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Terrestrial water fluxes are substantially mediated by vegetation, while the distribution, growth, health, and mortality of plants are strongly influenced by the availability of water. These interactions, playing out across multiple spatial and temporal scales, link the disciplines of plant ecophysiology and ecohydrology. Despite this connection, the disciplines have provided complementary, but largely independent, perspectives on the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum since their crystallization as modern scientific disciplines in the late 20th century. This review traces the development of the two disciplines, from their respective origins in engineering and ecology, their largely independent growth and maturation, and the eventual development of common conceptual and quantitative frameworks. This common ground has allowed explicit coupling of the disciplines to better understand plant function. Case studies both illuminate the limitations of the disciplines working in isolation, and reveal the exciting possibilities created by consilience between the disciplines. The histories of the two disciplines suggest opportunities for new advances will arise from sharing methodologies, working across multiple levels of complexity, and leveraging new observational technologies. Practically, these exchanges can be supported by creating shared scientific spaces. This review argues that consilience and collaboration are essential for robust and evidence-based predictions and policy responses under global change.
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Plantas , Plantas/metabolismo , Fenômenos Fisiológicos Vegetais , Hidrologia , Ecologia , Ecossistema , Água/metabolismo , Água/fisiologiaRESUMO
Observations show vulnerability segmentation between stems and leaves is highly variable within and between environments. While a number of species exhibit conventional vulnerability segmentation (stem P 50 < ${P}_{50}\lt $ leaf P 50 ${P}_{50}$ ), others exhibit no vulnerability segmentation and others reverse vulnerability segmentation (stem P 50 > ${P}_{50}\gt $ leaf P 50 ${P}_{50}$ ). We developed a hydraulic model to test hypotheses about vulnerability segmentation and how it interacts with other traits to impact plant conductance. We do this using a series of experiments across a broad parameter space and with a case study of two species with contrasting vulnerability segmentation patterns: Quercus douglasii and Populus trichocarpa. We found that while conventional vulnerability segmentation helps to preserve conductance in stem tissues, reverse vulnerability segmentation can better maintain conductance across the combined stem-leaf hydraulic pathway, particularly when plants have more vulnerable P 50 ${P}_{50}$ s and have hydraulic segmentation with greater resistance in the leaves. These findings show that the impacts of vulnerability segmentation are dependent upon other plant traits, notably hydraulic segmentation, a finding that could assist in the interpretation of variable observations of vulnerability segmentation. Further study is needed to examine how vulnerability segmentation impacts transpiration rates and recovery from water stress.
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Transpiração Vegetal , Quercus , Folhas de Planta , Transporte Biológico , Fenótipo , Caules de Planta , XilemaRESUMO
In 2020, the Australian and New Zealand flux research and monitoring network, OzFlux, celebrated its 20th anniversary by reflecting on the lessons learned through two decades of ecosystem studies on global change biology. OzFlux is a network not only for ecosystem researchers, but also for those 'next users' of the knowledge, information and data that such networks provide. Here, we focus on eight lessons across topics of climate change and variability, disturbance and resilience, drought and heat stress and synergies with remote sensing and modelling. In distilling the key lessons learned, we also identify where further research is needed to fill knowledge gaps and improve the utility and relevance of the outputs from OzFlux. Extreme climate variability across Australia and New Zealand (droughts and flooding rains) provides a natural laboratory for a global understanding of ecosystems in this time of accelerating climate change. As evidence of worsening global fire risk emerges, the natural ability of these ecosystems to recover from disturbances, such as fire and cyclones, provides lessons on adaptation and resilience to disturbance. Drought and heatwaves are common occurrences across large parts of the region and can tip an ecosystem's carbon budget from a net CO2 sink to a net CO2 source. Despite such responses to stress, ecosystems at OzFlux sites show their resilience to climate variability by rapidly pivoting back to a strong carbon sink upon the return of favourable conditions. Located in under-represented areas, OzFlux data have the potential for reducing uncertainties in global remote sensing products, and these data provide several opportunities to develop new theories and improve our ecosystem models. The accumulated impacts of these lessons over the last 20 years highlights the value of long-term flux observations for natural and managed systems. A future vision for OzFlux includes ongoing and newly developed synergies with ecophysiologists, ecologists, geologists, remote sensors and modellers.
