Cardiovascular Risk Estimation Is Suboptimal in People With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Established cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction functions may not accurately predict CVD risk in people with HIV. We assessed the performance of 3 CVD risk prediction functions in 2 HIV cohorts. METHODS AND RESULTS: CVD risk scores were calculated in the Mass General Brigham and Kaiser Permanente Northern California HIV cohorts, using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association atherosclerotic CVD function, the FHS (Framingham Heart Study) hard coronary heart disease function and the Framingham Heart Study hard CVD function. Outcomes were myocardial infarction or coronary death for FHS hard coronary heart disease function; and myocardial infarction, stroke, or coronary death for American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function. We calculated regression coefficients and assessed discrimination and calibration by sex; predicted to observed risk of outcome was also compared. In the combined cohort of 9412, 158 (1.7%) had a coronary heart disease event, and 309 (3.3%) had a CVD event. Among women, CVD risk was generally underestimated by all 3 risk functions. Among men, CVD risk was underestimated by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association and FHS hard CVD function, but overestimated by the FHS hard coronary heart disease function. Calibration was poor for women using the FHS hard CVD function and for men using all functions. Discrimination in all functions was good for women (c-statistics ranging from 0.78 to 0.90) and moderate for men (c-statistics ranging from 0.71 to 0.72). CONCLUSIONS: Established CVD risk prediction functions generally underestimate risk in people with HIV. Differences in model performance by sex underscore the need for both HIV-specific and sex-specific functions. Development of CVD risk prediction models tailored to HIV will enhance care for aging people with HIV.

Precision Phenotyping for Curating Research Cohorts of Patients with Post-Acute Sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) as a Diagnosis of Exclusion.

Scalable identification of patients with the post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) is challenging due to a lack of reproducible precision phenotyping algorithms and the suboptimal accuracy, demographic biases, and underestimation of the PASC diagnosis code (ICD-10 U09.9). In a retrospective case-control study, we developed a precision phenotyping algorithm for identifying research cohorts of PASC patients, defined as a diagnosis of exclusion. We used longitudinal electronic health records (EHR) data from over 295 thousand patients from 14 hospitals and 20 community health centers in Massachusetts. The algorithm employs an attention mechanism to exclude sequelae that prior conditions can explain. We performed independent chart reviews to tune and validate our precision phenotyping algorithm. Our PASC phenotyping algorithm improves precision and prevalence estimation and reduces bias in identifying Long COVID patients compared to the U09.9 diagnosis code. Our algorithm identified a PASC research cohort of over 24 thousand patients (compared to about 6 thousand when using the U09.9 diagnosis code), with a 79.9 percent precision (compared to 77.8 percent from the U09.9 diagnosis code). Our estimated prevalence of PASC was 22.8 percent, which is close to the national estimates for the region. We also provide an in-depth analysis outlining the clinical attributes, encompassing identified lingering effects by organ, comorbidity profiles, and temporal differences in the risk of PASC. The PASC phenotyping method presented in this study boasts superior precision, accurately gauges the prevalence of PASC without underestimating it, and exhibits less bias in pinpointing Long COVID patients. The PASC cohort derived from our algorithm will serve as a springboard for delving into Long COVID's genetic, metabolomic, and clinical intricacies, surmounting the constraints of recent PASC cohort studies, which were hampered by their limited size and available outcome data.

Coronary Microcirculatory Dysfunction in People With HIV and Its Association With Antiretroviral Therapy.

BACKGROUND: HIV infection and abacavir-containing antiretroviral regimens are associated with vascular endothelial dysfunction and increased cardiovascular risk. Positron emission tomography (PET)-derived myocardial blood flow reserve (MBFR), the ratio of vasodilator stress to rest myocardial blood flow, is a well-validated measure of coronary microvascular health and marker of cardiovascular risk. Our objective was to compare MBFR among people with HIV (PWH) with matched non-HIV controls and to assess whether switching from dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir to the non-abacavir regimen bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir alafenamide (TAF) would improve MBFR. METHODS AND RESULTS: Thirty-seven PWH were 1:2 matched on cardiovascular risk factors to 75 people without HIV, and MBFR corrected for differences in resting hemodynamics was compared in a cross-sectional design. PWH were majority men (68%) with a mean age of 56 years. Mean stress myocardial blood flow (1.83 mL/min per g [95% CI, 1.68-1.98] versus 2.40 mL/min per g [95% CI, 2.25-2.54]; P<0.001) and MBFR (2.18 [95% CI, 1.96-2.40] versus 2.68 [95% CI, 2.47-2.89]; P=0.002) was significantly lower in PWH than in people without HIV. In a single-arm, multicenter trial, a subset of 25 PWH who were virologically suppressed on dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir underwent positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging at baseline and after switching to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF. MBFR was unchanged after switching to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF for a mean of 27 weeks (MBFR, 2.34 to 2.29; P=0.61), except in PWH with impaired MBFR at baseline (<2.00; N=6) in whom MBFR increased from 1.58 to 2.02 (P=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: PWH had reduced coronary microvascular function compared with controls without HIV. Coronary microvascular function did not improve after switching from dolutegravir/lamivudine/abacavir to bictegravir/emtricitabine/TAF. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT03656783.

Prevalence and control of hypertension in a high HIV-prevalence setting, insights from a population based study in Botswana.

In a population-based representative sample of adults residing in 22 communities in Botswana, a southern African country with high HIV prevalence, 1 in 4 individuals had high blood pressure. High blood pressure was less prevalent in adults with HIV than without HIV. Sixty percent of persons with high blood pressure had not previously been diagnosed. Among individuals with a prior diagnosis of high blood pressure who reported being prescribed anti-hypertension medications, almost half had elevated blood pressure, irrespective of HIV-status. One-third of adults in this setting (mainly men) declined free non-invasive blood pressure assessments in their households. In conclusion, our study highlights alarmingly high hypertension rates in the community, with low levels of awareness and control, emphasizing the urgent need for community level BP screening and active management to reach recommended targets.

Cognitive concerns are a risk factor for mortality in people with HIV and coronavirus disease 2019.

BACKGROUND: Data supporting dementia as a risk factor for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality relied on ICD-10 codes, yet nearly 40% of individuals with probable dementia lack a formal diagnosis. Dementia coding is not well established for people with HIV (PWH), and its reliance may affect risk assessment. METHODS: This retrospective cohort analysis of PWH with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR positivity includes comparisons to people without HIV (PWoH), matched by age, sex, race, and zipcode. Primary exposures were dementia diagnosis, by International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes, and cognitive concerns, defined as possible cognitive impairment up to 12 months before COVID-19 diagnosis after clinical review of notes from the electronic health record. Logistic regression models assessed the effect of dementia and cognitive concerns on odds of death [odds ratio (OR); 95% CI (95% confidence interval)]; models adjusted for VACS Index 2.0. RESULTS: Sixty-four PWH were identified out of 14 129 patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection and matched to 463 PWoH. Compared with PWoH, PWH had a higher prevalence of dementia (15.6% vs. 6%, P  = 0.01) and cognitive concerns (21.9% vs. 15.8%, P  = 0.04). Death was more frequent in PWH ( P  < 0.01). Adjusted for VACS Index 2.0, dementia [2.4 (1.0-5.8), P  = 0.05] and cognitive concerns [2.4 (1.1-5.3), P  = 0.03] were associated with increased odds of death. In PWH, the association between cognitive concern and death trended towards statistical significance [3.92 (0.81-20.19), P  = 0.09]; there was no association with dementia. CONCLUSION: Cognitive status assessments are important for care in COVID-19, especially among PWH. Larger studies should validate findings and determine long-term COVID-19 consequences in PWH with preexisting cognitive deficits.

Distinguishing Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Persistence and Reinfection: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) reinfection is poorly understood, partly because few studies have systematically applied genomic analysis to distinguish reinfection from persistent RNA detection related to initial infection. We aimed to evaluate the characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection and persistent RNA detection using independent genomic, clinical, and laboratory assessments. METHODS: All individuals at a large academic medical center who underwent a SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) ≥45 days after an initial positive test, with both tests between 14 March and 30 December 2020, were analyzed for potential reinfection. Inclusion criteria required having ≥2 positive NAATs collected ≥45 days apart with a cycle threshold (Ct) value <35 at repeat testing. For each included subject, likelihood of reinfection was assessed by viral genomic analysis of all available specimens with a Ct value <35, structured Ct trajectory criteria, and case-by-case review by infectious diseases physicians. RESULTS: Among 1569 individuals with repeat SARS-CoV-2 testing ≥45 days after an initial positive NAAT, 65 (4%) met cohort inclusion criteria. Viral genomic analysis characterized mutations present and was successful for 14/65 (22%) subjects. Six subjects had genomically supported reinfection, and 8 subjects had genomically supported persistent RNA detection. Compared to viral genomic analysis, clinical and laboratory assessments correctly distinguished reinfection from persistent RNA detection in 12/14 (86%) subjects but missed 2/6 (33%) genomically supported reinfections. CONCLUSIONS: Despite good overall concordance with viral genomic analysis, clinical and Ct value-based assessments failed to identify 33% of genomically supported reinfections. Scaling-up genomic analysis for clinical use would improve detection of SARS-CoV-2 reinfections.

Discharge to post-acute care and other predictors of prolonged length of stay during the initial COVID-19 surge: a single site analysis.

BACKGROUND: During the initial surge of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), health-care utilization fluctuated dramatically, straining acute hospital capacity across the USA and potentially contributing to excess mortality. METHODS: This was an observational retrospective study of patients with COVID-19 admitted to a large US urban academic medical center during a 12-week COVID-19 surge in the Spring of 2020. We describe patterns in length of stay (LOS) over time. Our outcome of interest was prolonged LOS (PLOS), which we defined as 7 or more days. We performed univariate analyses of patient characteristics, clinical outcomes and discharge disposition to evaluate the association of each variable with PLOS and developed a final multivariate model via backward elimination, wherein all variables with a P-value above 0.05 were eliminated in a stepwise fashion. RESULTS: The cohort included 1366 patients, of whom 13% died and 29% were readmitted within 30 days. The LOS (mean: 12.6) fell over time (P < 0.0001). Predictors of PLOS included discharge to a post-acute care (PAC) facility (odds ratio [OR]: 11.9, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.6-54.0), uninsured status (OR 3.2, CI 1.1-9.1) and requiring intensive care and intubation (OR 18.4, CI 11.5-29.6). Patients had a higher readmission rate if discharged to PAC facilities (40%) or home with home health agency (HHA) services (38%) as compared to patients discharged home without HHA services (26%) (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during a US COVID-19 surge had a PLOS and high readmission rate. Lack of insurance, an intensive care unit stay and a decision to discharge to a PAC facility were associated with a PLOS. Efforts to decrease LOS and optimize hospital capacity during COVID-19 surges may benefit from focusing on increasing PAC and HHA capacity and resources.

Evaluating the Cardiovascular Risk in an Aging Population of People With HIV: The Impact of Hepatitis C Virus Coinfection.

Background People with HIV (PWH) are at an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with an unknown added impact of hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection. We aimed to identify whether HCV coinfection increases the risk of type 1 myocardial infarction (T1MI) and if the risk differs by age. Methods and Results We used data from NA-ACCORD (North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design) from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2017, PWH (aged 40-79 years) who had initiated antiretroviral therapy. The primary outcome was an adjudicated T1MI event. Those who started direct-acting HCV antivirals were censored at the time of initiation. Crude incidence rates per 1000 person-years were calculated for T1MI by calendar time. Discrete time-to-event analyses with complementary log-log models were used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for T1MI among those with and without HCV. Among 23 361 PWH, 4677 (20%) had HCV. There were 89 (1.9%) T1MIs among PWH with HCV and 314 (1.7%) among PWH without HCV. HCV was not associated with increased T1MI risk in PWH (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.74-1.30]). However, the risk of T1MI increased with age and was amplified in those with HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.38-2.48]) compared with those without HCV (adjusted hazard ratio per 10-year increase in age,1.30 [95% CI, 1.13-1.50]; P<0.001, test of interaction). Conclusions HCV coinfection was not significantly associated with increased T1MI risk; however, the risk of T1MI with increasing age was greater in those with HCV compared with those without, and HCV status should be considered when assessing CVD risk in aging PWH.

Creation of a Multidisciplinary Drug Use Endocarditis Treatment (DUET) Team: Initial Patient Characteristics, Outcomes, and Future Directions.

BACKGROUND: Consensus guidelines recommend multidisciplinary models to manage infective endocarditis, yet often do not address the unique challenges of treating people with drug use-associated infective endocarditis (DUA-IE). Our center is among the first to convene a Drug Use Endocarditis Treatment (DUET) team composed of specialists from Infectious Disease, Cardiothoracic Surgery, Cardiology, and Addiction Medicine. METHODS: The objective of this study was to describe the demographics, infectious characteristics, and clinical outcomes of the first cohort of patients cared for by the DUET team. This was a retrospective chart review of patients referred to the DUET team between August 2018 and May 2020 with DUA-IE. RESULTS: Fifty-seven patients were presented to the DUET team between August 2018 and May 2020. The cohort was young, with a median age of 35, and injected primarily opioids (82.5% heroin/fentanyl), cocaine (52.6%), and methamphetamine (15.8%). Overall, 14 individuals (24.6%) received cardiac surgery, and the remainder (75.4%) were managed with antimicrobial therapy alone. Nearly 65% of individuals were discharged on medication for opioid use disorder, though less than half (36.8%) were discharged with naloxone and only 1 patient was initiated on HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis. Overall, the cohort had a high rate of readmission (42.1%) within 90 days of discharge. CONCLUSIONS: Multidisciplinary care models such as the DUET team can help integrate nuanced decision-making from numerous subspecialties. They can also increase the uptake of addiction medicine and harm reduction tools, but further efforts are needed to integrate harm reduction strategies and improve follow-up in future iterations of the DUET team model.

How health systems can adapt to a population ageing with HIV and comorbid disease.

As people age with HIV, their needs increase beyond solely managing HIV care. Ageing people with HIV, defined as people with HIV who are 50 years or older, face increased risk of both age-regulated comorbidities and ageing-related issues. Globally, health-care systems have struggled to meet these changing needs of ageing people with HIV. We argue that health systems need to rethink care strategies to meet the growing needs of this population and propose models of care that meet these needs using the WHO health system building blocks. We focus on care provision for ageing people with HIV in the three different funding mechanisms: President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief and Global Fund funded nations, the USA, and single-payer government health-care systems. Although our categorisation is necessarily incomplete, our efforts provide a valuable contribution to the debate on health systems strengthening as the need for integrated, people-centred, health services increase.

Understanding the Link Between Obesity and Severe COVID-19 Outcomes: Causal Mediation by Systemic Inflammatory Response.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is an established risk factor for severe COVID-19 outcomes. The mechanistic underpinnings of this association are not well-understood. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the mediating role of systemic inflammation in obesity-associated COVID-19 outcomes. METHODS: This hospital-based, observational study included 3828 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients who were hospitalized February to May 2020 at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Columbia University Irving Medical Center/New York Presbyterian Hospital (CUIMC/NYP). We use mediation analysis to evaluate whether peak inflammatory biomarkers (C-reactive protein [CRP], erythrocyte sedimentation rate [ESR], D-dimer, ferritin, white blood cell count and interleukin-6) are in the causal pathway between obesity (BMI ≥ 30) and mechanical ventilation or death within 28 days of presentation to care. RESULTS: In the MGH cohort (n = 1202), obesity was associated with greater likelihood of ventilation or death (OR = 1.73; 95% CI = [1.25, 2.41]; P = 0.001) and higher peak CRP (P < 0.001) compared with nonobese patients. The estimated proportion of the association between obesity and ventilation or death mediated by CRP was 0.49 (P < 0.001). Evidence of mediation was more pronounced in patients < 65 years (proportion mediated = 0.52 [P < 0.001] vs 0.44 [P = 0.180]). Findings were more moderate but consistent for peak ESR. Mediation by other inflammatory markers was not supported. Results were replicated in CUIMC/NYP cohort (n = 2626). CONCLUSION: Findings support systemic inflammatory pathways in obesity-associated severe COVID-19 disease, particularly in patients < 65 years, captured by CRP and ESR. Contextualized in clinical trial findings, these results reveal therapeutic opportunity to target systemic inflammatory pathways and monitor interventions in high-risk subgroups and particularly obese patients.

Fecal Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) RNA Is Associated With Decreased Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Survival.

The clinical significance of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS CoV-2) RNA in stool remains uncertain. We found that extrapulmonary dissemination of infection to the gastrointestinal tract, assessed by the presence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool, is associated with decreased coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) survival. Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in stool may have utility for clinical risk assessment.

Effect modification by age of the association between obstructive lung diseases, smoking, and COVID-19 severity.

INTRODUCTION: Obstructive lung diseases (asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD)) and smoking are associated with greater risk of respiratory infections and hospitalisations, but conflicting data exist regarding their association with severity of COVID-19, and few studies have evaluated whether these associations differ by age. OBJECTIVES: To examine the associations between asthma, COPD and smoking on the severity of COVID-19 among a cohort of hospitalised patients, and to test for effect modification by age. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of electronic health record data of patients admitted to Massachusetts General Hospital, assigning the maximal WHO Clinical Progression Scale score for each patient during the first 28 days following hospital admission. Using ordered logistic regression, we measured the association between maximal severity score and asthma, COPD and smoking and their interaction with age. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Among 1391 patients hospitalised with COVID-19, we found an increased risk of severe disease among patients with COPD and prior smoking, independent of age. We also found evidence of effect modification by age with asthma and current smoking; in particular, asthma was associated with decreased COVID-19 severity among older adults, and current smoking was associated with decreased severity among younger patients. CONCLUSIONS: This cohort study identifies age as a modifying factor for the association between asthma and smoking on severity of COVID-19. Our findings highlight the complexities of determining risk factors for COVID-19 severity, and suggest that the effect of risk factors may vary across the age spectrum.

Assessing Cardiovascular Risk in People Living with HIV: Current Tools and Limitations.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To provide the current state of the development and application of cardiovascular disease (CVD) prediction tools in people living with HIV (PLWH). RECENT FINDINGS: Several risk prediction models developed on the general population are available to predict CVD risk, the most notable being the US-based pooled cohort equations (PCE), the Framingham risk functions, and the Europe-based SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation). In validation studies in cohorts of PLWH, these models generally underestimate CVD risk, especially in individuals who are younger, women, Black race, or predicted to be at low/intermediate risk. An HIV-specific CVD prediction model, the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, is available, but its performance is modest, especially in US-based cohorts. Enhancing CVD prediction with novel biomarkers of inflammation or coronary artery calcification is of interest but has not yet been evaluated in PLWH. Finally, studies on CVD risk prediction are lacking in diverse PLWH globally. While available risk models for CVD prediction in PLWH remain suboptimal, clinicians should remain vigilant of higher CVD risk in this population and should use any of these risk scores for risk stratification to guide preventive interventions. Focus on established traditional risk factors such as smoking remains critical in PLWH. Risk prediction functions tailored to PLWH in diverse settings will enhance clinicians' ability to deliver optimal preventive care.

Treated HIV Infection and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

Background Although ≈70% of the world's population of people living with HIV reside in sub-Saharan Africa, there are minimal prospective data on the contributions of HIV infection to atherosclerosis in the region. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of people living with HIV on antiretroviral therapy >40 years of age in rural Uganda, along with population-based comparators not infected with HIV. We collected data on cardiovascular disease risk factors and carotid ultrasound measurements annually. We fitted linear mixed effects models, adjusted for cardiovascular disease risk factors, to estimate the association between HIV serostatus and progression of carotid intima media thickness (cIMT). We enrolled 155 people living with HIV and 154 individuals not infected with HIV and collected cIMT images at 1045 visits during a median of 4 annual visits per participant (interquartile range 3-4, range 1-5). Age (median 50.9 years) and sex (49% female) were similar by HIV serostatus. At enrollment, there was no difference in mean cIMT by HIV serostatus (0.665 versus 0.680 mm, P=0.15). In multivariable models, increasing age, blood pressure, and non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol were associated with greater cIMT (P<0.05), however change in cIMT per year was also no different by HIV serostatus (0.004 mm/year for HIV negative [95% CI, 0.001-0.007 mm], 0.006 mm/year for people living with HIV [95% CI, 0.003-0.008 mm], HIV×time interaction P=0.25). Conclusions In rural Uganda, treated HIV infection was not associated with faster cIMT progression. These results do not support classification of treated HIV infection as a risk factor for subclinical atherosclerosis progression in rural sub-Saharan Africa. Registration URL: https://www.ClinicalTrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02445079.

Prolonged Intubation in Patients With Prior Cerebrovascular Disease and COVID-19.

Objectives: Patients with comorbidities are at increased risk for poor outcomes in COVID-19, yet data on patients with prior neurological disease remains limited. Our objective was to determine the odds of critical illness and duration of mechanical ventilation in patients with prior cerebrovascular disease and COVID-19. Methods: A observational study of 1,128 consecutive adult patients admitted to an academic center in Boston, Massachusetts, and diagnosed with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. We tested the association between prior cerebrovascular disease and critical illness, defined as mechanical ventilation (MV) or death by day 28, using logistic regression with inverse probability weighting of the propensity score. Among intubated patients, we estimated the cumulative incidence of successful extubation without death over 45 days using competing risk analysis. Results: Of the 1,128 adults with COVID-19, 350 (36%) were critically ill by day 28. The median age of patients was 59 years (SD: 18 years) and 640 (57%) were men. As of June 2nd, 2020, 127 (11%) patients had died. A total of 177 patients (16%) had a prior cerebrovascular disease. Prior cerebrovascular disease was significantly associated with critical illness (OR = 1.54, 95% CI = 1.14-2.07), lower rate of successful extubation (cause-specific HR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.33-0.98), and increased duration of intubation (restricted mean time difference = 4.02 days, 95% CI = 0.34-10.92) compared to patients without cerebrovascular disease. Interpretation: Prior cerebrovascular disease adversely affects COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized patients. Further study is required to determine if this subpopulation requires closer monitoring for disease progression during COVID-19.