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Streamflow sensitivity to different hydrologic processes varies in both space and time. This sensitivity is traditionally evaluated for the parameters specific to a given hydrologic model simulating streamflow. In this study, we apply a novel analysis over more than 3000 basins across North America considering a blended hydrologic model structure, which includes not only parametric, but also structural uncertainties. This enables seamless quantification of model process sensitivities and parameter sensitivities across a continuous set of models. It also leads to high-level conclusions about the importance of water cycle components on streamflow predictions, such as quickflow being the most sensitive process for streamflow simulations across the North American continent. The results of the 3000 basins are used to derive an approximation of sensitivities based on physiographic and climatologic data without the need to perform expensive sensitivity analyses. Detailed spatio-temporal inputs and results are shared through an interactive website.
RESUMO
Hydrologic model intercomparison studies help to evaluate the agility of models to simulate variables such as streamflow, evaporation, and soil moisture. This study is the third in a sequence of the Great Lakes Runoff Intercomparison Projects. The densely populated Lake Erie watershed studied here is an important international lake that has experienced recent flooding and shoreline erosion alongside excessive nutrient loads that have contributed to lake eutrophication. Understanding the sources and pathways of flows is critical to solve the complex issues facing this watershed. Seventeen hydrologic and land-surface models of different complexity are set up over this domain using the same meteorological forcings, and their simulated streamflows at 46 calibration and seven independent validation stations are compared. Results show that: (1) the good performance of Machine Learning models during calibration decreases significantly in validation due to the limited amount of training data; (2) models calibrated at individual stations perform equally well in validation; and (3) most distributed models calibrated over the entire domain have problems in simulating urban areas but outperform the other models in validation.
RESUMO
Feedforward neural network is one of the most commonly used function approximation techniques and has been applied to a wide variety of problems arising from various disciplines. However, neural networks are black-box models having multiple challenges/difficulties associated with training and generalization. This paper initially looks into the internal behavior of neural networks and develops a detailed interpretation of the neural network functional geometry. Based on this geometrical interpretation, a new set of variables describing neural networks is proposed as a more effective and geometrically interpretable alternative to the traditional set of network weights and biases. Then, this paper develops a new formulation for neural networks with respect to the newly defined variables; this reformulated neural network (ReNN) is equivalent to the common feedforward neural network but has a less complex error response surface. To demonstrate the learning ability of ReNN, in this paper, two training methods involving a derivative-based (a variation of backpropagation) and a derivative-free optimization algorithms are employed. Moreover, a new measure of regularization on the basis of the developed geometrical interpretation is proposed to evaluate and improve the generalization ability of neural networks. The value of the proposed geometrical interpretation, the ReNN approach, and the new regularization measure are demonstrated across multiple test problems. Results show that ReNN can be trained more effectively and efficiently compared to the common neural networks and the proposed regularization measure is an effective indicator of how a network would perform in terms of generalization.