Managing Forests for Biodiversity Conservation and Climate Change Mitigation.

We include biodiversity impacts in forest management decision making by incorporating the countryside species area relationship model into the partial equilibrium model GLOBIOM-Forest. We tested three forest management intensities (low, medium, and high) and limited biodiversity loss via an additional constraint on regional species loss. We analyzed two scenarios for climate change mitigation. RCP1.9, the higher mitigation scenario, has more biodiversity loss than the reference RCP7.0, suggesting a trade-off between climate change mitigation, with increased bioenergy use, and biodiversity conservation in forests. This trade-off can be alleviated with biodiversity-conscious forest management by (1) shifting biomass production destined to bioenergy from forests to energy crops, (2) increasing areas under unmanaged secondary forest, (3) reducing forest management intensity, and (4) reallocating biomass production between and within regions. With these mechanisms, it is possible to reduce potential global biodiversity loss by 10% with minor changes in economic outcomes. The global aggregated reduction in biodiversity impacts does not imply that biodiversity impacts are reduced in each ecoregion. We exemplify how to connect an ecologic and an economic model to identify trade-offs, challenges, and possibilities for improved decisions. We acknowledge the limitations of this approach, especially of measuring and projecting biodiversity loss.

Relation of blood lead levels and lead in gasoline: an updated systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Millions of tons of lead were added to gasoline worldwide beginning in 1922, and leaded gasoline has been a major source of population lead exposure. In 1960s, lead began to be removed from automotive gasoline. Removal was completed in 2021. OBJECTIVES: To determine whether removal of lead from automotive gasoline is associated with declines in population mean blood lead levels (BPb). METHODS: We examined published studies that reported population blood leaded levels for two or more years, and we calculated average concentrations of lead in gasoline corresponding to the years and locations of the blood lead level measurements. RESULTS: Removal of lead from gasoline is associated with declines in BPb in all countries examined. In some countries, BPb continues to fall after lead has been eliminated from gasoline. Following elimination of lead from gasoline, BPb less than 1 µg/dL have been observed in several European and North American countries, and BPb less than 3 µg/dL have been documented in several studies from South America. DISCUSSION: There remain many countries for which no multi-year studies of populations BPb have been identified, including all of Central America, high population countries including Pakistan and Indonesia, and major lead producers including Australia and Russia. CONCLUSION: Removal of lead from gasoline has been a public health success. Elimination of lead from gasoline has enabled many countries to achieve population mean BPb levels of 1 µg/dL or lower. These actions have saved lives, increased children's intelligence and created great economic benefit in countries worldwide.

Incorporating New Technologies in EEIO Models.

We propose a methodology to add new technologies into Environmentally Extended Input-Output (EEIO) models based on a Supply and Use framework. The methodology provides for adding new industries (new technologies) and a new commodity under the assumption that the new commodity will partially substitute for a functionally-similar existing commodity of the baseline economy. The level of substitution is controlled by a percentage (%) as a variable of the model. In the Use table, a percentage of the current use of the existing commodity is transferred to the new commodity. The Supply or Make table is modified assuming that the new industries are the only ones producing the new commodity. We illustrate the method for the USEEIO model, for the addition of second generation biofuels, including naphtha, jet fuel and diesel fuel. The new industries' inputs, outputs and value-added components needed to produce the new commodity are drawn from process-based life cycle inventories (LCIs). Process-based LCI inputs and outputs per physical functional unit are transformed to prices and assigned to commodities and environmental flow categories for the EEIO model. This methodology is designed to evaluate the environmental impacts of substituting products in the current US economy with bio-versions, produced by new technologies, that are intended to reduce negative environmental impacts. However, it can be applied for any new commodity for which the substitution assumption is reasonable.

Recovery of Critical Metals from Aqueous Sources.

