A dynamic model to predict early occurrence of acute kidney injury in ICU hospitalized cirrhotic patients: a MIMIC database analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a tool for predicting the early occurrence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in ICU hospitalized cirrhotic patients. METHODS: Eligible patients with cirrhosis were identified from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care database. Demographic data, laboratory examinations, and interventions were obtained. After splitting the population into training and validation cohorts, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression model was used to select factors and construct the dynamic online nomogram. Calibration and discrimination were used to assess nomogram performance, and clinical utility was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: A total of 1254 patients were included in the analysis, and 745 developed AKI. The mean arterial pressure, white blood cell count, total bilirubin level, Glasgow Coma Score, creatinine, heart rate, platelet count and albumin level were identified as predictors of AKI. The developed model had a good ability to differentiate AKI from non-AKI, with AUCs of 0.797 and 0.750 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Moreover, the nomogram model showed good calibration. DCA showed that the nomogram had a superior overall net benefit within wide and practical ranges of threshold probabilities. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic online nomogram can be an easy-to-use tool for predicting the early occurrence of AKI in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

The burden and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmission in patients with acute liver failure: a national representative database study.

BACKGROUND: Liver diseases were significant source of early readmission burden. This study aimed to evaluate the 30-day unplanned readmission rates, causes of readmissions, readmission costs, and predictors of readmission in patients with acute liver failure (ALF). METHODS: Patients admitted for ALF from 2019 National Readmission Database were enrolled. Weighted multivariable logistic regression models were applied and based on Directed Acyclic Graphs. Incidence, causes, cost, and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmissions were identified. RESULTS: A total of 3,281 patients with ALF were enrolled, of whom 600 (18.3%) were readmitted within 30 days. The mean time from discharge to early readmission was 12.6 days. The average hospital cost and charge of readmission were $19,629 and $86,228, respectively. The readmissions were mainly due to liver-related events (26.6%), followed by infection (20.9%). The predictive factors independently associated with readmissions were age, male sex (OR 1.227, 95% CI 1.023-1.472; P = 0.028), renal failure (OR 1.401, 95% CI 1.139-1.723; P = 0.001), diabetes with chronic complications (OR 1.327, 95% CI 1.053-1.672; P = 0.017), complicated hypertension (OR 1.436, 95% CI 1.111-1.857; P = 0.006), peritoneal drainage (OR 1.600, 95% CI 1.092-2.345; P = 0.016), etc. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ALF are at relatively high risk of early readmission, which imposes a heavy medical and economic burden on society. We need to increase the emphasis placed on early readmission of patients with ALF and establish clinical strategies for their management.

Turn-key Kerr soliton generation and tunable microwave synthesizer in dual-mode Si3N4 microresonators.

This study investigates the thermal compensation mechanism in dual-mode Si3N4 microresonators that demonstrates the ease of generation of single-solitons with nearly octave-wide spectral bandwidth. The deterministic creation of soliton frequency combs is achieved by merely switching the wavelength of a tunable laser or a semiconductor diode laser in a single step. The pump frequency detuning range that can sustain the soliton state is 30 gigahertz (GHz), which is approximately 100 times the resonance linewidth. Interestingly, these dual-mode resonators also support the coexistence of primary combs and solitons, enabling their utilization as functional microwave synthesizers. Furthermore, these resonators readily facilitate the generation of diverse multi-solitons and soliton crystals. This work presents a simplified system to access high-performance and versatile Kerr solitons, with wide-ranging applications in optical metrology, microwave photonics, and LiDAR.

Prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.

Our study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of neutrophil count to albumin ratio (NAR) in predicting short-term mortality of patients with decompensated cirrhosis (DC). A total of 623 DC patients were recruited from a retrospective observational cohort study. They were admitted to our hospital from January 2014 to December 2015. NAR of each patient was calculated and analyzed for the association with 90-day liver transplantation-free (LT-free) outcome. The performance of NAR and the integrated model were tested by a receiver-operator curve (ROC) and C-index. The 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with DC was 10.6%. NAR was significantly higher in 90-day non-survivors than in survivors (The median: 1.73 vs 0.76, P < 0.001). A threshold of 1.40 of NAR differentiated patients with a high risk of death (27.45%) from those with a low risk (5.11%). By multivariate analysis, high NAR was independently associated with poor short-term prognosis (high group: 5.07 (2.78, 9.22)). NAR alone had an area under the ROC curve of 0.794 and C-index of 0.7789 (0.7287, 0.8291) in predicting 90-day mortality. The integrated MELD-NAR (iMELD) model had a higher area under the ROC (0.872) and C-index (0.8558 (0.8122, 0.8994)) than the original MELD in predicting 90-day mortality. NAR can be used as an independent predictor of poor outcomes for patients with DC during short-term follow-up.

The burden of liver cirrhosis and underlying etiologies: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Liver cirrhosis is a major health concern. Herein, we aimed to estimate the incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis caused by specific etiologies for 204 countries and territories. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The data were retrieved from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized death rate, and estimated annual percentage changes were used to estimate the trends in incidence, prevalence, and mortality of liver cirrhosis by sex, region, country, and etiology between 2009 and 2019. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2019, the incident cases of liver cirrhosis increased by 16.7%, from 1.8 million (95% uncertainty interval: 1.5-2.1) to 2.1 million (1.7-2.5), and the prevalent cases increased from 1378.3 million (1275.1-1498.8) to 1691.0 million (1560.9-1845.5). Liver cirrhosis contributed to nearly 1.5 million (1.4-1.6) deaths in 2019, nearly 0.2 million more than in 2009. However, the age-standardized death rate fell from 20.71 (19.79-21.65) per 100,000 population in 2009 to 18.00 (16.80-19.31) per 100,000 population in 2019. In terms of sex, males showed higher ASIR, ASPR, and age-standardized death rate than females. Among the etiologies, the ASIR and ASPR of NAFLD increased markedly, and there was also a modest increase in ASIR and ASPR for HCV and alcohol use. In contrast, the ASIR and ASPR of HBV decreased considerably. CONCLUSIONS: Our finding suggests an increasing burden of liver cirrhosis worldwide but a declining attributed death. A high prevalence and still rising trend of NAFLD and alcohol use-etiology were found in patients with cirrhosis globally, although variation was found between regions/countries. These data indicate that efforts to reduce the associated burden need to be improved.

Acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children: A combination of factors.

On 5 April 2022, the World Health Organization was notified of 10 cases of severe acute hepatitis of unknown etiology in children under 10 years of age in the United Kingdom. Although the exact cause of a proportion of pediatric acute hepatitis and acute liver failure cases was unclear, the above event has caused widespread concern worldwide. As of 14 September 2022, approximately 1,296 probable cases of acute hepatitis of unknown etiology have been reported from 37 countries/regions, of which approximately 55 required or received liver transplantation and 29 died. Although the etiology of acute hepatitis of unknown origin in children remains unclear, many hypotheses have been proposed about the disease. Instead of individual factors such as "adenovirus infection," "SARS-CoV-2 related," and "Adeno-associated virus 2 with helper virus coinfection," it is more likely due to a combination of factors. Accordingly, there is an urgent need for more data and research to clarify the disease etiology. This review aims to provide a historical perspective of acute hepatitis of unknown etiology in children in the past decades and summarize the current hypothesis and evidence on this emerging disease.

Acute decompensation events differentially impact the risk of nosocomial infections and short-term outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

Aims: This research aimed to evaluate the influence of acute decompensation (AD) events upon admission on the subsequent risk of nosocomial infections (NIs) and the synergy between AD and the following NIs on the short-term outcome. Methods: A total of 419 hospitalized individuals with cirrhosis and AD participated in the current study. Various AD events at admission and outcomes in patients with or without NIs were compared. The logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models were designed for NIs development and liver transplant (LT)-free mortality at 28 and 90 days, respectively. Results: During hospitalization, 91 patients developed NIs. Notably, a higher proportion of patients with NIs had jaundice (52.7 vs. 30.5%; p < 0.001) and bacterial infections (37.4 vs. 20.7%; p = 0.001) at admission compared to patients without NIs, while a lower proportion suffered gastrointestinal hemorrhage (16.5 vs. 36.6%; p < 0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that jaundice was independently linked with the development of NIs (OR, 2.732; 95% CI: 1.104-6.762). The 28-day (16.5 vs. 7.3%; p = 0.008) and 90-day (27.5 vs. 15.9%; p = 0.011) LT-free mortality rates of patients with NIs were significantly higher than those without NIs. According to the Cox proportional hazards model, jaundice remained an independent risk factor for 90-day death (HR, 5.775; 95% CI: 1.217-27.397). The connection between total bilirubin and 90-day mortality was nonlinear, and a 6 mg/mL threshold was proposed. Conclusion: The types of AD events differentially predispose to risk of NIs. Presenting jaundice at admission is independently associated with NIs occurrence and increased 90-day mortality of patients with NIs. Antibiotic prophylaxis may benefit this specific subset of patients.

Delayed Clearance of Viral RNA in Sputum for Severity COVID-19 Patients with Initial High Viral Load.

Aim: To analyze the possible risk factors of delayed virus clearance in hospitalized patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods: Retrospective analysis of patients with COVID-19 admitted to the isolation wards from our hospital from 19th Jan 2020 to 18th March 2020. We were collected patient's data including demographic, epidemiologic, and clinical information, as well as laboratory and radiologic findings. The possible confounding risk factors for prolonged viral RNA shedding of COVID-19 during hospitalization were explored by univariate analysis and any variables with a p value less than 0.05 after univariate analysis were included in a subsequent multivariate logistic regression model analysis. Results: The 104 patients included 30 mild patients and 74 severe or critically ill patients. The median duration of viral RNA positivity in sputum was 11 days, and the longest duration of viral RNA positivity was 49 days after admission. Multivariate analysis shown that the used with darunavir/cobicistat treatment (odds ratio [OR]: 4.25, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25-14.42, p = 0.020), duration of fever (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.03-1.30, p = 0.015) and time to radiological improvement (OR: 1.14, 95% CI: 1.01-1.30, p = 0.033) were associated with delayed clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in sputum from COVID-19 patients. Then adjusted in the multivariate binary logistic regression analysis model in severe COVID-19 and found that critical COVID-19 patients (OR: 13.25, 95% CI: 1.45-12.07, p = 0.022), lower virus cycle threshold (CT) values of RT-PCR (OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93-0.99, p = 0.004) and used with darunavir/cobicistat treatment (OR: 8.44, 95% CI: 2.21-32.28, p = 0.022) were associated with delayed clearance of SARS-CoV-2 in sputum from COVID-19 patients. Conclude: Clearance of viral RNA in sputum was delayed in severe COVID-19 patients, especially with lower virus CT value. And antivirals with darunavir/cobicistat has little advantage in eliminating SARS-CoV-2.

Clinical Prediction Models for Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: A Technical Report.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is critical but challenging to predict the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). This study systematically summarized and evaluated the quality and performance of available clinical prediction models (CPMs). METHODS: A keyword search of articles on HBV-ACLF CPMs published in PubMed from January 1995 to April 2020 was performed. Both the quality and performance of the CPMs were assessed. RESULTS: Fifty-two CPMs were identified, of which 31 were HBV-ACLF specific. The modeling data were mostly derived from retrospective (83.87%) and single-center (96.77%) cohorts, with sample sizes ranging from 46 to 1,202. Three-month mortality was the most common endpoint. The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver consensus (51.92%) and Chinese Medical Association liver failure guidelines (40.38%) were commonly used for HBV-ACLF diagnosis. Serum bilirubin (67.74%), the international normalized ratio (54.84%), and hepatic encephalopathy (51.61%) were the most frequent variables used in models. Model discrimination was commonly evaluated (88.46%), but model calibration was seldom performed. The model for end-stage liver disease score was the most widely used (84.62%); however, varying performance was reported among the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial limitations lie in the quality of HBV-ACLF-specific CPMs. Disease severity of study populations may impact model performance. The clinical utility of CPMs in predicting short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF remains to be undefined.

Predictors of COVID-19 Infection: A Prevalence Study of Hospitalized Patients.

AIM: To find the predictors of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in hospitalized patients. METHODS: A prevalence study compared the characteristics of COVID-19 patients with non-COVID-19 patients from January 19, 2020, to February 18, 2020, during the COVID-19 outbreak. Laboratory test results and pulmonary chest imaging of confirmed COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients were collected by retrieving medical records in our center. RESULTS: 96 COVID-19 patients and 122 non-COVID-19 patients were enrolled in this study. COVID-19 patients were older (53 vs. 39; P < 0.001) and had higher body mass index (BMI) than non-COVID-19 group (24.21 ± 3.51 vs. 23.00 ± 3.27, P = 0.011); however, differences in gender were not observed between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis showed that exposure history (OR: 23.34, P < 0.001), rhinorrhea (odds radio (OR): 0.12, P = 0.006), alanine aminotransferase (ALT) (OR: 1.03, P = 0.049), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) (OR: 1.01, P = 0.020), lymphocyte (OR: 0.27, P = 0.007), and bilateral involvement on chest CT imaging (OR: 23.01, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for COVID-19. Moreover, bilateral involvement on chest CT imaging (AUC = 0.904, P < 0.001) had significantly higher AUC than others in predicting COVID-19. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure history, elevated ALT and LDH, absence of rhinorrhea, lymphopenia, and bilateral involvement on chest CT imaging provide robust evidence for the diagnosis of COVID-19, especially in resource-limited conditions where nucleic acid detection is not readily available.

Current epidemiological and clinical features of COVID-19; a global perspective from China.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and represents a potentially fatal disease of great global public health importance. As of March 26, 2020, the outbreak of COVID-19 has resulted in 462,801 confirmed cases and 20,839 deaths globally, which is more than those caused by SARS and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in 2003 and 2013, respectively. The epidemic has posed considerable challenges worldwide. Under a strict mechanism of massive prevention and control, China has seen a rapid decrease in new cases of coronavirus; however, the global situation remains serious. Additionally, the origin of COVID-19 has not been determined and no specific antiviral treatment or vaccine is currently available. Based on the published data, this review systematically discusses the etiology, epidemiology, clinical characteristics, and current intervention measures related to COVID-19 in the hope that it may provide a reference for future studies and aid in the prevention and control of the COVID-19 epidemic.