Understanding breast cancer patient pathways and their impact on survival in Mexico.

BACKGROUND: Understanding patient pathways from discovery of breast symptoms to treatment start can aid in identifying ways to improve access to timely cancer care. This study aimed to describe the patient pathways experienced by uninsured women from detection to treatment initiation for breast cancer in Mexico City and estimate the potential impact of earlier treatment on patient survival. METHODS: We used process mining, a data analytics technique, to create maps of the patient pathways. We then compared the waiting times and pathways between patients who initially consulted a private service versus those who sought care at a public health service. Finally, we conducted scenario modelling to estimate the impact of early diagnosis and treatment on patient survival. RESULTS: Our study revealed a common pathway followed by breast cancer patients treated at the two largest public cancer centres in Mexico City. However, patients who initially sought care in private clinics experienced shorter mean wait times for their first medical consultation (66 vs 88 days), and diagnostic confirmation of cancer (57 vs 71 days) compared to those who initially utilized public clinics. Our scenario modelling indicated that improving early diagnosis to achieve at least 60% of patients starting treatment at early stages could increase mean patient survival by up to two years. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the potential of process mining to inform healthcare policy for improvement of breast cancer care in Mexico. Also, our findings indicate that reducing diagnostic and treatment intervals for breast cancer patients could result in substantially better patient outcomes. POLICY SUMMARY: This study revealed significant differences in time intervals along the pathways of women with breast cancer according to the type of health service first consulted by the patients: whether public primary care clinics or private doctors. Policies directed to reduce these inequities in access to timely cancer care are desperately needed to reduce socioeconomic disparities in breast cancer survival.

Time trends and geographical variation in major lower limb amputation related to peripheral arterial disease in England.

BACKGROUND: Above and below knee amputation (AKA, BKA) are treatments of last resort for peripheral arterial disease (PAD). The aim was to examine amputation rates, AKA:BKA ratios, previous revascularization and minor amputation, lengths of stay in hospital, mortality following amputation, and regional variation in people with and without diabetes in England. METHODS: The study used population-based ecological and cohort study designs, 31 672 census areas, hospital admissions from 2006 to 2018 and Poisson, logistic and Cox regression. RESULTS: There were 47 249 major lower limb amputations (50.7% AKA; 48% had diabetes), giving an annual PAD-related amputation rate of 11 per 100 000 in the population aged 25+ years. Amputation rates were higher in men and substantially higher in people with diabetes. The AKA:BKA ratio was 0.63 in patients with diabetes (n = 22 702) and 1.62 in patients without diabetes (n = 24 547). Of patients having AKA, 25.3% died within 90 days of amputation compared with 11.9% for BKA. Median survival following amputation ranged from only 1.68 years following AKA in patients with diabetes to 5.72 years following BKA in patients without diabetes. Amputation rates decreased over time mainly in the population with diabetes. Short-term mortality and lengths of stay in hospital also decreased over time, while the percentage with previous revascularization generally increased. Amputation rates and AKA:BKA ratios were highest in the North. Adjustment for age, sex and deprivation did not substantially alter geographical patterns. Adjusted 90-day mortality was generally higher in the North and the Midlands but also high in London. There were also regional variations in adjusted duration from admission to amputation, duration from amputation to discharge or death in hospital, previous revascularization and previous minor amputation. CONCLUSIONS: There were large variations in amputation rates and survival following amputation in relation to diabetes status and amputation level, and regional variations which remained after adjustment for deprivation.

Socioeconomic disparities in surgery for carotid artery disease in England.

BACKGROUND: Carotid artery disease and stroke are more prevalent in socioeconomically deprived areas. The aim was to investigate socioeconomic disparities in carotid artery disease surgery rates and in outcomes following surgery. METHODS: The study used population-based ecological and cohort study designs, 31 672 census areas in England, hospital admissions from April 2006 to March 2018, the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 as the area-level deprivation indicator, and Poisson, logistic, and Cox regression. RESULTS: A total of 54 377 patients (67 per cent men) from a population aged 55 years and older of 14.7 million had carotid artery disease procedures (95 per cent carotid endarterectomy). Carotid endarterectomy rates were 116 per cent (95% c.i. 101 to 132) higher in men and 180 per cent (95% c.i. 155 to 207) higher in women aged 55-64 years in the most compared with the least socioeconomically deprived areas by quintile. However, this difference diminished and appeared to reverse with increasing age, with 24 per cent (95% c.i. 14 to 33) and 12 per cent (95% c.i. -3 to 24) lower carotid endarterectomy rates respectively in men and women aged 85 years and older in the most deprived areas. Patients in deprived areas having carotid endarterectomy were more likely to have been admitted as symptomatic emergency carotid artery disease admissions. Mortality, and a combined outcome of mortality or stroke-related re-admission, were both worse in patients living in more deprived areas and were only partially accounted for by the higher prevalence of co-morbidities. There was, however, no clear pattern of association between deprivation and elective waiting time for carotid endarterectomy. CONCLUSIONS: These results provide evidence of socioeconomic disparities in surgery for carotid artery disease. Clear policies are needed to address these disparities.

Socioeconomic disparities in abdominal aortic aneurysm repair rates and survival.

BACKGROUND: Abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) is more prevalent in socioeconomically disadvantaged areas. This study investigated socioeconomic disparities in AAA repair rates and survival. METHODS: The study used ecological and cohort study designs, from 31 672 census areas in England (April 2006 to March 2018), the Index of Multiple Deprivation 2010 as the area-level deprivation indicator, and Poisson, logistic and Cox regression. RESULTS: Some 77 606 patients (83.4 per cent men) in four age categories (55-64, 65-74, 75-84, 85 or more years) were admitted with AAA from a population aged at least 55 years of 14.7 million. Elective open and endovascular repair rates were 41 (95 per cent c.i. 23 to 61) and 60 (36 to 89) per cent higher respectively among men aged 55-64 years in the most versus least deprived areas by quintile. This differences diminished and appeared to reverse with increasing age, with 26 (-1 to 45) and 25 (13 to 35) per cent lower rates respectively in men aged 85 years or more in the most deprived areas. Men admitted from more deprived areas were more likely to die in hospital without aneurysm repair. Among those who had aneurysm repair, this was more likely to be for a ruptured aneurysm than among men from less deprived areas. For intact aneurysm repair, they were relatively more likely to have this during an emergency admission. The mortality rate after repair was higher for men from more deprived areas, although the hazard diminished with age. Patterns were unclear for women. CONCLUSION: There were clear socioeconomic disparities in operation rates, mode of presentation, and outcome for AAA surgery. Policies are needed to address these disparities.

Varicose veins treatment in England: population-based study of time trends and disparities related to demographic, ethnic, socioeconomic, and geographical factors.

BACKGROUND: Varicose vein (VV) treatments have changed significantly in recent years leading to potential disparities in service provision. The aim of this study was to examine the trends in VV treatment in England and to identify disparities in the provision of day-case and inpatient treatments related to deprivation, ethnicity, and other demographic, and geographical factors. METHOD: A population-based study using linked hospital episode statistics for England categorized VV procedures and compared population rates and procedure characteristics by ethnicity, deprivation quintile, and geographical area. RESULTS: A total of 311 936 people had 389 592 VV procedures between 2006/07 and 2017/18, with a further 63 276 procedures between 2018/19 and 2020/21. Procedure rates have reduced in all but the oldest age groups, whereas endovenous procedures have risen to more than 60 per cent of the total in recent years. In younger age groups there was a 20-30 per cent reduction in procedure rates for the least-deprived compared with the most-deprived quintiles. Non-white ethnicity was associated with lower procedure rates. Large regional and local differences were identified in standardized rates of VV procedures. In the most recent 5-year interval, the North-East region had a three-fold higher rate than the South-East region with evidence of greater variation between commissioners in overall rates, the proportion of endovenous procedures, and policies regarding bilateral treatments. CONCLUSIONS: There are substantial geographical variations in the provision of treatment for VVs, which are not explained by demographic differences. These have persisted, despite the publication of guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, and many commissioners, and providers would seem to implement policies that are contrary to this guidance. Lower rates of procedures in less-deprived areas may reflect treatments carried out in private practice, which are not included in these data.