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Dióxido de Carbono , Ecossistema , Austrália , Ciclo do Carbono , Mudança ClimáticaRESUMO
Hydrogen sulfide (H2 S) plays a crucial signalling role in a variety of physiological systems, existing as the hydrosulfide anion (HS- ) at physiological pH. Combining the potency of halogen bonding (XB) for anion recognition in water with coumarin fluorophore incorporation in acyclic host structural design, the first XB receptors to bind and, more importantly, sense the hydrosulfide anion in pure water in a reversible chemosensing fashion are demonstrated. The XB receptors exhibit characteristic selective quenching of fluorescence upon binding to HS- . Computational DFT and molecular dynamics simulations in water corroborate the experimental anion binding observations, revealing the mode and nature of HS- recognition by the XB receptors.
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Large-scale agriculture in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil is a major contributor to global food supplies, but its continued productivity is vulnerable to contracting wet seasons and increased exposure to extreme temperatures. Sowing dates serve as an effective adaptation strategy to these climate perturbations. By controlling the weather experienced by crops and influencing the number of successive crops that can be grown in a year, sowing dates can impact both individual crop yields and cropping intensities. Unfortunately, the spatiotemporally resolved crop phenology data necessary to understand sowing dates and their relationship to crop yield are only available over limited years and regions. To fill this data gap, we produce a 500 m rainfed soy (Glycine max) sowing and harvest date dataset for Mato Grosso from 2004 to 2014 using a novel time series analysis method for Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery, adapted for implementation in Google Earth Engine (GEE). Our estimates reveal that soy sowing and harvest dates varied widely (about 2 months) from field to field, confirming the need for spatially resolved crop timing information. An interannual trend toward earlier sowing dates occurred independently of variations in wet season onset, and may be attributed to an improvement in logistic or economic constraints that previously hampered early sowing. As anticipated, double cropped fields in which two crops are grown in succession are planted earlier than single cropped fields. This difference shrank, however, as sowing of single cropped fields occurred closer to the wet season onset in more recent years. The analysis offers insights about sowing behavior in response to historical climate variations which could be extended to understand sowing response under climate change in Mato Grosso.
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âPlants are characterized by the iso/anisohydry continuum depending on how they regulate leaf water potential (ΨL ). However, how iso/anisohydry changes over time in response to year-to-year variations in environmental dryness and how such responses vary across different regions remains poorly characterized. âWe investigated how dryness, represented by aridity index, affects the interannual variability of ecosystem iso/anisohydry at the regional scale, estimated using satellite microwave vegetation optical depth (VOD) observations. This ecosystem-level analysis was further complemented with published field observations of species-level ΨL . âWe found different behaviors in the directionality and sensitivity of isohydricity (σ) with respect to the interannual variation of dryness in different ecosystems. These behaviors can largely be differentiated by the average dryness of the ecosystem itself: in mesic ecosystems, σ decreases in drier years with a higher sensitivity to dryness; in xeric ecosystems, σ increases in drier years with a lower sensitivity to dryness. These results were supported by the species-level synthesis. âOur study suggests that how plants adjust their water use across years - as revealed by their interannual variability in isohydricity - depends on the dryness of plants' living environment. This finding advances our understanding of plant responses to drought at regional scales.
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Secas , Ecossistema , Folhas de Planta , Plantas , ÁguaRESUMO
Drought extent and severity have increased and are predicted to continue to increase in many parts of the world. Understanding tree vulnerability to drought at both individual and species levels is key to ongoing forest management and preparation for future transitions in community composition. The influence of subsurface hydrologic processes is particularly important in water-limited ecosystems, and is an under-studied aspect of tree drought vulnerability. With California's 2013-2016 extraordinary drought as a natural experiment, we studied four co-occurring woodland tree species, blue oak (Quercus douglasii), valley oak (Quercus lobata), gray pine (Pinus sabiniana), and California juniper (Juniperus californica), examining drought vulnerability as a function of climate, lithology and hydrology using regional aerial dieback surveys and site-scale field surveys. We found that in addition to climatic drought severity (i.e., rainfall), subsurface processes explained variation in drought vulnerability within and across species at both scales. Regionally for blue oak, severity of dieback was related to the bedrock lithology, with higher mortality on igneous and metamorphic substrates, and to regional reductions in groundwater. At the site scale, access to deep subsurface water, evidenced by stem water stable isotope composition, was related to canopy condition across all species. Along hillslope gradients, channel locations supported similar environments in terms of water stress across a wide climatic gradient, indicating that subsurface hydrology mediates species' experience of drought, and that areas associated with persistent access to subsurface hydrologic resources may provide important refugia at species' xeric range edges. Despite this persistent overall influence of the subsurface environment, individual species showed markedly different response patterns. We argue that hydrologic niche segregation can be a useful lens through which to interpret these differences in vulnerability to climatic drought and climate change.
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Secas , Árvores , Ecossistema , Hidrologia , Tempo (Meteorologia)RESUMO
Vulnerability to embolism varies between con-generic species distributed along aridity gradients, yet little is known about intraspecific variation and its drivers. Even less is known about intraspecific variation in tissues other than stems, despite results suggesting that roots, stems and leaves can differ in vulnerability. We hypothesized that intraspecific variation in vulnerability in leaves and stems is adaptive and driven by aridity. We quantified leaf and stem vulnerability of Quercus douglasii using the optical technique. To assess contributions of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity to within-species variation, we quantified the vulnerability of individuals growing in a common garden, but originating from populations along an aridity gradient, as well as individuals from the same wild populations. Intraspecific variation in water potential at which 50% of total embolism in a tissue is observed (P50 ) was explained mostly by differences between individuals (>66% of total variance) and tissues (16%). There was little between-population variation in leaf/stem P50 in the garden, which was not related to site of origin aridity. Unexpectedly, we observed a positive relationship between wild individual stem P50 and aridity. Although there is no local adaptation and only minor phenotypic plasticity in leaf/stem vulnerability in Q. douglasii, high levels of potentially heritable variation within populations or strong environmental selection could contribute to adaptive responses under future climate change.
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Adaptação Fisiológica/fisiologia , Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Caules de Planta/fisiologia , Quercus/fisiologia , Xilema/fisiologia , Análise de Variância , California , Clima , Geografia , Especificidade da EspécieRESUMO
Despite the appeal of the iso/anisohydric framework for classifying plant drought responses, recent studies have shown that such classifications can be strongly affected by a plant's environment. Here, we present measured in situ drought responses to demonstrate that apparent isohydricity can be conflated with environmental conditions that vary over space and time. In particular, we (a) use data from an oak species (Quercus douglasii) during the 2012-2015 extreme drought in California to demonstrate how temporal and spatial variability in the environment can influence plant water potential dynamics, masking the role of traits; (b) explain how these environmental variations might arise from climatic, topographic, and edaphic variability; (c) illustrate, through a "common garden" thought experiment, how existing trait-based or response-based isohydricity metrics can be confounded by these environmental variations, leading to Type-1 (false positive) and Type-2 (false negative) errors; and (d) advocate for the use of model-based approaches for formulating alternate classification schemes. Building on recent insights from greenhouse and vineyard studies, we offer additional evidence across multiple field sites to demonstrate the importance of spatial and temporal drivers of plants' apparent isohydricity. This evidence challenges the use of isohydricity indices, per se, to characterize plant water relations at the global scale.
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Meio Ambiente , Quercus/fisiologia , Estresse Fisiológico , California , Clima , Desidratação , Secas , Quercus/metabolismo , Estresse Fisiológico/fisiologia , Água/metabolismoRESUMO
RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Traditional risk estimates for atherosclerotic vascular disease (ASVD) and death may not perform optimally in the setting of chronic kidney disease (CKD). We sought to determine whether the addition of measures of inflammation and kidney function to traditional estimation tools improves prediction of these events in a diverse cohort of patients with CKD. STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 2,399 Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study participants without a history of cardiovascular disease at study entry. PREDICTORS: Baseline plasma levels of biomarkers of inflammation (interleukin 1ß [IL-1ß], IL-1 receptor antagonist, IL-6, tumor necrosis factor α [TNF-α], transforming growth factor ß, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, and serum albumin), measures of kidney function (estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] and albuminuria), and the Pooled Cohort Equation probability (PCEP) estimate. OUTCOMES: Composite of ASVD events (incident myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and stroke) and death. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for PCEP estimates, albuminuria, and eGFR. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.3 years, 86, 61, 48, and 323 participants experienced myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stroke, or death, respectively. The 1-decile greater levels of IL-6 (adjusted HR [aHR], 1.12; 95% CI, 1.08-1.16; P<0.001), TNF-α (aHR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05-1.13; P<0.001), fibrinogen (aHR, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.03-1.11; P<0.001), and serum albumin (aHR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.93-0.99; P<0.002) were independently associated with the composite ASVD-death outcome. A composite inflammation score (CIS) incorporating these 4 biomarkers was associated with a graded increase in risk for the composite outcome. The incidence of ASVD-death increased across the quintiles of risk derived from PCEP, kidney function, and CIS. The addition of eGFR, albuminuria, and CIS to PCEP improved (P=0.003) the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the composite outcome from 0.68 (95% CI, 0.66-0.71) to 0.73 (95% CI, 0.71-0.76). LIMITATIONS: Data for cardiovascular death were not available. CONCLUSIONS: Biomarkers of inflammation and measures of kidney function are independently associated with incident ASVD events and death in patients with CKD. Traditional cardiovascular risk estimates could be improved by adding markers of inflammation and measures of kidney function.
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Aterosclerose/etiologia , Inflamação/etiologia , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/complicações , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/fisiopatologia , Adulto , Idoso , Biomarcadores/sangue , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Testes de Função Renal , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/sangue , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/mortalidade , Adulto JovemRESUMO
Many recent studies on drought-induced vegetation mortality have explored how plant functional traits, and classifications of such traits along axes of, for example, isohydry-anisohydry, might contribute to predicting drought survival and recovery. As these studies proliferate, the consistency and predictive value of such classifications need to be carefully examined. Here, we outline the basis for a systematic classification of plant drought responses that accounts for both environmental conditions and functional traits. We use non-dimensional analysis to integrate plant traits and metrics of environmental variation into groups that can be associated with alternative drought stress pathways (hydraulic failure and carbon limitation), and demonstrate that these groupings predict physiological drought outcomes using both synthetic and measured data. In doing so, we aim to untangle some confounding effects of environment and trait variations that undermine current classification schemes, advocate for more careful treatment of the environmental context within which plants experience and respond to drought, and outline a pathway towards a general classification of drought vulnerability.
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Carbono , Secas , ÁguaRESUMO
Although recent findings suggest that xylem embolism represents a significant, drought-induced damaging process in land plants, substantial debate surrounds the capacity of long-vesseled, ring-porous species to resist embolism. We investigated whether recent methodological developments could help resolve this controversy within Quercus, a long-vesseled, ring-porous temperate angiosperm genus, and shed further light on the importance of xylem vulnerability to embolism as an indicator of drought tolerance. We used the optical technique to quantify leaf and stem xylem vulnerability to embolism of eight Quercus species from the Mediterranean-type climate region of California to examine absolute measures of resistance to embolism as well as any potential hydraulic segmentation between tissue types. We demonstrated that our optical assessment reflected flow impairment for a subset of our sample species by quantifying changes in leaf hydraulic conductance in dehydrating branches. Air-entry water potential varied 2-fold in leaves, ranging from -1.7 ± 0.25 MPa to -3.74 ± 0.23 MPa, and 4-fold in stems, ranging from -1.17 ± 0.04 MPa to -4.91 ± 0.3 MPa. Embolism occurred earlier in leaves than in stems in only one out of eight sample species, and plants always lost turgor before experiencing stem embolism. Our results show that long-vesseled North American Quercus species are more resistant to embolism than previously thought and support the hypothesis that avoiding stem embolism is a critical component of drought tolerance in woody trees. Accurately quantifying xylem vulnerability to embolism is essential for understanding species distributions along aridity gradients and predicting plant mortality during drought.
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Folhas de Planta/fisiologia , Caules de Planta/fisiologia , Quercus/fisiologia , Xilema/fisiologia , California , Especificidade da EspécieRESUMO
Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow.
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Mudança Climática , Ecossistema , Refúgio de Vida Selvagem , California , Clima , Hidrologia , PlantasRESUMO
Studies of the hydroclimate at regional scales rely on spatial rainfall data products, derived from remotely-sensed (RS) and in-situ (IS, rain gauge) observations. Because regional rainfall cannot be directly measured, spatial data products are biased. These biases pose a source of uncertainty in environmental analyses, attributable to the choices made by data-users in selecting a representation of rainfall. We use the rainforest-savanna transition region in Brazil to show differences in the statistics describing rainfall across nine RS and interpolated-IS daily rainfall datasets covering the period of 1998-2013. These differences propagate into estimates of temporal trends in monthly rainfall and descriptive hydroclimate indices. Rainfall trends from different datasets are inconsistent at river basin scales, and the magnitude of index differences is comparable to the estimated bias in global climate model projections. To address this uncertainty, we evaluate the correspondence of different rainfall datasets with streamflow from 89 river basins. We demonstrate that direct empirical comparisons between rainfall and streamflow provide a method for evaluating rainfall dataset performance across multiple areal (basin) units. These results highlight the need for users of rainfall datasets to quantify this "data selection uncertainty" problem, and either justify data use choices, or report the uncertainty in derived results.
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Current models used for predicting vegetation responses to climate change are often guided by the dichotomous needs to resolve either (i) internal plant water status as a proxy for physiological vulnerability or (ii) external water and carbon fluxes and atmospheric feedbacks. Yet, accurate representation of fluxes does not always equate to accurate predictions of vulnerability. We resolve this discrepancy using a hydrodynamic framework that simultaneously tracks plant water status and water uptake. We couple a minimalist plant hydraulics model with a soil moisture model and, for the first time, translate rainfall variability at multiple timescales - with explicit descriptions at daily, seasonal, and interannual timescales - into a physiologically meaningful metric for the risk of hydraulic failure. The model, parameterized with measured traits from chaparral species native to Southern California, shows that apparently similar transpiration patterns throughout the dry season can emerge from disparate plant water potential trajectories, and vice versa. The parsimonious set of parameters that captures the role of many traits across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum is then used to establish differences in species sensitivities to shifts in seasonal rainfall statistics, showing that co-occurring species may diverge in their risk of hydraulic failure despite minimal changes to their seasonal water use. The results suggest potential shifts in species composition in this region due to species-specific changes in hydraulic risk. Our process-based approach offers a quantitative framework for understanding species sensitivity across multiple timescales of rainfall variability and provides a promising avenue toward incorporating interactions of temporal variability and physiological mechanisms into drought response models.
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Mudança Climática , Transpiração Vegetal , California , Estações do Ano , Solo , ÁguaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Given Australia's population ageing and predicted impacts related to health, productivity, equity and enhancing quality of life outcomes for senior Australians, lifelong learning has been identified as a pathway for addressing the risks associated with an ageing population. To date Australian governments have paid little attention to addressing these needs and thus, there is an urgent need for policy development for lifelong learning as a national priority. The purpose of this article is to explore the current lifelong learning context in Australia and to propose a set of factors that are most likely to impact learning in later years. CONCLUSION: Evidence based policy that understands and incorporates learning opportunities for all citizens is required to meet emerging global challenges. Providing appropriate learning opportunities to seniors is one clear pathway for achieving diverse health, social and economic outcomes.
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Envelhecimento/psicologia , Aprendizagem , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Austrália , Prática Clínica Baseada em Evidências , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Satisfação Pessoal , Política Pública , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Voluntários/psicologiaRESUMO
A broad class of soil fungi form the annular patterns known as 'fairy rings' and provide one of the only means to observe spatio-temporal dynamics of otherwise cryptic fungal growth processes in natural environments. We present observations of novel spiral and rotor patterns produced by fairy ring fungi and explain these behaviors mathematically by first showing that a well known model of fairy ring fungal growth and the Gray-Scott reaction-diffusion model are mathematically equivalent. We then use bifurcation analysis and numerical simulations to identify the conditions under which spiral waves and rotors can arise. We demonstrate that the region of dimensionless parameter space supporting these more complex dynamics is adjacent to that which produces the more familiar fairy rings, and identify experimental manipulations to test the transitions between these spatial modes. These same manipulations could also feasibly induce fungal colonies to transition from rotor/spiral formation to a set of richer, as yet unobserved, spatial patterns.
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Basidiomycota/fisiologia , Biomassa , Microbiologia do Solo , Biometria , Simulação por Computador , Modelos BiológicosRESUMO
The liberalization of marijuana policies, including the legalization of medical and recreational marijuana, is sweeping the United States and other countries. Marijuana cultivation can have significant negative collateral effects on the environment that are often unknown or overlooked. Focusing on the state of California, where by some estimates 60%-70% of the marijuana consumed in the United States is grown, we argue that (a) the environmental harm caused by marijuana cultivation merits a direct policy response, (b) current approaches to governing the environmental effects are inadequate, and
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Seed dispersal alters gene flow, reproduction, migration and ultimately spatial organization of dryland ecosystems. Because many seeds in drylands lack adaptations for long-distance dispersal, seed transport by secondary processes such as tumbling in the wind or mobilization in overland flow plays a dominant role in determining where seeds ultimately germinate. Here, recent developments in modeling runoff generation in spatially complex dryland ecosystems are reviewed with the aim of proposing improvements to mechanistic modeling of seed dispersal processes. The objective is to develop a physically-based yet operational framework for determining seed dispersal due to surface runoff, a process that has gained recent experimental attention. A Buoyant OBject Coupled Eulerian - Lagrangian Closure model (BOB-CELC) is proposed to represent seed movement in shallow surface flows. The BOB-CELC is then employed to investigate the sensitivity of seed transport to landscape and storm properties and to the spatial configuration of vegetation patches interspersed within bare earth. The potential to simplify seed transport outcomes by considering the limiting behavior of multiple runoff events is briefly considered, as is the potential for developing highly mechanistic, spatially explicit models that link seed transport, vegetation structure and water movement across multiple generations of dryland plants.
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Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction.