Cost-effectiveness of proactive health support-telephone-based self-management support compared with standard care for persons at risk of hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: A small share of patients account for a large proportion of costs to the healthcare system in Denmark as in many Western countries. A telephone-based self-management support, proactive health support (PaHS), was suggested for prevention of hospitalisations for persons at risk of hospital admission. These persons have chronic diseases, unplanned hospitalisations and age ≥ 65 years. However, evidence is limited on whether this type of intervention is cost-effective. AIM: The aim of this study was to assess the incremental cost-utility ratio (ICER) of PaHS, compared with standard care. METHODS: The economic evaluation was nested within a randomised controlled trial, and was based on a health system perspective, with follow-up and time horizon of 12 months. We measured incremental costs per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. Total average costs per patient included PaHS programme costs, and costs in hospitals, primary care and municipalities. We analysed differences by generalised linear models with Gamma distribution for costs and mixed models for QALY. RESULTS: We analysed data on 6,139 patients, where 3,041 received PaHS and 3,098 received usual care. We found no difference in healthcare costs, and programme costs were on average €1,762 per patient, providing incremental costs of €2,075. Incremental effects on QALY were 0.007, resulting in an ICER of €296,389 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence of PaHS being cost-effective in this study, but the results will be used to identify new ways to organise similar interventions and identify patients with the objective to reduce health system costs per patient.

Potassium - a scoping review for Nordic Nutrition Recommendations 2023.

Potassium (K) is an essential mineral that is necessary for normal cell and membrane function and for maintaining both fluid balance and acid-base balance. Potassium is furthermore very important for normal excitation, for example in nerves and muscle. It is widely available in several food products, with the most important dietary sources being potatoes, fruits, vegetables, cereal and cereal products, milk and dairy products, and meat and meat products. Potassium deficiency and toxicity is rare in healthy people, but dietary potassium is associated with other health outcomes. Results from observational studies have shown that a potassium intake above 3500 mg/day (90 mmol/day) is associated with a reduced risk of stroke. Similarly, intervention studies provide evidence that this level of potassium intake has a beneficial effect on blood pressure, particularly among persons with hypertension and in persons with a high sodium intake (>4 g/day, equivalent to >10 g salt/day).

Action plans in telephone-based self-management support among patients at risk of hospitalization - A process evaluation of the Danish RCT Proactive Health Support (PaHS).

OBJECTIVE: Self-management support (SMS) aims to improve management of chronic diseases. While SMS core components are frequently documented, person-centered action plans and goal achievement is unknown. The aim of this study was to explore predictors of goal achievement in action plans during the Proactive Health Support study (PaHS). METHOD: PaHS is a Danish randomized controlled trial of telephone-based SMS for patients at risk of hospitalization. The present study includes the trial intervention group with completed action plans as part of the trial process evaluation. The association between baseline characteristics of action plans and subsequent goal achievement were analyzed with logistic regression. RESULTS: In this study, 1400 participants with a total of 2363 action plans were included. The results show higher goal achievement when the patients' goals were related to management of disease and treatment compared to health behavior. Furthermore, a stronger feeling of empowerment was associated with subsequent goal achievement. CONCLUSION: Goal achievement in PaHS was generally high. The probability of goal achievement was highest with goals related to disease management, everyday-life management, and treatment. Higher baseline empowerment was associated with increased goal achievement. PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS: SMS should focus on treatment management and patients with lower levels of active engagement and motivation.

Nurses' perspectives on challenges and facilitators when implementing a self-management support intervention as an everyday healthcare practice: A qualitative study.

