A Unit-Concentration Method to Quantify Source Contribution.

Solute migration is typically simulated to describe and estimate the fate and transport of contaminants in groundwater. The unit-concentration approach is investigated here as a method to enable solute transport simulations to expand the capabilities of groundwater flow modeling. The unit-concentration method uses a concentration value of one to identify sources of water to be assessed and a concentration of zero for all other water sources. The distribution of concentration thus obtained, unlike particle tracking methods, provides a more intuitive and direct quantification of the contribution of sources reaching various sinks. The unit-concentration approach can be applied readily with existing solute transport software for a range of analyses including source allocation, well capture analysis, and mixing/dilution calculations. This paper presents the theory, method, and example applications of the unit-concentration approach for source quantification.

Interventions to Improve Social Climate in Acute Mental Health Inpatient Settings: Systematic Review of Content and Outcomes.

Introduction: Quantification of the social climate of mental health care environments has received considerable attention. Investigations of the resulting measures indicate that social climate is associated with individual outcomes including patient satisfaction and staff burnout. Interest has grown in developing interventions to improve social climate in anticipation of subsequent related benefits. This study aimed to identify and critically review research about the effectiveness of interventions for improving social climate in inpatient adult acute mental health settings. Methods: Systematic review reported in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses. Comprehensive terms were used to search multiple electronic databases from inception to July 2019. Information about intervention type(s), complexity was extracted and study quality was assessed. Results: Twenty-three papers met inclusion criteria of which 20 used a pretest-posttest study design and three employed randomized and/or controlled designs. Interventions were environmental/structural, operational/process-oriented and developmental/person-oriented in nature and they ranged in complexity. The Ward Atmosphere Scale was the most common outcome measure used. Following quality assessment, six studies were judged to be sufficiently robust in terms of quality, theory-base, user-inclusion, and outcomes evaluation to contribute credibly to the evidence base. Of these, four complex person- and process-oriented intervention studies and two less complex structural/environmental intervention studies resulted in positive outcomes. Conclusion: There is limited strong evidence that interventions positively influence measures of ward social climate in acute adult mental health settings. Such measures should not be the sole criterion of success when evaluating change. Decisions about implementing change to improve social climate should be informed by meaningful proxy measures including the views and preferences of service users and other stakeholders. Studies using stronger designs are required to establish the ability of interventions to improve social climate.

Simulating Groundwater Interaction with a Surface Water Network Using Connected Linear Networks.

Simulating the interaction of groundwater with surface water networks using traditional boundary packages available with MODFLOW-USG can be challenging for complex systems. Often several package types are required as they are typically purpose built. Moreover, these packages generally do not interact with one another which complicates accounting of groundwater discharge at different points within the system. Here, we demonstrate that the connected linear network (CLN) package of MODFLOW-USG, and advances therein in USG-Transport, can be used to simulate groundwater interaction with a complex surface water network comprised of creeks, ponds, wetlands, and springs, in a manner that is comparable with these other packages, but with additional benefits, including explicit routing of water between the features.

Work-Life and Well-Being in U.K. Therapeutic Prison Officers: A Thematic Analysis.

Previous research has clearly demonstrated the positive impact of therapeutic interventions on offenders' well-being. Much less is known about the impact on prison staff facilitating and delivering such interventions. We employed qualitative methodology to capture a deeper understanding of the work of therapeutic prison officers. Seven prison officers working in a U.K. Category B therapeutic community prison were interviewed about their working lives, including their own participation in therapy. Following a thematic analysis approach, key findings indicated that the physical and cultural work environment was very important to staff; the therapeutic element of their job role, although demanding, was both satisfying and rewarding; and that working in a therapeutic prison environment provided the opportunity for personal as well as professional development. We conclude that further attention should be given to the unique nature of therapeutic prison work and the positive impact it can have on well-being at work.

Perceptions of Social Climate and Aggressive Behavior in Forensic Services: A Systematic Review.

Social climate is a term used to describe the environment of a particular setting which may influence the moods and behaviors of the people inhabiting that setting. This review explores perceptions of social climate in secure forensic services and the associations with aggression. Article searches were conducted using electronic databases, hand-searching reference lists, and contacting experts. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were applied to each study, and quality screens conducted on the remaining articles to establish those for inclusion. A total of seven studies were identified. Factors which were found to have an association with aggression included patients' perceptions of safety, the level of cohesion between patients, the atmosphere of the environment, and an open group climate. It is argued that services which create positive social climates for both staff and patients are more likely to observe lower levels of aggression.

Ward Climate Within a High Secure Forensic Psychiatric Hospital: Perceptions of Patients and Nursing Staff and the Role of Patient Characteristics.

Within this study the relationship between patient characteristics (age, length of stay, risk, psychopathy) and individual perceived ward climate (n=83), and differences between staff's and patient perceptions of climate (n=185) was investigated within a high secure forensic hospital. Results show that therapeutic hold was rated higher among staff compared to patients, while patients held a more favorable view on patient cohesion and experienced safety. Furthermore, patient characteristics (age, risk and psychopathy) were found to be related with individual ratings of ward climate. The findings underline the importance of assessing ward climate among both patients and staff in clinical practice.

