Screen time, phone usage, and social media usage: Before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Objective: Technology use has increased in the past several years, especially among younger generations. The COVID-19 pandemic drastically changed how people work, learn, and interact, with many utilizing technology for daily tasks and socializing. Methods: The current study investigated a sample of college students using a cross-sectional design to determine whether there was a change in how much time students spent on screens, phones, and social media. Results: Findings indicated that time on screens and phones was significantly higher during the pandemic; however, time spent on social media did not differ significantly. Conclusion: These findings suggest that students are spending more time working and socializing on their screens and phones, yet social media may not be the platform in which students are doing this. Future studies should further explore technology usage and whether these trends during the COVID-19 pandemic will be lasting.

Living with Epilepsy in Adolescence in Italy: Psychological and Behavioral Impact.

BACKGROUND: People with epilepsy have a higher prevalence of behavioral and neuropsychiatric comorbidities compared to the general population and those with other chronic medical conditions, although the underlying clinical features remain unclear. The goal of the current study was to characterize behavioral profiles of adolescents with epilepsy, assess the presence of psychopathological disorders, and investigate the reciprocal interactions among epilepsy, psychological functioning, and their main clinical variables. METHODS: Sixty-three adolescents with epilepsy were consecutively recruited at the Epilepsy Center, Childhood and Adolescence Neuropsychiatry Unit of Santi Paolo e Carlo hospital in Milan (five of them were excluded) and assessed with a specific questionnaire for psychopathology in adolescence, such as the Questionnaire for the Assessment of Psychopathology in Adolescence (Q-PAD). Q-PAD results were then correlated with the main clinical data. RESULTS: 55.2% (32/58) of patients presented at least one emotional disturbance. Body dissatisfaction, anxiety, interpersonal conflicts, family problems, uncertainty about the future, and self-esteem/well-being disorders were frequently reported. Gender and poor control of seizures are associated with specific emotional features (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: These findings highlight the importance of screening for emotional distress, recognition of the impairments, and provision of adequate treatment and follow-up. A pathological score on the Q-PAD should always require the clinician to investigate the presence of behavioral disorders and comorbidities in adolescents with epilepsy.

The population impact of herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) vaccination on the incidence of HSV-2, HIV and genital ulcer disease in South Africa: a mathematical modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence suggests HSV-2 infection increases HIV acquisition risk and HIV/HSV-2 coinfection increases transmission risk of both infections. We analysed the potential impact of HSV-2 vaccination in South Africa, a high HIV/HSV-2 prevalence setting. METHODS: We adapted a dynamic HIV transmission model for South Africa to incorporate HSV-2, including synergistic effects with HIV, to evaluate the impact of: (i) cohort vaccination of 9-year-olds with a prophylactic vaccine that reduces HSV-2 susceptibility; (ii) vaccination of symptomatically HSV-2-infected individuals with a therapeutic vaccine that reduces HSV shedding. FINDINGS: An 80% efficacious prophylactic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 80% uptake could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 84.1% (95% Credibility Interval: 81.2-86.0) and 65.4% (56.5-71.6) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 57.4% (53.6-60.7) and 42.1% (34.1-48.1) if efficacy is 50%, 56.1% (53.4-58.3) and 41.5% (34.2-46.9) if uptake is 40%, and 29.4% (26.0-31.9) and 24.4% (19.0-28.7) if protection lasts 10 years. An 80% efficacious therapeutic vaccine offering lifetime protection with 40% coverage among symptomatic individuals could reduce HSV-2 and HIV incidence by 29.6% (21.8-40.9) and 26.4% (18.5-23.2) after 40 years, respectively. This reduces to 18.8% (13.7-26.4) and 16.9% (11.7-25.3) if efficacy is 50%, 9.7% (7.0-14.0) and 8.6% (5.8-13.4) if coverage is 20%, and 5.4% (3.8-8.0) and 5.5% (3.7-8.6) if protection lasts 2 years. INTERPRETATION: Prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines offer promising approaches for reducing HSV-2 burden and could have important impact on HIV in South Africa and other high prevalence settings. FUNDING: WHO, NIAID.

