0 or less. Secondary outcomes included change in ED SAT score at 5, 15, 30, and 60 min, the need for oxygen supplementation, and the need for airway intervention. RESULTS: A total of 86 patients were enrolled in the study, with 43 patients receiving droperidol/midazolam and 43 patients receiving haloperidol/lorazepam. Ten minutes after receiving medication, 51.2% of patients in the droperidol/midazolam group were adequately sedated compared to 7% of patients in the haloperidol/lorazepam group (OR: 14; 95% CI: 3.7, 52.1). Median time to adequate sedation was 10 min for the droperidol/midazolam group and 30 min for the haloperidol/lorazepam group. Eleven patients (25.6%) in the droperidol/midazolam group received oxygen supplementation compared to four patients (9.3%) in the haloperidol/lorazepam group. No study patients experienced extrapyramidal symptoms or required endotracheal intubation. CONCLUSION: Intramuscular droperidol/midazolam was superior to intramuscular haloperidol/lorazepam in achieving adequate sedation at 10 min. Patients in the droperidol/midazolam arm may be more likely to receive oxygen supplementation than those in the haloperidol/lorazepam arm.

Development and validation of a prognostic tool: Pulmonary embolism short-term clinical outcomes risk estimation (PE-SCORE).

OBJECTIVE: Develop and validate a prognostic model for clinical deterioration or death within days of pulmonary embolism (PE) diagnosis using point-of-care criteria. METHODS: We used prospective registry data from six emergency departments. The primary composite outcome was death or deterioration (respiratory failure, cardiac arrest, new dysrhythmia, sustained hypotension, and rescue reperfusion intervention) within 5 days. Candidate predictors included laboratory and imaging right ventricle (RV) assessments. The prognostic model was developed from 935 PE patients. Univariable analysis of 138 candidate variables was followed by penalized and standard logistic regression on 26 retained variables, and then tested with a validation database (N = 801). RESULTS: Logistic regression yielded a nine-variable model, then simplified to a nine-point tool (PE-SCORE): one point each for abnormal RV by echocardiography, abnormal RV by computed tomography, systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg, dysrhythmia, suspected/confirmed systemic infection, syncope, medico-social admission reason, abnormal heart rate, and two points for creatinine greater than 2.0 mg/dL. In the development database, 22.4% had the primary outcome. Prognostic accuracy of logistic regression model versus PE-SCORE model: 0.83 (0.80, 0.86) vs. 0.78 (0.75, 0.82) using area under the curve (AUC) and 0.61 (0.57, 0.64) vs. 0.50 (0.39, 0.60) using precision-recall curve (AUCpr). In the validation database, 26.6% had the primary outcome. PE-SCORE had AUC 0.77 (0.73, 0.81) and AUCpr 0.63 (0.43, 0.81). As points increased, outcome proportions increased: a score of zero had 2% outcome, whereas scores of six and above had ≥ 69.6% outcomes. In the validation dataset, PE-SCORE zero had 8% outcome [no deaths], whereas all patients with PE-SCORE of six and above had the primary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: PE-SCORE model identifies PE patients at low- and high-risk for deterioration and may help guide decisions about early outpatient management versus need for hospital-based monitoring.