AIM: To explore registered nurses' perspectives on challenges and facilitators to implementing a telephone-based self-management support (SMS) intervention (Proactive Health Support) as an everyday healthcare practice, during the early stages of implementation. DESIGN: Data were collected using a qualitative research design involving focus-group interviews and participant observations. METHODS: We conducted participant observation following nine nurses and four focus group interviews with 14 nurses. Data were analysed using thematic analyses. RESULTS: Proactive Health Support was implemented in units organized independently of the existing organizational units within healthcare services. This independent organization, along with the intervention's generic (non-disease specific) design, empowered nurses to become autonomous practitioners capable of prioritizing the operationalization of SMS as an everyday healthcare practice. However, unlearning already embedded medical practices and establishing new nursing roles necessary to accommodate the intervention in practice was experienced a challenge. Education and supervision were identified as valuable tools for successful implementation. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the significance of organizational context and autonomy in successful SMS implementation. Balancing external factors like organizational context, priority and time is vital, but navigating the internal shift in professional practice is equally crucial. Role transition processes can constitute challenges demanding accommodation. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PROFESSION: From a nursing perspective, this study highlights that practising SMS requires substantial training and education. Generic SMS interventions can introduce higher levels of contingency due to their versatile nature. Thus, equipping nurses with competencies that enable them to navigate this unpredictability flexibly is crucial. IMPACT: Policymakers and administrators should allocate resources and support implementation processes in ways that accommodate both internal and external conditions to facilitate nurses in delivering effective SMS. REPORTING METHOD: This study adheres to the SRQR guideline. PATIENT OR PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: No patient or public contribution.

Diet's influence on climate and health.

Climate, diet and health are closely connected. The food system is one of the largest contributors to climate change, making it crucial to address dietary choices. This review summarises the current dietary state in Denmark with emphasis on climate and health. Adhering to Danish dietary guidelines or the EAT-Lancet diet not only reduces carbon footprint significantly, but also minimises the burden of disease and pressure on the public health sector. To achieve public health improvements and meet climate targets, it is essential to implement these diet guidelines through comprehensive structural and political measures.

Who benefits from self-management support? Results from a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Self-management support models adapted to accommodate the needs of each patient are complex interventions that should be evaluated for intervention mechanisms. In a national randomized controlled trial (RCT), we evaluated the efficacy of telephone-based self-management support that demonstrated improved health-related quality of life (HRQoL), no reduction in hospital admissions, and an unexpected increase in primary healthcare services. Objective: The objective of this study is to identify RCT impact mechanisms and explore which participants could benefit the most from the PaHS intervention. Methods: This study evaluates intervention mechanisms through interaction analyses of predefined intervention moderators (sex, age, education, chronic disease, risk of hospital admissions, and coping) and post-hoc intervention mediators (contacts in primary care and anxiety medication). The one co-primary outcome HRQoL was assessed with SF26v2 and analyzed with generalized linear mixed models and the other co-primary hospital admissions was analyzed with poisson regression. Results: PaHS interacted with diabetes, multimorbidity, coping, and anxiety medication on the outcome hospital admissions. PaHS led to a significant reduction in hospital admissions in participants with diabetes or multimorbidity and an increase in hospital admissions in participants with higher baseline coping and participants using anxiety medication. The interaction analyses revealed significant intervention mediation in the outcome HRQoL by sex and diabetes. Conclusions: Participants with diabetes, multimorbidity, and women could benefit the most from telephone-based self-management support, but the intervention involves the risk of over-treatment.

Involving supermarkets in health promotion interventions in the Danish Project SoL. A practice-oriented qualitative study on the engagement of supermarket staff and managers.

BACKGROUND: Supermarkets have been suggested as relevant settings for environmental and educational initiatives encouraging healthier shopping and eating decisions, but in the literature, limited attention has been paid to the context, perspectives, and everyday practices of supermarket staff. The aim of this study was to examine the engagement of supermarket staff in a health promotion project from a practice-oriented perspective. METHODS: The study was based on qualitative data collected in the supermarket setting of Project SoL; a community-based health promotion project in Denmark. We conducted 26 in-depth interviews with store managers and other key staff members in seven participating supermarkets. In addition, we collected data on planning, implementation, and perceptions of supermarket staff of in-store interventions and other project-related activities. These field data included short telephone interviews, observational notes, photos, and audiotapes of meetings. Data were analysed from the perspective of practice theory. RESULTS: Although supermarket staff found community-based health promotion meaningful to engage in, the study observed that their engagement was challenged by a business mindset, practical routines and structural requirements favouring sales promotion over health promotion. Nevertheless, there were also examples of how health promotion activities and ways of thinking were successfully incorporated in everyday staff practices during and after Project SoL. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings point to both potentials and challenges for using supermarkets as settings for health promotion. The voluntary engagement of supermarket staff in community-based health projects cannot stand alone but should be supplemented by more long-lasting strategies and policies regulating this and other food environments. Context-sensitive and practice-oriented analyses in local food environments could inform such strategies and policies to make sure they target unwanted elements and practices and not just individual behavior.