The potential public health impact of adolescent 4CMenB vaccination on Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in England: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhoea in adults is currently underway. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential public health impact of adolescent gonorrhoea vaccination in England, considering different implementation strategies. METHODS: We developed a deterministic transmission-dynamic model of gonorrhoea infection among heterosexual 13-64-year-olds stratified by age, sex and sexual activity. We explored the impact of a National Immunisation Programme (NIP) among 14-year-olds for a vaccine with 31% efficacy, 6 years' duration of protection, and 85% uptake. We also explored how impact might change for varying efficacy (20-50%) and uptake (75-95%), the addition of a catch-up programme, the use of boosters, and varying duration of protection. RESULTS: An NIP against gonorrhoea could lead to 50,000 (95% credible interval, CrI 31,000-80,000) and 849,000 (95%CrI 476,000-1,568,000) gonorrhoea infections being averted over 10 and 70 years, respectively, in England, for a vaccine with 31% efficacy and 85% uptake. This is equivalent to 25% (95%CrI 17-33%) of heterosexual infections being averted over 70 years. Vaccine impact is predicted to increase over time and be greatest among 13-18-year-olds (39% of infections 95%CrI 31-49% averted) over 70 years. Varying vaccine efficacy and duration of protection had a noticeable effect on impact. Catch-up and booster vaccination increased the short- and long-term impact, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A partially-effective vaccine against gonorrhoea infection, delivered to 14-year-olds alongside the MenACWY vaccine, could have an important population impact on gonorrhoea. Catch-up and booster vaccination could be considered alongside cohort vaccination to increase impact.

The Impact of Donor Preparation for Tissue Procurement on Postmortem Vitreous Isopropanol Concentration.

ABSTRACT: Volatile chemicals can be relevant in the determination of the cause and manner of death by forensic pathologists. Isopropanol is a secondary alcohol that is occasionally seen on postmortem toxicology testing. A series of 11 forensic autopsy cases was previously reported in which the presence of isopropanol in the vitreous humor was suspected to be due to postmortem contamination from the body preparation process for tissue procurement.In collaboration with a tissue procurement agency, donor vitreous humor was collected from one eye before body preparation for procurement and from the other eye postpreparation. The specimens underwent testing for volatile substances by headspace gas chromatography.Of the 50 cases, 8 (16%) showed statistically significant changes in the prepreparation and postpreparation isopropanol concentrations. Postpreparation isopropanol concentrations ranged from 5 to 104 mg/dL (median, 18 mg/dL). Seven of the 8 cases had undetectable prepreparation isopropanol, whereas the remaining case had a detectable prepreparation isopropanol.In conclusion, surface contamination of the decedent's body with chemicals used in body preparation can lead to the passive absorption into the body, resulting in the presence of isopropanol in postmortem toxicology samples. Forensic pathologists need to be aware of this when interpreting postmortem samples after tissue procurement.

Psychobiological personality traits of children and adolescents with disorders of arousal.

INTRODUCTION: Disorders of arousal (DOA) are parasomnias that emerge from incomplete arousal out of Non-Rem Sleep (NREM) and lead to a broad variety of emotional and motor behaviours. Increasing evidence supports the hypothesis that specific psychopathological traits contribute to the multifactorial origin of these phenomena. The aim of the current multicenter study was to compare the personality profile of children and adolescents with and without DOA using the Junior Temperament and Character Inventory (JTCI). METHODS: We enrolled 36 patients with a diagnosis of DOA (mean age of 11 ± 3 years, 64% males), and 36 healthy age and gender matched control subjects (mean age of 11.2 ± 3.6, years, 67% males). Their parents completed the Paris Arousal Disorder Severity Scale (PADSS), the Sleep Disturbance Scale for Children (SDSC) and the JTCI. RESULTS: Patients with DOA reached significantly higher levels compared to their control group in total PADSS (p < 0.0001) and in total SDSC (p < 0.0001). They also displayed higher scores in novelty seeking (p = 0.005), harm avoidance (p = 0.01), self-transcendence (p = 0.006) JTCI subscales, and lower scores on the self-directedness subscale (p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: Our pediatric sample with DOA exhibited specific psychobiological personality traits compared to age and gender matched subjects without DOA. These results shed light on new possible etiopathogenetic mechanisms, as TCI traits have been linked to specific genetic variants and brain circuits, like the reward system. Prospective studies are required to assess the effect of targeted psychological/psychiatric treatment on DOA symptomatology.

A comparison of anxiety levels before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The COVID-19 Pandemic upended the lives of nearly everyone worldwide, and recent studies have reported higher rates of anxiety, depression, and other mental health problems. Using a repeated crosssectional design, the current study compares anxiety levels from a representative sample of college students prior-to and during the COVID-19 Pandemic. Additionally, differences in anxiety prior to and following U.S. approval for use of the Pfizer-BioNTtech COVID-19 vaccine were also compared. Findings indicate that state-anxiety levels did not differ significantly prior to and during the Pandemic as well as before the vaccine and during and after the vaccine (M = 43.01, 44.10, 44.77, respectively). Surprisingly, trait anxiety levels were significantly higher during the Pandemic than before (p = .003), and anxiety levels trend down after the approval of the vaccine, but not significantly (M = 45.10, 48.85, 47.58, respectively). Future research should continue to investigate and compare anxiety levels during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

A scoping review of antibiotic use practices and drivers of inappropriate antibiotic use in animal farms in WHO Southeast Asia region.

Antibiotic use (ABU) plays an important role in the proliferation of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Global antimicrobial consumption in food production is projected to rise by 67% from 2010 to 2030, but available estimates are limited by the scarcity of ABU data and absence of global surveillance systems. The WHO South-East Asia (WHO SEA) region is at high risk of emergence of AMR, likely driven by intensifying farm operations and worsening ABU hotspots. However, little is known about farm-level ABU practices in the region. To summarize emerging evidence and research gaps, we conducted a scoping review of ABU practices following the Arksey and O'Malley methodological framework. We included studies published between 2010 and 2021 on farm-level ABU/AMR in the 11 WHO SEA member states, and databases were last searched on 31 October 2021. Our search strategy identified 184 unique articles, and 25 publications underwent full-text eligibility assessment. Seventeen studies, reported in 18 publications, were included in the scoping review. We found heterogeneity in the categorizations, definitions, and ABU characterization methods used across studies and farm types. Most studies involved poultry, pig, and cattle farms, and only one study examined aquaculture. Most studies evaluated ABU prevalence by asking respondents about the presence or absence of ABU in the farm. Only two studies quantified antibiotic consumption, and sampling bias and lack of standardized data collection methods were identified as key limitations. Emerging evidence that farm workers had difficulty differentiating antibiotics from other substances contributed to the uncertainty about the reliability of self-reported data without other validation techniques. ABU for growth promotion and treatment were prevalent. We found a large overlap in the critically important antibiotics used in farm animals and humans. The ease of access to antibiotics compounded by the difficulties in accessing quality veterinary care and preventive services likely drive inappropriate ABU in complex ways.

A Structural Atlas of the Developing Zebrafish Telencephalon Based on Spatially-Restricted Transgene Expression.

Zebrafish telencephalon acquires an everted morphology by a two-step process that occurs from 1 to 5 days post-fertilization (dpf). Little is known about how this process affects the positioning of discrete telencephalic cell populations, hindering our understanding of how eversion impacts telencephalic structural organization. In this study, we characterize the neurochemistry, cycle state and morphology of an EGFP positive (+) cell population in the telencephalon of Et(gata2:EGFP)bi105 transgenic fish during eversion and up to 20dpf. We map the transgene insertion to the early-growth-response-gene-3 (egr3) locus and show that EGFP expression recapitulates endogenous egr3 expression throughout much of the pallial telencephalon. Using the gata2:EGFP bi105 transgene, in combination with other well-characterized transgenes and structural markers, we track the development of various cell populations in the zebrafish telencephalon as it undergoes the morphological changes underlying eversion. These datasets were registered to reference brains to form an atlas of telencephalic development at key stages of the eversion process (1dpf, 2dpf, and 5dpf) and compared to expression in adulthood. Finally, we registered gata2:EGFPbi105 expression to the Zebrafish Brain Browser 6dpf reference brain (ZBB, see Marquart et al., 2015, 2017; Tabor et al., 2019), to allow comparison of this expression pattern with anatomical data already in ZBB.

Sleep disorders and mental health in hospital workers during the COVID-19 pandemic: a cross-sectional multicenter study in Northern Italy.

INTRODUCTION: From the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, healthcare workers had to face unprecedented emergency needs associated with an extraordinary amount of psychological distress. In this cross-sectional multicenter study, we investigated sleep disturbances, and the level of anxiety and depression among the healthcare and non-healthcare staff of three hospitals in Milan (Italy) during the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, we explored potential predisposing factors for affective symptoms and poor sleep. METHODS: Between June and July 2020, we administered an online questionnaire to evaluate the presence of sleep disorders (Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index), insomnia (Sleep Condition Indicator), anxiety (State Trait Anxiety Inventory), and depression (Beck Depression Inventory-II). We used univariate and multivariate analysis to evaluate the association between the personal conditions and sleep and affective disorders. RESULTS: The 964 participants reported high rates of sleep disorders (80.3%)-mainly insomnia (30.5%)-anxiety (69.7%), and depression (32.8%). The multivariate analysis showed a strong association of sleep disorders, especially insomnia, with female gender (p = 0.004), divorced marital status (p = 0.015), self-isolation (p = 0.037), and chronic diseases (p = 0.003). Anxiety was significantly associated with teleworking (p = 0.001), while depressive symptoms were associated with self-isolation (p = 0.028), modified work schedules (p = 0.03), and chronic diseases (p = 0.027). CONCLUSION: In hospital workers, the high prevalence of sleep and psychiatric symptoms during the COVID-19 outbreak appears to be determined mainly by modifications of personal or work habits. Teleworking was associated with increased anxiety. An accurate planning of hospital activities and a psychological support are needed to prevent and manage sleep and mental disorders.

Evidence for Early Cyclosporine Treatment for Hunner Lesion Interstitial Cystitis.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to evaluate our experience using cyclosporine A (CyA) in the treatment of Hunner lesion interstitial cystitis (HLIC). METHODS: Retrospective chart review was performed on patients with HLIC treated with CyA from August 2012 to September 2019. Demographic and clinical variables, number of interstitial cystitis therapies, frequency, nocturia, and bladder pain visual analog scores before and after CyA treatment were collected, as well as the Global Response Assessment (GRA) and the Interstitial Cystitis Symptom Index and Interstitial Cystitis Problem Index. CyA responders were defined as those with moderately or markedly improved GRA scores. RESULTS: A total of 51 patients with HLIC treated with CyA were identified. Mean follow-up was 3 years (0.36-6.8 years). Seventy-six percent (28 of 37) were female; mean age was 68 years (51-84 years). Before CyA treatment, an average of 8 previous therapies were tried and patients reported an average of 8 of 10 bladder pain. Daytime frequency was 11-20 times per day, and nocturia was 7 times per night. Per the GRA, 84% (31 of 37) were considered CyA responders. Posttherapy Interstitial Cystitis Symptom Index and Interstitial Cystitis Problem Index scores were lower in responders compared with nonresponders (8.9 ± 5.7 vs 21.3 ± 7.0, P = 0.001). Bladder pain, number of hydrodistentions/fulgurations, nocturia, and daytime frequency improved significantly after CyA treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The cyclosporine A response rate was 84%, with most of these patients reporting marked improvement. Bladder pain, daytime frequency, and nocturia were significantly improved after CyA treatment, and the number of interventions after CyA treatment decreased. Cyclosporine A should be considered earlier than fifth-line therapy in HLIC.

INCIDENCE OF HERPES SIMPLEX VIRUS KERATITIS AND OTHER OCULAR DISEASE: GLOBAL REVIEW AND ESTIMATES.

PURPOSE: We aimed to review available data on the incidence of herpes simplex virus (HSV) keratitis and other HSV ocular disease and to estimate the global burden of HSV ocular disease. METHODS: We searched Medline and Embase databases to October 2020 for studies reporting on the incidence of HSV ocular disease. Study quality was evaluated using a four-point checklist. Pooled estimates were applied to 2016 population data to estimate global HSV ocular disease burden. Numbers with uniocular vision impairment (any visual acuity <6/12) were estimated by applying published risks to case numbers. RESULTS: Fourteen studies had incidence data; seven met our quality criteria. In 2016, an estimated 1.7 (95% confidence interval, 95% CI 1.0-3.0) million people had HSV keratitis, based on a pooled incidence of 24.0 (95% CI 14.0-41.0; N = 2; I2 = 97.7%) per 100,000 person-years. The majority had epithelial keratitis (pooled incidence 16.1 per 100,000; 95% CI 11.6-22.3; N = 3; I2 = 92.6%). Available studies were few and limited to the USA and Europe. Data were even more limited for HSV uveitis and retinitis, although these conditions may collectively contribute a further >0.1 million cases. Based on global incidence, some 230,000 people may have newly acquired uniocular vision impairment associated with HSV keratitis in 2016. CONCLUSION: Over 1.8 million people may have herpetic eye disease annually. Preventing HSV infection could therefore have an important impact on eye health. Herpetic eye disease burden is likely to have been underestimated, as many settings outside of the USA and Europe have higher HSV-1 prevalence and poorer access to treatment.

Effects of Supplementation With Antioxidant Agents on Sleep in Autism Spectrum Disorder: A Review.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a heterogeneous neurodevelopmental condition, whose etiology remains poorly understood in most cases. Several genetic, epigenetic and environmental factors have been implicated in ASD pathogenesis and numerous studies have provided evidences for increased levels of oxidative stress and reduced antioxidant capacity in patients with ASD. Recent clinical trials explored supplementation with antioxidant agents as a potential therapeutic strategy for ASD, investigating the impact of this treatment on behavioral symptoms and on most common comorbidities of the disease, including sleep disturbances. Among all medical conditions associated to ASD, sleep problems are highly prevalent and are supposed to be positively related to the severity of the disease. Moreover, studies on animal models support the hypothesis of a relationship between oxidative stress and sleep deprivation. The aim of this review is to summarize the current state of the literature on the effect of antioxidant treatment on sleep disturbances in patients with ASD. Twenty-one articles were included in final synthesis. Of them, 15 studies involved Melatonin, 1 Tryptophan and 5 focused on supplementation with other antioxidant agents (namely Coenzyme Q10, L-Carnosine, Luteolin and Quercetin). Despite the high prevalence of comorbid sleep troubles in ASD, there is a paucity of data on the efficacy of antioxidant agents in those patients. Further research is needed to better define the role of antioxidants agents as adjunctive therapy in the management sleep disorders in children and adolescents affected with ASD.

What Is the Burden of Heterosexually Acquired HIV Due to HSV-2? Global and Regional Model-Based Estimates of the Proportion and Number of HIV Infections Attributable to HSV-2 Infection.

BACKGROUND: Biological and epidemiological evidence suggest that herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) elevates HIV acquisition and transmission risks. We improved previous estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections by using a dynamic transmission model. SETTING: World Health Organization regions. METHODS: We developed a mathematical model of HSV-2/HIV transmission among 15- to 49-year-old heterosexual, non-drug-injecting populations, calibrated using region-specific demographic and HSV-2/HIV epidemiological data. We derived global and regional estimates of the contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infection over 10 years [the transmission population-attributable fraction (tPAF)] under 3 additive scenarios, assuming: (1) HSV-2 increases only HIV acquisition risk (conservative); (2) HSV-2 also increases HIV transmission risk (liberal); and (3) HIV or antiretroviral therapy (ART) also modifies HSV-2 transmission risk, and HSV-2 decreases ART effect on HIV transmission risk (fully liberal). RESULTS: Under the conservative scenario, the predicted tPAF was 37.3% (95% uncertainty interval: 33.4%-43.2%), and an estimated 5.6 (4.5-7.0) million incident heterosexual HIV infections were due to HSV-2 globally over 2009-2018. The contribution of HSV-2 to HIV infections was largest for the African region [tPAF = 42.6% (38.0%-51.2%)] and lowest for the European region [tPAF = 11.2% (7.9%-13.8%)]. The tPAF was higher among female sex workers, their clients, and older populations, reflecting their higher HSV-2 prevalence. The tPAF was approximately 50% and 1.3- to 2.4-fold higher for the liberal or fully liberal scenario than the conservative scenario across regions. CONCLUSION: HSV-2 may have contributed to at least 37% of incident HIV infections in the past decade worldwide, and even more in Africa, and may continue to do so despite increased ART access unless future improved HSV-2 control measures, such as vaccines, become available.

