Performance of an easy-to-use prediction model for renal patient survival: an external validation study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

Background: An easy-to-use prediction model for long-term renal patient survival based on only four predictors [age, primary renal disease, sex and therapy at 90 days after the start of renal replacement therapy (RRT)] has been developed in The Netherlands. To assess the usability of this model for use in Europe, we externally validated the model in 10 European countries. Methods: Data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry were used. Ten countries that reported individual patient data to the registry on patients starting RRT in the period 1995-2005 were included. Patients <16 years of age and/or with missing predictor variable data were excluded. The external validation of the prediction model was evaluated for the 10- (primary endpoint), 5- and 3-year survival predictions by assessing the calibration and discrimination outcomes. Results: We used a data set of 136 304 patients from 10 countries. The calibration in the large and calibration plots for 10 deciles of predicted survival probabilities showed average differences of 1.5, 3.2 and 3.4% in observed versus predicted 10-, 5- and 3-year survival, with some small variation on the country level. The concordance index, indicating the discriminatory power of the model, was 0.71 in the complete ERA-EDTA Registry cohort and varied according to country level between 0.70 and 0.75. Conclusions: A prediction model for long-term renal patient survival developed in a single country, based on only four easily available variables, has a comparably adequate performance in a wide range of other European countries.

Renal replacement therapy in Europe: a summary of the 2013 ERA-EDTA Registry Annual Report with a focus on diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND: This article provides a summary of the 2013 European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry Annual Report (available at http://www.era-edta-reg.org), with a focus on patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) as the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD). METHODS: In 2015, the ERA-EDTA Registry received data on renal replacement therapy (RRT) for ESRD from 49 national or regional renal registries in 34 countries in Europe and bordering the Mediterranean Sea. Individual patient data were provided by 31 registries, while 18 registries provided aggregated data. The total population covered by the participating registries comprised 650 million people. RESULTS: In total, 72 933 patients started RRT for ESRD within the countries and regions reporting to the ERA-EDTA Registry, resulting in an overall incidence of 112 per million population (pmp). The overall prevalence on 31 December 2013 was 738 pmp (n = 478 990). Patients with DM as the cause of ESRD comprised 24% of the incident RRT patients (26 pmp) and 17% of the prevalent RRT patients (122 pmp). When compared with the USA, the incidence of patients starting RRT pmp secondary to DM in Europe was five times lower and the incidence of RRT due to other causes of ESRD was two times lower. Overall, 19 426 kidney transplants were performed (30 pmp). The 5-year adjusted survival for all RRT patients was 60.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 60.5-61.3] and 50.6% (95% CI 49.9-51.2) for patients with DM as the cause of ESRD.

Clinical evolution of chronic renal patients with HIV infection in replacement therapy.

Patients on renal replacement therapy (RRT) infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) are a special group with growing interest. In order to study the epidemiological data of HIV+ patients on RRT in Spain, we collected individual information from 2004-2011 (period of use of highly active antiretroviral therapy [HAART] in the Autonomous Communities of Andalusia, Aragon, Asturias, Catalonia, Valencia, Castilla la Mancha, Castilla León, Galicia, Madrid, La Rioja and the Basque Country, comprising 85% of the Spanish population. A total of 271 incident and 209 prevalent patients were analysed. They were compared with the remaining patients on RRT during the same period. The annual incidence was 0.8 patients per one million inhabitants, with a significant increase during the follow-up period. The proportion of prevalent HIV+ patients was 5.1 per 1,000 patients on RRT (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.4-5.8. Although glomerular diseases constituted the majority of cases (42%), diabetic nephropathy was the cause in 14% of patients. The nation-wide totals for these percentages were 13 and 25%, respectively. Compared to the total of patients in treatment, the risk of death was significantly higher in the HIV+ group: hazard ratio (HR) adjusted for age, sex and diabetes was 2.26 (95% CI 1.74 - 2.91). Hepatitis C coinfection increased the risk of death in the HIV+ group (HR 1.77; 95% CI 1.10 - 2.85). The probability of kidney transplantation in HIV+ was only 17% after 7 years, comparing with total RTT patients (HR 0.15; 95% CI: 0.10-0.24). Despite the use of HAART, the incidence of HIV+ patients on dialysis has increased; their mortality still exceeds non-HIV patients, and they have a very low rate of transplantation. It is necessary to further our knowledge of this disease in order to improve results.