Critical metals, identified from supply, demand, imports, and market factors, include rare earth elements (REE), platinum group metals, precious metals, and other valuable metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and uranium. Extraction of metals from U.S. saline aqueous, emphasizing saline, sources is explored as an alternative to hardrock ore mining. Potential aqueous sources include seawater, desalination brines, oil-and-gas produced waters, geothermal aquifers, and acid mine drainage, among others. A feasibility assessment reveals opportunities for recovery of lithium, strontium, magnesium, and several REE from select sources, in quantities significant for U.S. manufacturing and for reduction of U.S. reliance on international supply chains. This is a conservative assessment given that water quality data are lacking for a significant number of critical metals in certain sources. The technology landscape for extraction and recovery of critical metals from aqueous sources is explored, identifying relevant processes along with knowledge gaps. Our analysis indicates that aqueous mining would result in much lower environmental impacts on water, air, and land than ore mining. Preliminary assessments of the economics and energy consumption of recovery show potential for recovery of critical metals.

Combined Heat and Power May Conflict with Decarbonization Goals-Air Emissions of Natural Gas Combined Cycle Power versus Combined Heat and Power Systems for Commercial Buildings.

This study compares the environmental impacts of a centralized natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) and a distributed natural gas-fired combined heat and power (CHP) energy system in the United States. We develop an energy-balance model in which each energy system supplies the electric, heating, and cooling demands of 16 commercial building types in 16 climate zones of the United States. We assume a best-case scenario where all the CHP's heat and power are allocated toward building demands to ensure robust results. We quantify the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, conventional air pollutants (CAPs), and natural gas (NG) consumption. In most cases, the decentralized CHP system increases GHG emissions, decreases CAP emissions, and decreases NG consumption relative to the centralized NGCC system. Only fuel-cell CHPs were able to simultaneously reduce GHG, CAP, and NG consumption relative to the NGCC-based system. The results suggest that despite their energy efficiency benefits, standard distributed CHP-based systems typically do not have enough benefits compared to an NGCC-based system to justify a reorganization of existing infrastructure systems. Because fuel-cell CHPs can also use hydrogen as a fuel source, they are compatible with decarbonized energy systems and may aid in the transition toward a cleaner energy economy.

Similarities in Recalcitrant Structures of Industrial Non-Kraft and Kraft Lignin.

This work compares the structure of industrially isolated lignin samples from kraft pulping and three alternative processes: butanol organosolv, supercritical water hydrolysis, and sulfur dioxide/ethanol/water fractionation. Kraft processes are known to produce highly condensed lignin, with reduced potential for catalytic depolymerization, whereas the alternative processes have been hypothesized to impact the lignin less. The structural properties most relevant to catalytic depolymerization are characterized by elemental analysis, quantitative 13 C and 2 D HQSC NMR spectroscopy, gel permeation chromatography, and thermogravimetric analysis. Quantification of the ß-O-4 ether bond content shows partial depolymerization, with all samples having less than 12 bonds per 100 aromatic units. This results in theoretical monomer yields of less than 5 %, strongly suggesting the alternative fractionation processes generate highly condensed lignin structures that are no more suitable for catalytic depolymerization than kraft lignin. However, the different thermal degradation profiles suggest there are physicochemical differences that could be leveraged in other valorization strategies.

New approach for optimal electricity planning and dispatching with hourly time-scale air quality and health considerations.

Integrating accurate air quality modeling with decision making is hampered by complex atmospheric physics and chemistry and its coupling with atmospheric transport. Existing approaches to model the physics and chemistry accurately lead to significant computational burdens in computing the response of atmospheric concentrations to changes in emissions profiles. By integrating a reduced form of a fully coupled atmospheric model within a unit commitment optimization model, we allow, for the first time to our knowledge, a fully dynamical approach toward electricity planning that accurately and rapidly minimizes both cost and health impacts. The reduced-form model captures the response of spatially resolved air pollutant concentrations to changes in electricity-generating plant emissions on an hourly basis with accuracy comparable to a comprehensive air quality model. The integrated model allows for the inclusion of human health impacts into cost-based decisions for power plant operation. We use the new capability in a case study of the state of Georgia over the years of 2004-2011, and show that a shift in utilization among existing power plants during selected hourly periods could have provided a health cost savings of $175.9 million dollars for an additional electricity generation cost of $83.6 million in 2007 US dollars (USD2007). The case study illustrates how air pollutant health impacts can be cost-effectively minimized by intelligently modulating power plant operations over multihour periods, without implementing additional emissions control technologies.

