A machine learning framework supporting prospective clinical decisions applied to risk prediction in oncology.

We present a general framework for developing a machine learning (ML) tool that supports clinician assessment of patient risk using electronic health record-derived real-world data and apply the framework to a quality improvement use case in an oncology setting to identify patients at risk for a near-term (60 day) emergency department (ED) visit who could potentially be eligible for a home-based acute care program. Framework steps include defining clinical quality improvement goals, model development and validation, bias assessment, retrospective and prospective validation, and deployment in clinical workflow. In the retrospective analysis for the use case, 8% of patient encounters were associated with a high risk (pre-defined as predicted probability ≥20%) for a near-term ED visit by the patient. Positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for future ED events was 26% and 91%, respectively. Odds ratio (OR) of ED visit (high- vs. low-risk) was 3.5 (95% CI: 3.4-3.5). The model appeared to be calibrated across racial, gender, and ethnic groups. In the prospective analysis, 10% of patients were classified as high risk, 76% of whom were confirmed by clinicians as eligible for home-based acute care. PPV and NPV for future ED events was 22% and 95%, respectively. OR of ED visit (high- vs. low-risk) was 5.4 (95% CI: 2.6-11.0). The proposed framework for an ML-based tool that supports clinician assessment of patient risk is a stepwise development approach; we successfully applied the framework to an ED visit risk prediction use case.

Evaluation of Oncology Hospital at Home: Unplanned Health Care Utilization and Costs in the Huntsman at Home Real-World Trial.

PURPOSE: Patients with cancer experience high rates of morbidity and unplanned health care utilization and may benefit from new models of care. We evaluated an adult oncology hospital at home program's rate of unplanned hospitalizations and health care costs and secondarily, emergency department (ED) use, length of hospital stays, and intensive care unit (ICU) admissions during the 30 days after enrollment. METHODS: We conducted a prospective, nonrandomized, real-world cohort comparison of 367 hospitalized patients with cancer-169 patients consecutively admitted after hospital discharge to Huntsman at Home (HH), a hospital-at-home program, compared with 198 usual care patients concurrently identified at hospital discharge. All patients met clinical criteria for HH admission, but those in usual care lived outside the HH service area. Primary outcomes were the number of unplanned hospitalizations and costs during the 30 days after enrollment. Secondary outcomes included length of hospital stays, ICU admissions, and ED visits during the 30 days after enrollment. RESULTS: Groups were comparable except that more women received HH care. In propensity-weighted analyses, the odds of unplanned hospitalizations was reduced in the HH group by 55% (odds ratio, 0.45, 95% CI, 0.29 to 0.70; P < .001) and health care costs were 47% lower (mean cost ratio, 0.53; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.72; P < .001) over the 30-day period. Secondary outcomes also favored HH. Total hospital stay days were reduced by 1.1 days (P = .004) and ED visits were reduced by 45% (odds ratio, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.33 to 0.92; P = .022). There was no evidence of a difference in ICU admissions (P = .972). CONCLUSION: This oncology hospital at home program shows initial promise as a model for oncology care that may lower unplanned health care utilization and health care costs.

Redefining the role of the nurse academic in practice: A pilot study.

Worldwide, health services are interested in supporting the speedy adoption of research findings into practice. To promote the translation of research into practice, a university in the South of England along with a partner NHS Trust piloted a new role - Translation Fellow (TF). This article describes and analyses the experience of implementing this role. It outlines the successes achieved as a result of this partnership between a university and a healthcare organisation as well as describing the challenges involved in establishing such a role. The successes included submitting a joint abstract to a conference; collaboratively developing articles for publication; organizing a visit overseas to compare similar services; co-designing a database to assist in collecting data for service planning and research, and setting up a 'one click access' web space populated with evidence informed material to support the work of the clinical staff. The pilot acted as a proof of concept in which the TF role demonstrated its potential. Additional roles are already being established in other services in the locality and the role merits wider discussion and testing nationally.

The future of community nursing: Hospital in the Home.

With an increasing ageing population who often have multiple long-term conditions, there is a growing need to provide an alternative type of care to the traditional hospital-based model. 'Hospital in the Home' is a model that provides integrated care for patients in their home. The @home service was established in 2013 by Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust. The service provides health care in patients' home, supporting early discharge from hospital as well as preventing avoidable admissions and readmissions saving valuable hospital bed days and reducing length of stay. This article describes the service available with the use of a case study of a 78-year-old lady who was referred by the London Ambulance Service with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This case study highlights the ability to assess, treat and manage an acutely unwell patient with newly diagnosed heart failure in the community without the need for hospitalisation. This type of integrated care model with a multidisciplinary team is a feasible alternative to the traditional models of care in both the acute and community settings.

The Guy's and St Thomas's NHS Foundation Trust @home service: an overview of a new service.

Hospital in the home is a relatively new concept within the UK healthcare system. The Guy's and St Thomas's NHS Foundation Trust (GSTT) @home service 'Bringing hospital care to your home' was commissioned by Lambeth and Southwark CCG in 2014 to provide acute care in the patients' place of residence by facilitating rapid discharge from hospital. The service is designed for 260-280 referrals each month from local hospitals, London Ambulance Service, GPs, district nurses and palliative care services. The GSTT@home provides intensive care for a short episode through multidisciplinary team work with the aim of returning the patient to their prior health status following an acute episode of ill health. The main criteria for referrals are adults, living within Lambeth or Southwark with an acute onset of illness often with acute exacerbations of chronic conditions. Care is delivered using 25 clinical pathways using integrated care teams, including those for respiratory disease, heart failure and palliative care services. Recently, the service extended to include overnight palliative care. As care shifts from hospital to the community, it is envisaged that these types of programmes will become an essential component of care provision. This paper describes the service and presents initial service evaluation data.