Can healthy ageing moderate the effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia? A modelling study.

BACKGROUND:  Population ageing will accelerate rapidly in Mongolia in the coming decades. We explore whether this is likely to have deleterious effects on economic growth and health spending trends and whether any adverse consequences might be moderated by ensuring better health among the older population. METHODS:  Fixed-effects models are used to estimate the relationship between the size of the older working-age population (55-69 years) and economic growth from 2020 to 2100 and to simulate how growth is modified by better health among the older working-age population, as measured by a 5% improvement in years lived with disability. We next use 2017 data on per capita health spending by age from the National Health Insurance Fund to project how population ageing will influence public health spending from 2020 to 2060 and how this relationship may change if the older population (≥ 60 years) ages in better or worse health than currently. RESULTS:  The projected increase in the share of the population aged 55-69 years is associated with a 4.1% slowdown in per-person gross domestic product (GDP) growth between 2020 and 2050 and a 5.2% slowdown from 2020 to 2100. However, a 5% reduction in disability rates among the older population offsets these effects and adds around 0.2% to annual per-person GDP growth in 2020, rising to nearly 0.4% per year by 2080. Baseline projections indicate that population ageing will increase public health spending as a share of GDP by 1.35 percentage points from 2020 to 2060; this will occur slowly, adding approximately 0.03 percentage points to the share of GDP annually. Poorer health among the older population (aged ≥ 60 years) would see population ageing add an additional 0.17 percentage points above baseline estimates, but healthy ageing would lower baseline projections by 0.18 percentage points, corresponding to potential savings of just over US$ 46 million per year by 2060. CONCLUSIONS:  Good health at older ages could moderate the potentially negative effects of population ageing on economic growth and health spending trends in Mongolia. Continued investment in the health of older people will improve quality of life, while also enhancing the sustainability of public budgets.

Other considerations than: how much will universal health coverage cost?

Globally, countries have agreed to pursue the progressive realization of universal health coverage (UHC) and there is now a high level of political commitment to providing universal coverage of essential health services while ensuring that individuals are financially protected against high health spending. The aim of this paper is to help policy-makers think through the progressive realization of UHC. First, the pitfalls of applying global normative expenditure targets in estimating the national revenue required for UHC are discussed. Then, several recommendations on estimating national revenue are made by moving beyond the question of how much UHC will cost and focusing instead on the national health-care reforms and policy choices needed to progress towards UHC. In particular, costing exercises are recommended as a tool for comparing different service delivery options and investment in data infrastructure is recommended for improving the information needed to identify the best policies. These recommendations are intended to assist health policy-makers and international and national agencies who are developing country plans for the progressive realization of UHC.

À l'échelle mondiale, les pays sont convenus de poursuivre la réalisation progressive de la couverture sanitaire universelle, et l'on observe désormais un fort niveau d'engagement politique en faveur de la couverture universelle des services de santé essentiels en veillant à ce que les individus soient financièrement à l'abri de toute dépense de santé élevée. L'objectif de cet article est d'aider les responsables politiques à effectuer un examen minutieux en vue de la réalisation progressive de la couverture sanitaire universelle. Pour commencer, nous examinons les écueils liés à l'application d'objectifs de dépenses normatifs mondiaux au moment d'estimer le revenu national requis pour la couverture sanitaire universelle. Nous formulons ensuite plusieurs recommandations concernant l'estimation du revenu national, en dépassant la question du coût de la couverture sanitaire universelle pour nous concentrer sur les réformes nationales en matière de soins de santé et sur les choix politiques nécessaires pour faire progresser la couverture sanitaire universelle. Nous recommandons notamment de procéder à des exercices d'établissement des coûts pour comparer différentes options de prestation de services et d'investir dans des infrastructures de données pour améliorer les informations nécessaires à l'identification des meilleures politiques. Ces recommandations visent à aider les responsables des politiques de santé et les organismes internationaux et nationaux qui élaborent des plans nationaux pour la réalisation progressive de la couverture sanitaire universelle.

A nivel mundial, los países han acordado procurar la realización progresiva de la cobertura sanitaria universal (universal health coverage, UHC) y ahora existe un alto nivel de compromiso político para proporcionar una cobertura universal de los servicios sanitarios esenciales, al tiempo que se garantiza la protección financiera de las personas frente a los elevados gastos sanitarios. El objetivo de este documento es ayudar a los responsables de formular políticas a pensar en la realización progresiva de la UHC. Primero, se discuten las trampas en la aplicación de las metas globales de gastos normativos al estimar los ingresos nacionales requeridos para la UHC. Luego, se hacen varias recomendaciones sobre la estimación de los ingresos nacionales al ir más allá de la cuestión de cuánto costará la UHC y enfocarse en cambio en las reformas nacionales de salud y en las opciones de políticas necesarias para progresar hacia la UHC. En particular, se recomiendan ejercicios de cálculo de costos como herramienta para comparar diferentes opciones de prestación de servicios y se recomienda invertir en infraestructura de datos para mejorar la información necesaria con el fin de identificar las mejores políticas. Estas recomendaciones tienen por objeto ayudar a los responsables de formular políticas de salud y a los organismos internacionales y nacionales que están elaborando planes nacionales para la realización progresiva de la UHC.