COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy in Zambia: a glimpse at the possible challenges ahead for COVID-19 vaccination rollout in sub-Saharan Africa.

With unprecedented speed, multiple vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are available 1 year after the COVID-19 pandemic was first identified. As we push to achieve global control through these new vaccines, old challenges present themselves, including cold-chain storage, the logistics of mass vaccination, and vaccine hesitancy. Understanding how much hesitancy toward COVID-19 vaccines might occur and what factors may be driving these concerns can improve the ability of public health workers and communicators to maximize vaccine uptake. We nested a survey within a measles-rubella mass vaccination campaign in Zambia in November 2020 and asked about sentiments and beliefs toward COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Among parents bringing their children to receive a measles-rubella vaccine, we found high acceptability of COVID-19 vaccination of their children, but substantial uncertainty and hesitancy about receiving the vaccine themselves. COVID-19 vaccination hesitancy was correlated with beliefs around COVID-19 severity and risk, as well as vaccine safety and effectiveness.

mHAT app for automated malaria rapid test result analysis and aggregation: a pilot study.

BACKGROUND: There are a variety of approaches being used for malaria surveillance. While active and reactive case detection have been successful in localized areas of low transmission, concerns over scalability and sustainability keep the approaches from being widely accepted. Mobile health interventions are poised to address these shortcomings by automating and standardizing portions of the surveillance process. In this study, common challenges associated with current data aggregation methods have been quantified, and a web-based mobile phone application is presented to reduce the burden of reporting rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results in low-resource settings. METHODS: De-identified completed RDTs were collected at 14 rural health clinics as part of a malaria epidemiology study at Macha Research Trust, Macha, Zambia. Tests were imaged using the mHAT web application. Signal intensity was measured and a binary result was provided. App performance was validated by: (1) comparative limits of detection, investigated against currently used laboratory lateral flow assay readers; and, (2) receiver operating characteristic analysis comparing the application against visual inspection of RDTs by an expert. Secondary investigations included analysis of time-to-aggregation and data consistency within the existing surveillance structures established by Macha Research Trust. RESULTS: When compared to visual analysis, the mHAT app performed with 91.9% sensitivity (CI 78.7, 97.2) and specificity was 91.4% (CI 77.6, 97.0) regardless of device operating system. Additionally, an analysis of surveillance data from January 2017 through mid-February 2019 showed that while the majority of the data packets from satellite clinics contained correct data, 36% of data points required correction by verification teams. Between November 2018 and mid-February 2019, it was also found that 44.8% of data was received after the expected submission date, although most (65.1%) reports were received within 2 days. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the mHAT mobile app was observed to be sensitive and specific when compared to both currently available benchtop lateral flow readers and visual inspection. The additional benefit of automating and standardizing LFA data collection and aggregation poses a vital improvement for low-resource health facilities and could increase the accuracy and speed of data reporting in surveillance campaigns.

The Pharmacogenetics of Efavirenz Metabolism in Children: The Potential Genetic and Medical Contributions to Child Development in the Context of Long-Term ARV Treatment.

Efavirenz (EFV) is a well-known, effective anti-retroviral drug long used in first-line treatment for children and adults with HIV and HIV/AIDS. Due to its narrow window of effective concentrations, between 1 and 4 µg/mL, and neurological side effects at supratherapeutic levels, several investigations into the pharmacokinetics of the drug and its genetic underpinnings have been carried out, primarily with adult samples. A number of studies, however, have examined the genetic influences on the metabolism of EFV in children. Their primary goal has been to shed light on issues of appropriate pediatric dosing, as well as the manifestation of neurotoxic effects of EFV in some children. Although EFV is currently being phased out of use for the treatment of both adults and children, we share this line of research to highlight an important aspect of medical treatment that is relevant to understanding the development of children diagnosed with HIV.

Cost-effectiveness of PrEP in HIV/AIDS control in Zambia: a stochastic league approach.

