Effective generation mechanisms of tropical instability waves as represented by high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean prediction experiments.

Cusp-shaped fluctuations of the sea surface temperature (SST) front in the tropical Pacific, now known as tropical instability waves (TIWs), were discovered by remote sensing in the 1970s. Their discovery was followed by both theoretical and analytical studies, which, along with in situ observations, identified several possible generation mechanisms. Although modeling studies have shown that TIWs strongly influence the heat budget, their influence on local variations of realistically initialized predictions is not yet understood. We here evaluate a series of medium-range (up to ~ 10 days) coupled atmosphere-ocean predictions by a coupled model with different horizontal resolutions. Observational SST, surface wind stress, heat flux, and pressure data showed that representation of temporally and spatially local variations was improved by resolving fine-scale SST variations around the initialized coarse-scale SST front fluctuations of TIWs. Our study thus demonstrates the advantage of using high-resolution coupled models for medium-range predictions. In addition, analysis of TIW energetics showed two dominant sources of energy to anticyclonic eddies: barotropic instability between equatorial zonal currents and baroclinic instability due to intense density fronts. In turn, the eddy circulation strengthened both instabilities in the resolved simulations. This revealed feedback process refines our understanding of the generation mechanisms of TIWs.

Sea level extremes and compounding marine heatwaves in coastal Indonesia.

Low-lying island nations like Indonesia are vulnerable to sea level Height EXtremes (HEXs). When compounded by marine heatwaves, HEXs have larger ecological and societal impact. Here we combine observations with model simulations, to investigate the HEXs and Compound Height-Heat Extremes (CHHEXs) along the Indian Ocean coast of Indonesia in recent decades. We find that anthropogenic sea level rise combined with decadal climate variability causes increased occurrence of HEXs during 2010-2017. Both HEXs and CHHEXs are driven by equatorial westerly and longshore northwesterly wind anomalies. For most HEXs, which occur during December-March, downwelling favorable northwest monsoon winds are enhanced but enhanced vertical mixing limits surface warming. For most CHHEXs, wind anomalies associated with a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and co-occurring La Niña weaken the southeasterlies and cooling from coastal upwelling during May-June and November-December. Our findings emphasize the important interplay between anthropogenic warming and climate variability in affecting regional extremes.

Mechanisms of asymmetry in sea surface temperature anomalies associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole revealed by closed heat budget.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is an interannual climate mode of the tropical Indian Ocean. Although it is known that negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern pole during the positive IOD are stronger than positive SST anomalies during the negative IOD, no consensus has been reached on the relative importance of various mechanisms that contribute to this asymmetry. Based on a closed mixed layer heat budget analysis using a regional ocean model, here we show for the first time that the vertical mixing plays an important role in causing such asymmetry in SST anomalies in addition to the contributions from the nonlinear advection and the thermocline feedback proposed by previous studies. A decomposition of the vertical mixing term indicates that nonlinearity in the anomalous vertical temperature gradient associated with subsurface temperature anomalies and anomalous vertical mixing coefficients is the main driver of such asymmetry. Such variations in subsurface temperature are induced by the anomalous southeasterly trade winds along the Indonesian coast that modulate the thermocline depth through coastal upwelling/downwelling. Thus, the thermocline feedback contributes to the SST asymmetry not through the vertical advection as previously suggested, but via the vertical mixing.

Surface frontogenesis by surface heat fluxes in the upstream Kuroshio Extension region.

Western boundary currents bring warm tropical water poleward and eastward and are characterized by a sharp sea surface temperature (SST) front on the poleward edge of the current as it extends into the interior basin. One of the most prominent such front is associated with the Kuroshio Extension (KE) as it extends east of Japan ("upstream KE"). Large latent and sensible heat fluxes that warm the atmosphere and cool the ocean project this front into the atmosphere, thereby affecting weather and climate both locally and remotely. While one might assume that these larger surface heat fluxes on the equatorward side would tend to damp the SST front, here we present observational evidence that the surface heat loss actually strengthens the front during October-April in monthly climatology and about 87% of months from October to January during the 2004/05-2014/15 period, although the percentage lowers to about 38% for February-April of the same period, suggesting some temporal/data dependency in the analysis. The key to understanding this counterintuitive result for frontogenesis is that the effective heat capacity of the surface water depends on mixed layer thickness. SSTs are more (less) sensitive to surface heat fluxes in regions with shallow (deep) mixed layer.

Steady State Ocean Response to Wind Forcing in Extratropical Frontal Regions.

In regions of strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients, the surface "geostrophic" currents have a vertical shear aligned with the surface density front defined by the temperature. This surface geostrophic ("thermal wind") shear can balance a portion of the surface wind stress, altering the classic Ekman response to wind forcing. Here we show that these frontal effects cannot be ignored in the Tropics or in strong frontal regions in the extratropics, such as found in coastal regions and in western boundary currents of all basins. Frontal effects also dominate the classic Ekman response in the regions of both hemispheres where Trade winds change to westerlies. Implications for vertical motion and global heat transport are discussed.