A Review of Questionnaire Measures for Assessing the Social Climate in Prisons and Forensic Psychiatric Hospitals.

Significant time and resources are devoted to the monitoring of social climate in secure settings. However, if these efforts are to help (rather than hinder) attempts to improve the functioning of such units, the monitoring of social climate must be based on sound psychometric methods. The aim of this review was to determine what questionnaires exist to measure the social climate in secure settings and what evidence exists regarding their psychometric properties. Twelve questionnaire-based measures of social climate were identified. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema has received the most consistent empirical support, but this questionnaire does not provide as much of an in-depth, detailed insight into social climate as that provided by other social climate questionnaires. Although more extensive measures of climate exist, they have not yet received sufficient validation to justify their routine use in practice. Nevertheless, there is growing evidence that some questionnaire-based measures can provide a reliable and valid assessment of the social climate in secure settings, which has important clinical and theoretical implications.

Treatment Engagement From the Perspective of the Offender.

A systematic review of the reasons why detained adult offenders fail to attend or successfully complete treatment programme(s) was conducted. An initial search of the literature identified 2,827 articles, which following evaluation against explicit inclusion/exclusion criteria and a quality assessment was reduced to 13 studies. Extracted data from the 13 studies were synthesised using a qualitative approach. Despite the 13 studies being heterogeneous in design, there was consensus on the reasons offenders gave for completion/noncompletion of treatment. The majority were consistent with the factors outlined in the Multifactor Offender Readiness Model (MORM) and included a perceived lack of self-efficacy, negative perceptions of treatment, staff and peers, an inability to regulate emotions, and a lack of perceived choice and control. A lack of opportunity to engage in established, professionally run, groups, as well as perceived inadequate support from members of staff, was also associated with poor engagement and noncompletion of treatment.

Source screening module for contaminant transport analysis through vadose and saturated zones.

At complex sites there may be many potential sources of contaminants within the vadose zone. Screening-level analyses are useful to identify which potential source areas should be the focus of detailed investigation and analysis. A source screening module (SSM) has been developed to support preliminary evaluation of the threat posed by vadose zone waste sites on groundwater quality. This tool implements analytical solutions to simulate contaminant transport through the unsaturated and saturated zones to predict time-varying concentrations at potential groundwater receptors. The SSM integrates several transport processes in a single simulation that is implemented within a user-friendly, Microsoft Excel™ - based interface.

Behavioural case linkage with solved and unsolved crimes.

Offender behaviour is used to distinguish between crimes committed by the same person (linked crimes) and crimes committed by different people (unlinked crimes) through behavioural case linkage. There is growing evidence to support the use of behavioural case linkage by investigative organisations such as the police, but this research is typically limited to samples of solved crime that do not reflect how this procedure is used in real life. The current paper extends previous research by testing the potential for behavioural case linkage in a sample containing both solved and unsolved crimes. Discrimination accuracy is examined across crime categories (e.g. a crime pair containing a car theft and a residential burglary), across crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing a residential burglary and a commercial burglary), and within crime types (e.g. a crime pair containing two residential burglaries) using the number of kilometres (intercrime distance) and the number of days (temporal proximity) between offences to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The intercrime distance and/or the temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy across crime categories, across crime types, and within crime types as measured by Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. This suggests that behavioural case linkage can be used to assist the investigation, detection and prosecution of prolific and versatile serial offenders.

Lost in translation? Psychometric properties and construct validity of the English Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) social climate questionnaire.

The social climate of correctional (forensic) settings is likely to have a significant impact on the outcome of treatment and the overall functioning of these units. The Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) provides an objective way of measuring social climate that overcomes the content, length, and psychometric limitations of other measures. But the English translation of the EssenCES has yet to be sufficiently validated for use in forensic settings in the United Kingdom. The current study presents psychometric properties (factor structure and internal consistency) and an examination of construct validity with the English EssenCES. Satisfactory internal consistency was found for all EssenCES scales, and the expected three-factor structure was confirmed with both staff and residents and in prison and secure hospital settings using confirmatory factor analysis. Evidence to support construct validity was established using multilevel models, which showed statistically significant associations between scores on the EssenCES and scores on the Working Environment Scale, institutional aggression, and site security. Future validation work and potential practical applications of the EssenCES are discussed.

Approaches to the simulation of unconfined flow and perched groundwater flow in MODFLOW.

Various approaches have been proposed to manage the nonlinearities associated with the unconfined flow equation and to simulate perched groundwater conditions using the MODFLOW family of codes. The approaches comprise a variety of numerical techniques to prevent dry cells from becoming inactive and to achieve a stable solution focused on formulations of the unconfined, partially-saturated, groundwater flow equation. Keeping dry cells active avoids a discontinuous head solution which in turn improves the effectiveness of parameter estimation software that relies on continuous derivatives. Most approaches implement an upstream weighting of intercell conductance and Newton-Raphson linearization to obtain robust convergence. In this study, several published approaches were implemented in a stepwise manner into MODFLOW for comparative analysis. First, a comparative analysis of the methods is presented using synthetic examples that create convergence issues or difficulty in handling perched conditions with the more common dry-cell simulation capabilities of MODFLOW. Next, a field-scale three-dimensional simulation is presented to examine the stability and performance of the discussed approaches in larger, practical, simulation settings.