Coordinated EV adoption: double-digit reductions in emissions and fuel use for $40/vehicle-year.

Adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) would affect the costs and sources of electricity and the United States efficiency requirements for conventional vehicles (CVs). We model EV adoption scenarios in each of six regions of the Eastern Interconnection, containing 70% of the United States population. We develop electricity system optimization models at the multidecade, day-ahead, and hour-ahead time scales, incorporating spatial wind energy modeling, endogenous modeling of CV efficiencies, projections for EV efficiencies, and projected CV and EV costs. We find two means to reduce total consumer expenditure (TCE): (i) controlling charge timing and (ii) unlinking the fuel economy regulations for CVs from EVs. Although EVs provide minimal direct GHG reductions, controlled charging provides load flexibility, lowering the cost of renewable electricity. Without EVs, a 33% renewable electricity standard (RES) would cost $193/vehicle-year more than the reference case (10% RES). Combining a 33% RES, EVs with controlled charging and unlinking would reduce combined electric- and vehicle-sector CO2 emissions by 27% and reduce gasoline consumption by 59% for $40/vehicle-year more than the reference case. Coordinating EV adoption with adoption of controlled charging, unlinked fuel economy regulations, and renewable electricity standards would provide low-cost reductions in emissions and fuel usage.

Electric urban delivery trucks: energy use, greenhouse gas emissions, and cost-effectiveness.

We compare electric and diesel urban delivery trucks in terms of life-cycle energy consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and total cost of ownership (TCO). The relative benefits of electric trucks depend heavily on vehicle efficiency associated with drive cycle, diesel fuel price, travel demand, electric drive battery replacement and price, electricity generation and transmission efficiency, electric truck recharging infrastructure, and purchase price. For a drive cycle with frequent stops and low average speed such as the New York City Cycle (NYCC), electric trucks emit 42-61% less GHGs and consume 32-54% less energy than diesel trucks, depending upon vehicle efficiency cases. Over an array of possible conditions, the median TCO of electric trucks is 22% less than that of diesel trucks on the NYCC. For a drive cycle with less frequent stops and high average speed such as the City-Suburban Heavy Vehicle Cycle (CSHVC), electric trucks emit 19-43% less GHGs and consume 5-34% less energy, but cost 1% more than diesel counterparts. Considering current and projected U.S. regional electricity generation mixes, for the baseline case, the energy use and GHG emissions ratios of electric to diesel trucks range from 48 to 82% and 25 to 89%, respectively.

Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions for an ethanol production process based on blue-green algae.

Ethanol can be produced via an intracellular photosynthetic process in cyanobacteria (blue-green algae), excreted through the cell walls, collected from closed photobioreactors as a dilute ethanol-in-water solution, and purified to fuel grade ethanol. This sequence forms the basis for a biofuel production process that is currently being examined for its commercial potential. In this paper, we calculate the life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions for three different system scenarios for this proposed ethanol production process, using process simulations and thermodynamic calculations. The energy required for ethanol separation increases rapidly for low initial concentrations of ethanol, and, unlike other biofuel systems, there is little waste biomass available to provide process heat and electricity to offset those energy requirements. The ethanol purification process is a major consumer of energy and a significant contributor to the carbon footprint. With a lead scenario based on a natural-gas-fueled combined heat and power system to provide process electricity and extra heat and conservative assumptions around the ethanol separation process, the net life cycle energy consumption, excluding photosynthesis, ranges from 0.55 MJ/MJ(EtOH) down to 0.20 MJ/ MJ(EtOH), and the net life cycle greenhouse gas emissions range from 29.8 g CO2e/MJ(EtOH) down to 12.3 g CO2e/MJ(EtOH) for initial ethanol concentrations from 0.5 wt % to 5 wt %. In comparison to gasoline, these predicted values represent 67% and 87% reductions in the carbon footprint for this ethanol fuel on a energy equivalent basis. Energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions can be further reduced via employment of higher efficiency heat exchangers in ethanol purification and/ or with use of solar thermal for some of the process heat.

Relation of chlorine, copper and sulphur to dioxin emission factors.

Dioxin emission factors for different combustion categories range over five orders of magnitude. Both chlorine (Cl(2)) and transition metals, including copper (Cu) have been suggested to promote the formation of dioxin in incinerators, and sulphur (S) has been suggested to inhibit dioxin formation. We show that dioxin (PCDD and PCDF) emission factors from 17 different combustion categories are approximately linearly correlated with the average copper or chlorine content of the combusted material, and inverse linearly correlated with the average sulphur content of the material. Copper and chlorine are correlated and, thus cannot be distinguished. The analysis suggests that the wide range of dioxin emission factors could be explained by the content of sulphur and transition metals or chlorine in combusted materials.

Systematic approach to evaluating trade-offs among fuel options: the lessons of MTBE.

The fuel additive methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) has been used in an effort to improve air quality in the United States, but other undesirable effects, particularly the contamination of water resources, were eventually judged to outweigh any air quality benefits it may have offered. The experience with MTBE offers many lessons, including the need to evaluate potential positive and negative environmental impacts associated with fuel choices using a comprehensive approach that combines a product life-cycle perspective with the risk assessment paradigm. Such an approach, referred to as "comprehensive environmental assessment" (CEA), is illustrated here by highlighting some of the issues that might be considered in evaluating reformulated gasoline (RFG) produced with MTBE, ethanol, or no oxygenate.

Theoretical calculation of product contents: battery and cathode ray tube examples.

Most product environmental assessments are based on manufacturer-supplied data on the material content of the product. This paper explores the potential for the material content of key components to be estimated with theoretical calculations. Two examples, the amount of cadmium in a nickel-cadmium battery and the amount of lead in a TV or computer CRT monitor, are developed. Both an upper and a lower limit on the amount of cadmium in a nickel-cadmium battery are calculated on the basis of the battery's chemical reaction. The amount of lead shielding needed in a TV or CRT computer monitor is estimated on the basis of the potential difference through which electrons are accelerated and the absorption length of photons in lead. Such calculations can be used as benchmarks in product environmental assessments, providing validation of manufacturer-supplied data and providing insight into the composition and design of products.

Product self-management: evolution in recycling and reuse.

This paper explores the potential to make product recycling and reuse easier by shifting responsibility for product management toward the product itself. Examples range from barcode-enabled Internet sales of used products to RFID-enabled garbage trucks that identify recyclable items and provide rebates. Initial steps toward product self-management have made opportunistic use of product bar codes and Internet markets. In the United States, Internet markets are driving increased reuse of products. In the European Union, recycling and waste management policy is driving the use of radio electronics in waste management. Prospects for product self-management are assessed from both a technological and an economic perspective. The technological analysis indicates that radio-frequency tags offer some advantages over bar codes, but their application to product self-management requires considerable investment in the waste management infrastructure. This suggests that early applications of advanced product tags are most suitable for Germany and other countries where the waste management industry has already integrated information technology into its operations. The economic analysis indicates that increased reuse of products can reduce consumption of new products and materials, although on a less than one-to-one basis, simultaneously reducing costs for consumers and deriving more value from existing products.

Research issues in sustainable consumption: toward an analytical framework for materials and the environment.

We define key research questions as a stimulus to research in the area of industrial ecology. The first group of questions addresses analytical support for green engineering and environmental policy. They relate to (i) tools for green engineering, (ii) improvements in life cycle assessment, (iii) aggregation of environmental impacts, and (iv) effectiveness of a range of innovative policy approaches. The second group of questions addresses the dynamics of technology, economics, and environmental impacts. They relate to (v) the environmental impacts of material and energy consumption, (vi) the potential for material efficiency, (vii) the relation of technological and economic development to changes in consumption patterns, and (viii) the potential for technology to overcome environmental impacts and constraints. Altogether, the questions create an intellectual agenda for industrial ecology and integrate the technological and social aspects of sustainability.