Near-term deployment of carbon capture and sequestration from biorefineries in the United States.

Capture and permanent geologic sequestration of biogenic CO2 emissions may provide critical flexibility in ambitious climate change mitigation. However, most bioenergy with carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS) technologies are technically immature or commercially unavailable. Here, we evaluate low-cost, commercially ready CO2 capture opportunities for existing ethanol biorefineries in the United States. The analysis combines process engineering, spatial optimization, and lifecycle assessment to consider the technical, economic, and institutional feasibility of near-term carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Our modeling framework evaluates least cost source-sink relationships and aggregation opportunities for pipeline transport, which can cost-effectively transport small CO2 volumes to suitable sequestration sites; 216 existing US biorefineries emit 45 Mt CO2 annually from fermentation, of which 60% could be captured and compressed for pipeline transport for under $25/tCO2 A sequestration credit, analogous to existing CCS tax credits, of $60/tCO2 could incent 30 Mt of sequestration and 6,900 km of pipeline infrastructure across the United States. Similarly, a carbon abatement credit, analogous to existing tradeable CO2 credits, of $90/tCO2 can incent 38 Mt of abatement. Aggregation of CO2 sources enables cost-effective long-distance pipeline transport to distant sequestration sites. Financial incentives under the low-carbon fuel standard in California and recent revisions to existing federal tax credits suggest a substantial near-term opportunity to permanently sequester biogenic CO2 This financial opportunity could catalyze the growth of carbon capture, transport, and sequestration; improve the lifecycle impacts of conventional biofuels; support development of carbon-negative fuels; and help fulfill the mandates of low-carbon fuel policies across the United States.

Geospatial analysis of near-term potential for carbon-negative bioenergy in the United States.

Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is a negative-emissions technology that may play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. BECCS relies on the capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2) following bioenergy production to remove and reliably sequester atmospheric CO2 Previous BECCS deployment assessments have largely overlooked the potential lack of spatial colocation of suitable storage basins and biomass availability, in the absence of long-distance biomass and CO2 transport. These conditions could constrain the near-term technical deployment potential of BECCS due to social and economic barriers that exist for biomass and CO2 transport. This study leverages biomass production data and site-specific injection and storage capacity estimates at high spatial resolution to assess the near-term deployment opportunities for BECCS in the United States. If the total biomass resource available in the United States was mobilized for BECCS, an estimated 370 Mt CO2⋅y-1 of negative emissions could be supplied in 2020. However, the absence of long-distance biomass and CO2 transport, as well as limitations imposed by unsuitable regional storage and injection capacities, collectively decrease the technical potential of negative emissions to 100 Mt CO2⋅y-1 Meeting this technical potential may require large-scale deployment of BECCS technology in more than 1,000 counties, as well as widespread deployment of dedicated energy crops. Specifically, the Illinois basin, Gulf region, and western North Dakota have the greatest potential for near-term BECCS deployment. High-resolution spatial assessment as conducted in this study can inform near-term opportunities that minimize social and economic barriers to BECCS deployment.

Nitrous oxide emissions are enhanced in a warmer and wetter world.

Nitrous oxide (N2O) has a global warming potential that is 300 times that of carbon dioxide on a 100-y timescale, and is of major importance for stratospheric ozone depletion. The climate sensitivity of N2O emissions is poorly known, which makes it difficult to project how changing fertilizer use and climate will impact radiative forcing and the ozone layer. Analysis of 6 y of hourly N2O mixing ratios from a very tall tower within the US Corn Belt-one of the most intensive agricultural regions of the world-combined with inverse modeling, shows large interannual variability in N2O emissions (316 Gg N2O-N⋅y-1 to 585 Gg N2O-N⋅y-1). This implies that the regional emission factor is highly sensitive to climate. In the warmest year and spring (2012) of the observational period, the emission factor was 7.5%, nearly double that of previous reports. Indirect emissions associated with runoff and leaching dominated the interannual variability of total emissions. Under current trends in climate and anthropogenic N use, we project a strong positive feedback to warmer and wetter conditions and unabated growth of regional N2O emissions that will exceed 600 Gg N2O-N⋅y-1, on average, by 2050. This increasing emission trend in the US Corn Belt may represent a harbinger of intensifying N2O emissions from other agricultural regions. Such feedbacks will pose a major challenge to the Paris Agreement, which requires large N2O emission mitigation efforts to achieve its goals.

Impact of Kura Clover Living Mulch on Nitrous Oxide Emissions in a Corn-Soybean System.

Nitrous oxide (NO), produced primarily in agricultural soils, is a potent greenhouse gas and is the dominant ozone-depleting substance. Efforts to reduce NO emissions are underway, but mitigation results have been inconsistent. The leguminous perennial kura clover ( M. Bieb.) (KC) can grow side-by-side with cash crops in rotational corn ( L.)-soybean ( L.) systems. With biological nitrogen fixation, KC provides land managers an opportunity to reduce external fertilizer inputs, which may diminish problematic NO emissions. To investigate the effect of a KC living mulch on NO emissions, automated soil chambers coupled to a NO analyzer were used to measure hourly fluxes from April through October in a 2-yr corn-soybean (CS) rotation. Emissions from the KC treatment were significantly greater than those from the conventional CS treatment despite the fact that the KC treatment received substantially less inorganic nitrogen fertilizer. A seasonal tradeoff was observed with the KC treatment wherein emissions before strip-tillage were reduced but were surpassed by high losses after strip-tillage and postanthesis. These results represent the first reported measurements of NO emissions from a KC-based living mulch. The findings cast doubt on the efficacy of KC for mitigating NO loss in CS systems. However, if KC reduces nitrate leaching losses, as has been reported elsewhere, it may result in lower indirect (offsite) NO emissions.

Indirect nitrous oxide emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt scale with stream order.

N2O is an important greenhouse gas and the primary stratospheric ozone depleting substance. Its deleterious effects on the environment have prompted appeals to regulate emissions from agriculture, which represents the primary anthropogenic source in the global N2O budget. Successful implementation of mitigation strategies requires robust bottom-up inventories that are based on emission factors (EFs), simulation models, or a combination of the two. Top-down emission estimates, based on tall-tower and aircraft observations, indicate that bottom-up inventories severely underestimate regional and continental scale N2O emissions, implying that EFs may be biased low. Here, we measured N2O emissions from streams within the US Corn Belt using a chamber-based approach and analyzed the data as a function of Strahler stream order (S). N2O fluxes from headwater streams often exceeded 29 nmol N2O-N m(-2) ⋅ s(-1) and decreased exponentially as a function of S. This relation was used to scale up riverine emissions and to assess the differences between bottom-up and top-down emission inventories at the local to regional scale. We found that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indirect EF for rivers (EF5r) is underestimated up to ninefold in southern Minnesota, which translates to a total tier 1 agricultural underestimation of N2O emissions by 40%. We show that accounting for zero-order streams as potential N2O hotspots can more than double the agricultural budget. Applying the same analysis to the US Corn Belt demonstrates that the IPCC EF5r underestimation explains the large differences observed between top-down and bottom-up emission estimates.

Hedging jet fuel price risk: The case of U.S. passenger airlines.

Jet fuel accounts for a large portion of passenger airlines' operating costs, and airlines' earnings are susceptible to swings in the price of jet fuel. This study uses daily data over the past two decades to determine the minimum variance hedge ratio for airlines wishing to hedge jet fuel price risk with futures, while also establishing the best cross hedging asset. Airlines hedging with futures would create the most effective hedge by using heating oil futures contracts with a 3-month maturity. We also find that beyond the 3-month veil, increased time to maturity makes heating oil less effective as a cross hedge proxy for jet fuel. However, both in-sample analysis and Monte Carlo simulation results with daily data show that none of the 4 cross hedge proxies, including heating oil, can be considered highly effective.