Outcomes of aortic aneurysm surgery in England: a nationwide cohort study using hospital admissions data from 2002 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom aortic aneurysms (AA) services have undergone reconfiguration to improve outcomes. The National Health Service collects data on all hospital admissions in England. The complex administrative datasets generated have the potential to be used to monitor activity and outcomes, however, there are challenges in using these data as they are primarily collected for administrative purposes. The aim of this study was to develop standardised algorithms with the support of a clinical consensus group to identify all AA activity, classify the AA management into clinically meaningful case mix groups and define outcome measures that could be used to compare outcomes among AA service providers. METHODS: In-patient data about aortic aneurysm (AA) admissions from the 2002/03 to 2014/15 were acquired. A stepwise approach, with input from a clinical consensus group, was used to identify relevant cases. The data is primarily coded into episodes, these were amalgamated to identify admissions; admissions were linked to understand patient pathways and index admissions. Cases were then divided into case-mix groups based upon examination of individually sampled and aggregate data. Consistent measures of outcome were developed, including length of stay, complications within the index admission, post-operative mortality and re-admission. RESULTS: Several issues were identified in the dataset including potential conflict in identifying emergency and elective cases and potential confusion if an inappropriate admission definition is used. Ninety six thousand seven hundred thirty-five patients were identified using the algorithms developed in this study to extract AA cases from Hospital episode statistics. From 2002 to 2015, 83,968 patients (87% of all cases identified) underwent repair for AA and 12,767 patients (13% of all cases identified) died in hospital without any AA repair. Six thousand three hundred twenty-nine patients (7.5%) had repair for complex AA and 77,639 (92.5%) had repair for infra-renal AA. CONCLUSION: The proposed methods define homogeneous clinical groups and outcomes by combining administrative codes in the data. These methodologically robust methods can help examine outcomes associated with previous and current service provisions and aid future reconfiguration of aortic aneurysm surgery services.

Direct medical costs in the preceding, event and subsequent years of a first severe hypoglycaemia episode requiring hospitalization: A population-based cohort study.

AIMS: We aimed to estimate the use of healthcare services and the direct medical costs accrued by patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) during the year of the first severe hypoglycaemia (SH) event, as well as during the years before and after the event year. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed a population-based, retrospective cohort including all adults with DM managed in the primary care setting from the Hong Kong Hospital Authority between 2006 and 2013. DM patients for whom SH was first recorded during the designated period were identified and matched to a control group of patients who had not experienced an SH event using the propensity score method. Direct medical costs in the years before, during and after the first SH event were determined by totalling the costs of health services utilized within respective years. RESULTS: After matching, a total of 22 694 DM patients were divided into the first recorded-SH group (n = 11 347) and the non-SH control group (n = 11 347). Patients for whom SH was first recorded, on average, made 7.85 outpatient clinic visits, made 1.89 emergency visits and spent 17.75 nights hospitalized during the event year. Mean direct medical costs during the event year were 11 751 US$, more than 2-fold that during the preceding year (4846 US$; P < 0.001) and subsequent years (4198-4700 US$; P < 0.001) and was 4.5 times that 2 years before the event (2481 US$; P < 0.001). Incremental costs of SH patients vs matched controls during the event year and the preceding year were 10 873 US$ (P < 0.001) and 3974 US$ (P < 0.001), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: SH is associated with excessive hospital admission rates and direct medical costs during the event year and, in particular, during the year before as compared to patients who had not experienced an SH event.

Cost-Effectiveness Thresholds: the Past, the Present and the Future.

