Economic (gross cost) analysis of systematically implementing a programme of advance care planning in three Irish nursing homes.

BACKGROUND: Although advance care planning (ACP) and the use of advanced care directives (ACD) and end-of-life care plans are associated with a reduction in inappropriate hospitalisation, there is little evidence supporting the economic benefits of such programmes. We assessed the economic impact (gross savings) of the Let Me Decide (LMD) ACP programme in Ireland, specifically the impact on hospitalisations, bed days and location of resident deaths, before and after systematic implementation of the LMD-ACP combined with a palliative care education programme. METHODS: The LMD-ACP was introduced into three long-term care (LTC) facilities in Southern Ireland and outcomes were compared pre and post implementation. In addition, 90 staff were trained in a palliative care educational programme. Economic analysis including probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed. RESULTS: The uptake of an ACD or end-of-life care post-implementation rose from 25 to 76%. Post implementation, there were statistically significant decreases in hospitalisation rates from baseline (hospitalisation incidents declined from 27.8 to 14.6%, z = 3.96, p < 0.001; inpatient hospital days reduced from 0.54 to 0.36%, z = 8.85, p < 0.001). The percentage of hospital deaths also decreased from 22.9 to 8.4%, z = 3.22, p = 0.001. However, length of stay (LOS) increased marginally (7-9 days). Economic analysis suggested a cost-reduction related to reduced hospitalisations ranging between €10 and €17.8 million/annum and reduction in ambulance transfers, estimated at €0.4 million/annum if these results were extrapolated nationally. When unit costs and LOS estimates were varied in scenario analyses, the expected cost reduction owing to reduced hospitalisations, ranged from €17.7 to €42.4 million nationally. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of the LMD-ACP (ACD/end-of-life care plans combined with palliative care education) programme resulted in reduced rates of hospitalisation. Despite an increase in LOS, likely reflecting more complex care needs of admitted residents, gross costs were reduced and scenario analysis projected large annual savings if these results were extrapolated to the wider LTC population in Ireland.

Composition, variability, and temporal stability of the intestinal microbiota of the elderly.

Alterations in the human intestinal microbiota are linked to conditions including inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, and obesity. The microbiota also undergoes substantial changes at the extremes of life, in infants and older people, the ramifications of which are still being explored. We applied pyrosequencing of over 40,000 16S rRNA gene V4 region amplicons per subject to characterize the fecal microbiota in 161 subjects aged 65 y and older and 9 younger control subjects. The microbiota of each individual subject constituted a unique profile that was separable from all others. In 68% of the individuals, the microbiota was dominated by phylum Bacteroides, with an average proportion of 57% across all 161 baseline samples. Phylum Firmicutes had an average proportion of 40%. The proportions of some phyla and genera associated with disease or health also varied dramatically, including Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, and Faecalibacteria. The core microbiota of elderly subjects was distinct from that previously established for younger adults, with a greater proportion of Bacteroides spp. and distinct abundance patterns of Clostridium groups. Analyses of 26 fecal microbiota datasets from 3-month follow-up samples indicated that in 85% of the subjects, the microbiota composition was more like the corresponding time-0 sample than any other dataset. We conclude that the fecal microbiota of the elderly shows temporal stability over limited time in the majority of subjects but is characterized by unusual phylum proportions and extreme variability.

Association between apolipoprotein E4 and cognitive decline in elderly adults.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the influence of apolipoprotein E on cognitive decline in a cohort of elderly men and women. DESIGN: Prospective study. SETTING: Scotland, Ireland, and the Netherlands. PARTICIPANTS: Five thousand eight hundred four subjects aged 70 to 82 from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). MEASUREMENTS: Subjects were assessed at baseline and over a mean 3.2-year (range 0.7-4.2) follow-up for memory (Picture-Word Recall), speed of information processing (Stroop and Letter-Digit Coding), global cognitive function (Mini-Mental State Examination), and activities of daily living. RESULTS: At baseline, subjects with apolipoprotein E(4) versus those without E(4) had poorer memory performance (mean score difference -0.20 (95% confidence interval (CI)=-0.31 to -0.09) for immediate recall and -0.32 (95% CI=-0.48 to -0.16) for delayed recall and slower information processing (difference in Stroop, 2.79 seconds, (95% CI=1.20-4.28); Letter-Digit score, -0.36, (95% CI=-0.77-0.05). Subjects with apolipoprotein E(4) showed a greater decline in immediate (-0.22, 95% CI=-0.33 to -0.11) and delayed (-0.30, 95% CI=-0.46 to -0.15) memory scores but no significant change in speed of information processing (Stroop, P=.17; Letter-Digit, P=.06). Memory scores decreased 2.5% from baseline in those without E(4), 4.3% in E(4) heterozygotes (P=.01 for immediate and P=.03 for delayed, vs no E(4)) and 8.9% to 13.8% in E(4) homozygotes (P=.04 for immediate and P=.004 for delayed, vs heterozygotes). Apolipoprotein E(4) was associated with greater decline in instrumental activities of daily living (P<.001). Cognitive decline was not associated with lipoprotein levels. CONCLUSION: Findings in PROSPER indicate that E(4) is associated with more-rapid cognitive decline and may, therefore, predispose to dementia.

