The relative importance of ability, luck and motivation in team sports: a Bayesian model of performance in the English Rugby Premiership.

Results in contact sports like Rugby are mainly interpreted in terms of the ability and/or luck of teams. But this neglects the important role of the motivation of players, reflected in the effort exerted in the game. Here we present a Bayesian hierarchical model to infer the main features that explain score differences in rugby matches of the English Premiership Rugby 2020/2021 season. The main result is that, indeed, effort (seen as a ratio between the number of tries and the scoring kick attempts) is highly relevant to explain outcomes in those matches.

Causal graph extraction from news: a comparative study of time-series causality learning techniques.

Causal graph extraction from news has the potential to aid in the understanding of complex scenarios. In particular, it can help explain and predict events, as well as conjecture about possible cause-effect connections. However, limited work has addressed the problem of large-scale extraction of causal graphs from news articles. This article presents a novel framework for extracting causal graphs from digital text media. The framework relies on topic-relevant variables representing terms and ongoing events that are selected from a domain under analysis by applying specially developed information retrieval and natural language processing methods. Events are represented as event-phrase embeddings, which make it possible to group similar events into semantically cohesive clusters. A time series of the selected variables is given as input to a causal structure learning techniques to learn a causal graph associated with the topic that is being examined. The complete framework is applied to the New York Times dataset, which covers news for a period of 246 months (roughly 20 years), and is illustrated through a case study. An initial evaluation based on synthetic data is carried out to gain insight into the most effective time-series causality learning techniques. This evaluation comprises a systematic analysis of nine state-of-the-art causal structure learning techniques and two novel ensemble methods derived from the most effective techniques. Subsequently, the complete framework based on the most promising causal structure learning technique is evaluated with domain experts in a real-world scenario through the use of the presented case study. The proposed analysis offers valuable insights into the problems of identifying topic-relevant variables from large volumes of news and learning causal graphs from time series.

Order batching and order picking with 3D positioning of the articles: solution through a hybrid evolutionary algorithm.

A critical factor in the logistic management of firms is the degree of efficiency of the operations in distribution centers. Of particular interest is the pick-up process, since it is the costliest operation, amounting to 50 and up to 75% of the total cost of the activities in storage facilities. In this paper we jointly address the order batching problem (OBP) and the order picking problem (OPP). The former problem amounts to find optimal batches of goods to be picked up, by restructuring incoming orders by either splitting up large orders or combining small orders into larger ones that can then be picked in a single picking tour. The OPP, in turn, involves identifying optimal sequences of visits to the storage positions in which the goods to be included in each batch are stored. We seek to design a plan that minimizes the total operational cost of the pick-up process, proportional to the displacement times around the storage area as well as to all the time spent in pick-ups and finishing up orders to be punctually delivered. Earliness or tardiness will induce inefficiency costs, be it because of the excessive use of space or breaches of contracts with customers. Tsai, Liou and Huang in 2008 have generated 2D and 3D instances. In previous works we have addressed the 2D ones, achieving very good results. Here we focus on 3D instances (the articles are placed at different levels in the storage center), which involve a higher complexity. This contributes to improve the performance of the hybrid evolutionary algorithm (HEA) applied in our previous works.

Stochastic forestry harvest planning under soil compaction conditions.

We present a study of annual forestry harvesting planning considering the risk of compaction generated by the transit of heavy forestry machinery. Soil compaction is a problem that occurs when the soil loses its natural resistance to resist the movement of machinery, causing the soil to be compacted in excess. This compaction generates unwanted effects on both the ecosystem and its economic sustainability. Therefore, when the risk of compaction is considerable, harvest operations must be stopped, complicating the annual plan and incurring in excessive costs to alleviate the situation. To incorporate the risk of compaction into the planning process, it is necessary to incorporate the analysis of the soil's hydrological balance, which combines the effect of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. This requires analyzing the uncertainty of rainfall regimes, for which we propose a stochastic model under different scenarios. This stochastic model yields better results than the current deterministic methods used by lumber companies. Initially, the model is solved analyzing monthly scenarios. Then, we change to a biweekly model that provides a better representation of the dynamics of the system. While this improves the performance of the model, this new formulation increases the number of scenarios of the stochastic model. To address this complexity, we apply the Progressive Hedging method, which decomposes the problem in scenarios, yielding high-quality solutions in reasonable time.

Spatial modelling for low pathogenicity avian influenza virus at the interface of wild birds and backyard poultry.

Low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (LPAIV) is endemic in wild birds and poultry in Argentina, and active surveillance has been in place to prevent any eventual virus mutation into a highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV), which is exotic in this country. Risk mapping can contribute effectively to disease surveillance and control systems, but it has proven a very challenging task in the absence of disease data. We used a combination of expert opinion elicitation, multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and ecological niche modelling (ENM) to identify the most suitable areas for the occurrence of LPAIV at the interface between backyard domestic poultry and wild birds in Argentina. This was achieved by calculating a spatially explicit risk index. As evidenced by the validation and sensitivity analyses, our model was successful in identifying high-risk areas for LPAIV occurrence. Also, we show that the risk for virus occurrence is significantly higher in areas closer to commercial poultry farms. Although the active surveillance systems have been successful in detecting LPAIV-positive backyard farms and wild birds in Argentina, our predictions suggest that surveillance efforts in those compartments could be improved by including high-risk areas identified by our model. Our research provides a tool to guide surveillance activities in the future, and presents a mixed methodological approach which could be implemented in areas where the disease is exotic or rare and a knowledge-driven modelling method is necessary.