Cost-effectiveness (CE) thresholds are being discussed more frequently and there have been many new developments in this area; however, there is a lack of understanding about what thresholds mean and their implications. This paper provides an overview of the CE threshold literature. First, the meaning of a CE threshold and the key assumptions involved (perfect divisibility, marginal increments in budget, etc.) are highlighted using a hypothetical example, and the use of historic/heuristic estimates of the threshold is noted along with their limitations. Recent endeavours to estimate the empirical value of the thresholds, both from the supply side and the demand side, are then presented. The impact on CE thresholds of future directions for the field, such as thresholds across sectors and the incorporation of multiple criteria beyond quality-adjusted life-years as a measure of 'value', are highlighted. Finally, a number of common issues and misconceptions associated with CE thresholds are addressed.

Direct medical costs of diabetes mellitus in the year of mortality and year preceding the year of mortality.

AIM: To report the health resource use and estimate the direct medical costs among patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) in the year of mortality and the year preceding the year of mortality. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed data from a population-based, retrospective cohort study including all adults with a DM diagnosis in Hong Kong between 2009 and 2013, and who died between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2013. The annual direct medical costs in the year of mortality and the year preceding the year of mortality were determined by summing the costs of health services utilized within the respective year. The costs were analysed by gender, the presence of comorbidities, diabetic complications and primary cause of death. RESULTS: A total of 10 649 patients met the eligibility criteria for analysis. On average, the direct medical costs in the year of death were 1.947 times higher than those in the year before death. Men and women with DM incurred similar costs in the year preceding the year of mortality and in the mortality year. Patients with any diabetic complications incurred greater costs in the year of mortality and the year before mortality than those without. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis provides new evidence on incorporating additional direct medical costs in the mortality year, and refining the structure of total cost estimates for use in costing and cost-effectiveness analyses of interventions for DM.

Cost effectiveness of using cognitive screening tests for detecting dementia and mild cognitive impairment in primary care.

INTRODUCTION: We estimated the cost effectiveness of different cognitive screening tests for use by General Practitioners (GPs) to detect cognitive impairment in England. METHODS: A patient-level cost-effectiveness model was developed using a simulated cohort that represents the elderly population in England (65 years and older). Each patient was followed over a lifetime period. Data from published sources were used to populate the model. The costs include government funded health and social care, private social care and informal care. Patient health benefit was measured and valued in Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). RESULTS: Base-case analyses found that adopting any of the three cognitive tests (Mini-Mental State Examination, 6-Item Cognitive Impairment Test or GPCOG (General Practitioner Assessment of Cognition)) delivered more QALYs for patients over their lifetime and made savings across sectors including healthcare, social care and informal care compared with GP unassisted judgement. The benefits were due to early access to medications. Among the three cognitive tests, adopting the GPCOG was considered the most cost-effective option with the highest Incremental Net Benefit (INB) at the threshold of £30 000 per QALY from both the National Health Service and Personal Social Service (NHS PSS) perspective (£195 034 per 1000 patients) and the broader perspective that includes private social care and informal care (£196 251 per 1000 patients). Uncertainty was assessed in both deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses indicate that the use of any of the three cognitive tests could be considered a cost-effective strategy compared with GP unassisted judgement. The most cost-effective option in the base-case was the GPCOG. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A case study using the PrOACT-URL and BRAT frameworks for structured benefit risk assessment.

While benefit-risk assessment is a key component of the drug development and maintenance process, it is often described in a narrative. In contrast, structured benefit-risk assessment builds on established ideas from decision analysis and comprises a qualitative framework and quantitative methodology. We compare two such frameworks, applying multi-criteria decision-analysis (MCDA) within the PrOACT-URL framework and weighted net clinical benefit (wNCB), within the BRAT framework. These are applied to a case study of natalizumab for the treatment of relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis. We focus on the practical considerations of applying these methods and give recommendations for visual presentation of results. In the case study, we found structured benefit-risk analysis to be a useful tool for structuring, quantifying, and communicating the relative benefit and safety profiles of drugs in a transparent, rational and consistent way. The two frameworks were similar. MCDA is a generic and flexible methodology that can be used to perform a structured benefit-risk in any common context. wNCB is a special case of MCDA and is shown to be equivalent to an extension of the number needed to treat (NNT) principle. It is simpler to apply and understand than MCDA and can be applied when all outcomes are measured on a binary scale.