Our Healthy Community Conceptual Framework and Intervention Model for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention in Municipalities.

This paper introduces the conceptual framework and intervention model of Our Healthy Community (OHC), a new, coordinated, and integrated approach towards health promotion and disease prevention in municipalities. The model is inspired by systems-based approaches and employs a supersetting approach for engaging stakeholders across sectors in the development and implementation of interventions to increase health and well-being among citizens. The conceptual model includes a combination of a bottom-up approach emphasizing involvement of citizens and other community-based stakeholders combined with a top-down approach emphasizing political, legal, administrative, and technical support from a variety of councils and departments in local municipality government. The model operates bidirectionally: (1) by pushing political and administrative processes to promote the establishment of conducive structural environments for making healthy choices, and (2) by involving citizens and professional stakeholders at all levels in co-creating processes of shaping their own community and municipality. An operational intervention model was further developed by the OHC project while working with the OHC in two Danish municipalities. The operational intervention model of OHC comprises three main phases and key actions to be implemented at the levels of local government and community: (1) Local government: Situational analysis, dialogue, and political priorities; (2) Community: Thematic co-creation among professional stakeholders; and (3) Target area: Intervention development and implementation. The OHC model will provide municipalities with new tools to improve the citizens' health and well-being with available resources. Health promotion and disease prevention interventions are developed, implemented, and anchored in the local community by citizens and local stakeholders at municipal and local community levels using collaboration and partnerships as leverage points.

An updated validation of the Dietary Quality Score: associations with risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases in a Danish population.

PURPOSE: This study assessed the validity of the Dietary Quality Score (DQS) and investigated the association between the DQS and risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases. METHODS: The DQS was calculated based on an updated 23-item FFQ and validated against a 376-item FFQ. A sub-sample of 450 men and women aged 18-73 years, from the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health-Next generations (DCH-NG) cohort, completed the updated 23-item FFQ. We investigated the associations between the DQS and risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases (lipids, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), blood pressure (BP), waist circumference (WC), visceral and total fat mass) using linear regression models. RESULTS: A high DQS, i.e. healthy dietary habits, was significantly associated with a higher intake of fruits, vegetables, fish, fibre, several vitamins and minerals and a lower intake of saturated fat. Moreover, a high DQS was significantly associated with lower levels of LDL cholesterol (P = 0.0133), Hs-CRP (P = 0.0449), WC (P = 0.0161), visceral fat (P = 0.0003), total fat mass (P = 0.0106) and total fat percentage (P = 0.0030) and significantly associated with a higher HDL cholesterol (P = 0.0379) level, when adjusting for education, smoking habits and physical activity. There was no association with total cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA1c, BP and BMI. CONCLUSION: The DQS, based on the updated 23-item FFQ, is a valid tool to classify individuals into groups with low, average and high dietary quality in the Danish population. Furthermore, a high DQS is significantly associated with lower levels of several risk factors for cardiometabolic diseases.

A Community-Based, Participatory, Multi-Component Intervention Increased Sales of Healthy Foods in Local Supermarkets-The Health and Local Community Project (SoL).