Piecewise-continuous boundaries using the MODFLOW FHB and MT3DMS HSS packages.

It is often necessary to simulate the influx to a groundwater model of water containing dissolved contaminants. Until fairly recently, users of MODFLOW and MT3DMS were restricted to varying the flux of water and contaminants on a stress-period basis: when a time-varying loading pattern required simulation, the modeler's only recourse was to discretize the model into many stress periods. From a practical standpoint this is cumbersome, while from a technical standpoint it requires that the modeler define a priori an appropriate time discretization that can accurately reproduce time-varying flow and mass loading. This is particularly undesirable when attempting to infer a time-varying flow or mass loading using inverse methods. The advent of the Flow and Head Boundary (FHB) package in the late 1990s greatly mitigated these limitations from the flow perspective. The recent release of the Hydrocarbon Spill Source (HSS) package for MT3DMS has essentially removed the limitation from the contaminant mass perspective. This Methods Note verifies the FHB and HSS packages by comparison with more commonly used boundary packages and highlights some benefits of their combined use, with reference to the reconstruction of historic flow and mass fluxes through inverse modeling. (Note: The Flow and Head Boundary and Hydrocarbon Spill Source packages are referred to throughout as "FHB" and "HSS", respectively,--that is, omitting version number suffixes--as the discussion presented should apply to all releases of each package.).

Using a cloud to replenish parched groundwater modeling efforts.

Groundwater models can be improved by introduction of additional parameter flexibility and simultaneous use of soft-knowledge. However, these sophisticated approaches have high computational requirements. Cloud computing provides unprecedented access to computing power via the Internet to facilitate the use of these techniques. A modeler can create, launch, and terminate "virtual" computers as needed, paying by the hour, and save machine images for future use. Such cost-effective and flexible computing power empowers groundwater modelers to routinely perform model calibration and uncertainty analysis in ways not previously possible.

A theoretical and practical test of geographical profiling with serial vehicle theft in a U.K. context.

Geographical profiling is an investigative methodology sometimes employed by the police to predict the residence of an unknown offender from the locations of his/her crimes. The validity of geographical profiling, however, has not been fully explored for certain crime types. This study, therefore, presents a preliminary test of the potential for geographical profiling with a sample of 145 serial vehicle thieves from the U.K. The behavioural assumptions underlying geographical profiling (distance decay and domocentricity) are tested and a simple practical test of profiling using the spatial mean is presented. There is evidence for distance decay but not domocentricity among the spatial behaviour of car thieves from the U.K. A degree of success was achieved when applying the spatial mean on a case-by-case basis. The level of success varied, however, and neither series length in days nor number of crimes could account for the variation. The findings question previously held assumptions regarding geographical profiling and have potential theoretical and practical implications for the study and investigation of vehicle theft in the U.K.

The EssenCES measure of social climate: a preliminary validation and normative data in UK high secure hospital settings.

BACKGROUND: The social climate of forensic units is important but little investigated, in part because of the unavailability of a clinically practical and statistically sound measure. AIMS: To provide preliminary psychometric and normative data for the English version of the Essen Climate Evaluation Schema (EssenCES) in UK high-security hospital settings. METHOD: A total of 324 staff and patients from three high-security hospital services completed the EssenCES, and a subgroup completed a range of other questionnaires related to therapeutic milieu and working environment (GMI, WAAM, WES-10). RESULTS: The original three-factor structure and satisfactory internal consistency were retained. The pattern of correlations between the EssenCES scales and other climate-related variables support the construct validity of the EssenCES measure, with the exception of the Patient Cohesion subscale. CONCLUSIONS: Although preliminary, these data suggest that the English version of EssenCES may be a valid tool for assessing the social climate of high secure hospital settings in the UK, but a larger research study is required, covering a wider range of psychiatric disorders, types of service and levels of security.

KT3D_H2O: a program for kriging water level data using hydrologic drift terms.

It is often necessary to estimate the zone of contribution to, or the capture zone developed by, pumped wells: for example, when evaluating pump-and-treat remedies and when developing wellhead protection areas for supply wells. Tonkin and Larson (2002) and Brochu and Marcotte (2003) describe a mapping-based method for estimating the capture zone of pumped wells, developed by combining universal kriging (kriging with a trend) with analytical expressions that describe the response of the potentiometric surface to certain applied stresses. This Methods Note describes (a) expansions to the technique described by Tonkin and Larson (2002); (b) the concept of the capture frequency map (CFM), a technique that combines information from multiple capture zone maps into a single depiction of capture; (c) the development of a graphical user interface to facilitate the use of the methods described; and (d) the integration of these programs within the MapWindow geographic information system environment. An example application is presented that illustrates ground water level contours, capture zones, and a CFM prepared using the methods and software described.

Are models too simple? Arguments for increased parameterization.

The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach.