Family Norms and Declining First-Marriage Rates: The Role of Sibship Position in the Japanese Marriage Market.

This study explores how changes in sibship composition associated with fertility decline may, in conjunction with entrenched family norms and expectations associated with specific sibship positions, impact marriage rates and further reduce fertility. We evaluate this possibility by focusing on Japan, a society characterized by half a century of below-replacement fertility and widely shared family norms that associate eldest (male) children with specific family obligations. Harmonic mean models allow us to quantify the contribution of changes in both marriage market composition with respect to sibship position and sibship-specific pairing propensities to the observed decline in marriage rates between 1980 and 2010. One important finding is that marriage propensities are lower for those pairings involving men and women whose sibship position signals a higher potential of caregiving obligations, especially only-children. Another is that changes in marriage propensities, rather than changing sibship composition, explain most of the observed decline in marriage rates. We also found that marriage propensity changes mitigate the impact of the changing sibship composition to some extent. However, the limited contribution of changing sibship composition to the decline in first-marriage rates provides little support for a self-reinforcing fertility decline via the relationship between changing sibship composition and marriage behavior.

Explaining Declining Educational Homogamy: The Role of Institutional Changes in Higher Education in Japan.

Research on educational assortative mating has devoted much attention to educational expansion but has been less focused on a concurrent trend of importance: growing differentiation among higher education institutions. In this study, I examine whether the bifurcation between high- and low-tier institutions in the context of high participation in tertiary education may clarify the mixed evidence on educational homogamy trends across countries. I apply log-linear and log-multiplicative models to analyze trends in educational assortative mating in Japan, which is characterized by a clear, widely acknowledged hierarchy of institutional selectivity. I find that the odds of homogamy are higher among graduates of selective universities than among graduates of nonselective universities. Further, assortative mating trends among graduates of selective and nonselective universities have diverged in recent years. This latter finding perhaps reflects that with the more rapid increase in the share of female students enrolled in less selective institutions, their opportunities to "marry up" have decreased. Results point to the importance of the growing heterogeneity of institutional characteristics, which was obscured in earlier studies, for understanding the impact of educational assortative mating on economic inequality.

Marriage intentions, desires, and pathways to later and less marriage in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the trend toward later and less marriage is particularly important in low-fertility societies where alternatives to marriage are limited and childbearing outside of marriage remains rare. OBJECTIVE: Our goal in this paper is to advance our understanding of the wide variety of explanations offered for later and less marriage in Japan by focusing explicitly on marriage intentions and desires. METHODS: Using two sources of nationally representative data, we describe the prevalence of positive, negative, and passive marriage intentions and desires among men and women who have never been married. We also examine socioeconomic differences in intentions, patterns of marriage desires across young adulthood, and relationships between marriage desires and outcomes. By linking three pathways to later and less marriage (rejection of marriage, failure to realize marriage desires, and unplanned drifting into singlehood) to specific theoretical frameworks, we generate indirect insights into explanations for later and less marriage. CONCLUSIONS: Although the large majority of unmarried men and women want to marry, less than half of respondents married across nine waves of the Japanese Life Course Panel Survey. Among those who remained unmarried, roughly two-thirds can be classified as 'drifting' into singlehood, about 30% as 'failing to realize marriage desires,' and no more than 5% as 'rejecting marriage.' CONTRIBUTION: By extending the small body of research on marriage intentions and desires, this study provides a framework for thinking broadly about explanations for later and less marriage in Japan and highlights the importance of both failure to realize marriage desires and unplanned drifting into singlehood.

Gene-environment Interactions and School Tracking during Secondary Education: Evidence from the U.S.

There is much evidence to suggest that family background and the context of secondary education both contribute to the formation of educational inequalities. Meanwhile, our knowledge about the role of ability in generating class differences in educational outcomes is still limited. By deploying genetic data that allow us to measure at least part of "innate" ability inherited through biological mechanisms from parents, this study examines how such abilities are associated with educational tracking outcomes among U.S. high schoolers. This study also details our understanding of the role of nature and nurture in the educational attainment processes by testing for gene-environment interactions-that is, a joint, mutually moderating effect of one's genetic potential and one's environment (e.g., family background or school context) on phenotypic outcomes (educational tracking). Using the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health that collects a unique set of demographic, educational, and genetic characteristics of students, we report the following results: First, a positive association between the genetic potential for educational attainment and taking advanced courses holds even after controlling for previous course tracking measures. Second, results provide suggestive evidence that parental SES amplifies the association between one's genetic potential for educational attainment and mathematics tracking. In contrast to the argument by some stratification scholars that places primary emphasis on the role of social background for the reproduction of educational stratification, the present findings imply that we need to fully consider the role of genetic inheritance for educational stratification in addition to social origin.

Declining association with persistent gender asymmetric structure: patterns and trends in educational assortative marriage in Japan, 1950-1979.

This paper investigates the patterns and trends of educational assortative marriage in Japan. Using data from the Employment Status Survey and the Comprehensive Survey of Living Conditions of the People on Health and Welfare, we investigated the trends of association between husbands' and wives' educational attainment (481,144 couples) by applying log-linear, log-multiplicative layer effects, and regression-type models. The analysis revealed that, in general, educational assortative marriage has decreased continuously. In terms of the log-odds ratios, the association of educational attainment between spouses for women born between 1975 and 1979 decreased by about 25%, in comparison with that of women born between 1950 and 1954. The regressiontype models showed that the pattern of association was asymmetric while patterns of change were symmetric with respect to sex. We discuss what caused the decline in educational assortative marriage with a persistent gender asymmetric structure.