The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon. METHODS: Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression. A mathematical model of HIV transmission/treatment among MSM was used to estimate the impact of disruptions on HIV infections/HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over one and five years for 3/4/6-month disruption periods, starting from 1 January 2020. RESULTS: Our model predicted new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions (25% virally suppressed MSM stop taking ART) for a three-month period increasing HIV infections by 5% to 14% over one year and deaths by 7% to 12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5% to 14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility HIV testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11% to 23% fewer infections and 0.4% to 1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods (4/6 months) amplified the impact of disruption scenarios. When realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections occurred over one year (3% to 17%), but not for five years (1% increase to 4% decrease), whereas deaths mostly increased over one year (1% to 2%) and five years (1.2 increase to 0.3 decrease). CONCLUSIONS: The overall impact of COVID-19 on new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is dependent on the nature, scale and length of the various disruptions. Resources should be directed to ensuring levels of viral suppression and condom use are maintained to mitigate any adverse effects of COVID-19-related disruption on HIV transmission and control among MSM in China.

One Health drivers of antibacterial resistance: Quantifying the relative impacts of human, animal and environmental use and transmission.

OBJECTIVES: Antibacterial resistance (ABR) is a major global health security threat, with a disproportionate burden on lower-and middle-income countries (LMICs). It is not understood how 'One Health', where human health is co-dependent on animal health and the environment, might impact the burden of ABR in LMICs. Thailand's 2017 "National Strategic Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance" (NSP-AMR) aims to reduce AMR morbidity by 50% through 20% reductions in human and 30% in animal antibacterial use (ABU). There is a need to understand the implications of such a plan within a One Health perspective. METHODS: A model of ABU, gut colonisation with extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-producing bacteria and transmission was calibrated using estimates of the prevalence of ESBL-producing bacteria in Thailand. This model was used to project the reduction in human ABR over 20 years (2020-2040) for each One Health driver, including individual transmission rates between humans, animals and the environment, and to estimate the long-term impact of the NSP-AMR intervention. RESULTS: The model predicts that human ABU was the most important factor in reducing the colonisation of humans with resistant bacteria (maximum 65.7-99.7% reduction). The NSP-AMR is projected to reduce human colonisation by 6.0-18.8%, with more ambitious targets (30% reductions in human ABU) increasing this to 8.5-24.9%. CONCLUSIONS: Our model provides a simple framework to explain the mechanisms underpinning ABR, suggesting that future interventions targeting the simultaneous reduction of transmission and ABU would help to control ABR more effectively in Thailand.

Sleep and behavior in children and adolescents with tuberous sclerosis complex.

Sleep disorders are frequent in tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) during the developmental age but are not well characterized. Forty-six TSC patients and 46 healthy age- and sex-matched controls were enrolled. Their parents completed the Sleep Disturbances Scale for Children (SDSC) and the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL). A total of 17.4% of the TSC patients obtained a total pathologic score at the SDSC versus 4.4% in the control group (p = 0.024). 45.7% of individuals with TSC reported a pathologic score in at least one of the factors. We found a statistically significant difference between the TSC cohort and healthy controls for most of the CBCL scales scores. A significant relationship was found between the Total SDSC score and the Total CBCL score (R-square = 0.387, p < 0.0001), between the Total SDSC score and the Internalizing and Externalizing areas scores (R-square = 0.291, p < 0.0001 and R-square = 0.350, p < 0.0001, respectively) of the CBCL. Sleep disorders are more frequent in TSC than in the general population and correlate with behavior. The use of SDSC and CBCL is proposed as part of the surveillance of TSC patients in the developmental age.

Epilepsy in adult patients with tuberous sclerosis complex.

OBJECTIVES: Little is known about the evolution of epilepsy in individuals with tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) in adulthood. This study aims at describing the characteristics of epilepsy in adult TSC patients attending a single multidisciplinary clinic. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We collected data about epilepsy (age at onset, seizure types, history of infantile spasms (IS), epilepsy diagnosis and outcome), genetic and neuroradiological findings, cognitive outcome and psychiatric comorbidities. RESULTS: Out of 257 adults with TSC, 183 (71.2%) had epilepsy: 121 (67.2%) were drug-resistant; 59 (32.8%) seizure-free, at a median age of 18 years. 22% of the seizure-free patients (13/59) discontinued medication. Median age at seizure onset was 9 months. Seventy-six patients (41.5%) had a history of IS. TSC2 pathogenic variants (p = 0.018), cortical tubers (p < 0.001) and subependymal nodules (SENs) (p < 0.001) were more frequent in those who developed epilepsy. Cognitive functioning was lower (p < 0.001) and psychiatric disorders more frequent (p = 0.001). We did not find significant differences regarding age, gender, mutation and tubers/SENs in seizure-free vs drug-resistant individuals. Intellectual disability (p < 0.001) and psychiatric disorders (p = 0.004) were more common among drug-resistant patients. CONCLUSIONS: Epilepsy in TSC can be a lifelong disorder, but one-third of individuals reach seizure freedom by early adulthood. In the long term, age at epilepsy onset has a crucial role in drug resistance and in developing intellectual disability, both in drug-resistant and drug-sensible patients. Patients with drug-refractory seizures tend to develop psychiatric issues, which should be recognized and adequately treated.

Diversified social cognition in temporal lobe epilepsy.

OBJECTIVES: In an integrated model of social cognition (SC), the theory of mind (ToM), the recognition of behavior in social situations (RBSS), empathy, and sensitivity to moral and conventional rules (SMCR) cooperate in generating mental representations of the interpersonal relationships. The aim of this study was to extend our knowledge of the SC of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE) patients by characterizing its various aspects and predictors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Fifty adult patients with TLE and 50 healthy controls were assessed using ToM, RBSS and SMCR neuropsychological tests, the Empathy Questionnaire, and the psychopathology Symptoms Check List 90R (SCL90-R). RESULTS: Patients and controls were similar in terms of occupation, income level, age, sex, marital status and the number of family members. Multivariate analysis of variance with demographic variables as the covariates showed that they were similar in SMCR and empathy. The patients, conversely, had lower ToM and RBSS scores, and higher scores on the SCL90-R psychoticism, depression, paranoid ideation, obsessive-compulsive, somatization and anxiety scales. Impaired RBSS was predicted by psychopathological symptoms, income level, schooling and the duration of epilepsy; ToM related to TLE laterality, seizure frequency and epilepsy duration. CONCLUSIONS: In adult patients with TLE, SC is simultaneously partially impaired and partially preserved, and the fact this is associated with clinical, demographic and psychological variables suggests that SC depends on the integrity of the temporal lobe and the interconnected brain regions, as well as psychosocial stimuli. This approach may contribute to clarify the neurobehavioural phenotype of TLE.

Estimating the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory and hospital capacity requirements in South West England: a mathematical modelling framework.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a regional model of COVID-19 dynamics for use in estimating the number of infections, deaths and required acute and intensive care (IC) beds using the South West England (SW) as an example case. DESIGN: Open-source age-structured variant of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental mathematical model. Latin hypercube sampling and maximum likelihood estimation were used to calibrate to cumulative cases and cumulative deaths. SETTING: SW at a time considered early in the pandemic, where National Health Service authorities required evidence to guide localised planning and support decision-making. PARTICIPANTS: Publicly available data on patients with COVID-19. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: The expected numbers of infected cases, deaths due to COVID-19 infection, patient occupancy of acute and IC beds and the reproduction ('R') number over time. RESULTS: SW model projections indicate that, as of 11 May 2020 (when 'lockdown' measures were eased), 5793 (95% credible interval (CrI) 2003 to 12 051) individuals were still infectious (0.10% of the total SW population, 95% CrI 0.04% to 0.22%), and a total of 189 048 (95% CrI 141 580 to 277 955) had been infected with the virus (either asymptomatically or symptomatically), but recovered, which is 3.4% (95% CrI 2.5% to 5.0%) of the SW population. The total number of patients in acute and IC beds in the SW on 11 May 2020 was predicted to be 701 (95% CrI 169 to 1543) and 110 (95% CrI 8 to 464), respectively. The R value in SW was predicted to be 2.6 (95% CrI 2.0 to 3.2) prior to any interventions, with social distancing reducing this to 2.3 (95% CrI 1.8 to 2.9) and lockdown/school closures further reducing the R value to 0.6 (95% CrI 0.5 to 0.7). CONCLUSIONS: The developed model has proved a valuable asset for regional healthcare services. The model will be used further in the SW as the pandemic evolves, and-as open-source software-is portable to healthcare systems in other geographies.