Project SoL was a 19-month (September 2012 to April 2014) community-based multi-component intervention based on the supersetting approach that was designed to promote healthier eating and physical activity among children and their families. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of a multi-component intervention (level 1) and a mass media intervention alone (level 2) compared to a control area (level 3) on food sales. The design was quasi-experimental. Weekly sales data for all Coop supermarkets in the intervention and control areas were analysed via longitudinal linear mixed-effects analyses. Significant increases in the sales of fish (total) (29%; p = 0.003), canned fish (31%; p = 0.025) and oatmeal (31%; p = 0.003) were found for the level 1 intervention area compared to the control area. In the level 2 intervention area, significant increases in the sales of vegetables (total) (17%; p = 0.038), fresh vegetables (20%; p = 0.01), dried fruit (51%; p = 0.022), oatmeal (19%; p = 0.008) and wholegrain pasta (58%; p = 0.0007) were found compared to the control area. The sales of canned fish increased by 30% in the level 1 area compared to the level 2 area (p = 0.025). This study demonstrated significant increases in the sales of healthy foods, both in the areas with multi-component and mass media interventions alone compared to the control area.

Three-year follow-up of a multi-component community-driven health promotion intervention in Denmark.

The article presents a follow-up study of a multi-component community-driven health promotion intervention in Denmark. The study examines the perceptions and actions of professional stakeholders 3 years after completion of a 19 months intervention period addressing healthy living, well-being and social engagement among families with young children living in three rural communities on the Danish island of Bornholm. The intervention was implemented within the framework of Project Health and Local Community, also referred to as Project SoL. Qualitative in-depth interviews were conducted with diverse professional stakeholders of the project. They represented local government, public institutions, private enterprises, civil society organizations and local mass media. The interviews addressed the extent to which the project had sustained its influence on professional stakeholders' perceptions and actions following project completion. Efforts were made to understand if persisting influences were value-based and/or manifested as concrete community-driven actions. The study showed that the project had succeeded in sustaining a positive long-term post-intervention influence among informants regarding the values and principles of the project. Despite their sustained motivation and preparedness to continue implementing coordinated community-driven actions this was severely hampered by lack of coordination after project completion. Instead, some of the stakeholders continued developing and implementing actions based on the values and principles of the project within the framework of their own professional networks. The article discusses the structural factors that are required to sustain complex community-driven interventions and the need to reconsider the nature of external support to community development from being project-based to integrated, strategic and long term.

Proactive Health Support: a randomised controlled trial of telephone-based self-management support for persons at risk of hospital admission.

BACKGROUND: Persons with frequent hospital admissions have a disease burden that may exceed their self-management skills. The evidence base of telephone-based interventions to support self-management is poor with mixed results. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of Proactive Health Support (PaHS): telephone-based self-management support for persons with risk of hospitalizations. METHODS: This study is a national randomised controlled trial of PaHS versus usual universal tax-funded healthcare. Participants were persons at risk of emergency hospital admissions. The intervention began with a physical start-up session followed by telephone sessions of self-management support. The two co-primary outcomes were Health-Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) (Mental Health Component Summary Score of SF36v2) analysed with mixed models and hospital admissions analysed with Poisson regression at 6 months. Secondary outcomes were at 3- and 12-month follow-up and disease subgroup analyses. RESULTS: During the study period, 6,402 persons were randomised (3,190 intervention, 3,212 control). HRQoL was significantly improved at 6 months (Est. 1.4992, P = <0.0001) and at 3 and 12 months on all 10 scales. There was no overall effect on hospital admissions at 6 months with an adjusted estimate of 0.0074 (P = 0.8691). Persons with diabetes had significant improvement of HRQoL and reduced hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS: The PaHS intervention improved HRQoL for all participants and reduced hospital admissions for persons with diabetes only.

Validation of retail food outlet data from a Danish government inspection database.

BACKGROUND: Globally, unhealthy diet is one of the leading global risks to health, thus it is central to consider aspects of the food environment that are modifiable and may enable healthy eating. Food retail data can be used to present and facilitate analyses of food environments that in turn may direct strategies towards improving dietary patterns among populations. Though food retail data are available in many countries, their completeness and accuracy differ. METHODS: We applied a systematically name-based procedure combined with a manual procedure on Danish administrative food retailer data (i.e. the Smiley register) to identify, locate and classify food outlets. Food outlets were classified into the most commonly used classifications (i.e. fast food, restaurants, convenience stores, supermarkets, fruit and vegetable stores and miscellaneous) each divided into three commonly used definitions; narrow, moderate and broad. Classifications were based on branch code, name, and/or information on the internal and external appearance of the food outlet. From ground-truthing we validated the information in the register for its sensitivity and positive predictive value. RESULTS: In 361 randomly selected areas of the Capital region of Denmark we identified a total of 1887 food outlets compared with 1861 identified in the register. We obtained a sensitivity of 0.75 and a positive predictive value of 0.76. Across classifications, the positive predictive values varied with highest values for the moderate and broad definitions of fast food, convenience stores and supermarkets (ranging from 0.89 to 0.97). CONCLUSION: Information from the Smiley Register is considered to be representative to the Danish food environment and may be used for future research.

Dietary Effects of Introducing Salt-Reduced Bread with and without Dietary Counselling-A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial.

Successful strategies for policy makers and the food industry are required to reduce population salt intake. A 4-month cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted to evaluate whether the provision of salt-reduced bread with or without dietary counselling affected the dietary intake of selected food groups, energy, macronutrients, sodium, and potassium. Eighty-nine families (n = 309) consisting of minimum one parent and one child were assigned to receive bread gradually reduced in salt content alone (Intervention A), combined with dietary counselling (Intervention B), or bread with regular salt content (control). Food intake was recorded for seven consecutive days at baseline and follow-up. Salt intake was reduced in both Intervention A (-1.0 g salt/10 MJ, p = 0.027) and Intervention B (-1.0 g salt/10 MJ, p = 0.026) compared to the control. Consumption of bread and both total and salt-rich bread fillings remained similar between groups, while 'cheese and cheese products' were reduced in Intervention A (-38%, p = 0.011). Energy intake and macronutrient distribution were not affected in Intervention A, but Intervention B resulted in a higher energy intake (512 kJ, p = 0.019) and a lower energy % (E%) from saturated fat (-1.0 E%, p = 0.031) compared to the control. In conclusion, provision of salt-reduced bread both with and without dietary counselling successfully reduced dietary salt intake without adversely affecting the dietary nutritional quality.

Heart Rehabilitation for All (HeRTA): Protocol for a feasibility study and pilot randomized trial.

INTRODUCTION: Today, 50% of people with cardiac disease do not participate in rehabilitation. The HeRTA-study aims to develop and test a sustainable rehabilitation model supporting vulnerable patients in participating in rehabilitation and long-term physical activity. METHODS: A feasibility study with a non-blinded pilot randomized trial was developed in collaboration with partners and cardiac patients to test a multi-component rehabilitation intervention across hospital, municipality, and civil society. The study runs from January 2020 to December 2024. Eligibility criteria for participants: a) diagnosed with either ischemic heart disease, persistent atrial fibrillation, heart failure, or have had cardiac valve surgery, b) residents in Hvidovre Hospitals uptake area, c) cognitively functional, d) physically able to participate in rehabilitation. Patient recruitment will be located at Hvidovre Hospital, Capital Region of Denmark, data collection at Hvidovre Hospital, Rehabilitation Center Albertslund, the Danish Heart Association, and in two municipalities (Hvidovre and Brøndby). Patients in the control group have access to usual care at the hospital: rehabilitation-needs-assessment, patient education, and physical training. After or instead of hospital rehabilitation, the patient can be referred to municipal rehabilitation with patient education, and a total of 12 weeks of physical training across sectors. Patients in the intervention group will in addition to usual care, have access to an information book about cardiac disease, patient supporters from the Danish Heart Association, Information materials to inform employers about the employees' rehabilitation participation, a rehabilitation goal setting plan, a support café for relatives, and follow-up phone calls from physiotherapists 1 and 3 months after rehabilitation to support physical activities. Patients with vulnerabilities will additionally receive patient education conducted in small groups, pro-active counselling by a cardiac nurse, psychologist, or social worker, paid transportation to rehabilitation, and paid membership in a sports association. Patients are computer block-randomized so patients with vulnerability are distributed evenly in the two study arms by stratifying on a) a cut-off score of ≥ 5 in the Tilburg Frailty Indicator questionnaire and/or b) need of language translator support. A power calculation, based on an estimated 20% difference in participation proportion between groups, 80% power, a type 1 error of 5% (two-tailed), results in 91 participants in each study arm. The primary outcome: rehabilitation participation (attending ≥ two activities: patient education, smoking cessation, dietary counseling, and physical training) and reaching at least 50% attendance. Secondary outcomes: health-related quality of life, coping strategies, level of physical activities, and sustainability regarding participation in active communities after rehabilitation. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05104658). RESULTS: Differences between changes in outcomes between groups will be analyzed according to the intention-to-treat principle. Sensitivity analysis and analysis of the effect of the combined activities will be made. A process evaluation will clarify the implementation of the model, the partnership, and patients' experiences. CONCLUSION: Cross-sectoral collaborations between hospitals, municipalities, and organizations in civil society may lead to sustainable and affordable long-term physical activities for persons with chronic illness. The results can lead to improve cross-sectoral collaborations in other locations and patient groups.

Effectiveness of food environment policies in improving population diets: a review of systematic reviews.

Unhealthy population diets contribute to the burden of non-communicable diseases. Policies targeting food environments (FE policies) may improve population diets. This review of systematic reviews aims to summarise recent evidence of the effectiveness of FE policies in improving diets. We searched PubMed for systematic reviews published from January 2010 onwards. Eligible FE policies included: nutrition and food labelling, provision of foods in public institutions or specific settings, price, marketing, nutrition quality and portion size, and availability of foods in retail and food service establishments. A MeaSurement Tool to Assess systematic Reviews 2 (AMSTAR 2) instrument was used to assess review quality. Reviews of critically low quality were excluded. Results were narratively reported in text and tables. The search identified 1102 records after removing duplicates. Following screening and quality assessment we included 12 systematic reviews. Two reviews focused on nutrition and food labelling, two on provision of foods in school settings, four on price, none on marketing policies, three on nutrition quality and portion size and one on the availability of foods in retail and food service establishments. Pricing policies (tax/subsidy) appear effective in altering intake and purchase of targeted foods and beverages. FE policies targeting the availability of foods in retail and food establishments, food provision in school settings, product reformulation and the size of portions/packages or items of tableware also appear effective. Overall, policies targeting food environments appear effective in improving population diets. However, there is a need for further high-quality evidence.

Protocol for a cluster-randomized non-inferiority trial of the effect of direct access to publicly subsidized physiotherapy for adults with musculoskeletal pain.

BACKGROUND: In the Danish healthcare system, direct access to physiotherapy is an option, but public subsidy for treatment requires referral from a general practitioner. To relieve general practice of unnecessary consultations and provide patients with easier access to relevant treatment, direct access to publicly subsidized physiotherapy has been suggested. METHODS: Direct access to subsidized physiotherapy will be evaluated in a controlled design and has a duration of one year. Physiotherapy clinics invite eligible patients to participate in the evaluation. Participants complete questionnaires at baseline and six weeks and six months after baseline. Physical health status (ShortForm-12v2) is the primary outcome. In addition, the evaluation will assess the use of services in general practice, physiotherapy, specialists in private practice and hospitals and referrals to diagnostic imaging. A process evaluation will assess the attitude to and implementation of direct access to subsidized physiotherapy through the experiences and attitudes of local general practitioners, secretaries and physiotherapists in participating clinics. DISCUSSION: This intervention may affect the point of entry to health care services. For the intervention group the physiotherapists assume responsibility in symptom assessment. During recruitment registration of red flags in physiotherapy is closely monitored. The results of the study may be used to assess if direct access to subsidized physiotherapy is a way to relieve the workload in general practice while maintaining or improving patient level outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The project was reported to The Committee on Health Research Ethics of the Capital Region of Denmark with protocol number J.nr.: H-19074802. The Committee assessed the project as not registrable and therefore can be implemented without further permission. This trial has been registered at the Danish Data Protection Agency (J.nr.: P-2019-672). The trial has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifiers: NCT04900480).

Predicting Individual Risk of Emergency Hospital Admissions - A Retrospective Validation Study.

PURPOSE: A high number of hospital admissions may indicate poor general health and less than optimal health care across sectors. To prevent hospital admissions, previous studies have focused on predicting readmissions relating to a defined index admission and specific condition, whereas generic models suited for community-dwelling persons are lacking. The aim of this study was to validate a generic model that predicted risk of emergency hospital admission within the following three months and to investigate regional variation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study is an observational register-based validation study of a prediction model. The prediction model was based on a population of frail elderly, persons with non-communicable diseases, and persons with three emergency hospital admissions using information about diagnoses and hospital contacts. The prediction model consisted of two stages. In the first stage, covariate associations to admissions are estimated from observed data in one year. In the second stage, admissions are predicted in the coming three months based on observed estimations from the first stage. The validity of the model was calculated by comparing predicted and observed admissions from August 1st to October 31st, 2016. RESULTS: The study included 112,026 persons. In nationwide data, area under the curve (AUC) was 0.7742 (95% CI 0.7698-0.7786), and the positive predictive value was 52% for the 99th percentile (the top 1%). AUC varied between regions from 0.6914 in Southern Denmark (95% CI 0.6779-0.7049) to 0.8224 (95% CI 0.8064-0.8384) in North Denmark. AUC was higher with nationwide data compared to regional. CONCLUSION: The model performed satisfactorily in predicting individual risk of emergency hospital admission.

The Danish SoL Project: Effects of a Multi-Component Community-Based Health Promotion Intervention on Prevention of Overweight among 3-8-Year-Old Children.

The aim of the study was to determine the effects of a multi-component community-based health promotion intervention on body mass index (BMI) z-scores and waist circumference (WC) in three- to eight-year-old children. A quasi-experimental design was adopted to evaluate the effects of the SoL intervention involving three intervention and three control communities. The 19-month intervention was based on the supersetting approach and was designed to promote healthier eating and physical activity among children and their families. BMI z-scores and WC were measured at baseline and follow-up. At baseline, 238 (54%) and 214 (51%) of all eligible children were measured from intervention and control, respectively. The change over time in the BMI z-scores of children from the intervention group was significantly different from that of the control group (p = 0.001). BMI z-scores increased over time in the intervention group in contrast to the control group, whose BMI z-scores decreased (difference in change between groups 0.19 z-scores 95% CI 0.08, 0.30). No significant differences were observed for WC. The results showed no favourable effects of the intervention of Project SoL on BMI z-scores and WC in children. Further studies based on a larger sample size and a longer intervention duration are needed.

Combined Influence of Waist and Hip Circumference on Risk of Death in a Large Cohort of European and Australian Adults.

Background Waist circumference and hip circumference are both strongly associated with risk of death; however, their joint association has rarely been investigated. Methods and Results The MONICA Risk, Genetics, Archiving, and Monograph (MORGAM) Project was conducted in 30 cohorts from 11 countries; 90 487 men and women, aged 30 to 74 years, predominantly white, with no history of cardiovascular disease, were recruited in 1986 to 2010 and followed up for up to 24 years. Hazard ratios were estimated using sex-specific Cox models, stratified by cohort, with age as the time scale. Models included baseline categorical obesity measures, age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, antihypertensive drugs, smoking, and diabetes mellitus. A total of 9105 all-cause deaths were recorded during a median follow-up of 10 years. Hazard ratios for all-cause death presented J- or U-shaped associations with most obesity measures. With waist and hip circumference included in the same model, for all hip sizes, having a smaller waist was strongly associated with lower risk of death, except for men with the smallest hips. In addition, among those with smaller waists, hip size was strongly negatively associated with risk of death, with ≈20% more people identified as being at increased risk compared with waist circumference alone. Conclusions A more complex relationship between hip circumference, waist circumference, and risk of death is revealed when both measures are considered simultaneously. This is particularly true for individuals with smaller waists, where having larger hips was protective. Considering both waist and hip circumference in the clinical setting could help to best identify those at increased risk of death.