BACKGROUND: Earlier antiretroviral therapy initiation and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prevent HIV, although at a substantial cost. We use mathematical modeling to compare the cost-effectiveness and economic affordability of antiretroviral-based prevention strategies in rural Macha, Zambia. METHODS: We compare the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness over 40 years of a baseline scenario (treatment initiation at CD4 <350 cells/µL) with treatment initiation at CD4 <500 cells per microliter, and PrEP (prioritized to the most sexually active, or nonprioritized). A strategy is cost effective when the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is <$3480 (<3 times Zambian per capita GDP). Stochastic league tables then predict the optimal intervention per budget level. RESULTS: All scenarios will reduce the prevalence from 6.2% (interquartile range, 5.8%-6.6%) in 2014 to about 1% after 40 years. Compared with the baseline, 16% of infections will be averted with prioritized PrEP plus treatment at CD4 <350, 34% with treatment at CD4 <500, and 59% with nonprioritized PrEP plus treatment at CD4 <500. Only treating at CD4 <500 is cost effective: ICER of $62 ($46-$75). Nonprioritized PrEP plus treating at CD4 <500 is borderline cost effective: ICER of $5861 ($3959-$8483). Initiating treatment at CD4 <500 requires a budget increase from $20 million to $25 million over 40 years, with a 96.7% probability of being the optimal intervention. PrEP should only be considered when the budget exceeds $180 million. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment initiation at CD4 <500 is a cost-effective HIV prevention approach that will require a modest increase in budget. Although adding PrEP will avert more infections, it is not economically feasible, as it requires a 10-fold increase in budget.

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV-1 infections in rural Zambia: a modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) with tenofovir and emtricitabine effectively prevents new HIV infections. The optimal scenario for implementing PrEP where most infections are averted at the lowest cost is unknown. We determined the impact of different PrEP strategies on averting new infections, prevalence, drug resistance and cost-effectiveness in Macha, a rural setting in Zambia. METHODS: A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission was constructed using data from the Macha epidemic (antenatal prevalence 7.7%). Antiretroviral therapy is started at CD4<350 cells/mm(3). We compared the number of infections averted, cost-effectiveness, and potential emergence of drug resistance of two ends of the prioritization spectrum: prioritizing PrEP to half of the most sexually active individuals (5-15% of the total population), versus randomly putting 40-60% of the total population on PrEP. RESULTS: Prioritizing PrEP to individuals with the highest sexual activity resulted in more infections averted than a non-prioritized strategy over ten years (31% and 23% reduction in new infections respectively), and also a lower HIV prevalence after ten years (5.7%, 6.4% respectively). The strategy was very cost-effective at $323 per quality adjusted life year gained and appeared to be both less costly and more effective than the non-prioritized strategy. The prevalence of drug resistance due to PrEP was as high as 11.6% when all assumed breakthrough infections resulted in resistance, and as low as 1.3% when 10% of breakthrough infections resulted in resistance in both our prioritized and non-prioritized scenarios. CONCLUSIONS: Even in settings with low test rates and treatment retention, the use of PrEP can still be a useful strategy in averting infections. Our model has shown that PrEP is a cost-effective strategy for reducing HIV incidence, even when adherence is suboptimal and prioritization is imperfect.

Designing a sustainable strategy for malaria control?

Malaria in the 21st century is showing signs of declining over much of its distribution, including several countries in Africa where previously this was not thought to be feasible. Yet for the most part the strategies to attack the infection are similar to those of the 1950s. Three major Journals have recently drawn attention to the situation, stressing the importance of research, describing the successes and defining semantics related to control. But there is a need to stress the importance of local sustainability, and consider somewhat urgently how individual endemic countries can plan and implement the programmes that are currently financed, for the most part, by donor institutions. On an immediate basis research should be more focused on a data driven approach to control. This will entail new thinking on the role of local infrastructure and in training of local scientists in local universities in epidemiology and field malariology so that expanded control programmes can become operational. Donor agencies should encourage and facilitate development of career opportunities for such personnel so that local expertise is available to contribute appropriately.