C-reactive protein and prediction of coronary heart disease and global vascular events in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

BACKGROUND: The role of C-reactive protein (CRP) in predicting vascular events and response to statin therapy remains uncertain. Additional large prospective studies are required. METHODS AND RESULTS: Baseline CRP was related to risk over 3.2 years for primary a combined end point (definite or suspected death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or nonfatal stroke; n=865 events) and secondary (coronary heart disease events or stroke alone) and tertiary (stroke plus transient ischemic attack) end points in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (n=5804 men and women; age, 70 to 82 years). CRP levels were higher in subjects who had a subsequent primary end-point event compared with those who did not (geometric mean; 3.64 mg/L [SD, 3.08 mg/L] versus 3.01 mg/L [SD, 3.05 mg/L]; P<0.0001). CRP correlated positively with body mass index and smoking status and negatively with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. The unadjusted hazard ratio for the primary end point was 1.48 (95% CI, 1.26 to 1.74) in a comparison of top and bottom thirds for CRP, falling to 1.36 (95% CI, 1.15 to 1.61) with adjustment for established predictors and body mass index. Similar results were obtained for other end points or when results were examined separately by history of vascular disease. However, baseline CRP added minimally to risk prediction beyond conventional predictors and did not relate to the magnitude of pravastatin benefit. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated CRP minimally enhances cardiovascular disease prediction beyond established vascular risk factors and does not predict response to statin therapy in elderly subjects at risk. These data suggest that CRP has limited clinical value in cardiovascular disease risk stratification or predicting response to statin therapy in elderly people.

Plasma lipoproteins and apolipoproteins as predictors of cardiovascular risk and treatment benefit in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

BACKGROUND: Statins are important in vascular disease prevention in the elderly. However, the best method of selecting older patients for treatment is uncertain. We assessed the role of plasma lipoproteins as predictors of risk and of treatment benefit in the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). METHOD AND RESULTS: The association of LDLc and HDLc with risk was examined in the 5804 70- to 82-year-old subjects of PROSPER. Baseline LDLc showed no relation to risk of the primary end point in the placebo group (P=0.27), nor did on-treatment LDLc in the pravastatin group (P=0.12). HDLc was inversely associated with risk in subjects on placebo (P=0.0019) but not in those on pravastatin (P=0.24). Risk reduction on pravastatin treatment was unrelated to baseline LDLc (P=0.38) but exhibited a significant interaction with HDLc (P=0.012). Subjects in the lowest 2 quintiles of HDLc (<1.15 mmol/L) had a risk reduction of 33% (hazard ratio, 0.67; 95% confidence limits, 0.55, 0.81; P<0.0001), whereas those with higher HDLc showed no benefit (RR, 1.06; 95% confidence limits, 0.88, 1.27; P=0.53). During follow-up, there was no relation between achieved level of LDLc or HDLc and risk. However, the change in the LDLc/HDLc ratio on statin treatment appeared to account for the effects of therapy. CONCLUSIONS: In people >70 years old, HDLc appears to be a key predictor of risk and of treatment benefit. Findings in PROSPER suggest that statin therapy could usefully be targeted to those with HDLc <1.15 mmol/L or an LDLc/HDLc ratio >3.3.

Pravastatin in elderly individuals at risk of vascular disease (PROSPER): a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Although statins reduce coronary and cerebrovascular morbidity and mortality in middle-aged individuals, their efficacy and safety in elderly people is not fully established. Our aim was to test the benefits of pravastatin treatment in an elderly cohort of men and women with, or at high risk of developing, cardiovascular disease and stroke. METHODS: We did a randomised controlled trial in which we assigned 5804 men (n=2804) and women (n=3000) aged 70-82 years with a history of, or risk factors for, vascular disease to pravastatin (40 mg per day; n=2891) or placebo (n=2913). Baseline cholesterol concentrations ranged from 4.0 mmol/L to 9.0 mmol/L. Follow-up was 3.2 years on average and our primary endpoint was a composite of coronary death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke. Analysis was by intention-to-treat. FINDINGS: Pravastatin lowered LDL cholesterol concentrations by 34% and reduced the incidence of the primary endpoint to 408 events compared with 473 on placebo (hazard ratio 0.85, 95% CI 0.74-0.97, p=0.014). Coronary heart disease death and non-fatal myocardial infarction risk was also reduced (0.81, 0.69-0.94, p=0.006). Stroke risk was unaffected (1.03, 0.81-1.31, p=0.8), but the hazard ratio for transient ischaemic attack was 0.75 (0.55-1.00, p=0.051). New cancer diagnoses were more frequent on pravastatin than on placebo (1.25, 1.04-1.51, p=0.020). However, incorporation of this finding in a meta-analysis of all pravastatin and all statin trials showed no overall increase in risk. Mortality from coronary disease fell by 24% (p=0.043) in the pravastatin group. Pravastatin had no significant effect on cognitive function or disability. INTERPRETATION: Pravastatin given for 3 years reduced the risk of coronary disease in elderly individuals. PROSPER therefore extends to elderly individuals the treatment strategy currently used in middle aged people.

A Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER): Screening Experience and Baseline Characteristics.

BACKGROUND: PROSPER was designed to investigate the benefits of treatment with pravastatin in elderly patients for whom a typical doctor might consider the prescription of statin therapy to be a realistic option. METHODS: The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is a randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the hypothesis that treatment with pravastatin (40 mg/day) will reduce the risk of coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke in elderly men and women with pre-existing vascular disease or with significant risk of developing this condition. RESULTS: In Scotland, Ireland, and the Netherlands, 23,770 individuals were screened, and 5,804 subjects (2,804 men and 3,000 women), aged 70 to 82 years (average 75 years) and with baseline cholesterol 4.0-9.0 mmol/l, were randomised. Randomised subjects had similar distributions with respect to age, blood pressure, and body mass index when compared to the entire group of screenees, but had a higher prevalence of smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and a history of vascular disease. The average total cholesterol level at baseline was 5.4 mmol/l (men) and 6.0 mmol/l (women). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with previous prevention trials of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the PROSPER cohort is significantly older and for the first time includes a majority of women. The study, having achieved its initial goal of recruiting more than 5,500 elderly high-risk men and women, aims to complete all final subject follow-up visits in the first half of 2002 with the main results being available in the fourth quarter of 2002.